Vital Energy (VUX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$14.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.46K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.8
• Beta (1Y): -0.85
• Revenue Growth: 16.71%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 326
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 82,699,974
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,250
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,455
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.17 ▲(73.00% Upside)

Overall score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong operating profitability and improved leverage are offset by declining revenue and significant free-cash-flow weakness. Technicals are supportive with the price above major moving averages and positive MACD, but overbought readings (RSI 70.85, Stoch 100) temper the outlook. Valuation is a relative positive due to the low P/E (6.425).

Positive Factors

Operational efficiency

A very high EBITDA margin indicates durable operating leverage and cost efficiency across Vital Energy's projects. This sustained margin provides resilience against revenue volatility, supports internal funding for project development and technology investment, and enhances competitive positioning long-term.

Improving leverage

The reduction in debt-to-equity reflects better capital structure management, lowering interest burden and increasing financial flexibility. Improved leverage enhances the company's ability to finance new renewable projects, negotiate PPAs, and withstand cyclical shocks without immediate reliance on dilutive equity.

Diversified revenue model

Multiple, complementary revenue streams — merchant power sales, contracted PPAs, and energy management services — create recurring cash characteristics and reduce single-source risk. This structural diversification supports steadier long-term cash flows and cross-selling opportunities across residential and commercial customers.

Negative Factors

Severe free cash flow weakness

Deeply negative FCF growth and a negative FCF-to-net-income ratio point to poor cash conversion despite accounting profits. Over months, weak cash generation limits ability to fund capex, service debt, and pursue projects organically, raising financing risk and potential reliance on external capital.

Declining revenue trend

Negative revenue growth signals durable sales or execution challenges, such as project delays, pricing pressure, or demand weakness. Without reversing revenue trends, profitability gains may be unsustainable and capacity utilization for fixed-cost renewables could deteriorate, constraining long-term scale.

Erosion of profitability metrics

Declining net margin and reduced ROE reflect margin compression or capital inefficiency versus prior periods. Persisting erosion limits retained earnings for reinvestment, weakens returns to shareholders, and may indicate rising costs or lower pricing power that could constrain sustainable growth and capital deployment.

Vital Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vital Energy (VUX) is a leading provider in the renewable energy sector, specializing in the development and management of sustainable energy solutions. The company focuses on harnessing solar, wind, and energy storage technologies to deliver clean and efficient energy to both residential and commercial customers. By prioritizing innovation and sustainability, Vital Energy aims to reduce carbon footprints while providing reliable energy services.

How the Company Makes Money

Vital Energy generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling electricity produced from its renewable energy projects to utility companies and direct consumers. The company also offers energy management services, which include consulting for energy efficiency improvements and the implementation of smart grid technologies. Additionally, Vital Energy engages in power purchase agreements (PPAs) with large corporations seeking to meet their renewable energy goals, providing a stable source of income. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and local governments further enhance its capabilities and market reach, contributing significantly to its overall earnings.

Vital Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vital Energy demonstrates strong profitability with healthy margins and return on equity. However, challenges include declining revenue and negative free cash flow, which need addressing to sustain financial health.

Income Statement

Vital Energy's income statement shows a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, indicating efficient operations. However, the recent revenue decline of 7.09% in TTM suggests potential challenges in market conditions or operational issues. The net profit margin remains healthy at 21.54%, but the negative revenue growth rate is a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity is robust at 32.70%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if market conditions worsen.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a negative free cash flow, which is concerning despite a 13% growth in free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating potential cash flow constraints. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	20.38M	20.90M	14.43M	19.68M	13.49M	4.94M
Gross Profit	5.44M	7.02M	2.56M	7.19M	8.41M	2.13M
EBITDA	11.59M	12.05M	57.75K	8.78M	11.81M	-5.22M
Net Income	2.06M	4.00M	-5.37M	4.71M	8.95M	-7.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	50.86M	37.06M	29.74M	21.61M	16.28M	10.89M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.10M	1.02M	7.11M	2.10M	1.66M	713.46K
Total Debt	27.14M	15.03M	9.09M	203.26K	253.03K	3.84M
Total Liabilities	33.73M	21.48M	18.16M	4.66M	4.15M	7.70M
Stockholders Equity	17.13M	15.58M	11.58M	16.95M	12.14M	3.19M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.46M	-6.82M	-6.06M	5.11M	4.72M	-2.41M
Operating Cash Flow	10.77M	10.25M	5.86M	11.66M	8.05M	1.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.44M	-15.28M	-14.94M	-12.87M	-2.90M	-5.69M
Financing Cash Flow	11.84M	5.94M	8.90M	52.50K	-3.81M	3.84M

Vital Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VUX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.14, below the 50-day MA of 0.12, and below the 200-day MA of 0.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.21 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:VUX.

Vital Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VUX	66 Neutral	C$14.06M	6.83	12.78%	―	16.71%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BNG	47 Neutral	C$7.28M	-1.69	-16.45%	―	-32.11%	66.67%
CWV	46 Neutral	C$14.22M	-5.91	-16.40%	―	295.02%	78.28%
BDR	45 Neutral	C$9.05M	-1.46	-575.47%	―	―	-920.00%
SNV	45 Neutral	C$13.20M	-7.05	―	―	―	―
CEC	41 Neutral	C$8.46M	-2.91	-43.43%	―	―	-1150.00%

Vital Energy Corporate Events

Vital Energy Expands Grande Prairie Footprint With $6 Million Crown Land Acquisition

Vital Energy Inc. has acquired seven sections, or roughly 1,792 hectares, of Alberta Crown petroleum and natural gas rights in the Elmworth area of the Grande Prairie region for about $6 million, expanding its land position there to nine sections. The new holdings, which cover rights from the Nikanassin to the Halfway formations under a four-year licence, give the company an internally estimated inventory of up to 44 drilling locations in the Charlie Lake dolomite and siltstone reservoir and will be a key focus of its future technical, operational and capital efforts, underscoring a strategic shift toward its higher-production-potential Charlie Lake asset in the core area of the Grande Prairie region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:VUX) stock is a Hold with a C$0.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the TSE:VUX Stock Forecast page.