MDA Space Ltd (MDA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.71B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.86
• Revenue Growth: 57.77%
• EPS Growth: 57.55%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 126,488,396
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 813,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,087,175
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.44
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.03
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$51.25
• Price Target Upside: 13.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.81B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$50.00 ▲(10.79% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

Overall score reflects strong operational growth and profitability recovery, supported by constructive technical momentum. The rating is tempered by uneven cash generation (and guidance for neutral/negative 2026 free cash flow) and a higher P/E that leaves less room for execution misses.

Positive Factors

Visible Multi-year Revenue Backlog & Pipeline

A $4.0B backlog and $40B pipeline provide durable revenue visibility and multiple conversion opportunities across commercial and government segments. This structural backlog underpins multi-year production plans, supports capacity utilization, and reduces near-term demand volatility risk.

Manufacturing Scale and Production Capacity

Significant factory expansion and stated capacity for high-volume satellite production create a structural competitive advantage: lower per-unit costs, faster throughput for large programs, and the ability to capture follow-on production awards tied to scale and delivery reliability.

Sustained Revenue Growth and Profitability Recovery

Rapid revenue scaling combined with consistent positive EBIT and net income shows the business model has transitioned from loss-making to profitable. This durable improvement evidences successful program execution, improved operational controls, and a scalable sales pipeline supporting ongoing growth.

Negative Factors

Volatile Free Cash Flow and Near-term FCF Risk

Management expects neutral-to-negative FCF in 2026 due to working-capital swings and elevated CapEx. Historical lumpiness (sharp FCF decline in 2025 and past negative years) shows cash generation can fluctuate materially, constraining reinvestment flexibility and elevating funding risk during program timing shifts.

Margin Compression from Program Mix

A material step-down in gross and EBIT margins reflects mix shift, cost pressure, or timing effects. If defense or lower-margin government programs grow as share of revenue, structural margin pressures could persist, limiting sustainable profitability despite higher top-line growth.

Conversion and Timing Risk in Large Pipeline

A large $40B pipeline is positive but conversion depends on procurement cycles and program awards that are often lumpy and slow. Reliance on complex government procurement increases timing and execution risk, which can produce uneven revenue recognition and pressure on operational planning.

MDA Space Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MDA Ltd. designs, manufactures, and services space robotics, satellite systems and components, and intelligence systems in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers geointelligence solutions that provide satellite-generated imagery and analytic services to deliver critical and value-added insights in the areas of national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance. The company also provides robotics and space operations that enable humanity's exploration by providing autonomous robotics and vision sensors that operate in space and on the surfaces of the moon and mars. In addition, it offers satellite systems and spacecraft to enable space-based services, including space-based broadband internet connectivity from low earth orbit satellite constellations. Further, the company provides products and services of defense intelligence systems. It serves government agencies, prime contractors, and space companies. The company was formerly known as Neptune Acquisition Holdings Inc. and changed its name to MDA Ltd. in March 2021. MDA Ltd. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

MDA primarily makes money by selling space products and services through long-term contracts and programs, with revenue recognized as it delivers engineering, manufacturing, integration, and on-orbit support milestones. Key revenue streams include: (1) Satellite systems: design and manufacture of satellites (including Earth observation and communications), satellite subsystems, and associated ground/mission systems; revenue is typically contract-based and tied to build-and-deliver program phases. (2) Space robotics: development and delivery of space robotic systems and components for civil and commercial missions; earnings come from contracted hardware delivery plus related engineering services, integration, testing, and lifecycle support. (3) Geointelligence and related services: provision of Earth-observation-derived information products, mission solutions, and related services to customers; revenue is generated via service contracts and, where applicable, recurring service or data access arrangements. Across these lines, MDA’s earnings are influenced by the pace of customer-funded mission programs, milestone acceptance, and the mix of development vs. production work; details on specific contract terms, customer concentration, or partnership economics not disclosed in public sources are null.

MDA Space Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and sustained profitability (positive EBIT/net income in each of the last five annual periods) support the score. Offsetting this are the 2025 margin step-down and notably volatile free cash flow (sharp FY25 FCF decline and prior negative years), plus year-to-year leverage swings.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled rapidly from ~$394M (2020) to ~$1.63B (2025), with 2025 showing strong ~10% growth on top of prior multi-year expansion. Profitability has improved materially versus 2020 losses, with positive EBIT and net income in each of the last five annual periods. However, margins have compressed in 2025 versus 2023–2024 (gross margin ~20% in 2025 vs ~30–34% previously; EBIT margin ~6.9% vs ~9–12%), suggesting mix, cost pressure, or program timing impacts despite higher sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows solid equity growth (stockholders’ equity rising to ~$1.36B in 2025) and moderate leverage in the latest year (debt-to-equity ~0.30 in 2025), a major improvement from the highly levered 2020 position. Returns on equity have also improved to ~8.0% in 2025. The key weakness is volatility in leverage over time (debt-to-equity moved from ~0.12 in 2024 to ~0.30 in 2025, and was ~0.49 in 2023), indicating funding needs can swing meaningfully by year.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive overall, with 2025 operating cash flow (~$408M) and free cash flow (~$232M) remaining positive. That said, free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (down ~58% year over year), and the company has a history of lumpiness (notably negative free cash flow in 2022 and 2023). Cash conversion also weakened in 2025 versus 2024, with free cash flow covering a smaller share of net income (about ~57% in 2025 vs ~83% in 2024), pointing to higher reinvestment or working-capital drag.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.63B	1.08B	807.60M	641.20M	476.90M
Gross Profit	325.10M	325.50M	275.60M	252.10M	191.30M
EBITDA	254.00M	162.80M	154.00M	128.90M	75.70M
Net Income	108.50M	79.40M	48.80M	26.30M	2.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.36B	2.60B	2.16B	1.75B	1.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	152.00M	166.70M	22.50M	39.30M	83.60M
Total Debt	411.10M	136.80M	525.00M	251.90M	160.40M
Total Liabilities	2.00B	1.42B	1.10B	750.20M	572.90M
Stockholders Equity	1.35B	1.18B	1.06B	1.00B	961.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	232.20M	677.40M	-134.50M	-80.80M	19.60M
Operating Cash Flow	407.50M	815.60M	13.50M	57.00M	72.10M
Investing Cash Flow	-614.60M	-229.90M	-217.60M	-180.10M	-98.80M
Financing Cash Flow	196.30M	-436.10M	187.40M	78.80M	30.60M

MDA Space Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 45.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.72, above the 50-day MA of 38.10, and above the 200-day MA of 34.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MDA.

MDA Space Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FTG	74 Outperform	C$444.06M	21.66	14.42%	―	15.09%	31.55%
MAL	72 Outperform	C$1.26B	18.44	5.52%	0.93%	8.84%	131.58%
MDA	71 Outperform	C$5.71B	30.51	8.88%	―	57.77%	57.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
DPRO	52 Neutral	C$208.42M	-11.28	-72.67%	―	26.74%	53.14%
DFSC	45 Neutral	C$7.08M	-1.05	-215.48%	―	166.43%	75.12%
SNA	44 Neutral	C$7.68M	-1.62	77.69%	―	-45.86%	36.73%

MDA Space Ltd Corporate Events

MDA Space Raises US$300 Million in NYSE Debut to Fuel Global Growth

MDA Space Ltd. has completed its initial public offering in the United States, issuing 9,836,065 common shares at US$30.50 per share for gross proceeds of about US$300 million and listing its stock on the New York Stock Exchange alongside its existing TSX listing. The cross-border offering, led by a syndicate of major global underwriters, boosts the company’s capital base to fund growth strategies, expand its customer base and solutions, support existing clients, pursue acquisitions or investments, and potentially repay portions of existing credit facilities, underscoring its ambition to scale its position in the global space and defence market.

The transaction marks a significant step in broadening MDA Space’s access to U.S. capital markets and investors, which could enhance liquidity and visibility for the stock. By strengthening its financial flexibility, the company is better positioned to compete for large contracts in communications satellites, Earth observation and space infrastructure, potentially accelerating its role in major government and commercial space programs.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Hold with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Raises US$300 Million in U.S. IPO and Secures NYSE Listing

MDA Space Ltd., a Canadian aerospace and defence technology company focused on robotics, satellite systems and geointelligence, has established itself as a global leader in communications satellites, Earth and space observation, and space infrastructure over more than five decades. The firm leverages its engineering expertise and long mission track record to support government and commercial customers in the rapidly expanding global space economy.

MDA Space closed a marketed public offering of 9,836,065 common shares in the United States and Canada at US$30.50 per share, raising approximately US$300 million and securing a dual listing on the New York Stock Exchange alongside the TSX. The capital injection and U.S. listing are intended to fuel the company’s growth strategy, including expanding its customer base, supporting existing clients, pursuing acquisitions or investments, and potentially paying down debt, moves that could strengthen its balance sheet and competitive position in the global space sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Hold with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Posts Record 2025 Results and Expands Defence and Satellite Growth Platform

MDA Space reported a record fiscal 2025 with revenues rising 51.2% year over year to $1.63 billion and adjusted EBITDA climbing 49.2% to $323.9 million, supported largely by strong growth in its Satellite Systems business. The company ended the year with a $4.0 billion backlog and a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.4x, providing revenue visibility into 2026 while maintaining a conservative balance sheet.

Management highlighted a robust $40 billion opportunity pipeline, including $10 billion tied to down-selected government work or follow-on contracts, underpinning confidence in continued growth. Strategic moves such as integrating SatixFy’s chip technology, scaling one of the largest satellite production facilities in its class for Telesat Lightspeed and Globalstar LEO constellations, and expanding defence-oriented offerings and partnerships, including the launch of defence tech arm 49North, are strengthening MDA Space’s positioning in the accelerating defence and space markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Director Alison Alfers Resigns; Board Launches Search for Successor

MDA Space Ltd. announced that board member Alison Alfers has resigned from the Board of Directors, effective March 3, 2026, due to unexpected family circumstances. Alfers, who joined the board in 2022, is credited with helping the company navigate a period of significant growth, and the board has begun the process of identifying a replacement for her seat.

Her departure comes after several years of what the company describes as demanding evolution and execution, underlining the importance of experienced governance during a transformative phase. The search for a new director will be closely watched by stakeholders, as the board refresh offers an opportunity to further align oversight with MDA Space’s expanding role in global space and defence markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space launches 49North defence subsidiary, names Joe Armstrong president

MDA Space has created 49North, a wholly owned Canadian defence subsidiary headquartered in Ottawa to deliver secure, multi-domain C4ISR and mission-critical capabilities for national defence needs beyond the space domain. The unit is designed to concentrate MDA Space’s proven defence engineering, operational reliability, and program execution expertise to bolster Canada’s sovereign defence capacity and support allied operations.

The company has appointed veteran defence executive Joe Armstrong as President of 49North, tasking him with leading solutions across land, air, maritime and joint operations, including advanced sensing, radar, autonomous systems and long-term in-service support. Armstrong’s 25-plus years of leadership in defence, aerospace and technology, including senior roles at CAE overseeing global military programs, is expected to strengthen 49North’s ability to win and deliver large, complex defence contracts.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Sets March 4 Call for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

MDA Space Ltd. will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results before markets open on March 4, 2026, and management will discuss the performance on a conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET that same day. The company will also provide investors and analysts with extended access to the discussion through a webcast archived for 12 months and a one-week replay of the audio call, underscoring its focus on transparency and ongoing engagement with capital markets stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space, Hanwha Sign MOU on Korea’s K-LEO Military Satellite Constellation

MDA Space has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Korea’s Hanwha Systems to explore collaboration on the development of Korea’s sovereign Low Earth Orbit defence constellation (K-LEO). The prospective partnership will assess how MDA’s AURORA software-defined digital satellite platform can be integrated into Hanwha’s solutions to support secure, resilient military communications and data services, potentially strengthening Korea’s defence space capabilities and underscoring growing international confidence in MDA’s dual-use satellite technology for national security applications.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Wins IDIQ Contract Slot on U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD Program

MDA Space Ltd. has secured an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency under its Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) program, enabling the company to compete for a wide range of future task orders supporting U.S. defence efforts across land, sea, air, cyberspace and space domains. The award reinforces MDA Space’s status as a trusted mission partner in defence and security, positioning the company to deepen its role in U.S. strategic defence initiatives and potentially expand its footprint in the lucrative military space and missile defence market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Raises C$250 Million in Note Offering to Refinance Debt

MDA Space Ltd. has closed a C$250 million private placement of 7.00% senior unsecured notes due 2030, led by a syndicate of underwriters including RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The company is using the net proceeds to refinance existing debt under its credit facility, a move that extends its debt maturity profile and may provide greater financial flexibility as it pursues growth opportunities in the global space sector, while the notes were placed with accredited investors in Canada and qualified institutional buyers in the United States under applicable securities law exemptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.