TAG Oil (TAO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$21.51M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 147.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.54
• Revenue Growth: 257.86%
• EPS Growth: 57.88%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 12
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 226,461,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 225,489
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 147,364
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.90
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.01
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$15.10M

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.09 ▼(-1.11% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is primarily held back by very weak operating performance and cash flow (losses and ongoing cash burn). A low-leverage balance sheet provides some offset by improving financial flexibility, while technicals are neutral-to-slightly improving and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

Debt-to-equity near 0.03 provides durable financial flexibility: low interest burden and capacity to fund exploration or sustain operations without immediate external financing. This preserves runway over months and reduces refinancing risk while management pursues asset development.

Historic revenue growth metric

A reported revenue growth metric reflects the company's ability to generate episodic top-line gains from asset activity. For an upstream E&P, such intermittent growth episodes show capacity to scale production or monetise assets, offering structural upside when operations progress.

Upstream E&P business model with asset optionality

A pure upstream exploration and development model delivers asymmetric long-term value: successful discoveries or development can rapidly convert into production cash flow. Joint arrangements and subsidiary structures can share risk and concentrate capital on high-return projects.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative cash flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow indicate ongoing cash burn to support operations and investment. Over a multi-month horizon this elevates reliance on the balance sheet or external capital, increasing dilution or financing risk if exploration fails to produce cash.

Deep negative profitability

Very negative margins and net losses well above revenue show the business is not covering costs. Without structural margin improvement or production scale-up, the company will continue consuming shareholder capital and cannot sustainably compound returns.

Small, volatile revenue base

A small and volatile revenue base reduces predictability of cash flow and makes planning capital-intensive E&P activities harder. It increases sensitivity to single-asset outcomes and raises the probability that setbacks will force financing or project delays.

TAG Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp. and changed its name to TAG Oil Ltd. in June 2002. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

TAG Oil generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its production to domestic and international markets, capitalizing on fluctuations in oil and gas prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales of oil and gas, as well as any potential royalty payments from production agreements. Additionally, TAG Oil may engage in strategic partnerships with other companies in the energy sector to optimize resource extraction and explore new opportunities, which can further enhance its revenue through collaborative projects or joint ventures.

TAG Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak due to deeply negative profitability and ongoing cash burn (very low Income Statement and Cash Flow scores). The main offset is a relatively strong balance sheet with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.03), providing financial runway despite negative returns on equity.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show a very weak profitability profile: gross profit is negative and losses remain large (net loss of about 2.9x revenue), implying the business is still far from generating economic margins. Revenue is small and volatile, with TTM revenue down materially versus the prior annual period, and margins are deeply negative across the income statement. The main positive is that the net loss is smaller than the prior annual net loss, but overall operating performance remains highly challenged.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength: leverage is low with debt-to-equity around 0.03 in both TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and the latest annual period, and equity remains sizable versus total assets. However, returns are negative (ROE is negative in both TTM and annual), indicating the company is consuming shareholder capital rather than compounding it. In short: financially flexible, but not currently earning its cost of capital.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is negative and free cash flow is deeply negative, with free cash flow deterioration versus the prior period. The cash flow profile suggests ongoing cash burn to support operations and investment, increasing reliance on the balance sheet over time if conditions do not improve. A partial offset is that free cash flow has been less negative than net income in some periods, but absolute cash burn remains the key issue.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Jun 2023	Mar 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50M	864.00K	781.33K	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-1.38M	-1.01M	-1.00M	-164.00K	-122.00K	-235.00K
EBITDA	-6.86M	-8.28M	-9.01M	-7.39M	-3.85M	-3.45M
Net Income	-4.41M	-6.33M	-8.20M	-3.00M	-4.46M	-14.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.47M	55.09M	53.91M	41.06M	18.20M	20.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.95M	7.40M	16.44M	20.66M	15.52M	17.14M
Total Debt	1.13M	1.49M	208.00K	459.00K	573.00K	98.00K
Total Liabilities	2.43M	5.74M	7.43M	2.04M	979.00K	505.00K
Stockholders Equity	45.04M	49.35M	46.48M	39.01M	17.23M	20.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-11.46M	-23.88M	-22.88M	-11.94M	-4.11M	-4.10M
Operating Cash Flow	-5.94M	-5.98M	-3.90M	-5.46M	-4.08M	-3.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-515.00K	-17.14M	-17.28M	-4.42M	1.33M	3.68M
Financing Cash Flow	5.47M	5.54M	17.00M	23.57M	-55.00K	-24.72M

TAG Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.09
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TAO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.09, below the 50-day MA of 0.10, and below the 200-day MA of 0.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 100.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TAO.

TAG Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DME	56 Neutral	C$37.93M	-32.08	-3.80%	―	-82.16%	70.07%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
CWV	50 Neutral	C$13.49M	-1.71	-36.60%	―	295.02%	78.28%
TAO	48 Neutral	C$21.51M	-6.10	-9.44%	―	257.86%	57.88%
WIL	48 Neutral	C$29.32M	-18.53	-276.15%	―	-3.67%	-26.40%
AVN	47 Neutral	C$47.48M	-10.79	-15.82%	―	―	68.98%
PEI	41 Neutral	C$18.92M	-2.26	―	―	-0.63%	-47.75%

TAG Oil Corporate Events

TAG Oil Grants 11.85 Million Stock Options to Support Egypt Growth Strategy

TAG Oil Ltd. has granted 11,850,000 stock options at C$0.10 per share to directors, officers, and personnel under its stock option plan, with a five-year term and vesting over two years. The move forms part of the company’s long-term incentive program designed to align management and staff with shareholders, incentivize performance, and support its drilling and development initiatives in Egypt, signaling continued commitment to its regional growth strategy.

By tying compensation more closely to equity performance, TAG Oil aims to reinforce internal focus on executing its operational and strategic objectives in the Middle East and North Africa. This incentive structure may help retain key talent and strengthen the company’s ability to advance its exploration and development activities in a competitive oil and gas market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TAO) stock is a Hold with a C$0.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TAG Oil stock, see the TSE:TAO Stock Forecast page.

TAG Oil Raises $11.5 Million to Accelerate Unconventional Oil Development in Egypt

TAG Oil has raised $11.5 million in gross proceeds through a brokered unit offering priced at $0.10, including the full exercise of the over-allotment option, split between a listed issuer financing exemption tranche and a private placement. Each unit comprises one common share and a warrant exercisable at $0.13 until 2030, with a portion subscribed by company insiders under related-party exemptions.

The company plans to deploy the funds to accelerate unconventional appraisal and development at its BED-1 and Southeast Ras Qattara concessions in Egypt, including drilling a new vertical delineation well in the Abu Roash F play and conducting a DFIT, plus an additional well at SERQ. The financing strengthens TAG Oil’s capital position to advance its Western Desert resource plays, though the transaction remains subject to final TSX Venture Exchange approval and includes broker compensation via cash commissions and broker warrants.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TAO) stock is a Hold with a C$0.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TAG Oil stock, see the TSE:TAO Stock Forecast page.