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Sigma Lithium (TSE:SGML)
:SGML
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Sigma Lithium
(NASDAQ:SGML)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
C$9.50
▲(5.56% Upside)
Positive Factors
Analyst Confidence
Analyst reiterates an outperform rating and maintains a target price of US$18, indicating confidence in the stock's potential.
Financial Flexibility
Sigma seems to have ample financial flexibility.
Resource and Reserve Estimates
Updated 43-101 report shows a significant increase in both resource and reserve estimates, enhancing the company's asset base.
Negative Factors
Liquidity Needs
The company plans to sell some of its future sales ahead for prepayment to cover any near-term liquidity needs.
Loan and Development
Still awaiting bank guarantee for a US$100M BNDES loan, which is crucial for the next phase of development.
Q4 Earnings
Q4 adjusted EBITDA missed consensus estimates, primarily due to lower than expected sales prices and production volumes.
Sigma Lithium (SGML) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
$984.85M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)82.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.60
Revenue Growth-25.68%
EPS Growth-637.02%
CountryCA
Employees589
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength56
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.24
Shares Outstanding111,281,980
10 Day Avg. Volume101,716
30 Day Avg. Volume82,419
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-46.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.10Price Target Upside45.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Sigma Lithium Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSigma Lithium Corporation engages in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil. It holds 100% interest in the Grota do Cirilo, Genipapo, Santa Clara, and São José properties comprising 27 mineral rights covering an area of approximately 191 square kilometers located in the Araçuaí and Itinga regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The company was formerly known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation and changed its name to Sigma Lithium Corporation in July 2021. Sigma Lithium Corporation is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
How the Company Makes MoneySigma Lithium generates revenue primarily through the sale of lithium concentrate, which is essential for the production of lithium-ion batteries. The company has established strategic partnerships with battery manufacturers and electric vehicle producers, ensuring a steady demand for its products. Additionally, Sigma Lithium benefits from favorable market conditions driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and the global push for sustainable energy solutions. The company's revenue model is further supported by its focus on operational efficiency and cost management, which enhances its profit margins.
Sigma Lithium Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 15, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 16.88%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted Sigma Lithium's strong production performance, cost reductions, and strategic financial management. However, challenges in inventory management, delayed offtake agreements, and market volatility were notable concerns. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic positioning and operational resilience underscore a cautiously optimistic outlook.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production and Safety Milestone
Sigma achieved a production scale on track to meet the guidance of 270,000 tonnes of lithium oxide concentrate and celebrated 2 years without accidents with lost time, maintaining a TIRFR of 1.92, among the lowest in the metals and mining industry.
Significant Cost Reduction
Operating costs decreased by 4% year-on-year to $348 per tonne, CIF cash cost for China ports decreased by 14% to $442 per tonne, and all-in sustaining costs dropped by 24% to $594 per tonne.
Deleveraging and Financial Discipline
Short-term finance debt reduced by 57% year-over-year and by 15% versus the previous quarter, with continued reliance on diversified funding sources.
Strategic Commercial Flexibility
Provisional pricing strategy allows Sigma to benefit from lithium market price recoveries, with potential positive adjustments in subsequent quarters.
Expansion Plans and Funding
Progress in Phase 2 expansion, aiming for 120,000 tonnes of LCE capacity by 2027, supported by diverse funding sources including $100 million subsidized government debt from BNDES.
Negative Updates
Inventory Management Challenges
Temporary warehousing of 28,000 tonnes due to market volatility, impacting immediate sales and requiring normalization in subsequent quarters.
Delayed Offtake Agreements
Ongoing negotiations for offtake agreements with prepayments have not yet been finalized, despite expectations of earlier completion.
Lithium Market Volatility
Significant market fluctuations driven by sentiment and futures market dynamics, affecting pricing stability and predictability.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Sigma Lithium provided robust guidance, emphasizing their operational excellence and financial discipline. The company is on track to meet its annual production guidance of 270,000 tonnes of lithium oxide concentrate, equating to approximately 40,000 tonnes of LCE, with a 70% recovery rate achieved at their Greentech industrial plant. Sigma highlighted their cost leadership, with plant gate costs reduced by 4% year-over-year to $348 per tonne and CIF cash costs for China ports, including royalties, down by 14% to $442 per tonne. The all-in sustaining costs dropped significantly by 24% to $594 per tonne. Short-term finance debt was reduced by 57% compared to the previous year, showcasing their deleveraging strategy. The company also navigated market volatility by leveraging provisional pricing contracts, with final sales recently executed at $966 per tonne, and expects positive price adjustments in the upcoming quarters. Sigma's strategic focus remains on maintaining low costs and ensuring operational resilience, while they continue to expand through diversified funding sources and ongoing negotiations for long-term offtake agreements coupled with prepayments.Sigma Lithium Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Sigma Lithium shows a positive revenue trajectory, increasing from $0 in 2022 to $208.7M in 2024. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income margins over the years. The gross profit margin improved in 2023 but declined significantly in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating operational challenges. The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting elevated financial leverage. Cash flow issues persist, but strategic investments and financing efforts indicate a focus on long-term growth.Income Statement
Sigma Lithium shows a positive revenue trajectory, increasing from $0 in 2022 to $208.7M in 2024. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income margins over the years. The gross profit margin improved in 2023 but declined significantly in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain negative, indicating operational challenges.55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, increasing from 0.02 in 2022 to 1.91 in 2024, which suggests elevated financial leverage. Stockholders' equity has decreased, impacting the equity ratio. However, the increase in total assets indicates potential growth, although it is accompanied by rising liabilities.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Sigma Lithium's cash flow shows negative free cash flow, signaling ongoing cash burn. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting operational losses. Despite this, investing and financing activities suggest the company is investing in growth and securing financing to support operations.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 208.75M | 181.23M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 44.27M | 88.90M | -102.00K | -57.61K | -59.15K |
| EBITDA | -32.27M | -4.91M | -126.68M | -31.99M | -1.57M |
| Net Income | -69.98M | -38.25M | -132.10M | -34.21M | -1.99M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 470.56M | 487.24M | 308.91M | 193.78M | 33.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.05M | 64.40M | 96.35M | 154.31M | 13.54M |
| Total Debt | 254.31M | 176.63M | 3.67M | 514.52K | 5.14M |
| Total Liabilities | 337.73M | 272.95M | 125.80M | 8.72M | 11.44M |
| Stockholders Equity | 132.83M | 214.28M | 183.11M | 185.06M | 21.76M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -47.42M | -76.57M | -133.09M | -22.86M | -3.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -24.35M | -30.79M | -5.44M | -4.26M | -2.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.56M | -82.22M | -132.53M | -18.60M | -2.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 72.12M | 77.83M | 79.79M | 165.15M | 17.62M |
Sigma Lithium Technical Analysis
Positive
9.00
Price Trends
7.67
Positive
9.07
Negative
13.12
Negative
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
56.76
Neutral
52.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SGML, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.33, above the 50-day MA of 7.67, and below the 200-day MA of 13.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SGML.
Sigma Lithium Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
58 Neutral | $984.85M | ― | -42.91% | ― | -25.68% | -637.02% | |
50 Neutral | C$814.26M | 5.53 | 61.89% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | C$927.89M | -8.64 | -0.02% | 2.70% | 23.29% | -43.30% | |
42 Neutral | C$114.01M | ― | -416.82% | ― | ― | 22.82% | |
41 Neutral | C$126.04M | 19.74 | 11.66% | ― | ― | 71.67% | |
30 Underperform | C$122.41M | ― | -1139.82% | ― | ― | 50.62% | |
| ― | $699.72M | ― | -8.20% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:SGML
Sigma Lithium
9.00
-5.08
-36.08%
TSE:FL
Frontier Lithium
0.50
-0.07
-12.28%
TSE:LITH
Lithium Chile Inc
0.61
0.12
24.49%
TSE:SLI
Standard Lithium Ltd
3.79
2.23
142.95%
TSE:LTH
Lithium Ionic Corp
0.71
0.08
12.70%
LAC
Lithium Americas Corp.
2.81
0.29
11.51%
Sigma Lithium Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Sigma Lithium Achieves Production Targets Amid Strategic Sales Withholding
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025
Sigma Lithium reported a 38% year-on-year increase in lithium oxide concentrate production for the second quarter of 2025, achieving 68,368 tonnes, slightly above their target. Despite a 62% decrease in sales revenue due to a strategic decision to withhold product amid price volatility, the company maintained low operating costs and advanced its plant expansion to double capacity, reinforcing its position in the lithium industry.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SGML) stock is a Buy with a C$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sigma Lithium stock, see the TSE:SGML Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sigma Lithium Streamlines Leadership and Announces Shareholder Meeting Results
Positive
Aug 8, 2025
Sigma Lithium has streamlined its leadership structure by consolidating key roles under experienced Vice Presidents, enhancing operational focus and coordination. This reorganization includes the appointment of Felipe Peres as the sole Chief Financial Officer and Anna Hartley as Head of Investor and Global Banking Relations. Additionally, the company announced the results of its annual shareholder meeting, with all management nominees elected and Grant Thornton LLP appointed as auditor. Sigma Lithium is on track to produce 270,000 tons of lithium in 2025, further solidifying its position as a major player in the lithium industry.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SGML) stock is a Buy with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sigma Lithium stock, see the TSE:SGML Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.