Exagen (XGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $76.25M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 109.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 5.89%
• EPS Growth: 38.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 209
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Medical - Diagnostics & Research
• EPS (TTM): -0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 17,898,098
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 125,232
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 109,987
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.25
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -8.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $6.67
• Price Target Upside: 48.55% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

Exagen's stock is moderately attractive with a score of 56. Key strengths include record revenue growth and strategic advancements highlighted in the earnings call, which anticipate positive adjusted EBITDA. However, ongoing net losses, negative cash flows, and valuation challenges dampen the outlook. Improvements in financial stability and achieving profitability are critical for enhancing the stock's attractiveness.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The average selling price for AVISE CTD increased by 45% from 2022 to 2024, driven by enhancing billing, collections, and appeals processes and increasing patient payment responsibility.

Product Innovation

Exagen's AVISE CTD test leverages multiple CB-CAPs, which are biomarkers that have demonstrated sensitivity for lupus at least roughly 50% higher than most conventional markers.

Revenue Growth

XGN's AVISE CTD focused strategy has led to revenue growth of 22% and 1,300 basis points of gross margin expansion from 2022 to 2024.

Negative Factors

Market Valuation

The stock is trading below historical revenue multiples, suggesting potential upside in valuation.

Operational Challenges

XGN is expected to launch an enhanced version of its ADVISE test with 5 new markers intended to drive better Dx rates and expand the TAM.

Revenue Expectations

XGN missed 3Q revenue expectations largely due to a $1.2M one-time adjustment.

Exagen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exagen Inc. develops and commercializes various testing products based on its cell-bound complement activation products technology under the AVISE brand in the United States. It enables rheumatologists to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Its lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus that measures activation of the complement system by quantifying the level of B-cell C4d and erythrocyte bound C4d in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS, which consists of a panel of autoantibody tests that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody and associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-CarP test, which identifies RA patients with severe disease; and AVISE PC4d to measure platelet- bound C4d. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a biomarker blood test; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop novel patented biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Exagen Inc. generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary diagnostic tests, primarily the AVISE® suite of tests. These tests are designed to help physicians diagnose and manage autoimmune diseases by providing detailed biomarker information. The company's revenue model is based on a fee-for-service approach, where healthcare providers or patients are billed for each test performed. Exagen also benefits from partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, which facilitate the integration of their tests into routine clinical practice and ensure reimbursement for their services. The company's earnings are influenced by the volume of tests performed, reimbursement rates, and its ability to expand its market presence and develop new diagnostic solutions.

Exagen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Exagen shows some signs of growth in revenue and gross profit margins, but persistent net losses and negative cash flows highlight ongoing operational and liquidity challenges. Moderate leverage provides some stability, but the negative return on equity and equity ratio suggest potential risks if profitability does not improve. Overall, the company needs to focus on achieving profitability and improving cash flow management to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Exagen has experienced a positive revenue growth rate of 5.89% in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating a promising trajectory. Gross profit margin improved to 59.52%, showing efficiency in cost management. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss with a net profit margin of -27.16%, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, highlighting ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.33, reflecting a moderate level of leverage, which is a positive sign of financial stability. However, the return on equity is negative due to net losses, indicating inefficiencies in generating profits from shareholder investments. The equity ratio of 21.35% suggests a lower reliance on equity to finance assets, which may pose risks if profitability does not improve.

Cash Flow

Exagen's free cash flow improved slightly by 9.77% from 2023 to 2024, but it remains negative, posing liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unfavorable, indicating the company is struggling to convert net income into cash flow. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, reflecting continued pressures on cash flow generation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
55.64M	52.55M	45.56M	48.30M	41.98M
	Gross Profit
33.11M	29.46M	21.35M	27.71M	25.42M
	EBIT
-13.64M	-22.84M	-40.55M	-24.07M	-15.19M
	EBITDA
-11.14M	-19.15M	-43.11M	-23.10M	-13.65M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-15.12M	-23.69M	-47.39M	-26.85M	-16.69M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.04M	36.49M	62.39M	99.44M	57.45M
	Total Assets
44.69M	56.94M	86.22M	123.44M	78.38M
	Total Debt
3.18M	23.72M	34.50M	27.48M	26.66M
	Net Debt
-18.85M	-12.77M	-27.89M	-71.96M	-30.79M
	Total Liabilities
35.15M	34.25M	43.76M	38.51M	36.54M
	Stockholders Equity
9.54M	22.69M	42.46M	84.94M	41.84M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-13.79M	-15.29M	-36.46M	-22.64M	-14.54M
	Operating Cash Flow
-13.28M	-14.46M	-32.14M	-20.27M	-14.08M
	Investing Cash Flow
-515.00K	-804.00K	-4.32M	-2.42M	-455.00K
	Financing Cash Flow
-663.00K	-10.63M	-489.00K	64.68M	-97.00K

Exagen Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XGN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.17, above the 50-day MA of 3.91, and above the 200-day MA of 3.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XGN.

Exagen Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
XGN	56 Neutral	$76.25M	―	-93.78%	―	5.89%	38.12%
BNR	52 Neutral	$23.05M	―	-51.22%	―	-10.56%	41.02%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$5.19B	3.13	-40.94%	2.95%	17.94%	2.00%
MDXH	49 Neutral	$79.20M	―	-345.31%	―	28.29%	23.11%
BDSX	42 Neutral	$80.14M	―	-337.30%	―	45.30%	45.67%
SERA	39 Underperform	$128.06M	―	-55.78%	―	-74.84%	14.63%
VNRX	34 Underperform	$49.37M	―	138.92%	―	59.10%	37.59%