NFI Group Inc (NFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 358.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 18.07%
• EPS Growth: 98.61%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 63
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 119,043,816
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 241,640
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 358,856
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 14.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$20.00
• Price Target Upside: 89.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

NFI Group has shown recovery signs with an improved EBITDA and record backlog, but persistent profitability challenges and high leverage remain substantial risks. While there is cautious optimism due to strong order growth and strategic shifts towards zero-emission buses, valuation concerns and potential external risks like tariffs weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Backlog Growth

NFI continues to drive backlog to record levels with year-end 2024 exiting at ~$13 billion.

Valuation

NFI's valuation does sit at an attractive level (~5x 2026 EV/EBITDA vs. historical levels in the ~8x range).

Negative Factors

Market Competition

A European bus manufacturer Solaris is working on entering the North American transit market, targeting commercial availability in 2026.

Supplier Issues

NFI is experiencing issues with a seating supplier and this may have worsened.

Tariff Concerns

The company continues to face supplier-related seat issues and now, potential tariff impacts.

NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations. The company offers heavy-duty transit buses under the New Flyer name; single and double-deck buses under the Alexander Dennis Limited brand name; motor coaches under Plaxton and MCI brand names; low-floor cutaway and medium-duty buses under the ARBOC brand; and aftermarket parts under the NFI Parts brand name, as well as articulated buses. It also provides zero-emission vehicles, including battery-electric buses, motor coaches, hydrogen fuel-cell buses, and electric trolleys. In addition, company offers post-sale services, including part distribution, field services, support documentation, training, and special projects. The company was formerly known as New Flyer Industries Inc. and changed its name to NFI Group Inc. in May 2018. NFI Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

NFI Group Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its buses and coaches, which are marketed under well-known brands like New Flyer, MCI, Alexander Dennis, Plaxton, ARBOC, and NFI Parts. The company earns income from new vehicle sales, aftermarket parts and services, and support for maintenance and refurbishment of existing fleets. NFI also benefits from long-term contracts with transit authorities and private operators, which provide a consistent revenue stream. Additionally, the company's focus on electric and low-emission vehicles taps into the growing demand for sustainable transportation solutions, further enhancing its revenue potential. Key partnerships with governments and transit agencies, as well as its strategic positioning in the global shift towards cleaner energy, play a significant role in NFI's earning strategy.

NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NFI Group Inc is experiencing a challenging financial phase with improvements in revenue and operating cash flow but persistent profitability issues. High leverage and negative equity returns present financial stability concerns. Continued focus on cost management and debt reduction will be critical for financial health improvement.

Income Statement

NFI Group Inc's revenue has shown volatility, with a recent growth from $2.69 billion in 2023 to $3.12 billion in 2024. Despite this growth, the company has struggled with profitability, as indicated by consistent net losses over recent years. Gross profit margin improved to 11.19% in 2024, but net profit margin remains negative. The EBIT and EBITDA margins show recovery, but profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The company exhibits high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67 in 2024, reflecting significant liabilities relative to equity. Stockholders' equity has increased slightly from 2023 to 2024, but the equity ratio is still low at 24.28%. The return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

NFI Group Inc has shown improvement in operating cash flow from a negative position in 2023 to positive $15.34 million in 2024. Free cash flow remains negative, but the reduction in negative free cash flow indicates potential progress. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to generate cash from operations despite net losses.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.08B	3.12B	2.69B	2.05B	2.34B	2.42B
	Gross Profit
344.12M	349.44M	220.76M	49.13M	235.59M	199.25M
	EBIT
98.08M	108.56M	-21.25M	-190.92M	30.43M	-32.05M
	EBITDA
155.23M	220.29M	47.69M	-144.23M	127.58M	20.88M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-24.19M	-3.30M	-136.16M	-277.76M	-14.48M	-157.74M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
39.83M	49.56M	49.62M	49.99M	77.32M	55.77M
	Total Assets
2.71B	2.91B	2.70B	2.59B	2.60B	2.76B
	Total Debt
1.18B	1.18B	1.14B	1.24B	955.85M	1.28B
	Net Debt
1.14B	1.13B	1.09B	1.19B	878.54M	1.22B
	Total Liabilities
2.00B	2.21B	2.00B	2.01B	1.73B	2.14B
	Stockholders Equity
710.98M	707.75M	702.91M	577.15M	871.77M	620.14M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
7.91M	-32.57M	-100.80M	-273.43M	78.97M	40.33M
	Operating Cash Flow
52.98M	15.34M	-63.81M	-241.85M	115.23M	66.06M
	Investing Cash Flow
-43.63M	-34.63M	-53.34M	-24.53M	-30.79M	-38.48M
	Financing Cash Flow
-20.23M	20.75M	117.84M	238.28M	-59.99M	-37.00K

NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.90, below the 50-day MA of 11.61, and below the 200-day MA of 15.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NFI.

NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WSP	75 Outperform	C$29.96B	42.49	9.33%	0.65%	11.98%	22.53%
MTL	73 Outperform	C$1.07B	9.54	11.27%	6.56%	-0.27%	-15.99%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$11.20B	10.09	-1.41%	3.96%	1.31%	-16.95%
NFI	50 Neutral	C$1.26B	―	-0.38%	―	18.07%	98.61%

NFI Group Inc Corporate Events

NFI Group’s New Flyer Secures Major Orders for Sustainable Buses in Maryland

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured significant orders from the Maryland Transit Administration for 117 low- and zero-emission buses. This move strengthens New Flyer’s position in providing sustainable transit solutions and supports Maryland’s efforts to reduce emissions and enhance its transit infrastructure. The orders include hybrid-electric and battery-electric buses, which align with the agency’s sustainability goals and ensure operational efficiency.

NFI Group Secures Major Bus Contract with York Region Transit

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured a contract with York Region Transit for 170 Xcelsior clean-diesel buses, enhancing its position in the sustainable mobility sector. This order, part of NFI’s Q4 2024 backlog, will support York Region Transit’s mission of connecting communities in Ontario, improving efficiency, and reducing operating costs.

NFI Group Reports Robust Fiscal 2024 Results with Record Backlog

NFI Group Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, highlighted by a record backlog of $12.8 billion and significant improvements in net earnings and adjusted EBITDA. The company experienced a 5.1% increase in revenue and a 76.4% rise in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, with a notable increase in the delivery of zero-emission buses, which now represent 40.3% of the total backlog. These results underscore NFI’s robust market position and its commitment to sustainable transportation solutions, with implications for enhanced stakeholder value and industry leadership.

NFI Group Inc. Reports Strong Fiscal 2024 Results with Record Backlog

NFI Group Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, with a record backlog of $12.8 billion and significant improvements in net earnings and adjusted EBITDA. The company saw a 5.1% increase in revenue and a 76.4% rise in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year, highlighting its robust operational performance and strategic focus on zero-emission buses, which now represent 40.3% of its total backlog.

NFI Group Inc. Honored as One of Manitoba’s Top Employers for 2025

NFI Group Inc. has been recognized as one of Manitoba’s Top Employers for 2025, highlighting the company’s commitment to providing an exceptional workplace. This accolade reflects the dedication and hard work of NFI’s employees, positioning the company as a leader in its industry and a supportive community member.

NFI Group’s New Flyer Secures Major Bus Order from Durham Region Transit

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured orders for 43 buses from Durham Region Transit, comprising seven battery-electric and 36 clean-diesel buses. This order aims to replace aging vehicles and expand DRT’s fleet, enhancing public transit services in Ontario’s Durham region and supporting sustainable mobility initiatives.

NFI Group Secures Major Zero-Emission Bus Contract with OCTA

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured a contract from the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) for 50 zero-emission buses, including hydrogen fuel cell-electric and battery-electric models. This order, supported by federal and local funding, highlights OCTA’s commitment to advanced transportation technology and strengthens NFI’s position in the zero-emission transit market, enhancing economic growth and energy efficiency in Orange County.

NFI Group Secures Major Order for Zero-Emission Buses in Liverpool

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Alexander Dennis Limited, has secured an order for 58 Enviro400EV zero-emission buses from the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority. These buses, supported by the UK’s ZEBRA 2 fund, will enhance the region’s public transport fleet and are expected to be operational later this year. The project will support significant employment in the UK, including 1,900 skilled jobs and over 60 apprenticeships, contributing to both environmental and economic sustainability.

NFI Group Secures Major Order for Electric Buses from New York MTA

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured an order from New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority (MTA) for 265 zero-emission buses as part of their effort to transition to a fully electric fleet by 2040. This order is a significant step in the MTA’s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2040, highlighting NFI’s role in supporting sustainable transit initiatives.

NFI Group Secures Major Contract with Washington Metro for Zero-Emission Buses

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured a significant contract with the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority for up to 500 low- and zero-emission buses. This contract, which includes firm orders for hybrid and battery-electric buses, strengthens New Flyer’s backlog and positions the company for long-term collaboration with Metro, addressing challenges like supply chain disruptions with flexible pricing and delivery terms.

NFI Group to Announce 2024 Financial Results

NFI Group Inc. has announced its intention to release the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024 on March 13, 2025, followed by a webcast and conference call the next day. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and operational strategy, particularly as it continues to lead in the electrification of mass mobility solutions globally. The results and subsequent discussion could impact market perceptions and investor decisions, reflecting NFI’s positioning in the sustainable mobility sector.

NFI’s MCI Secures Major Contract with Metrolinx

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Motor Coach Industries (MCI), has secured a major five-year contract with Metrolinx, a key transportation agency in Ontario. The contract, which includes an initial order for 80 commuter coaches, reinforces NFI’s strong relationship with Metrolinx and highlights the company’s significant role in supporting regional transit infrastructure.