NFI Group Inc (NFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 383.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 14.40%
• EPS Growth: -1117.18%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 8,876
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 119,099,945
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 251,504
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 383,334
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$23.50
• Price Target Upside: 30.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$4.30B

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: C$19.00 ▲(5.15% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is driven primarily by improving cash generation and better liquidity/leverage trends, supported by a strong backlog and management guidance for continued growth. These positives are offset by weak profitability, high leverage/declining equity, and bearish technical momentum, with the battery-recall warranty provision a key near-term overhang.

Positive Factors

Backlog & Order Momentum

A USD 13.2B, 15,606-unit backlog with 108.5% LTM book-to-bill and 71.8% option conversion gives multi-quarter revenue visibility. This de-risks near-term throughput, supports production planning, and underpins future aftermarket revenue as delivered fleets enter service.

Improved Cash Generation

Material cash-flow improvement (operating C.F. ~177M; FCF ~142M) strengthened liquidity and reduced immediate refinancing need. Sustained positive FCF supports self-funding of working capital and capex, improving resilience versus prior years of negative cash flow.

Manufacturing & Aftermarket Growth

Higher deliveries (+14% YoY) and a manufacturing EBITDA uplift indicate improving production cadence and pricing. Combined with an expanding in-service fleet, this boosts recurring aftermarket parts and service revenue, enhancing margin stability over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

Rising debt alongside a shrinking equity base increases balance-sheet sensitivity to demand swings or cost shocks. High leverage constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing risk, and amplifies losses' impact on returns and covenants if operational headwinds persist.

Battery Recall Provision

A $229.9M warranty hit for ~700 buses and a projected 18–24 month campaign creates multi-quarter cash and operational drain. Beyond immediate expense, the recall raises execution, service-cost, and reputation risks that can depress aftermarket margins and future order competitiveness.

Weak Profitability / Margin Pressure

Revenue growth has not translated into reliable profitability: EBIT near break-even and a large net loss indicate margin erosion. Persistent weak margins limit cash available for deleveraging or reinvestment and make the business more vulnerable to input-cost or tariff shocks.

NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations. The company offers heavy-duty transit buses under the New Flyer name; single and double-deck buses under the Alexander Dennis Limited brand name; motor coaches under Plaxton and MCI brand names; low-floor cutaway and medium-duty buses under the ARBOC brand; and aftermarket parts under the NFI Parts brand name, as well as articulated buses. It also provides zero-emission vehicles, including battery-electric buses, motor coaches, hydrogen fuel-cell buses, and electric trolleys. In addition, company offers post-sale services, including part distribution, field services, support documentation, training, and special projects. The company was formerly known as New Flyer Industries Inc. and changed its name to NFI Group Inc. in May 2018. NFI Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

NFI primarily makes money from (1) selling buses and coaches and (2) generating recurring aftermarket revenue tied to the installed base of vehicles it has delivered. 1) Vehicle sales (manufacturing revenue): A significant portion of revenue comes from contracts to supply public transit agencies and private operators with new buses (including zero-emission models) and motorcoaches. Revenue is recognized as vehicles are delivered under customer orders and fleet procurements. Pricing and margin performance are influenced by production volume, product mix (e.g., zero-emission vs. diesel/CNG where applicable), input costs, and the company’s ability to execute on manufacturing schedules. 2) Aftermarket parts and service (recurring/lifecycle revenue): NFI also earns revenue by supporting fleets after the initial sale. This includes the sale of replacement parts and components, service and maintenance work, technical/field support, training, and other lifecycle support programs. Because fleets require ongoing maintenance and parts over many years, this stream can be more recurring in nature and is supported by the company’s installed base of buses and coaches. 3) Infrastructure/zero-emission enablement-related offerings: NFI participates in aspects of supporting zero-emission fleet deployment (e.g., services and solutions associated with operating and maintaining electric/fuel-cell buses). Specific revenue amounts or the precise structure of these offerings are null. Key factors influencing earnings include public transit funding cycles and fleet replacement plans, the adoption pace of zero-emission buses, manufacturing throughput and supply-chain availability, and the scale of the in-service fleet that drives parts and service demand. Significant partnerships or named counterparties contributing to earnings are null.

NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Revenue has rebounded (including ~8% growth in 2025) and 2025 cash flow improved sharply (operating cash flow ~177M; free cash flow ~142M). However, profitability deteriorated in 2025 (EBIT near breakeven and a large net loss), and leverage remains elevated with a shrinking equity base, increasing balance-sheet risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has rebounded strongly over the last three years (2023–2025), including ~8% growth in 2025, signaling improving demand and/or production cadence. However, profitability remains weak: 2025 shows a sharp drop in operating earnings versus 2024 (EBIT near breakeven) and a large net loss in 2025 after a near-breakeven 2024. Gross profit dollars also declined in 2025 despite higher revenue, pointing to margin pressure and limited ability to convert sales growth into bottom-line results.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and has trended worse recently: total debt rose to about 1.29B in 2025 while equity fell to about 585M, reducing the balance sheet buffer. Prior-year leverage was already high (debt-to-equity ~1.6–1.7 in 2023–2024, and above 2.0 in 2020 and 2022). With continued net losses, returns on equity have been negative, and the declining equity base increases sensitivity to any operational setbacks or cyclical demand swings.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2025: operating cash flow rose to ~177M and free cash flow turned strongly positive (~142M) versus negative free cash flow in 2022–2024. This is a meaningful positive signal for liquidity and self-funding capability. The key risk is volatility—recent history includes multiple years of negative operating and free cash flow (notably 2022–2023), so sustainability of the 2025 step-up remains the main item to monitor.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.68B	3.12B	2.69B	2.05B	2.34B
Gross Profit	275.03M	349.44M	220.76M	49.13M	235.59M
EBITDA	89.67M	220.29M	47.69M	-144.23M	165.34M
Net Income	-144.61M	-3.30M	-136.16M	-276.38M	-14.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.27B	2.91B	2.70B	2.59B	2.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	118.33M	49.56M	49.62M	49.99M	77.32M
Total Debt	1.29B	1.18B	1.14B	1.24B	955.85M
Total Liabilities	2.68B	2.21B	2.00B	2.01B	1.73B
Stockholders Equity	585.38M	707.75M	702.91M	577.15M	871.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	142.24M	-32.57M	-100.80M	-273.43M	78.97M
Operating Cash Flow	176.71M	15.34M	-63.81M	-241.85M	115.23M
Investing Cash Flow	-78.00M	-34.63M	-53.34M	-24.53M	-30.79M
Financing Cash Flow	-28.81M	20.75M	117.84M	238.28M	-59.99M

NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.25, above the 50-day MA of 17.21, and above the 200-day MA of 16.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NFI.

NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WPK	77 Outperform	C$2.62B	14.22	10.45%	7.11%	3.19%	-0.26%
XTC	71 Outperform	C$282.29M	13.48	6.05%	6.21%	-3.53%	-17.19%
LNR	69 Neutral	C$4.86B	8.51	4.01%	1.32%	-5.33%	-57.58%
MRE	63 Neutral	C$631.52M	7.04	7.13%	1.93%	-7.25%	-143.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
NFI	50 Neutral	C$2.15B	-9.31	-48.23%	―	14.40%	-1117.18%
DOO	48 Neutral	C$6.21B	23.28	5.55%	0.86%	-5.14%	-87.15%

NFI Group Inc Corporate Events

NFI Group Opens All-Canadian Bus Manufacturing Facility in Winnipeg

NFI Group has officially opened New Flyer’s new Customer Acceptance and Delivery facility in Winnipeg, enabling complete start-to-finish Canadian production of heavy-duty transit buses, including zero-emission models, for the first time in 15 years. Supported by federal and provincial investment, the plant reinforces Manitoba’s role as a heavy-duty manufacturing hub and expands New Flyer’s capacity by up to 240 equivalent units annually by 2027.

The facility is expected to create hundreds of skilled manufacturing jobs, strengthen Canada’s domestic supply chain, and support the country’s transition to low-carbon transportation. By localizing production for Canadian customers, the expansion also frees New Flyer’s U.S. plants to focus more on American demand, positioning NFI as a key player in North America’s shift toward cleaner public transit and greater industrial self-reliance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

New Flyer Wins 100-Bus Hybrid and Electric Order from Washington Metro

New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group, has secured an order from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority for 75 Xcelsior hybrid-electric and 25 Xcelsior CHARGE NG battery-electric forty-foot buses. The purchase draws on New Flyer’s existing backlog and reflects growing demand for low- and zero-emission transit solutions in major U.S. markets.

The new buses, funded through a mix of federal, state, local, and Low or No Emission grant sources, will replace end-of-life vehicles and support Metro’s five-year Strategic Transformation Plan. The deal deepens New Flyer’s long-standing relationship with one of the nation’s largest transit systems, while reinforcing NFI’s position in the transition to cleaner fleets and supporting U.S. manufacturing jobs.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI’s New Flyer Lands $56 Million Low-Emission Bus Order from Southern Nevada RTC

New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group, has secured an exercised option from the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada for 50 additional Xcelsior compressed natural gas buses—19 sixty-foot and 31 forty-foot models—valued at about $56 million and already included in NFI’s fourth-quarter 2025 firm backlog. Funded by local and U.S. federal transit sources and compliant with Buy America provisions, the low-emission vehicles will replace end-of-life buses in RTC’s fleet, reinforcing a three-decade partnership that has delivered over 900 buses to the region and further entrenching NFI’s position in the U.S. transit market as agencies pursue cleaner, longer-range fleets to serve high-volume ridership and meet sustainability and air-quality goals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI’s New Flyer Wins $56 Million RTC Nevada Order for 50 Low-Emission Buses

New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group Inc., has secured an order from the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada for 50 additional Xcelsior compressed natural gas buses—19 articulated 60-foot units and 31 standard 40-foot units—under existing five-year contracts. The roughly $56 million order, already counted in NFI’s fourth-quarter 2025 backlog and funded by local and U.S. federal transit sources, will replace end-of-life vehicles in Las Vegas–area service, supporting cleaner, low-emission transit for the RTC’s 64 million annual riders and reinforcing New Flyer’s long-standing relationship with the agency, which has received more than 900 buses from the manufacturer to date, over 500 of them CNG-powered.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI’s New Flyer Wins Additional Order as NJ TRANSIT Expands Bus Fleet Modernization

NFI Group’s subsidiary New Flyer has secured an additional order from New Jersey Transit for 375 Xcelsior 40-foot clean-diesel buses, completing the 550-bus base order under a multi-phase fleet replacement program that began with a 2024 contract and still leaves options for a further 750 units. The deal underscores New Flyer’s role as a key long-term supplier to major U.S. transit agencies and supports NJ TRANSIT’s drive to modernize its bus fleet by 2031, replacing aging vehicles while maintaining service levels, bolstering domestic manufacturing and local jobs, and reinforcing NFI’s competitive position in the North American public transportation market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Sets March 2026 Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call

NFI Group Inc. announced it will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results after markets close on March 11, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast with management on March 12, 2026, to review the results and take questions from investors. The company is directing stakeholders to a webcast—where a detailed results presentation will be available—as well as a pre-registered phone option and a year-long replay, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market and provide broad access to its financial disclosures as it pursues its strategy in sustainable mass mobility solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Lifts Ownership Cap for Largest Shareholder Coliseum Capital

NFI Group’s board has amended its investment agreement with Coliseum Capital Management, allowing the company’s largest shareholder to increase its stake to as much as 25% of NFI’s outstanding common shares, up from the previous 20% cap, until the end of 2026. While NFI will not issue new shares or receive proceeds from any additional Coliseum purchases, the deal underscores Coliseum’s long-term confidence in NFI’s strategy and grants the investor greater influence, including a commitment to vote any incremental shares in line with management and the board, reinforcing board support and signaling stability for shareholders as the company pursues its growth and zero-emission mobility ambitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.