Chatham Rock Phosphate (NZP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$6.92M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 26.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.19
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 46.46%
• Country: CA
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 115,410,770
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,463
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 26,239
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.06 ▲(47.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/05/26

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (pre-revenue, ongoing losses, and negative free cash flow despite some improvement) and limited valuation support (negative P/E and no dividend). Technicals are a partial offset with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, but overbought signals (high RSI and Stoch) temper the near-term outlook.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / clean balance sheet

A near-zero debt position reduces bankruptcy and interest-rate risk for a capital-intensive explorer. Conserved leverage gives management runway to advance the Chatham Rise project or raise project financing on more favorable terms, preserving strategic optionality over months.

Improving cash-burn trajectory

Sequential improvement in operating and free cash flow shows management is reducing cash burn and improving cost control. While absolute cash flow remains negative, a narrowing deficit lowers near-term financing pressure and supports a more durable path to project development.

Clear project focus in fertilizer market

A focused asset strategy targeting phosphate nodules aligns directly with global fertilizer demand and gives the company a defined development roadmap. This concentration clarifies capital allocation, permits specialized technical planning, and supports long-term commercial value if permits and economics align.

Negative Factors

Pre-revenue operations

No operating revenue means the business has yet to validate commercial economics or scale. Over 2-6 months this maintains dependency on external financing and keeps fundamental valuation and operational sustainability unproven for the core phosphate project.

Persistent net losses

Ongoing net losses erode equity and demonstrate the project has not reached profitable operations. Continued negative profitability pressures reserves, increases the probability of future capital raises, and risks dilution that can impair long-term shareholder value.

Weak cash generation and funding reliance

Negative operating and free cash flow force reliance on capital markets or partners to fund exploration and development. For a mineral developer, repeated external funding needs raise execution and dilution risk and can delay project milestones over the medium term.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited operates as a junior mineral development company. The company focuses on the development and exploitation of the Chatham Rise rock phosphate deposit, which comprises a mining permit covering an area of 820 square kilometers located to the east of Christchurch, New Zealand; and international phosphate projects. It also explores for phosphate on the French Polynesian island of Makatea. The company is based in Wellington, New Zealand.

How the Company Makes Money

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Chatham Rock Phosphate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are weak overall: the company is pre-revenue with persistent operating and net losses, and cash flow remains negative with ongoing free-cash-flow burn. Positives include improving loss/cash-burn versus the prior year and a clean balance sheet with minimal debt, but continued losses create sustainability and dilution/funding risk.

Income Statement

The company remains pre-revenue (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is 0) with persistent operating losses (TTM EBIT of about -0.97M and net loss of about -0.90M). Losses have improved versus the prior annual period (net loss narrowed from ~-1.18M in 2025 annual), but profitability is still materially negative and the business has not yet demonstrated a scalable revenue engine.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered, with very low to zero reported debt across periods (TTM total debt is 0; prior annual debt was small) and a solid equity base (~6.24M TTM). The key weakness is ongoing value erosion from losses, reflected in negative returns on equity (TTM roughly -14%), which can pressure equity over time if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains weak with ongoing cash burn: TTM operating cash flow is about -0.41M and TTM free cash flow about -0.53M. Cash burn has improved versus the 2025 annual period (operating cash flow was ~-1.14M and free cash flow ~-1.27M), but free cash flow growth is sharply negative in TTM (around -20%), and the company is still reliant on funding sources outside of internally generated cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Mar 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	412.00	5.33K	5.20K
Gross Profit	-25.31K	-33.92K	-37.52K	-3.65K	2.16K	5.20K
EBITDA	-962.96K	-1.22M	-1.44M	-1.52M	-1.03M	-569.50K
Net Income	-902.01K	-1.18M	-1.47M	-1.77M	-1.03M	-572.94K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.81M	6.88M	6.96M	7.85M	8.13M	5.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.44K	35.21K	110.17K	820.38K	1.37M	378.87K
Total Debt	0.00	29.41K	57.73K	87.05K	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	525.38K	400.13K	408.34K	578.82K	1.05M	85.41K
Stockholders Equity	6.24M	6.48M	6.55M	7.27M	7.08M	5.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-532.36K	-1.27M	-1.67M	-1.59M	-888.38K	-840.37K
Operating Cash Flow	-414.26K	-1.14M	-1.52M	-1.50M	-802.87K	-767.55K
Investing Cash Flow	-104.06K	-109.41K	-155.29K	-94.05K	-164.50K	-72.83K
Financing Cash Flow	545.32K	1.18M	1.02M	1.11M	2.01M	1.17M

Chatham Rock Phosphate Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NZP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, below the 50-day MA of 0.05, and below the 200-day MA of 0.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.51 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 133.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NZP.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
GCOM	48 Neutral	C$6.20M	-23.41	-157.18%	―	―	-252.46%
NZP	47 Neutral	C$6.92M	-2.45	-11.26%	―	―	46.46%

Chatham Rock Phosphate Corporate Events

Chatham Rock Phosphate Raises CAD $158,150 in Non-Brokered Placement

Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited has closed a previously announced non-brokered private placement, issuing 3,162,995 units at CAD $0.05 per unit for gross proceeds of CAD $158,150. Each unit comprises one common share and one transferable share purchase warrant exercisable at CAD $0.12 for 12 months, with an acceleration clause if the stock trades above CAD $0.20 for 20 consecutive days, and all underlying securities are subject to a hold period until April 24, 2026. The financing, which remains subject to final TSX Venture Exchange approval and carried no finder’s fees, will be used for general working capital, and included participation by company insiders treated as a related-party transaction under Canadian securities rules, though exempt from formal valuation and minority approval requirements because it did not exceed 25% of Chatham Rock’s market capitalization.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.

Chatham Rock Phosphate Sells Avenir Makatea and Secures Stake in New Australian DCP/MCP Plant

Chatham Rock Phosphate has agreed to sell its wholly owned Australian subsidiary Avenir Makatea Pty Ltd to Austure Industries for AU$1.4 million, comprising AU$900,000 in staged cash payments over two years and a 20% stake in a new Austure subsidiary, Austure Phosphate AU Pty Ltd, which will build a DCP/MCP manufacturing plant in Cloncurry. The deal integrates Chatham’s Korella North rock phosphate as feedstock for an innovative, low-capex, modular plant that uses electricity rather than sulphuric acid to produce phosphoric acid, enabling domestic manufacture of feed phosphates in a market currently reliant on imports and facing high prices and supply constraints, particularly from China. The green process can use low-grade tailings from Korella North and produces a usable silica by-product, which, combined with proximity to northern Australian cattle markets, is expected to lower costs versus imports and bolster Australia’s sovereign capability in critical livestock nutrition inputs, while giving Chatham an ongoing strategic interest via its equity stake and board representation in the new venture.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NZP) stock is a Buy with a C$0.34 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Chatham Rock Phosphate stock, see the TSE:NZP Stock Forecast page.