TAG Oil (TAO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$26.04M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 147.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 257.86%
• EPS Growth: 57.88%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 12
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 226,461,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 225,489
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 147,364
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.90
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.12 ▲(31.11% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by very weak operating performance (deep losses and ongoing cash burn), partially offset by a low-leverage balance sheet. Technicals are supportive in the near term, but overbought indicators add risk, and valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

Very low debt-to-equity provides durable financial flexibility: it reduces insolvency risk during oil-price cycles, supports continued exploration/development funding, and preserves optionality for asset purchases or joint ventures without immediate reliance on costly external financing.

Equity sizeable versus total assets

A sizable equity base relative to assets gives a capital buffer that can absorb operating losses and fund near-term activity. This structural cushion supports longer runway for upstream projects and makes the company a more viable partner for JV or farm‑out arrangements.

Reduction in net loss versus prior annual period

A smaller net loss year-over-year suggests operational or cost improvements that, if sustained, can slow cash burn and extend runway. Continued improvement in losses is a durable sign the company may be moving toward breakeven and better capital allocation discipline.

Negative Factors

Deep negative profitability and negative gross profit

Negative gross profit indicates core upstream operations are not covering direct costs, a structurally unsustainable position. Persistently unprofitable production will erode equity, prevent reinvestment, and necessitate recurring external funding or asset sales to sustain operations.

Ongoing cash burn; negative operating and free cash flow

Negative operating and free cash flow mean the business consumes cash to run and invest. Over months this increases reliance on the balance sheet or new capital, raising dilution and refinancing risk, and limiting the company's ability to fund exploration, development, or respond to downturns.

Small, volatile revenue base; revenue down materially TTM

A small, volatile revenue base undermines scaling and margin recovery: inconsistent sales magnify cash-flow variability, complicate long‑term planning, and increase sensitivity to commodity and production timing, making sustained profitability and financing more difficult.

TAG Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp. and changed its name to TAG Oil Ltd. in June 2002. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TAG Oil generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its production to domestic and international markets, capitalizing on fluctuations in oil and gas prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales of oil and gas, as well as any potential royalty payments from production agreements. Additionally, TAG Oil may engage in strategic partnerships with other companies in the energy sector to optimize resource extraction and explore new opportunities, which can further enhance its revenue through collaborative projects or joint ventures.

TAG Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial health is weak: the income statement shows deeply negative profitability with negative gross profit and large losses versus revenue, and cash flow is negative with continued free cash flow burn. The main offset is a relatively strong balance sheet with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.03), providing some financial flexibility despite negative ROE.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a very weak profitability profile: gross profit is negative and losses remain large (net loss of about 2.9x revenue), implying the business is still far from generating economic margins. Revenue is small and volatile, with TTM revenue down materially versus the prior annual period, and margins are deeply negative across the income statement. The main positive is that the net loss is smaller than the prior annual net loss, but overall operating performance remains highly challenged.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength: leverage is low with debt-to-equity around 0.03 in both TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and the latest annual period, and equity remains sizable versus total assets. However, returns are negative (ROE is negative in both TTM and annual), indicating the company is consuming shareholder capital rather than compounding it. In short: financially flexible, but not currently earning its cost of capital.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is negative and free cash flow is deeply negative, with free cash flow deterioration versus the prior period. The cash flow profile suggests ongoing cash burn to support operations and investment, increasing reliance on the balance sheet over time if conditions do not improve. A partial offset is that free cash flow has been less negative than net income in some periods, but absolute cash burn remains the key issue.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50M	864.00K	781.33K	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-1.38M	-1.01M	-1.00M	-164.00K	-122.00K	-235.00K
EBITDA	-6.86M	-8.28M	-9.01M	-7.39M	-3.85M	-3.45M
Net Income	-4.41M	-6.33M	-8.20M	-3.00M	-4.46M	-14.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.47M	55.09M	53.91M	41.06M	18.20M	20.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.95M	7.40M	16.44M	20.66M	15.52M	17.14M
Total Debt	1.13M	1.49M	208.00K	459.00K	573.00K	98.00K
Total Liabilities	2.43M	5.74M	7.43M	2.04M	979.00K	505.00K
Stockholders Equity	45.04M	49.35M	46.48M	39.01M	17.23M	20.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-11.46M	-23.88M	-22.88M	-11.94M	-4.11M	-4.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.94M	-5.98M	-3.90M	-5.46M	-4.08M	-3.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-515.00K	-17.14M	-17.28M	-4.42M	1.33M	3.68M
Financing Cash Flow	5.47M	5.54M	17.00M	23.57M	-55.00K	-24.72M

TAG Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TAO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.10, above the 50-day MA of 0.09, and below the 200-day MA of 0.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.83 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TAO.

TAG Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
WIL	48 Neutral	C$30.09M	-10.18	-276.15%	―	-3.67%	-26.40%
TAO	47 Neutral	C$26.04M	-5.90	-10.11%	―	257.86%	57.88%
AVN	47 Neutral	C$26.45M	-6.08	-15.60%	―	―	68.98%
CWV	46 Neutral	C$15.16M	-6.30	-16.40%	―	295.02%	78.28%
DME	42 Neutral	C$24.97M	-10.40	-6.13%	―	-82.16%	70.07%
PEI	41 Neutral	C$16.16M	-2.13	―	―	-0.63%	-47.75%

TAG Oil Corporate Events

TAG Oil Announces AGM Results and Strategic Decisions

TAG Oil Ltd. announced the results of its 2025 annual general meeting, where shareholders voted to fix the number of directors at five and elected all proposed nominees. Deloitte LLP was appointed as the auditor for the upcoming year, and the company’s incentive stock option plan was approved, allowing the issuance of up to 10% of the company’s outstanding common shares. These decisions are expected to support TAG Oil’s strategic operations and enhance its governance framework, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TAO) stock is a Sell with a C$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TAG Oil stock, see the TSE:TAO Stock Forecast page.

TAG Oil Reports Q3 2025 Financials and Announces Leadership Change

TAG Oil Ltd. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a decrease in cash and working capital compared to the previous quarter, with no debt. The company is actively seeking an industry partner to enhance drilling activities at the Badr Oil Field and is progressing with agreements for the development of the unconventional ARF reservoir in Egypt. Additionally, TAG Oil announced the appointment of Doug Urch as Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Barry MacNeil, to further strengthen its financial leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TAO) stock is a Sell with a C$0.08 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TAG Oil stock, see the TSE:TAO Stock Forecast page.

TAG Oil Partners with ICP Securities for Enhanced Market Making Services

TAG Oil Ltd. has engaged ICP Securities Inc. to provide automated market making services using its proprietary algorithm, ICP Premium™, in compliance with TSX Venture Exchange policies. This agreement, starting November 24, 2025, aims to enhance liquidity and quote health for TAG Oil’s securities, potentially impacting its market presence and stakeholder interests positively.

TAG Oil Reveals Promising Volumetric Assessment in Egypt’s Abu Roash ‘F’ Formation

TAG Oil has announced the results of an independent volumetric assessment of the Abu Roash ‘F’ formation in the Southeast Ras Qattara concession in Egypt. The assessment estimates 3.2 billion barrels of oil-initially-in-place, highlighting the potential for unconventional development. TAG Oil plans to use additional seismic and geological data to validate these estimates and assess the production potential, which could significantly impact the company’s operations and industry positioning.

TAG Oil Extends BED-1 Evaluation and Strengthens Egyptian Operations

TAG Oil has extended its evaluation period for the BED-1 concession in collaboration with Badr Petroleum Company, committing to drill two additional wells by October 2028. This extension, along with the recent Southeast Ras Qattara acquisition, enhances TAG Oil’s strategic position in Egypt, supporting its expansion and operational growth in the region.