Thermal Energy International (TMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$32.44M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 102.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 65.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.26
• Revenue Growth: -3.45%
• EPS Growth: -104.92%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment Controls
• EPS (TTM): <0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 170,715,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 73,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 102,527
• PEG Ratio: -3.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.17 ▲(23.57% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (negative revenue growth, slightly negative profitability, and sharply deteriorating free cash flow) and a high P/E valuation. These are partially offset by strong technical momentum, with the price trading above key moving averages and a positive MACD.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue model & partnerships

A multi-stream business model (equipment sales, installation, maintenance and performance-linked contracts) creates recurring revenue and aligns payoffs with delivered savings. Strategic partnerships and government access support scaling into larger projects and steady long-term contract pipelines.

Healthy gross margins

A ~41% gross margin indicates strong unit economics and pricing power for core thermal solutions. This margin base provides room to absorb SG&A or R&D investment and improves the prospect of returning to net profitability if operating cost control and sales volumes stabilize over the medium term.

Moderate leverage on balance sheet

A debt-to-equity around 0.36 signals a conservative capital structure relative to many industrial peers. Improved leverage reduces interest burden and financial distress risk, preserving capacity to fund projects, invest in product development, or weather cyclical downturns without immediate external financing.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

Persistent negative revenue growth erodes scale and operating leverage, making it harder to cover fixed costs and invest. Prolonged top-line decline can signal competitive pressure or weakening demand in core markets and complicates any recovery of margins or cash generation over the next several quarters.

Weak cash generation

A severe drop in free cash flow and low operating-cash-to-net-income conversion indicate difficulty turning reported earnings into spendable cash. This constrains reinvestment, burdens liquidity planning, and raises reliance on external financing for working capital or growth initiatives, a structural risk if persistent.

Negative returns to shareholders

Negative ROE shows the company is not generating positive returns on invested capital, reflecting inefficiencies or losses relative to shareholder equity. Over time, sustained negative ROE can pressure capital allocation, limit ability to attract investment, and increase the risk of dilution or restructuring.

Thermal Energy International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Thermal Energy International Inc. engages in the development, engineering, and supply of pollution control products, heat recovery systems, and condensate return solutions in North America, Europe, and internationally. Its products include GEM steam traps; FLU-ACE, a direct contact condensing heat recovery system that recycles the heat lost through the boiler flue gas exhaust; DRY-REX, a low temperature biomass dryer; indirect contact heat recovery equipment; boiler economizers under the HeatSponge brand; wet and dry steam accumulators; electricity co-generation solutions; turn-key thermal energy solutions; and water treatment products and services. It serves food and beverage, pulp and paper, hospital, pharmaceutical, chemicals and petrochemicals, and other industry sectors. Thermal Energy International Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TMG generates revenue through multiple streams, including the sale of its thermal energy systems and solutions, which are tailored to meet the specific needs of various industries. Additionally, the company earns income from installation services and ongoing maintenance contracts for its systems. Strategic partnerships with key industry players and government agencies facilitate access to larger projects and funding opportunities, enhancing TMG's market presence. Furthermore, TMG may benefit from performance-based contracts, where revenue is tied to the energy savings achieved through their solutions, aligning their earnings with the success of their offerings.

Thermal Energy International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue expanded strongly over multiple years and leverage improved significantly (debt-to-equity down to ~0.36x TTM), reducing financial risk. Offsetting this, profitability has deteriorated versus 2023–2024 (gross margin down to ~41% and operating margin ~1% TTM) and cash-flow consistency remains volatile (negative operating/free cash flow in the latest annual period despite positive TTM).

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully from 2022 to 2025, with strong growth in 2023–2024 and a steadier level in 2025 (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) ~5% growth). Profitability, however, has weakened versus 2023–2024: gross margin declined (from ~48% in 2024 to ~41% in 2025), and operating margin compressed to ~1% in TTM. Net results are positive but very thin and appear volatile (TTM net margin near breakeven), indicating execution and cost pressure despite the higher revenue base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially, with debt-to-equity falling from elevated levels in 2022–2023 (above 2x, peaking near 5x in 2022) to ~0.36x in TTM, reducing financial risk. Equity has grown versus prior years, supporting a stronger capital position. The main offset is that returns on equity have come down from very strong 2023–2024 levels to a more moderate level in TTM, consistent with the recent margin compression.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed. TTM shows positive operating and free cash flow, with free cash flow roughly in line with net income, which is supportive of earnings quality. However, the most recent annual period (2025) had negative operating and free cash flow, highlighting volatility and potential working-capital swings. Overall, cash flow has improved from 2022 and remains positive on a TTM basis, but consistency is not yet established.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	―	29.78M	25.88M	21.09M	15.91M
Gross Profit	―	12.34M	12.45M	9.57M	6.73M
EBITDA	―	798.31K	2.14M	1.76M	-716.46K
Net Income	―	73.17K	929.50K	717.96K	-1.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	―	11.95M	16.79M	13.51M	9.60M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	―	2.80M	6.97M	2.81M	2.46M
Total Debt	―	1.59M	3.89M	4.73M	5.31M
Total Liabilities	―	8.38M	13.37M	11.59M	8.55M
Stockholders Equity	―	3.57M	3.46M	1.97M	1.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	―	-1.75M	5.02M	1.33M	-1.99M
Operating Cash Flow	―	-1.67M	5.40M	1.41M	-1.64M
Investing Cash Flow	―	-77.73K	-376.89K	-77.70K	-351.93K
Financing Cash Flow	―	-2.41M	-1.06M	-1.04M	357.56K

Thermal Energy International Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.15, above the 50-day MA of 0.14, and above the 200-day MA of 0.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.96 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 103.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TMG.

Thermal Energy International Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
GRN	63 Neutral	C$33.97M	14.67	10.00%	―	-30.45%	―
TMG	54 Neutral	C$32.44M	65.00	-1.51%	―	-3.45%	-104.92%
ACT	53 Neutral	C$601.02M	-27.18	-114.59%	―	-33.91%	-40.26%
WATR	45 Neutral	C$4.93M	-2.94	―	―	-68.14%	-209.09%
QST	44 Neutral	C$10.69M	-6.41	-7.42%	―	87.15%	47.74%
SHRC	42 Neutral	C$10.67M	-2.72	―	―	14.18%	-29.19%

Thermal Energy International Corporate Events

Thermal Energy International Posts Record Quarterly Revenue and Tripled EBITDA on Strong Project Execution

Thermal Energy International reported record second-quarter revenue of $10.2 million, up more than 18% year over year, driven primarily by strong performance in heat recovery projects and GEM product sales, which also delivered record gross profit and lifted gross margin to 39%. Adjusted EBITDA more than tripled to $814,000 and net income surged to $618,000, helped by improved project mix and higher margins, even as operating expenses rose due to one-time restoration costs, incentive accruals and digital investments. The company exited the quarter with $2.0 million in cash, $3.4 million in working capital and a 16% higher order backlog of $15.0 million, which had expanded further to $21.5 million by late January, while repayment of nearly all bank term debt leaves Thermal Energy with a stronger balance sheet and greater flexibility to pursue its growth plans in the energy efficiency market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TMG) stock is a Hold with a C$0.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thermal Energy International stock, see the TSE:TMG Stock Forecast page.

Thermal Energy International Sets January 27 Date for Q2 2026 Results Release and Earnings Call

Thermal Energy International Inc. will release its fiscal 2026 second-quarter financial results before markets open on January 27, 2026, followed by an earnings conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET the same day. The company will make its financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis available on SEDAR+ and its investor website, signaling continued emphasis on transparency for investors as it pursues growth in the global market for industrial energy efficiency and carbon reduction solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TMG) stock is a Hold with a C$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thermal Energy International stock, see the TSE:TMG Stock Forecast page.

Thermal Energy Elevates BEI Founder to EVP to Drive North American and European Expansion

Thermal Energy International has appointed Vincent Sands as Executive Vice President while he continues to serve as president of its wholly owned subsidiary Boilerroom Equipment Inc., a unit he founded and helped build into a consistently profitable business. In his expanded role, Sands will lead the rollout of a new indirect sales channel strategy leveraging BEI’s established network of independent manufacturers’ representatives across North America and oversee the push of BEI’s HeatSponge condensing heat recovery economizer technology into Europe, moves aimed at accelerating growth by broadening distribution of standardized products such as GEM Trap solutions and capitalizing on high energy costs and carbon-reduction priorities in European markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TMG) stock is a Hold with a C$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thermal Energy International stock, see the TSE:TMG Stock Forecast page.

Thermal Energy Secures $1.5 Million Repeat Business Order for Heat Recovery Project

Thermal Energy International has secured a $1.5 million repeat business order from a global building materials company to install four HeatSponge boiler economizers at a second site. The deal underscores the client’s trust in Thermal Energy’s technology, strengthens the company’s market presence, and sets the stage for potential collaborations in other facilities for energy efficiency and emissions reduction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TMG) stock is a Hold with a C$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thermal Energy International stock, see the TSE:TMG Stock Forecast page.

Thermal Energy Secures $3.2 Million Heat Recovery Order

Thermal Energy International has secured a $3.2 million turnkey heat recovery order from a leading multinational frozen food company, marking their second project with this client. This order highlights Thermal Energy’s growing influence in the food and beverage sector, which is committed to reducing carbon emissions. The project is expected to be completed within twelve months and reflects the company’s ability to provide high-impact sustainability solutions, potentially enhancing their market position and offering significant financial and environmental benefits to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TMG) stock is a Hold with a C$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thermal Energy International stock, see the TSE:TMG Stock Forecast page.

Thermal Energy International Grants Stock Options to Enhance Management Incentives

Thermal Energy International Inc. has announced the grant of 3,334,000 stock options to its officers and directors as part of its remuneration and incentive program. This move is expected to align the interests of the management with those of the shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s operational dynamics and market positioning positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TMG) stock is a Hold with a C$0.12 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Thermal Energy International stock, see the TSE:TMG Stock Forecast page.

Thermal Energy Secures Major Arctic Heat Recovery Project

Thermal Energy International Inc. has secured a $1.6 million order to supply eight custom-engineered HeatSponge heat recovery units to a remote Arctic mining operation. This project, one of the largest in Boilerroom Equipment Inc.’s history, highlights the company’s innovative engineering capabilities and logistical expertise, as the units must withstand extreme conditions and be transported via standard cargo aircraft. The project demonstrates Thermal Energy’s strategic focus on large-scale opportunities and its commitment to solving complex energy challenges in demanding environments.

Thermal Energy Secures $1.5 Million in Repeat Business from Global Nutrition Company

Thermal Energy International Inc. has secured $1.5 million in orders for two turnkey heat recovery projects from a global nutrition company, marking the seventh and eighth projects with this client. This new business highlights Thermal Energy’s ongoing relationship with the multinational, having generated approximately $13.6 million in business since 2019, and underscores the company’s growth potential in energy efficiency and carbon reduction initiatives across multiple sites worldwide.