Sigma Lithium (SGML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$773.41M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 59.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.24
• Revenue Growth: 11.53%
• EPS Growth: -154.63%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 589
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 71
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 111,281,980
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 86,281
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 59,325
• PEG Ratio: -0.79
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -28.17
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$20.51
• Price Target Upside: 166.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▼(-9.09%Downside)

Sigma Lithium's overall score reflects its growth potential amidst operational and financial challenges. Financial performance is hindered by profitability and debt issues, while technical indicators suggest bearish trends. However, recent corporate achievements and strategic positioning provide optimism for long-term growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Flexibility

Sigma seems to have ample financial flexibility.

Production Performance

Sigma has impressively ramped up production, with 4Q24 preliminary results indicating a run-rate of 300ktpa – above the 2025 production target of 270ktpa.

Valuation and Pricing

Favorable valuation and more upside risk vs downside risk in lithium pricing.

Negative Factors

2025 EBITDA Forecast

The 2025 EBITDA falls significantly from previous expectations due to lower realized pricing and reduced Phase 2 volumes.

Development Financing

Still awaiting bank guarantee for a US$100M BNDES loan, which is crucial for the next phase of development.

EBITDA Performance

Q4 adjusted EBITDA missed consensus estimates, primarily due to lower than expected sales prices and production volumes.

Sigma Lithium Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sigma Lithium Corporation engages in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. It holds 100% interest in the Grota do Cirilo, Genipapo, Santa Clara, and São José properties comprising 27 mineral rights covering an area of approximately 191 square kilometers located in the Araçuaí and Itinga regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The company was formerly known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation and changed its name to Sigma Lithium Corporation in July 2021. Sigma Lithium Corporation is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Sigma Lithium makes money through the extraction and sale of lithium concentrate, which is a critical raw material for the production of lithium-ion batteries. The company's revenue model is based on long-term supply agreements with manufacturers in the EV and energy storage sectors who require a consistent and reliable supply of high-quality lithium. Key revenue streams include the sale of lithium concentrate to battery manufacturers and automotive companies. Strategic partnerships with technology and automotive firms also contribute to its earnings, as these collaborations ensure a steady demand for Sigma Lithium's products. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainable mining practices and eco-friendly production processes enhances its appeal to environmentally-conscious investors and partners, further bolstering its financial performance.

Sigma Lithium Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Sigma Lithium is experiencing revenue growth, increasing from $0 to $208.7M between 2022 and 2024, but struggles with profitability due to negative EBIT and net income margins. The company's high debt-to-equity ratio and negative cash flow highlight financial risks, although strategic investments suggest a focus on long-term growth.

Income Statement

Sigma Lithium shows a positive revenue trajectory, increasing from $0 in 2022 to $208.7M in 2024. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income margins over the years. The gross profit margin improved in 2023 but declined significantly in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, increasing from 0.02 in 2022 to 1.91 in 2024, which suggests elevated financial leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased, impacting the equity ratio. However, the increase in total assets indicates potential growth, although it is accompanied by rising liabilities.

Cash Flow

Sigma Lithium's cash flow shows negative free cash flow, signaling ongoing cash burn. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting operational losses. Despite this, investing and financing activities suggest the company is investing in growth and securing financing to support operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	206.01M	208.75M	181.23M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	45.50M	44.27M	88.90M	-102.00K	-57.61K	-59.15K
EBITDA	-19.13M	-32.27M	-4.91M	-126.68M	-31.99M	-1.57M
Net Income	-56.02M	-69.98M	-38.25M	-132.10M	-34.21M	-1.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	348.31M	470.56M	487.24M	308.91M	193.78M	33.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.11M	66.05M	64.40M	96.35M	154.31M	13.54M
Total Debt	171.79M	254.31M	176.63M	3.67M	514.52K	5.14M
Total Liabilities	242.22M	337.73M	272.95M	125.80M	8.72M	11.44M
Stockholders Equity	106.09M	132.83M	214.28M	183.11M	185.06M	21.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-30.42M	-47.42M	-76.57M	-133.09M	-22.86M	-3.77M
Operating Cash Flow	-11.14M	-24.35M	-30.79M	-5.44M	-4.26M	-2.42M
Investing Cash Flow	-31.83M	-32.56M	-82.22M	-132.53M	-18.60M	-2.38M
Financing Cash Flow	-44.67M	72.12M	77.83M	79.79M	165.15M	17.62M

Sigma Lithium Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SGML, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.80, below the 50-day MA of 8.09, and below the 200-day MA of 14.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SGML.

Sigma Lithium Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	62 Neutral	$10.15B	9.75	-0.17%	2.87%	2.22%	-32.49%
SLI	50 Neutral	C$613.68M	4.27	61.89%	―	―	-132.80%
LAC	49 Neutral	C$781.49M	―	-8.91%	―	―	―
SGML	46 Neutral	C$773.41M	―	-30.69%	―	11.53%	-154.63%
FL	42 Neutral	C$120.85M	―	-82.26%	―	―	25.32%
LITH	41 Neutral	C$130.18M	20.71	11.66%	―	―	-7.56%
LTH	30 Underperform	C$92.20M	―	-1139.82%	―	―	60.89%

Sigma Lithium Corporate Events

Sigma Lithium Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results with Production and Cost Efficiency Gains

Sigma Lithium reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a net income of $4.7 million and significant improvements in production and cost efficiency. The company achieved a 26% year-on-year increase in lithium concentrate production and a 17% increase in sales volumes. With production costs below target and uncommitted production, Sigma Lithium has the potential to secure financing through prepayment and offtake agreements, supporting the construction of Plant 2 and enhancing financial flexibility. These developments underscore Sigma Lithium’s strategic focus on cash generation and operational efficiency, reinforcing its long-term resilience and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SGML) stock is a Buy with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sigma Lithium stock, see the TSE:SGML Stock Forecast page.

Sigma Lithium Surpasses Q1 Targets, Strengthens Community Ties in Brazil

Sigma Lithium announced a strong first quarter in 2025, surpassing production targets with a 26% increase over the previous year and achieving a 24% EBITDA margin. The company has received significant community and governmental support in Brazil, contributing to regional prosperity through job creation and social programs.

Sigma Lithium to Announce Q1 2025 Results, Maintains Strong Production

Sigma Lithium announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 14, 2025, after market close, with a conference call scheduled for the following day. The company maintained its production target of over 68,000 tonnes in the first quarter, underscoring its operational strength and positioning as a major player in the lithium industry.