Chatham Rock Phosphate (NZP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 26.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.28
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 46.46%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 112,247,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,463
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,239
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.05 ▲(12.50% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (no revenue, continued losses, and negative operating/free cash flow). Technicals are neutral-to-soft and valuation signals are limited by a negative P/E with no dividend support. Offsetting factors include a low-debt balance sheet and a set of positive corporate developments (asset sale/strategic stake and partnership discussions), though these are not yet reflected in profitability or cash generation.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet

Very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.002) provides structural financial flexibility, lowering solvency and interest risks. This allows management to pursue project development and partner negotiations with less pressure from creditors, supporting runway and optionality over months.

Improving Loss and Cash‑Burn Trends

Reported narrowing losses and reduced cash burn versus prior years indicate operational progress in cost control and capital preservation. If sustained, this reduces the cadence and magnitude of future financings and improves probability of reaching development milestones over the next 2–6 months.

Constructive Strategic / Corporate Developments

An asset sale linked to a 20% stake in a downstream DCP/MCP plant and a non‑binding term sheet for a project stake are structural moves to de‑risk the project. These can deliver processing access, partner expertise or funding, materially advancing commercialization prospects if executed.

Negative Factors

No Revenue / Structurally Unprofitable

The company reports no revenue and persistent net losses, so the core business model has not been commercially validated. Without sustainable sales, scalability, margin durability, and long‑term viability remain speculative and dependent on future project execution.

Weak Cash Generation (Negative OCF/FCF)

Trailing‑twelve‑month operating cash flow and free cash flow are meaningfully negative, signaling ongoing cash consumption. Continued negative cash generation erodes equity, limits ability to fund development, and increases reliance on external financing, raising execution risk.

Dependence on External Capital / Small Recent Financing

A modest recent placement highlights dependence on external funding to sustain operations. Recurring small financings imply dilution risk and fundraising pressure; absent committed strategic capital, management may face resource constraints that slow project timelines and execution.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited operates as a junior mineral development company. The company focuses on the development and exploitation of the Chatham Rise rock phosphate deposit, which comprises a mining permit covering an area of 820 square kilometers located to the east of Christchurch, New Zealand; and international phosphate projects. It also explores for phosphate on the French Polynesian island of Makatea. The company is based in Wellington, New Zealand.

How the Company Makes Money

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited generates revenue through the extraction and sale of rock phosphate. The company targets agricultural sectors that require phosphate for fertilizer production, positioning its product as a sustainable and locally sourced alternative. Revenue is primarily derived from the sale of extracted phosphate to domestic and international markets. Additionally, Chatham Rock Phosphate may engage in partnerships with agricultural and fertilizer companies to secure long-term supply agreements, which can stabilize and enhance its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as phosphate market prices, extraction costs, and regulatory approvals for mining operations.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals are very weak: TTM shows no revenue, negative gross/operating profit, a net loss (~-0.74M), and continued cash burn (TTM OCF ~-0.55M; FCF ~-0.67M). Positives are a very low-leverage balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.002) and improving loss/cash-burn trends versus prior years, but the business remains structurally unprofitable and not self-funding.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show no revenue and continued losses (net income of about -0.74M), with negative gross profit and negative operating earnings. While the loss has narrowed versus the prior annual periods (e.g., net loss improved from roughly -1.18M in FY2025 and -1.47M in FY2024), the company still lacks meaningful sales and remains structurally unprofitable, which is a major earnings-quality and scalability concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears conservatively financed, with very low debt versus equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (debt-to-equity ~0.002) and sizable equity relative to total assets. However, returns remain negative (TTM return on equity around -11.5%), reflecting ongoing losses that can erode capital over time even with low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow around -0.55M and free cash flow around -0.67M, indicating continued cash burn. Cash outflow has improved versus prior annual periods (operating cash flow was about -1.14M in FY2025 and -1.52M in FY2024), but TTM free cash flow growth is sharply negative, and the business is still not self-funding.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	412.00	5.33K	5.20K
Gross Profit	-30.63K	-33.92K	-37.52K	-3.65K	2.16K	5.20K
EBITDA	-777.21K	-1.22M	-1.44M	-1.52M	-1.03M	-569.50K
Net Income	-740.03K	-1.18M	-1.47M	-1.77M	-1.03M	-572.94K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.87M	6.88M	6.96M	7.85M	8.13M	5.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.61K	35.21K	110.17K	820.38K	1.37M	378.87K
Total Debt	13.90K	29.41K	57.73K	87.05K	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	587.59K	400.13K	408.34K	578.82K	1.05M	85.41K
Stockholders Equity	6.28M	6.48M	6.55M	7.27M	7.08M	5.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-665.49K	-1.27M	-1.67M	-1.59M	-888.38K	-840.37K
Operating Cash Flow	-547.39K	-1.14M	-1.52M	-1.50M	-802.87K	-767.55K
Investing Cash Flow	-96.45K	-109.41K	-155.29K	-94.05K	-164.50K	-72.83K
Financing Cash Flow	639.70K	1.18M	1.02M	1.11M	2.01M	1.17M

Chatham Rock Phosphate Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.04
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NZP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.04, below the 50-day MA of 0.04, and below the 200-day MA of 0.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -55.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NZP.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NZP	48 Neutral	C$5.05M	-6.62	-11.26%	―	―	46.46%
GCOM	48 Neutral	C$11.02M	-1.50	-90.84%	―	―	-252.46%
GQ	44 Neutral	C$4.17M	-1.27	-9999.00%	―	―	-17.96%

Chatham Rock Phosphate Corporate Events

Chatham Rock Phosphate Raises CAD $158,150 in Non-Brokered Placement

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited has closed a previously announced non-brokered private placement, issuing 3,162,995 units at CAD $0.05 per unit for gross proceeds of CAD $158,150. Each unit comprises one common share and one transferable share purchase warrant exercisable at CAD $0.12 for 12 months, with an acceleration clause if the stock trades above CAD $0.20 for 20 consecutive days, and all underlying securities are subject to a hold period until April 24, 2026. The financing, which remains subject to final TSX Venture Exchange approval and carried no finder’s fees, will be used for general working capital, and included participation by company insiders treated as a related-party transaction under Canadian securities rules, though exempt from formal valuation and minority approval requirements because it did not exceed 25% of Chatham Rock’s market capitalization.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Sells Avenir Makatea and Secures Stake in New Australian DCP/MCP Plant

Chatham Rock Phosphate has agreed to sell its wholly owned Australian subsidiary Avenir Makatea Pty Ltd to Austure Industries for AU$1.4 million, comprising AU$900,000 in staged cash payments over two years and a 20% stake in a new Austure subsidiary, Austure Phosphate AU Pty Ltd, which will build a DCP/MCP manufacturing plant in Cloncurry. The deal integrates Chatham’s Korella North rock phosphate as feedstock for an innovative, low-capex, modular plant that uses electricity rather than sulphuric acid to produce phosphoric acid, enabling domestic manufacture of feed phosphates in a market currently reliant on imports and facing high prices and supply constraints, particularly from China. The green process can use low-grade tailings from Korella North and produces a usable silica by-product, which, combined with proximity to northern Australian cattle markets, is expected to lower costs versus imports and bolster Australia’s sovereign capability in critical livestock nutrition inputs, while giving Chatham an ongoing strategic interest via its equity stake and board representation in the new venture.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Grants Stock Options to Directors

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited has announced the granting of stock options to its directors, allowing them to purchase a total of 8,750,000 common shares at a price of CAD$0.054 per share. This move is part of the company’s Stock Option Plan and is expected to align the interests of the directors with those of the shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s governance and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Advances Potential Stake Sale in Chatham Rise Project

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited has entered into a non-binding term sheet with an interested party to potentially acquire up to a 75% stake in the Chatham Rise Phosphate project through an earn-in program. This development marks a significant step for the company, as it aims to secure the necessary capital and partnerships to advance the project, potentially transforming its operational and financial landscape.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Concludes 2025 AGM with Key Approvals

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited successfully concluded its 2025 Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders, with all management-recommended matters ratified. Key outcomes included the re-election of the board of directors, the re-appointment of Grant Thornton as auditors, and the approval of an amended Stock Option Plan, indicating strong shareholder support and strategic continuity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.

Chatham Rock Phosphate to Sell Subsidiary and Invest in Innovative Phosphate Plant

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited has entered into a non-binding agreement to sell its subsidiary, Avenir Makatea Pty Ltd, to Austure Pty Ltd for AU$ 1.4 million. This deal includes a cash payment and a 20% stake in a new DCP/MCP manufacturing plant in Cloncurry, Australia. The plant will utilize Austure’s innovative technology to produce Dicalcium and Monocalcium phosphate, essential for cattle nutrition in Northern Australia. This development addresses previous challenges faced by Chatham in establishing a viable plant, such as scale and reliance on sulfuric acid, by using a novel green process that reduces costs and environmental impact. The agreement is expected to enhance Chatham’s market position by providing a local supply of phosphate products, potentially undercutting imported competitors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.