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Green Thumb Industries Inc (TSE:GTII)
:GTII
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Green Thumb Industries
(OTC:GTII)
73Outperform
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
GTI delivered strong Q4 2024 results, outperforming consensus on both revenue and AEBITDA despite sector-wide pricing pressure and regulatory uncertainty.
Market Expansion
The company’s strong brand positioning continues to drive market share gains across key states, while upside exists from THC beverages and alternative distribution models.
Strategic Investments
GTI’s investment case is driven by resilient cash flow generation, allowing for strategic CapEx and opportunistic M&A.
Negative Factors
Margin Pressures
Margin pressures are expected to persist, with AEBITDA margins potentially falling below GTI’s long-term 30% target due to pricing declines.
Regulatory Environment
Management remains skeptical about significant federal cannabis reform in 2025, citing regulatory uncertainty under the new administration.
Sales Performance
Comparable sales for stores open at least 12 months declined 2.6%, reflecting continued pricing pressure.
Green Thumb Industries (GTII) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.78B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)188.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.2
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth9.46%
EPS Growth105.27%
CountryCA
Employees4,800
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength78
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.41
Shares Outstanding211,465,450
10 Day Avg. Volume256,966
30 Day Avg. Volume188,043
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)7.20
P/FCF Ratio7.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$20.64Price Target Upside173.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Green Thumb Industries Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreen Thumb Industries (GTII) is a leading national cannabis consumer packaged goods company and retailer in the United States. The company operates in the cannabis industry, focusing on the production, distribution, and sale of a wide range of cannabis products including flower, edibles, concentrates, and topicals. GTII is committed to providing high-quality cannabis products through its diverse portfolio of brands and operates a chain of retail locations known as Rise dispensaries across multiple states.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreen Thumb Industries (GTII) generates revenue primarily through the cultivation, manufacturing, and distribution of cannabis products, as well as the operation of retail dispensaries under the Rise brand. The company's key revenue streams include wholesale sales to other cannabis businesses and direct-to-consumer sales through its dispensaries. GTII also benefits from strategic partnerships and licenses that expand its market presence and product offerings. Additionally, the company's focus on brand development and product innovation contributes to its earnings by attracting a diverse customer base and ensuring a strong market position.
Green Thumb Industries Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Green Thumb Industries demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, improved profitability, and solid operational efficiency. The company maintains a balanced financial structure with moderate leverage and robust equity, supported by substantial cash flow generation.Income Statement
Green Thumb Industries has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase of 7.83% in the most recent period. The gross profit margin stands at 52.87%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved to 6.43%, showing enhanced profitability. Notably, the EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 19.74% and 34.47%, respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, suggesting moderate leverage. The return on equity is a healthy 4.08%, indicating effective use of equity. Moreover, the equity ratio is a robust 70.52%, demonstrating a strong equity base relative to total assets.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Green Thumb Industries has shown significant improvement in free cash flow, with a substantial growth rate of 2228.54% over the past year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.67, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.57 further highlights effective cash utilization.80
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.14B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 893.56M | 556.57M | Gross Profit |
| 601.11M | 526.50M | 503.96M | 491.93M | 304.17M | EBIT |
| 224.43M | 184.63M | 121.06M | 124.37M | 106.11M | EBITDA |
| 392.00M | 324.14M | 270.28M | 329.53M | 200.39M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 73.08M | 36.27M | 11.98M | 75.44M | 14.99M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 171.69M | 161.63M | 177.68M | 230.42M | 83.76M | Total Assets |
| 2.54B | 2.49B | 2.43B | 2.39B | 1.36B | Total Debt |
| 530.70M | 570.28M | 535.86M | 421.69M | 249.34M | Net Debt |
| 359.01M | 408.65M | 358.17M | 191.27M | 165.59M | Total Liabilities |
| 747.93M | 786.80M | 768.10M | 766.37M | 444.39M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.79B | 1.70B | 1.67B | 1.62B | 910.62M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 115.00M | 4.93M | -20.94M | -55.80M | 36.12M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 195.18M | 224.97M | 158.56M | 132.05M | 95.92M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -89.54M | -227.91M | -219.95M | -280.73M | -57.27M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -95.59M | -13.11M | 8.64M | 295.34M | -1.55M |
Green Thumb Industries Technical Analysis
Negative
7.55
Price Trends
9.55
Negative
10.67
Negative
12.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Positive
39.06
Neutral
42.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GTII, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.72, below the 50-day MA of 9.55, and below the 200-day MA of 12.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GTII.
Green Thumb Industries Risk Analysis
Green Thumb Industries disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Thumb Industries reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Thumb Industries Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.78B | 18.16 | 4.19% | ― | 9.46% | 105.27% | |
68 Neutral | $956.33M | 16.85 | 3.80% | ― | 35.87% | ― | |
51 Neutral | C$875.46M | ― | -23.33% | ― | 0.67% | 19.14% | |
49 Neutral | $1.02B | ― | -12.12% | ― | 6.27% | 67.62% | |
48 Neutral | $6.86B | 1.11 | -50.22% | 2.47% | 16.71% | 1.53% | |
36 Underperform | $249.91M | ― | -84.50% | ― | -16.27% | 76.17% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
TSE:GTII
Green Thumb Industries
7.14
-11.96
-62.62%
TSE:WEED
Canopy Growth
1.38
-12.48
-90.04%
TSE:CRON
Cronos Group
2.50
-1.16
-31.69%
TSE:TRUL
Trulieve Cannabis
5.04
-11.61
-69.73%
TSE:CURA
Curaleaf Holdings
1.16
-6.31
-84.47%
Green Thumb Industries Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 26, 2025 | % Change Since: -24.88% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Green Thumb Industries demonstrated strong financial performance with record revenue and EBITDA, a robust cash flow, and successful expansion efforts. However, challenges such as continued pricing pressure and skepticism regarding federal reform remain. Despite these challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and market share gains indicate a positive outlook.Highlights
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Green Thumb Industries achieved record revenue of $294 million and a record adjusted EBITDA of $98 million, marking a 33% margin.
Strong Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
The company reported a full-year 2024 cash flow from operations of $195 million after paying $131 million in taxes, ending the year with a strong balance sheet and a cash position of $172 million.
Successful Expansion and Market Share Gains
Green Thumb opened 10 new stores in 2024, reaching a total of 101 stores. The company also made significant market share gains in Ohio, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.
Innovation and Strategic Partnerships
The company invested in Agrify for THC beverages and partnered with Magnolia Bakery for edibles. It also launched a partnership with The Salt Shed music venue in Chicago.
Strong Performance in Consumer Packaged Goods
Consumer packaged goods net revenue increased 22% versus the prior year period, driven by growth in New York, New Jersey, and the addition of adult-use sales in Ohio.
Lowlights
Continued Pricing Pressure
The company anticipates continued price erosion in many markets due to supply-demand imbalances and competition from unregulated products.
Skepticism on Federal Reform
There is skepticism about the timing of any significant federal reform, with concerns about continued regulatory challenges.
Mid-Single-Digit Revenue Decline Expected
The company expects first-quarter sequential revenue to be down mid-single digits due to seasonality and pricing declines.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Green Thumb Industries reported record revenue of $294 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $98 million, representing a 33% margin, despite facing pricing pressures in the cannabis market. The company's full-year 2024 cash flow from operations was $195 million after paying $131 million in taxes. Green Thumb ended the year with a strong balance sheet, which included $172 million in cash and $239 million in working capital. The company also successfully negotiated a $150 million syndicated bank loan to retire $225 million in senior secured debt, extending its financial runway by five years. Green Thumb opened 10 new stores in 2024, bringing the total to 101, and invested $80 million in CapEx, focusing on growth in markets such as New Jersey, Virginia, Connecticut, and Florida. The company plans to maintain a similar level of capital expenditure in 2025, with a focus on store renovations, relocations, and strategic wholesale investments.Green Thumb Industries Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Green Thumb Industries Revamps Executive Compensation Strategy
Positive
Oct 25, 2024
Green Thumb Industries Inc. revamped its executive compensation plan, rewarding top leaders with significant Restricted Share Units (RSUs) to recognize their leadership and encourage retention. CEO Benjamin Kovler and President Anthony Georgiadis will each receive 750,000 RSUs and a $300,000 cash bonus, while CFO Mathew Faulkner and General Counsel Bret Kravitz will each get 300,000 RSUs. Additionally, annual cash bonus targets for Kovler and Georgiadis have been increased to 325% and 300% of their base salaries, respectively, underlining the company’s commitment to rewarding its key executives.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.