Ivanhoe Mines (TSE:IVN)
OTHER OTC:IVN
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Ivanhoe Mines
(OTC:IVN)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
C$11.50
▼(-6.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by persistently negative operating/free cash flow and an extremely high P/E valuation, with additional pressure from weak-to-neutral technicals (below key longer-term moving averages, negative MACD). Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was broadly positive with reaffirmed guidance, smelter ramp benefits, and solid liquidity, though near-term operational disruptions and a serious safety incident remain material risks.
Positive Factors
Smelter integration and by-product acid production
Commissioning and >60% ramp of the direct‑to‑blister smelter creates durable vertical integration: it should lower third‑party treatment and logistics costs (~30% improvement projected) while generating valuable sulfuric acid by‑product revenue, structurally improving unit margins and cash conversion as smelter reaches steady state.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow means the business is not yet self‑funding and will rely on external financing or cash reserves for capex and expansions. That elevates capital risk if commodity prices or credit conditions tighten and increases execution pressure on projects intended to improve unit economics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Smelter integration and by-product acid production
Commissioning and >60% ramp of the direct‑to‑blister smelter creates durable vertical integration: it should lower third‑party treatment and logistics costs (~30% improvement projected) while generating valuable sulfuric acid by‑product revenue, structurally improving unit margins and cash conversion as smelter reaches steady state.
Read all positive factors
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$16.56B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)182231.7
Beta (1Y)2.34
Revenue Growth336.94%
EPS Growth-70.03%
CountryCA
Employees710
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding1,425,962,900
10 Day Avg. Volume4,709,385
30 Day Avg. Volume4,756,063
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.32
Price to Book (P/B)2.64
Price to Sales (P/S)34.67
P/FCF Ratio-32.63
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$13.96Price Target Upside13.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$809.25M
Ivanhoe Mines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, and recovery of minerals and precious metals located primarily in Africa. It explores for platinum, palladium, nickel, copper, gold, rhodium, zinc, silver, germanium, and lead deposits. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Ivanhoe Mines makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals from its operating assets and by advancing development projects toward production. Its key revenue stream is the sale of copper concentrate (and related payable metals) from...
Ivanhoe Mines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple major operational and strategic milestones—commissioning and early ramp-up of the Kamoa-Kakula smelter, record Kamoa-Kakula revenue and strong EBITDA generation, Kipushi’s rapid ramp and improved zinc economics, Platreef inauguration and advancing Phase 2, an accelerated and well-funded exploration program, and a solid liquidity position. These positives are balanced against notable short-term operational challenges: a tragic fatality, flooding/dewatering and reserve impacts at Kakula that depress near-term grades and push up short-term unit costs, some one-off G&A and logistics pressures in Q4, and timing-driven inventory/sales variability. On balance, the achievements, growth projects and financial/strategic momentum materially outweigh the operational setbacks and one-off cost pressures reported on the call.Positive Updates
Kamoa-Kakula Strong Financial Performance
Kamoa-Kakula achieved its highest calendar-year revenue of $3.3 billion in 2025 at a realized copper price of $4.40/lb, produced ~389,000 tonnes of copper for the year, and recorded annual EBITDA of $1.4 billion (44% margin). Q4 EBITDA was $331 million, up 69% quarter-on-quarter, and Q4 sales included ~79,000 tonnes of payable copper with Q4 revenue of $866 million at a realized price of $4.98/lb.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Kamoa-Kakula
A maintenance incident at the Phase 2 concentrator resulted in a flammable liquid ignition; one contractor tragically died and another was severely burned (hospitalized, stable). Management has launched a full investigation and emphasized renewed safety focus. This is a material human and reputational negative event.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Kamoa-Kakula Strong Financial Performance
Kamoa-Kakula achieved its highest calendar-year revenue of $3.3 billion in 2025 at a realized copper price of $4.40/lb, produced ~389,000 tonnes of copper for the year, and recorded annual EBITDA of $1.4 billion (44% margin). Q4 EBITDA was $331 million, up 69% quarter-on-quarter, and Q4 sales included ~79,000 tonnes of payable copper with Q4 revenue of $866 million at a realized price of $4.98/lb.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated production and cost guidance across the portfolio: Kamoa‑Kakula was reaffirmed at 380,000–420,000 t Cu in 2026 (with potential 2027 output of ~500,000–540,000 t), cash‑cost guidance of $2.20–$2.50/lb payable Cu in 2026 improving to $1.90–$2.30/lb in 2027, and the new $1.1B smelter (already >60% ramped) is expected to cut logistics/TC‑RCs by ~30% and produce ~1,200 t/day of sulfuric acid (realized prices >$450/t); management expects 2026 copper sales to exceed production by at least ~30,000 t while inventory in the smelting circuit falls to ~17,000 t. Kipushi’s 2026 guidance is 240,000–290,000 t Zn in concentrate with cash costs $0.85–$0.95/lb (Q4/2025: $0.86/$0.92 per lb), and Platreef’s Phase‑2 aims to ramp to roughly 450,000 oz 4E/year by end‑2027 (company also cites a ~500,000 oz 4E case with ~10,000 t Ni and ~5,000 t Cu for the larger expansion) with key shaft and plant milestones through 2027–2029. Exploration is budgeted at $90M in 2026 (≈$50M in the Western Forelands, ~140 km drilling) with an updated Western Forelands resource mid‑year, and liquidity/finance metrics cited included Ivanhoe cash of $885M, Kamoa cash $311M and consolidated net‑debt/EBITDA ~2.1x.Ivanhoe Mines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 527.92M | 449.35M | 40.82M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 20.64M | -35.18M | -8.64M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 133.71M | 41.06M | -124.00M | -93.74M | -85.48M | -102.02M |
| Net Income | 132.24M | 266.13M | 228.13M | 318.93M | 410.86M | 55.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.58B | 7.61B | 5.74B | 5.00B | 3.97B | 3.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 754.43M | 883.64M | 102.08M | 560.27M | 597.45M | 608.18M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.27B | 369.19M | 953.98M | 741.88M | 490.63M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.88B | 1.90B | 901.91M | 1.42B | 1.13B | 841.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.89B | 5.89B | 4.99B | 3.70B | 2.93B | 2.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -497.66M | -477.48M | -644.14M | -509.46M | 18.43M | -59.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -148.84M | -129.68M | -152.43M | -31.57M | 177.09M | -7.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -690.34M | -677.37M | -495.40M | -477.00M | -173.63M | -208.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 770.42M | 1.44B | 206.95M | 500.27M | -9.69M | 561.97M |
Ivanhoe Mines Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.27
Price Trends
11.58
Positive
13.88
Negative
13.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
48.80
Neutral
16.33
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IVN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.53, above the 50-day MA of 11.58, and below the 200-day MA of 13.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:IVN.
Ivanhoe Mines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$42.39B | 10.71 | 7.35% | 0.78% | 5.10% | 429.79% | |
70 Outperform | C$42.39B | 10.71 | 7.35% | 0.78% | 5.10% | 429.79% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | C$16.56B | 182,231.70 | 2.32% | ― | 336.94% | -70.03% | |
47 Neutral | C$5.42B | -31.05 | -39.16% | ― | ― | -59.48% | |
46 Neutral | C$4.76B | -12.06 | -185.40% | ― | ― | -32.52% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:IVN
Ivanhoe Mines
11.61
0.32
2.83%
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Ivanhoe Mines Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ivanhoe Mines lifts output across African assets as smelter, shaft expansions advance
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
Ivanhoe Mines reported strong first-quarter operational performance across its African portfolio, underscored by 71,417 tonnes of copper produced at the Kamoa-Kakula complex, including growing output from Africa’s largest direct-to-blister c...
Business Operations and Strategy
Ivanhoe Mines Cuts Near-Term Output Guidance as Kamoa-Kakula Study Backs Long-Life Copper Growth
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Ivanhoe Mines has released an updated independent technical report for the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex, confirming an Indicated Mineral Resource of 1.27 billion tonnes at 2.65% copper and a Mineral Reserve of 466 million tonnes at 2.82% copper. Th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ivanhoe Mines to Release Updated Kamoa-Kakula Technical Report and Host Investor Call
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
Ivanhoe Mines, a Canadian-listed miner with core copper, zinc, and platinum-group metals projects across Southern Africa and an expanding exploration footprint in Africa and Central Asia, is positioning its Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex and related ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ivanhoe Mines lifts 2025 profit as African copper and zinc assets hit cost targets
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Ivanhoe Mines reported a 2025 profit after tax of $228 million and adjusted EBITDA of $578 million, as its flagship Kamoa-Kakula operation generated $3.28 billion in revenue and $1.45 billion in EBITDA at a 44% margin despite lower copper producti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.