Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Risk Analysis

We invest in certain tax-advantaged investments that support qualified affordable housing projects, community development and renewable energy resources. Our investments in these projects are designed to generate a return primarily through the realization of federal and state income tax credits, and other tax benefits, over specified time periods. Third parties perform diligence on these investments for us on which we rely both at inception and on an ongoing basis. We are subject to the risk that previously recorded tax credits, which remain subject to recapture by taxing authorities based on compliance features required to be met at the project level, may fail to meet certain government compliance requirements and may not be able to be realized. The possible inability to realize these tax credits and other tax benefits may have a negative impact on our financial results. The risk of not being able to realize the tax credits and other tax benefits depends on many factors outside our control, including changes in the applicable tax code and the ability of the projects to be completed.

Valley regularly collects, transmits, stores and otherwise processes personal, confidential, proprietary or sensitive information regarding its customers, employees and others for whom it services loans. In some cases, this personal, confidential, proprietary or sensitive information is collected, compiled, transmitted, stored or otherwise processed by third parties on Valley's behalf. Cybersecurity risks have increased because of the proliferation of new technologies, including artificial intelligence, and the increased sophistication and activities of threat actors, including organized criminal groups, "hacktivists," terrorists, nation states, nation-state supported actors and other external parties. Many financial institutions and companies engaged in data processing have reported significant breaches in the security of their websites or other systems or networks, some of which have involved sophisticated and targeted attacks intended to obtain unauthorized access to personal, confidential, proprietary or sensitive information, destroy data, denial-of-service, or sabotage systems or networks, often through, among other things, the introduction of computer viruses or malware, social engineering attacks (including phishing attacks), credential stuffing, account takeovers and other means. In addition, there have been well-publicized "ransomware" attacks against various U.S. companies with the intent to materially disrupt their computer network and services. Globally, cybersecurity attacks are increasing in number and the attackers are increasingly organized and well-financed, or at times supported by state actors. In addition, geopolitical tensions or conflicts, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, increasing tension with China or the unfolding events in the Middle East, may create a heightened risk of cybersecurity attacks. Cybersecurity risks also may derive from fraud or malice on the part of our employees or third parties, or may result from human error, mistakes in connection with over-the-air updates, software bugs, server malfunctions, software or hardware failure or other technological failure. Such threats may be difficult to detect for long periods of time and also may be further enhanced in frequency or effectiveness through threat actors' use of artificial intelligence. Valley frequently experiences attempted cybersecurity attacks against its systems and certain attacks have been successful. Valley has also been impacted by cybersecurity breaches of its vendors' systems. There can be no assurances that Valley will not incur future breaches of our systems or be impacted by breaches of our vendors' systems, which in either case may expose the data of our customers or disrupt our services, exposing us to significant damage, ongoing operational costs and/or reputational harm. We do not control our vendors and our ability to monitor their cybersecurity is limited, and our cybersecurity diligence on key vendors may not be sufficient to prevent a failure or cybersecurity incident that may impact us or our customers. Some of our vendors may store or have access to our data and we rely on these vendors to implement information security programs commensurate with the relevant risk. We cannot, however, ensure in all circumstances that their efforts will be successful. A vulnerability in our vendors' software or systems, a failure of our vendors' safeguards, policies or procedures, or a cyber-attack or other cybersecurity incident affecting any of these third parties could harm our business. We have experienced cybersecurity incidents in the past, including the unauthorized access by a third party of certain Bank customer data resulting from our third party service providers' use of the MOVEit file transfer software in 2023. While our business has not been materially impacted by any such cybersecurity incidents, similar incidents could have a material adverse effect on our business in the future. Cybersecurity risk exposure will remain elevated or increase in the future due to, among other things, the increasing size and prominence of Valley in the financial services industry, our expansion of internet and mobile banking tools and new products based on customer needs, and the system and customer account conversions associated with the integration of merger targets. Successful attacks on us or any one of our many third-party service providers may adversely affect our business and result in the loss of, unauthorized access to or disclosure of, or the misuse or misappropriation of, our personal, confidential, proprietary or sensitive information or that of our customers. There can be no assurance that we or our third-party service providers will not suffer a cyber-attack or other cybersecurity incident that exposes us to significant damages, operational costs, litigation, regulatory enforcement, investigations, fines, sanctions or other penalties, or reputational harm.

Financial institutions are affected by changes in the economic environment, which may be impacted by changing interest rates, volatility in financial markets, and geopolitical instability or conflict. Economic conditions, financial markets and monetary policies may be adversely affected by the impact of inflationary pressures, the impact of current or anticipated fiscal and monetary policies or changes thereto, policies of the new U.S. presidential administration (including trade policies and tariffs), the potential for an economic recession, uncertainty regarding the U.S. debt ceiling, government shutdowns, or default by the U.S. government on its obligations, and actual or perceived instability in the U.S. banking system. Changes in global economic conditions and geopolitical matters, including the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, foreign currency exchange volatility, volatility in global capital markets, inflationary pressures, and higher interest rates may meaningfully impact loan production, net interest margin, the value of our securities portfolio, and the measurement of certain significant estimates such as the allowance for credit losses. Moreover, in a period of economic contraction, we may experience elevated levels of credit losses, reduced interest income, impairment of goodwill and other financial assets, diminished access to capital markets and other funding sources, and reduced demand for our products and services. Volatility in the housing markets, real estate values and unemployment levels results in significant write-downs of asset values by financial institutions. The majority of Valley's lending is in northern and central New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area and Florida. As a result of this geographic concentration, a significant broad-based deterioration in economic conditions in these areas could have a material adverse impact on the quality of Valley's loan portfolio, results of operations and future growth potential. Although inflation has slowed dramatically from the levels experienced during 2022 and 2023, possible prolonged inflationary pressures and any increases in market interest rates may cause the value of our investment securities, particularly those with longer maturities, to decrease, although this effect can be less pronounced for floating rate instruments. In addition, inflation generally increases the cost of goods and services we use in our business operations, such as electricity and other utilities, which increases our non-interest expenses. Furthermore, our customers are also affected by inflation and the rising costs of goods and services used in their households and businesses, which could have a negative impact on their deposits and/or ability to repay their loans with us. Any of these effects, if sustained, may impair our capital and liquidity positions, require us to take capital actions, prevent us from satisfying our minimum regulatory capital ratios and other supervisory requirements, or result in downgrades in our credit ratings and the reduction or elimination of our common stock dividend in future periods. The extent to which the economic environment has an impact on our business, results of operations, and financial condition, as well as the regulatory capital and liquidity ratios, will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the current economic environment and actions taken by governmental authorities and other third parties in response to geopolitical conflicts, inflationary pressure and other changes in economic and political conditions.

Our success depends, in large part, on our ability to attract, develop and retain key people. Competition for the best people in most activities in which we engage can be intense and we may not be able to hire people or retain them, in particular due to an increasingly competitive labor market. We have been impacted by an extremely competitive labor market, including increased competition for talent across all aspects of our business, as well as increased competition with non-traditional competitors, such as fintech companies. Employers are offering increased compensation and opportunities to work with greater flexibility, including remote work, on a permanent basis. These can be important factors in a current associate's decision to leave us as well as in a prospective associate's decision to join us. As competition for skilled professionals remains intense, we may have to devote significant resources to attract and retain qualified personnel, which could negatively impact earnings. The unexpected loss of services of one or more of our key personnel, including, but not limited to, the executive officers disclosed in Item 1. Business of this Report, could have a material adverse impact on our business because we would lose the employees' skills, knowledge of the market, and years of industry experience and may have difficulty promptly finding qualified replacement personnel.

Valley faces substantial competition in all areas of its operations from a variety of different competitors, many of which are larger and may have more financial resources than Valley to deal with the potential negative changes in the financial markets and regulatory landscape. Many of these competitors may have fewer regulatory constraints, broader geographic service areas, greater capital, and, in some cases, lower cost structures. Valley competes with other providers of financial services such as commercial and savings banks, savings and loan associations, credit unions, money market and mutual funds, mortgage companies, title agencies, asset managers, insurance companies, and a large list of other local, regional and national institutions which offer financial services. Additionally, the financial services industry is facing a wave of digital disruption from fintech companies and other large financial services providers. These competitors provide innovative web-based solutions to traditional retail banking services and products and tend to have stronger operating efficiencies and fewer regulatory burdens than their traditional bank counterparts, including Valley. The financial services industry is continually undergoing rapid technological change with frequent introductions of new, technology-driven products and services which increase efficiency and enable financial institutions to better serve customers and to reduce costs and with the use of artificial intelligence, including generative artificial intelligence, machine learning, and similar tools and technologies that collect, aggregate, analyze or generate data or other materials or content (collectively, "AI"). These new technologies may be superior to, or render obsolete, the technologies currently used in our products and services. Regulatory changes may continue to allow new entrants into the markets in which we operate. The result of these regulatory changes will likely cause other non-traditional financial services companies to compete directly with Valley. Many of the companies have stronger operating efficiencies and fewer regulatory burdens than their traditional bank counterparts, including Valley. Our future success depends, in part, upon our ability to address the needs of our customers by using technology to provide products and services that will satisfy customer demands, as well as to create additional efficiencies in our operations. Many customers have become more reliant on, and their expectations have increased with respect to, this technology. We may not be able to effectively implement new, technology-driven products and services or be successful in marketing these products and services to our customers and service interruptions, transaction processing errors and system conversion delays and may cause us to fail to comply with applicable laws. Many of Valley's competitors have substantially greater resources to invest in technological improvements. Valley may not be able to effectively implement new technology-driven products and services or be successful in marketing these products and services to its customers. Failure to successfully keep pace with technological change affecting the financial services industry could have a material adverse impact on Valley's business and, in turn, Valley's financial condition and results of operations. See the "Technology Risks" section below in this Item 1A for additional information regarding our risks related to technology and use of AI.