Sigma Lithium (SGML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $767.85M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 43.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.21
• Revenue Growth: 11.53%
• EPS Growth: -154.63%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 589
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 111,281,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 43,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 43,056
• PEG Ratio: -0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -28.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $21.21
• Price Target Upside: 207.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▲(1.60%Upside)

Sigma Lithium's overall stock score reflects its growth potential and operational efficiency, as highlighted in its earnings call. However, financial performance challenges, bearish technical indicators, and unappealing valuation metrics weigh heavily on its score.

Positive Factors

Financial Flexibility

Sigma seems to have ample financial flexibility.

Production and Sales

Sigma has impressively ramped up production, with 4Q24 preliminary results indicating a run-rate of 300ktpa – above the 2025 production target of 270ktpa.

Valuation and Risk

Favorable valuation and more upside risk vs downside risk in lithium pricing.

Negative Factors

Earnings and Performance

Q4 adjusted EBITDA missed consensus estimates, primarily due to lower than expected sales prices and production volumes.

Liquidity and Development

Still awaiting bank guarantee for a US$100M BNDES loan, which is crucial for the next phase of development.

Price Expectations

The 2025 EBITDA falls significantly from previous expectations due to lower realized pricing and reduced Phase 2 volumes.

Sigma Lithium Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sigma Lithium (SGML) is a leading company in the lithium mining industry, focusing on the sustainable extraction and production of high-purity lithium for the global electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage markets. The company operates primarily in Brazil, where it manages large-scale lithium deposits, leveraging advanced technologies to minimize environmental impact and enhance efficiency in its operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Sigma Lithium makes money through the extraction and sale of lithium concentrate, which is a critical raw material for the production of lithium-ion batteries. The company's revenue model is based on long-term supply agreements with manufacturers in the EV and energy storage sectors who require a consistent and reliable supply of high-quality lithium. Key revenue streams include the sale of lithium concentrate to battery manufacturers and automotive companies. Strategic partnerships with technology and automotive firms also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations ensure a steady demand for Sigma Lithium's products. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainable mining practices and eco-friendly production processes enhances its appeal to environmentally-conscious investors and partners, further bolstering its financial performance.

Sigma Lithium Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sigma Lithium shows a positive revenue trajectory with increasing revenues but faces profitability challenges. High debt levels and negative cash flows indicate financial risks, although there are strategic investments for growth.

Income Statement

Sigma Lithium shows a positive revenue trajectory, increasing from $0 in 2022 to $208.7M in 2024. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income margins over the years. The gross profit margin improved in 2023 but declined significantly in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, increasing from 0.02 in 2022 to 1.91 in 2024, which suggests elevated financial leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased, impacting the equity ratio. However, the increase in total assets indicates potential growth, although it is accompanied by rising liabilities.

Cash Flow

Sigma Lithium's cash flow shows negative free cash flow, signaling ongoing cash burn. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting operational losses. Despite this, investing and financing activities suggest the company is investing in growth and securing financing to support operations.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
208.75M	181.23M	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
44.27M	88.90M	-102.00K	-57.61K	-59.15K
	EBIT
-6.19M	-21.63M	-121.20M	-31.93M	-1.60M
	EBITDA
-32.27M	-4.91M	-126.68M	-31.99M	-1.57M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-69.98M	-38.25M	-132.10M	-34.21M	-1.99M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
66.05M	64.40M	96.35M	154.31M	13.54M
	Total Assets
470.56M	487.24M	308.91M	193.78M	33.20M
	Total Debt
254.31M	176.63M	3.67M	514.52K	5.14M
	Net Debt
188.26M	112.23M	-92.69M	-153.79M	-8.40M
	Total Liabilities
337.73M	272.95M	125.80M	8.72M	11.44M
	Stockholders Equity
132.83M	214.28M	183.11M	185.06M	21.76M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-47.42M	-76.57M	-133.09M	-22.86M	-3.77M
	Operating Cash Flow
-24.35M	-30.79M	-5.44M	-4.26M	-2.42M
	Investing Cash Flow
-32.56M	-82.22M	-132.53M	-18.60M	-2.38M
	Financing Cash Flow
72.12M	77.83M	79.79M	165.15M	17.62M

Sigma Lithium Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.89
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SGML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.27, below the 50-day MA of 9.30, and below the 200-day MA of 15.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SGML.

Sigma Lithium Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SGML	54 Neutral	$767.85M	―	-30.69%	―	11.53%	-154.63%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.03B	-1.27	-21.09%	4.14%	2.90%	-30.49%
SLI	50 Neutral	C$506.43M	3.62	61.89%	―	―	-132.80%
LAC	49 Neutral	C$794.62M	―	-8.91%	―	―	―
FL	42 Neutral	C$116.29M	―	-82.26%	―	―	25.32%
LITH	41 Neutral	C$126.04M	19.74	11.66%	―	―	-7.56%
LTH	30 Underperform	C$84.85M	―	-1139.82%	―	―	60.89%

Sigma Lithium Corporate Events

Sigma Lithium Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Production and Cost Efficiency Gains

Sigma Lithium reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a net income of $4.7 million and significant improvements in production and cost efficiency. The company achieved a 26% year-on-year increase in lithium concentrate production and a 17% increase in sales volumes. With production costs below target and uncommitted production, Sigma Lithium has the potential to secure financing through prepayment and offtake agreements, supporting the construction of Plant 2 and enhancing financial flexibility. These developments underscore Sigma Lithium’s strategic focus on cash generation and operational efficiency, reinforcing its long-term resilience and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SGML) stock is a Buy with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sigma Lithium stock, see the TSE:SGML Stock Forecast page.

Sigma Lithium Surpasses Q1 Targets, Strengthens Community Ties in Brazil

Sigma Lithium announced a strong first quarter in 2025, surpassing production targets with a 26% increase over the previous year and achieving a 24% EBITDA margin. The company has received significant community and governmental support in Brazil, contributing to regional prosperity through job creation and social programs.

Sigma Lithium to Announce Q1 2025 Results, Maintains Strong Production

Sigma Lithium announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 14, 2025, after market close, with a conference call scheduled for the following day. The company maintained its production target of over 68,000 tonnes in the first quarter, underscoring its operational strength and positioning as a major player in the lithium industry.

Sigma Lithium Achieves 1Q25 Production Target, Maintains Strong Cash Flow

Sigma Lithium announced it has achieved its first-quarter 2025 production target, delivering 68,000 tonnes of Quintuple Zero Green Lithium, maintaining cash generation and costs in line with guidance. The company has successfully shipped and sold a total of 76,000 tonnes to International Resource Holdings, indicating strong demand and stable cash flow, which supports its resilience in the current lithium price environment.

Sigma Lithium Reports Strong 2024 Results and Plans for Expansion

Sigma Lithium reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighted by robust operating margins and record production levels. The company achieved significant cost reductions and strengthened its commercial strategy to align with market trends. With the construction of a second Greentech Industrial Plant underway, Sigma Lithium is poised to double its production capacity by 2025, positioning itself for sustainable long-term growth in the lithium industry.