As described under "ITEMS 1. and 2. BUSINESS AND PROPERTIES-OUR COMPREHENSIVE LIQUID FUELS STRATEGY-Regulations, Policies, and Standards Driving Low-Carbon Fuel Demand," we strategically market our low-carbon fuels based on regional policies, regulations, standards, feedstock preferences, CI scores, and our ability to obtain fuel pathways, credits, certifications, and incentives. A significant portion of our low-carbon fuels are sold in California, Canada, the U.K., and the European Union (EU).
Regarding the RFS, in June 2025, the EPA announced proposed rules (RFS Set II) that would, among other things, impose increased RVOs for 2026 and 2027, particularly with respect to biomass-based diesel, while also proposing to (i) reduce by 50 percent the number of RINs that may be generated for U.S. domestically produced renewable fuels made from foreign feedstocks, as well as for imports into the U.S. of finished renewable fuel; (ii) reduce the equivalency values for biomass-based diesel and renewable diesel produced through hydrogenation, which is used by DGD for renewable diesel and SAF production, resulting in fewer RINs generated for each gallon produced; and (iii) partially waive cellulosic biofuel volumes for 2025. In 2025, the EPA also issued decisions on hundreds of small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions that were pending, and granted full or partial exemptions on a majority of such petitions spanning RFS compliance years 2016-2024, which remain subject to ongoing litigation. As part of this action, the EPA also outlined a process for refineries granted SREs that had already retired RINs for compliance to have their RINs un-retired and returned. While RINs for compliance years prior to 2023 have expired and are expected to have little to no value, RINs for compliance years 2023 and thereafter can be used by small refineries granted SREs to update previous compliance filings, which is expected to allow up to approximately 20 percent per compliance year of a particular refinery's RINs to be carried forward into subsequent years. In September 2025, the EPA also issued a supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking for the proposed 2026 and 2027 RFS Set II rules that co-proposes to reallocate to RFS obligated parties (such as us) either 100 percent or 50 percent of the SRE exempted volumes that were granted for 2023 and 2024, as well as those projected to be granted for 2025 as part of the ongoing RFS Set II rulemaking (which would increase our 2026-2027 RVO obligations even further). While the final RFS Set II rules have not been finalized, the EPA's proposals present considerable risks that the final RFS Set II rules could require RVOs for 2026-2027 that are infeasible, significantly impact RIN prices and availability, and adversely impact both our Refining and Renewable Diesel segments. The EPA has indicated it intends to finalize these rules in the first quarter of 2026, but this may be further delayed and subject to litigation, which could also delay the 2025 RFS compliance deadlines and result in additional risks and uncertainty.
The risks and uncertainties with respect to the final RFS Set II rules are also interrelated with and compounded by U.S. tariffs impacting DGD's foreign feedstock supplies and several other low-carbon fuels policies, standards, and incentives; and vice versa. For example, for fuel produced on or after January 1, 2026, the OBBB restricts eligibility for the clean fuel production credit to fuels that are derived exclusively from feedstock that was produced or grown in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada, and important guidance with respect to certain aspects of such credits has yet to be finalized. Additionally, in June 2025, California's Office of Administrative Law approved an amendment to the LCFS that seeks to reduce the CI of California's transportation fuel pool by 30 percent by 2030 and by 90 percent by 2045 and imposes a cap on the issuance of credits for biomass-based diesel produced from soybean, canola, or sunflower oil, limiting it to 20 percent of the total credits per producer or importer, updated the model used to calculate CI, and introduced more onerous sustainability criteria for crop-based biofuels. Certain Canadian provinces have also recently imposed requirements under their low-carbon fuels standards or programs that limit the amount of imported ethanol and renewable diesel that can be claimed under the programs, and similar protectionist measures are being considered at the federal level in Canada. Further, effective January 1, 2025, the U.K. imposed additional feedstock and reporting requirements impacting SAF compared to the "Refuel EU" requirements under the EU Renewable Energy Directive. The combined effects of each of the foregoing present considerable risks and uncertainties.
We are also exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs, LCFS credits, and other credits, as described in Note 20 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. We cannot predict the future prices of such credits, which depend upon numerous factors, including (as applicable) EPA and U.S. state regulations; other U.S. and foreign laws and regulations; the events discussed above with respect to DGD's foreign feedstock supplies; the availability of such credits for purchase; transportation fuel production levels (which can vary significantly each quarter); approved CI pathways; and CI scores. The final RFS Set II rules, the ability to sell "E15" fuel year-round, and additional actions related to SREs will likely affect RIN prices, as discussed above. For example, if the RVOs for cellulosic biofuel are high relative to D3 RIN generation, RIN prices may rise, and the EPA may or may not issue cellulosic waiver credits in time to moderate price spikes, if at all. Future RVOs for biomass-based diesel also may not reflect the ongoing impacts of U.S. tariffs, the OBBB, the LCFS, and other low-carbon fuels policies, standards, and incentives on D4 RIN generation. If an insufficient number of RINs, LCFS credits, or other credits are available for purchase (or available only at unfavorable prices), or if we are otherwise unable to meet our obligations under the Renewable and Low-Carbon Fuel Programs, our business, financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity could be adversely affected. Similar events have occurred in the past and may occur again in the future.
The Renewable and Low-Carbon Fuel Programs and the U.S. federal tax incentives related to low-carbon fuels (such as the OBBB) are complex, can be subject to interpretative uncertainty, often have different or conflicting requirements or methodologies, and are frequently evolving, requiring us to periodically update our systems and controls for compliance, and imposing strains on company resources. In addition to regulation, many customers demand or prefer that the low-carbon fuels they purchase be certified through various voluntary certification bodies such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification system. While such certifications present business opportunities and can enhance product marketability, they also entail additional strains on company resources and risks from the loss or interruption of such certification, including decreased marketability of such products, as well as litigation and enforcement. These regulations, policies, and standards have a significant impact on the market prices of low-carbon fuel feedstocks and products, and in turn the margins on our low-carbon fuels. Our low-carbon fuels businesses could be materially and adversely affected if (i) such regulations, policies, and standards are adversely changed or interpreted, unavailable, or discontinued, including due to adverse changes in perceptions or sentiments regarding low-carbon fuels or the feedstocks used to produce them (e.g., "food vs. fuel" and concerns regarding international supply chains perceived as vulnerable to fraud); (ii) any of our low-carbon fuels products, or the feedstocks used in their production, do not comply therewith, or would result in reduced benefits or incentives thereunder, or (iii) we or an entity in our supply chain are unable to satisfy or maintain the conditions of any approved pathways or certifications thereunder, or under voluntary certifications. Such changes or developments could also negatively impact our low-carbon projects. Certain such events have occurred and may continue.