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Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
NASDAQ:VLY

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) AI Stock Analysis

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Valley National Bancorp

(NASDAQ:VLY)

65Neutral
Valley National Bancorp's stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The company shows reasonable financial performance with improved leverage but faces declining profitability and liquidity concerns. Technical indicators suggest cautious trading sentiment, while the valuation remains fair with a strong dividend yield. Recent earnings calls and corporate events indicate positive strategic progress, though risks remain with loan provisions and market conditions.
Positive Factors
Capital and Growth
VLY is currently trading below TBV, and there is expected upside if the bank achieves its ROA target.
Financial Metrics
The substantial discount and improved financial metrics present an opportunity, leading to an upgrade of VLY shares to Overweight.
Profitability
The catalyst is greatly improved profitability over the next 12 months expected to reach a 1% ROA.
Negative Factors
Credit and Expenses
A continued uptick in credit and elevated LLP expense likely weighs on the overall share price reaction.
Credit Trends
Near-term credit trends continue to be elevated, which likely weighs on the near-term valuation multiple.
Valuation
Risks to the stock reaching the price target include lower bank stock valuations.

Valley National Bancorp (VLY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Valley National Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionValley National Bancorp operates as the holding company for Valley National Bank that provides various commercial, retail, insurance, and wealth management financial services products. It operates through Commercial Lending, Consumer Lending, and Investment Management segments. The company offers non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposit accounts, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, residential mortgage, and automobile loans; loans secured by the cash surrender value of life insurance; home equity loans and lines of credit; and secured and unsecured other consumer loans. It also invests in various securities and interest-bearing deposits with other banks; and provides international banking services, such as standby and documentary letters of credit, and related products, as well as foreign exchange transactions, documentary collections, foreign wire transfers services, and transaction accounts for non-resident aliens. In addition, the company offers investment services for individuals and small to medium sized businesses; and trusts and custom -tailored investment strategies for various retirement plans. Further, it provides trust services, such as living and testamentary trusts, investment management, custodial and escrow services, and estate administration to individuals; tax credit advisory services; property and casualty, life, health, and title insurance agency services; and health care equipment lending and other commercial equipment leasing services, as well as owns real estate related investments. Additionally, the company offers online, mobile, and telephone banking services; and overdraft, drive-in and night deposit, automated teller machine, remote deposit capture, and safe deposit facility services. As of December 31,2021, it operated 232 branch offices in New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Alabama. The company was incorporated in 1927 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyValley National Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from its loan portfolio, which includes commercial real estate loans, residential mortgages, and consumer loans. Additionally, the bank earns money from non-interest income sources such as service charges on deposit accounts, fees from loan servicing, and income from its wealth management and insurance services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and acquisitions that enhance its product offerings and geographic reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Valley National Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Valley National Bancorp demonstrates a mixed financial performance. While revenue growth has been inconsistent and profitability metrics have declined, the balance sheet shows improved financial leverage. However, challenges remain with declining ROE and potential liquidity issues, suggesting a need for improved cash management.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Valley National Bancorp's revenue growth has been modest with a significant increase from 2021 to 2022, but a slight decline in 2023 and 2024. The gross profit margin remains strong as it equals total revenue, indicating cost efficiency. However, the net profit margin has decreased from 2023 to 2024, indicating potential profitability challenges. The absence of EBIT and EBITDA margins in 2024 provides limited insight into operational profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, reflecting reduced leverage and potentially lower financial risk. Return on equity has decreased, suggesting lower profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio indicates a stable financial structure with adequate equity backing, but the declining ROE is a concern.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow in 2024 has decreased compared to previous years, signaling reduced cash-generating ability. The free cash flow has declined as well, impacting financial flexibility. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests a decrease in cash efficiency relative to net income. Overall, the cash flow position highlights potential liquidity challenges.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.84B1.82B1.86B1.37B1.30B
Gross Profit
1.85B1.82B1.86B1.37B1.30B
EBIT
-1.62B689.20M1.10B640.74M530.07M
EBITDA
0.000.00728.87M685.20M612.33M
Net Income Common Stockholders
380.27M498.51M568.85M473.84M390.61M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.78B891.23M2.21B3.18B2.67B
Total Assets
62.49B60.93B57.46B43.45B40.69B
Total Debt
461.02M3.71B2.10B2.42B3.78B
Net Debt
49.61M2.82B1.15B369.00M2.45B
Total Liabilities
55.06B54.23B51.06B38.36B36.09B
Stockholders Equity
7.44B6.70B6.40B5.08B4.59B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
305.67M378.19M1.36B-225.80M126.92M
Operating Cash Flow
305.67M378.19M1.43B837.14M151.53M
Investing Cash Flow
-559.20M-3.35B-6.79B-1.08B-2.04B
Financing Cash Flow
337.35M2.91B4.26B964.35M2.78B

Valley National Bancorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.06
Price Trends
50DMA
9.44
Negative
100DMA
9.54
Negative
200DMA
8.75
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Negative
RSI
44.90
Neutral
STOCH
33.99
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.84, below the 50-day MA of 9.44, and above the 200-day MA of 8.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.99 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VLY.

Valley National Bancorp Risk Analysis

Valley National Bancorp disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valley National Bancorp reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Valley National Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HWHWC
75
Outperform
$4.52B9.9311.54%3.18%7.67%17.51%
ONONB
69
Neutral
$6.70B12.509.06%2.66%16.39%-13.25%
VLVLY
65
Neutral
$4.98B12.835.38%4.95%6.09%-26.94%
63
Neutral
$14.35B9.948.94%4.37%16.34%-11.76%
62
Neutral
$3.30B11.519.69%3.87%21.10%-4.20%
TMTMP
61
Neutral
$909.08M12.6810.25%3.91%41.65%668.73%
61
Neutral
$4.97B12.607.62%4.30%6.80%1.48%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
9.06
1.82
25.14%
FULT
Fulton Financial
17.94
3.25
22.12%
HWC
Hancock Whitney
52.97
10.39
24.40%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
21.35
5.75
36.86%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
63.35
17.31
37.60%
UBSI
United Bankshares
34.71
1.90
5.79%

Valley National Bancorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Jan 23, 2025 | % Change Since: -6.31% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant growth in net income, deposit services, and FX fees, alongside a reduction in CRE concentration. However, challenges included elevated loan loss provisions and nonaccrual loans. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating positive financial performance and strategic progress.
Highlights
Net Income Growth
Valley reported net income of approximately $116 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.20, compared to $98 million and $0.18 a quarter ago.
Deposit Service Revenue Increase
Deposit service revenue in the second half of 2024 was $11 million higher than the same period a year ago, representing a 27% increase.
FX Fees Growth
The annualized run rate for FX fees was $4 million higher in the second half of 2024 than the second half of 2023, representing over 50% growth.
CRE Concentration Reduction
The CRE concentration ratio was reduced to 362% from 421% a quarter ago and 474% at the end of 2023.
Net Interest Income Growth
Net interest income increased 3% from the third quarter and is now 6% higher than a year ago.
Strong Deposit Growth
Direct customer deposits grew $1.7 billion during the quarter, enabling a $2 billion reduction in higher-cost indirect deposits.
Lowlights
Elevated Loan Loss Provision
The growth in reported net income was partially offset by an elevated loan loss provision associated with higher loan charge-offs.
Nonaccrual Loans Increase
The increase in nonaccrual loans at December 31, 2024, was partially due to a few larger criticized CRE relationships.
CRE Loan Sale Loss
An $8 million loss was associated with the CRE loan sale, primarily related to transaction costs.
Company Guidance
During Valley National Bancorp's Q4 2024 earnings call, detailed guidance for 2025 was provided, highlighting several key metrics and strategic priorities. The company reported a Q4 net income of $116 million with a diluted earnings per share of $0.20, an increase from the previous quarter's $98 million and $0.18 per share. Looking ahead to 2025, Valley anticipates continued net interest income growth, ranging between 9% to 12%, driven by asset growth and improved funding costs. The bank aims to reduce its CRE concentration ratio while focusing on C&I, owner-occupied, and consumer loan originations. Deposit growth is expected to leverage specialty verticals and enhance the commercial customer base, with a focus on expanding branch deposits. Furthermore, Valley projects a significant decline in net charge-offs and provision expenses, with an ultimate goal of achieving an ROA above 1% by year-end. Additional growth in non-interest income is anticipated through expanded treasury solutions and FX capabilities, with tangible book value continuing to rise. The results also highlighted a $1.7 billion increase in transaction deposits over the past year and a 27% rise in deposit service revenue, underscoring Valley's strengthened balance sheet and strategic execution.

Valley National Bancorp Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Valley National Bancorp Appoints Eyal Efrat as Director
Neutral
Mar 13, 2025

On March 12, 2025, Valley National Bancorp appointed Eyal Efrat as a director to serve until the next annual meeting of shareholders. Mr. Efrat, an independent director, will join the Risk Committee and Cyber and Technology Sub-Committee. He brings over 25 years of experience in the Israeli financial sector, having held significant roles at Bank Leumi and Harel Insurance Investments and Financial Services Ltd. This appointment follows the resignation of Avner Mendelson, the previous designee of Bank Leumi, under the Investor Rights Agreement.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Valley National Bancorp Announces Leadership Changes
Positive
Mar 3, 2025

On March 3, 2025, Valley National Bancorp announced significant leadership changes, including the departure of Joseph V. Chillura as President of Commercial Banking, effective June 30, 2025, and the appointment of Gino Martocci as his successor, effective March 31, 2025. Martocci brings over 30 years of experience and will oversee Valley’s commercial banking operations, aiming to expand its market presence. Additionally, Travis Lan was promoted to Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately, recognizing his contributions to the bank’s strategic growth since joining in 2020. These appointments are part of Valley’s strategy to strengthen its leadership team and execute strategic priorities.

Executive/Board Changes
Valley National Bancorp Board Member Resignation
Neutral
Jan 28, 2025

On January 24, 2025, Avner Mendelson resigned from his position as a non-employee director on the board of directors of Valley National Bancorp. His resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company or its management. Bank Leumi, which initially appointed Mendelson as its designee, plans to nominate a new representative to the board.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Valley National Bancorp Reports Fourth Quarter Growth
Positive
Jan 23, 2025

Valley National Bancorp reported a net income of $115.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, showing an increase from the previous quarters. The company has made significant progress in improving its balance sheet, which includes reduced CRE loan concentration and increased loan diversity, aiming to boost profitability in 2025. Key financial changes included a 6 basis point increase in net interest margin, a decrease in total loans due to repayment and sales, and a rise in non-interest expenses driven by transformation efforts. Additionally, they saw a notable change in tax positions, resulting in a tax benefit for the fourth quarter.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.