Valley National Bancorp (VLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.97B
• Dividend Yield: 3.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 9.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -1.94%
• EPS Growth: 41.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,732
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 555,426,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,194,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,026,869
• PEG Ratio: 0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.22
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.73
• 1Y Price Target: $14.95
• Price Target Upside: 19.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.26
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.25B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.00 ▲(11.55% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/28/26

The score is driven mainly by solid financial performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (margin expansion, NII growth, deposit improvement, and disciplined expenses). Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E and strong dividend yield, while technical indicators are mixed and do not strongly reinforce near-term momentum.

Positive Factors

Core deposit growth / funding improvement

Sustained core deposit growth materially strengthens Valley's funding profile, lowering reliance on costly wholesale sources and improving net interest margin durability. A larger stable deposit base supports loan originations, liquidity buffers and reduces refinancing risk across economic cycles.

NII and margin expansion guidance

Management's guidance for double-digit NII growth and modest NIM expansion reflects structural improvements in funding mix and loan mix. If realized, this drives sustainable core earnings power because Valley's business model depends on interest spread and scale of earning assets over time.

Controlled leverage and improving capital

A balanced capital structure with rising tangible equity, explicit CET1 targets and improving returns increases resilience to credit shocks and supports ongoing capital returns. Stronger capital generation enables buybacks or absorb losses without immediate dilutive capital raises.

Negative Factors

Uneven cash flow generation

Volatile operating and free cash flow reduces predictability of internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and loan growth. In periods of weaker cash flow, the bank may need to tap wholesale funding or curtail capital returns, increasing sensitivity to funding markets and cyclical earnings.

Reliance on episodic fee items

If noninterest income includes sizable one-off gains, the underlying recurring fee revenue base may be weaker than headline figures imply. This reduces revenue diversification durability and can cause earnings to be more cyclical if such episodic items diminish over subsequent quarters.

Remaining brokered and wholesale funding

Material outstanding brokered and FHLB funding creates rollover and repricing risk until replaced by core deposits. Continued dependence on non‑core funding leaves margins and liquidity exposed to market stress or higher deposit betas, challenging sustainable margin improvement.

Valley National Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Valley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. It operates through Commercial Lending, Consumer Lending, and Investment Management segments. The company offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans. It also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services, such as standby and documentary letters of credit, and related products, as well as foreign exchange transactions, documentary collections, foreign wire transfers services, and transaction accounts for non-resident aliens. In addition, the company offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts and custom -tailored investment strategies for various retirement plans. Further, it provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as owns real estate related investments. Additionally, the company offers online, mobile, and telephone banking services; and overdraft, drive-in and night deposit, automated teller machine, remote deposit capture, and safe deposit facility services. As of December 31,2021, it operated 232 branch offices in New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Alabama. The company was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Valley National Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income, which is earned from the interest on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowed funds. Key revenue streams include commercial loans, consumer loans, and mortgage loans, all of which contribute significantly to the bank's interest income. Additionally, the company earns non-interest income through fees from services such as asset management, investment advisory, and transaction fees. The bank also benefits from strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers that enhance its product offerings and customer base, contributing to its overall profitability.

Valley National Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Good earnings power with improving profitability in 2025 and a controlled leverage profile for a regional bank, but cash flow is uneven (notably weaker in 2025) and margins remain below 2021–2022 peak levels.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the last several years (notably strong growth in 2022–2023), with 2024–2025 showing more moderate but still positive growth. Profitability is solid in the most recent year (2025 net margin ~17% and improved operating profitability vs. 2024), but margins are below the stronger levels seen in 2021–2022 and have shown volatility—typical of a bank navigating changing rates/credit conditions. Overall: good earnings power with some cyclical pressure versus prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks controlled for a regional bank: debt-to-equity is roughly ~0.49 in 2024–2025, improved from the higher level in 2020, indicating a more balanced capital structure versus earlier years. Equity has grown over time, supporting asset growth, and return on equity improved in 2025 (~7.7%) from 2024 (~5.1%). The main drawback is returns remain moderate rather than standout, and total debt is higher than the 2021–2022 period, which can reduce flexibility if credit costs rise.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive in each year shown, but it is uneven: operating/free cash flow fell in 2025 (down ~24% vs. 2024) and has been choppy since 2022. Cash flow coverage metrics provided are also inconsistent year-to-year, suggesting variability in how well operating cash flow supports key obligations in certain periods. Strength: free cash flow is positive and sizable; weakness: reliability and trend are less stable than earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.49B	3.57B	3.35B	2.18B	1.49B
Gross Profit	1.88B	1.53B	1.83B	1.81B	1.33B
EBITDA	743.87M	517.35M	761.54M	860.11M	691.70M
Net Income	597.98M	380.27M	498.51M	568.85M	473.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	64.28B	62.49B	60.93B	57.46B	43.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	315.17M	2.12B	2.19B	2.21B	3.18B
Total Debt	3.43B	3.69B	3.71B	2.10B	2.42B
Total Liabilities	56.47B	55.06B	54.23B	51.06B	38.36B
Stockholders Equity	7.81B	7.44B	6.70B	6.40B	5.08B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	403.05M	548.54M	378.19M	1.43B	837.14M
Operating Cash Flow	403.05M	548.54M	378.19M	1.43B	837.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.99M	-709.28M	-3.35B	-6.79B	-1.08B
Financing Cash Flow	-548.16M	1.16B	2.91B	4.26B	964.35M

Valley National Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 12.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.24, above the 50-day MA of 12.52, and above the 200-day MA of 10.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VLY.

Valley National Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OZK	75 Outperform	$5.35B	7.63	12.09%	3.68%	2.79%	2.11%
PB	74 Outperform	$7.11B	12.03	7.09%	3.31%	0.55%	19.13%
FNB	71 Outperform	$6.09B	10.86	8.66%	2.73%	4.54%	27.56%
VLY	69 Neutral	$6.97B	10.93	7.85%	3.69%	-1.94%	41.35%
HOMB	68 Neutral	$5.47B	11.51	11.51%	2.85%	1.43%	19.58%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GBCI	67 Neutral	$5.87B	22.44	6.43%	2.89%	8.73%	26.19%

Valley National Bancorp Corporate Events

Valley National Bancorp Authorizes New Common Stock Buyback

On February 24, 2026, Valley National Bancorp announced that its board approved a new stock repurchase program authorizing buybacks of up to 25 million shares of its common stock. The new authorization will take effect on April 27, 2026, immediately after the current plan expires on April 26, 2026, and will remain in place until April 27, 2028, giving management a two-year window to execute repurchases.

Valley said buybacks may be carried out through open market purchases and Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, with the pace and scale of repurchases dependent on share price, market conditions, business outlook, and alternative investment opportunities. The plan can be suspended or discontinued at any time, providing capital management flexibility and signaling continued willingness to return excess capital to shareholders while navigating changing market and regulatory environments.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLY) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valley National Bancorp stock, see the VLY Stock Forecast page.

Valley National Bancorp Reports Record Fourth-Quarter 2025 Earnings

On January 29, 2026, Valley National Bancorp reported record fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, with net income rising to $195.4 million, or $0.33 per diluted share, up from $163.4 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $115.7 million a year earlier, as adjusted earnings and performance ratios also strengthened. The quarter was marked by improved net interest income and a 12-basis-point expansion in net interest margin to 3.17%, driven by strong non-interest-bearing deposit growth, reduced reliance on higher-cost brokered deposits, and a shift toward higher-yielding loans, alongside $863.9 million in loan growth led by commercial real estate and commercial and industrial portfolios. Credit quality metrics showed net charge-offs of $22.6 million and modest increases in non-accrual and past-due loans, while the allowance for credit losses remained stable at about 1.19% of total loans. Non-interest income grew to $76.3 million on higher capital markets, wealth management and other fee activity, offset in part by higher non-interest expenses tied to branding, seasonal and operating costs, tax credit investment amortization, and professional fees. A tax refund benefit and additional tax credit investments reduced the effective tax rate to 11.9%, contributing to stronger returns, with annualized ROA, ROE and ROTCE reaching 1.24%, 10.12% and 14.17%, respectively, and an essentially stable efficiency ratio near 53.5%, underscoring management’s focus on balance sheet growth, profitability and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLY) stock is a Hold with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valley National Bancorp stock, see the VLY Stock Forecast page.

Valley National Bancorp Appoints Carlos Vazquez to Board

On January 27, 2026, Valley National Bancorp’s board appointed Carlos Vazquez as an independent director to serve until the next annual shareholders’ meeting, also naming him to its Audit and Compensation and Human Capital Management Committees, strengthening board oversight in key governance areas. Vazquez brings decades of financial services leadership, including serving as executive vice president and chief financial officer of Popular, Inc. from 2013 to 2024 and as a board member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York, and will join Valley National’s non‑employee director compensation program, enhancing the board’s depth of banking, risk, and operational expertise without any disclosed related‑party conflicts.

The most recent analyst rating on (VLY) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Valley National Bancorp stock, see the VLY Stock Forecast page.