OceanaGold (OGC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$9.14B
• Dividend Yield: 0.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 935.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.2
• Beta (1Y): 2.21
• Revenue Growth: 51.00%
• EPS Growth: 532.40%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,146
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 225,121,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,004,758
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 935,919
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$64.62
• Price Target Upside: 59.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.90B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$47.00 ▲(15.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid earnings and cash flow improvement and low leverage). This is tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD despite oversold readings), while valuation is supportive due to a low P/E but only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strengthening cash generation

Sustained, materially higher operating and free cash flows through 2024–2025 signal durable internal funding for sustaining/growth capex, debt servicing, and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion improves strategic optionality and reduces reliance on external financing across commodity cycles.

Conservative balance sheet / low leverage

Very low leverage and rising equity capitalization provide long-term financial flexibility to fund projects, absorb commodity shocks, and pursue M&A or exploration without forcing distress asset sales. A conservative balance sheet supports resilience across downturns.

Consistent revenue and profit recovery

Multi-year revenue growth paired with a sharp rise in net income reflects operational execution and margin expansion. This trend supports sustainable earnings quality and reinvestment capacity, reducing structural downside versus prior loss-making years.

Negative Factors

Commodity-price sensitivity

Core revenue and profitability hinge on gold (and copper) prices. Structural exposure to commodity cycles makes long-term cash flows and margins highly sensitive to metal price swings, complicating forecasting and capital allocation decisions across multi-year cycles.

Choppy free cash flow / capital intensity

Mining’s high sustaining and development capex has produced uneven free cash flow historically. Structural capital intensity means FCF can swing materially year-to-year, limiting predictability for dividends, buybacks, or aggressive growth investments during weaker cycles.

Earnings volatility / past losses

The firm’s track-record of losses during downturns underscores persistent operational and price-driven volatility. Such episodic negative earnings can impair long-term return consistency, heighten refinancing risk in weak cycles, and pressure ROE and investment plans.

OceanaGold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

OceanaGold Corporation, a gold producer, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company operates the Didipio gold-copper mine located in the Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino provinces on the island of Luzon in the Philippines; the Macraes goldfield mine on the South Island of New Zealand and the Waihi gold mine on the North Island of New Zealand; and the Haile gold mine located in South Carolina, the United States. OceanaGold Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in South Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

OceanaGold primarily makes money by producing and selling refined gold (and, at certain operations, copper by-product) generated from ore mined and processed at its operating sites. Revenue is recognized largely from the sale of produced metal into commodity markets, with realized prices driven by prevailing gold (and copper) market prices and the company’s sales arrangements (e.g., spot or contract-based pricing, and any hedging, if used). Key revenue streams include: (1) gold sales: the core driver of revenue, based on ounces produced, recovered, and sold; (2) copper by-product sales (where applicable): supplemental revenue tied to copper production volumes and prices; and (3) any other mining-related income that may arise from treatment/refining arrangements, penalties/credits based on concentrate quality, or similar commercial terms (company-specific details depend on contract structure). Profitability is influenced by production volumes, grades and recoveries, operating costs (mining, processing, labor, energy, consumables), sustaining and growth capital spending, royalties and production taxes where applicable, and foreign exchange movements. Significant factors contributing to earnings typically include the operating performance and cost profile of its mines, the timing and success of development/permitting for growth projects, and metal price movements; specific partnerships or offtake counterparties are not available in the prompt and are therefore null.

OceanaGold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year recovery with accelerating revenue growth and a sharp step-up in net income by 2025, supported by a low-leverage balance sheet and surging operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025. Main risk is commodity-cycle volatility given historical swings in profitability and free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly from 2023–2025 (2025: ~15% growth on top of 2024’s ~26%), and profitability has improved materially, with net income rising from ~$83M (2023) to ~$187M (2024) and then to ~$640M (2025). Margins were solid in 2023–2024 (gross margin ~51–54%, net margin ~8–14%), and the earnings trajectory shows a clear turnaround from losses in 2020–2021. Key weakness is cyclicality/volatility: the company posted sizable losses in 2020 and a small loss in 2021, highlighting sensitivity to commodity/operating conditions.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed with low leverage: debt-to-equity was very low in 2024 (~0.04) and improved versus 2021–2023 levels. Equity has grown meaningfully (to ~$2.26B in 2025 from ~$1.82B in 2024), alongside a higher asset base, indicating strengthening capitalization. Return on equity improved from negative in 2020–2021 to positive in 2022–2024, though it remains somewhat uneven year-to-year (reflecting earnings volatility).

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened sharply: operating cash flow increased from ~$384M (2023) to ~$594M (2024) and then to ~$1.00B (2025), while free cash flow jumped to ~$551M in 2025 (up ~29% vs. 2024). Cash flow has generally covered accounting earnings in 2022–2024 (operating cash flow was ~1.2–1.9x net income), supporting earnings quality. Weaknesses include historically choppy free cash flow (notably minimal in 2023 and negative in 2020–2021), suggesting capital intensity and potential variability through cycles.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.93B	1.29B	1.03B	967.40M	744.70M
Gross Profit	896.83M	693.50M	527.50M	461.00M	420.50M
EBITDA	1.01B	577.00M	408.40M	361.20M	308.10M
Net Income	639.71M	187.40M	83.10M	132.60M	-3.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.42B	2.61B	2.55B	2.38B	2.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	475.63M	193.38M	61.70M	84.02M	131.75M
Total Debt	80.15M	71.56M	230.13M	255.89M	367.41M
Total Liabilities	1.06B	681.59M	829.19M	688.59M	774.35M
Stockholders Equity	2.26B	1.82B	1.72B	1.69B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	550.88M	213.70M	34.30M	87.00M	-63.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.00B	593.90M	384.20M	368.70M	261.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-449.23M	-348.70M	-341.80M	-280.80M	-315.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-259.57M	-120.50M	-57.80M	-130.20M	25.10M

OceanaGold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 40.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OGC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 40.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.25, below the 50-day MA of 49.54, and above the 200-day MA of 33.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.01 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:OGC.

OceanaGold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OGC	73 Outperform	C$9.14B	10.22	30.82%	0.42%	51.00%	532.40%
ELD	67 Neutral	$8.53B	14.13	12.40%	―	44.88%	38.67%
OR	67 Neutral	$8.46B	31.70	14.47%	0.55%	37.22%	―
NGD	65 Neutral	C$9.32B	10.07	22.38%	―	48.70%	1718.41%
ARTG	62 Neutral	C$7.55B	24.10	28.16%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
BTO	58 Neutral	$7.24B	14.58	12.15%	1.71%	34.31%	―

OceanaGold Corporate Events

OceanaGold Extends Mine Lives and Shifts Haile to Underground as 2025 Reserves Updated

OceanaGold reported year-end 2025 mineral reserves of 5.83 million ounces of gold, measured and indicated resources of 8.63 million ounces, and inferred resources of 2.5 million ounces, supported by a higher gold price assumption of $2,200 per ounce for reserves and $2,450 per ounce for resources. The company plans to boost exploration spending by 50% to $60 million in 2026, underscoring its strategy of organic growth across its portfolio.

At Haile, the company has converted the final Ledbetter open pit phase into an underground mine, declaring an initial 0.44 million-ounce underground reserve that removes lower-margin open pit ounces, improves net present value, and extends site mine life to 2036. This shift, combined with ongoing open pit mining and Palomino Underground’s planned 2028 start, is expected to deliver a more sustainable and de‑risked production profile averaging 210,000 ounces annually from 2027 to 2031.

Macraes has leveraged the higher reserve gold price to make previously marginal open pits economic, adding cutbacks at Innes Mills, Coronation, Coronation North, and Golden Bar that extend mine life to 2032 alongside Golden Point Underground. At Wharekirauponga, OceanaGold added 0.16 million ounces of inferred resources and plans significant resource conversion and growth drilling in 2026, while updated NI 43‑101 technical reports for Haile, Macraes, and Didipio will provide reserve-based life-of-mine plans and cost frameworks in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

OceanaGold Posts Record Free Cash Flow, Ups 2026 Output and Payouts

OceanaGold reported that 2025 gold production reached 497,600 ounces, slightly above guidance mid-point, with all-in sustaining costs of $1,966 per ounce and record quarterly and annual financial performance. The miner ended the year debt-free with $477 million in cash, generated record free cash flow of $543 million, and completed $175 million of share repurchases while securing final permits for the Waihi North project and preparing for a New York Stock Exchange listing.

For 2026 the company guides to 12% gold production growth to 520,000–590,000 ounces, led by Haile, alongside a 7% reduction in all-in sustaining costs to $1,750–$1,900 per ounce. Reflecting stronger cash generation, the board has tripled the quarterly dividend to $0.09 per share and doubled the 2026 share buyback authorization to up to $350 million, implying potentially higher capital returns and an enhanced market profile for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

OceanaGold Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results

OceanaGold has announced that it will publish its operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, after market close on February 18, 2026, with the full results available on its website. Senior management will discuss the performance and outlook in a conference call and webcast on February 19, 2026, signalling continued engagement with investors and other stakeholders as the company updates the market on its cash flow generation, operational progress and portfolio of four operating mines across the U.S., New Zealand and the Philippines.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.