Franco-Nevada (TSE:FNV)
TSX:FNV
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Franco-Nevada
(TSX:FNV)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$363.00
▲(11.95% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability and an exceptionally conservative balance sheet) and supportive technicals (clear uptrend with positive momentum). These strengths are partially tempered by a high P/E and modest dividend yield, plus earnings-call risks around cost/depletion pressure and uncertainty tied to Cobre Panama and certain true-ups.
Positive Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet & Capital
Franco‑Nevada's debt‑free position and large liquid capital buffer materially reduce financial risk and preserve strategic optionality. That durable liquidity underpins the 19‑year rising dividend, funds accretive royalty/stream purchases without leverage, and supports multi‑year growth execution.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Volatility
Despite strong operating cash generation historically, free cash flow swung sharply negative in 2025, likely due to large investing or working‑capital outflows. Persistent FCF volatility can constrain sustainable dividend funding and acquisition pacing unless management maintains ample liquidity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative Balance Sheet & Capital
Franco‑Nevada's debt‑free position and large liquid capital buffer materially reduce financial risk and preserve strategic optionality. That durable liquidity underpins the 19‑year rising dividend, funds accretive royalty/stream purchases without leverage, and supports multi‑year growth execution.
Read all positive factors
Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$62.51B
Dividend Yield0.72%
Average Volume (3M)377.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.3
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth44.76%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees38
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.57
Shares Outstanding192,777,100
10 Day Avg. Volume415,050
30 Day Avg. Volume377,883
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)5.24
Price to Sales (P/S)21.54
P/FCF Ratio-55.81
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$419.96Price Target Upside29.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)8.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.68B
Franco-Nevada Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a gold-focused royalty and streaming company in Latin America, the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Mining and Energy. The company manages its portfolio with a focus on ...
How the Company Makes Money
Franco-Nevada makes money primarily by acquiring royalty and streaming interests that give it the right to receive either (a) a percentage of revenue or production from a mine (royalties) or (b) the right to purchase a portion of metal production ...
Franco-Nevada Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance for 2025 (record revenue, EBITDA, net income, margins, and near‑top guidance execution), supported by a debt‑free balance sheet, growing dividend, and accretive, low‑cost resource additions. Key risks and lowlights include rising per‑unit depletion and cash costs, several asset‑specific uncertainties (notably Cobre Panama timing and several true‑ups/buyback accounting items), and exposure to commodity price volatility. Overall, the positive results, strong cash position, and pipeline of low‑cost acquisitions significantly outweigh the highlighted uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Financial Results
Total revenue for 2025 rose 64% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA increased 74% for the year. Fourth-quarter revenue was a record $597.3 million (up 86% YoY) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $541.2 million (up 95% YoY). Adjusted net income for Q4 was $356.2 million ($1.85 per share), up 94% versus prior year.
Negative Updates
Rising Per‑Unit Cost and Depletion
Cash cost per GEO rose from $242 in 2020 to $325 in 2025 (a 34% increase). Depletion expense increased to $87.3 million in 2025 from $60 million the prior year, driven by higher stream ounces sold and the start of depletion on recent acquisitions (e.g., Yanacocha, Western Limb, Porcupine, Cote).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results
Total revenue for 2025 rose 64% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA increased 74% for the year. Fourth-quarter revenue was a record $597.3 million (up 86% YoY) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $541.2 million (up 95% YoY). Adjusted net income for Q4 was $356.2 million ($1.85 per share), up 94% versus prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided total GEOs sold for 2026 of 510,000–570,000 (90% precious metals / 10% diversified) using new fixed GEO conversion ratios (with separate ranges provided for gold, silver and PGM ounces and a revenue range for diversified assets), based on commodity assumptions of $70/bbl WTI and $3/Mcf natural gas (a $5/bbl WTI rise ≈ +7% energy revenue); this follows 2025 actuals of 519,106 GEOs (440,140 precious metal GEOs and 78,966 diversified GEOs). For 2030 Franco‑Nevada targets 555,000–615,000 GEOs (≈13% built‑in organic growth from 2025 to 2030 excluding Cobre Panama), and notes that a Cobre Panama restart (not assumed in base case) could add ~150,000–175,000 GEOs/year (they cited processing ~70,000 tonnes of copper stockpiles that would yield ~23 oz gold and ~265,000 oz silver deliveries) and lift built‑in growth to ~45%; guidance also includes projections for depletion, tax and funding commitments.Franco-Nevada Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
96
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.85B | 1.11B | 1.22B | 1.32B | 1.30B |
| Gross Profit | 1.37B | 759.30M | 766.60M | 852.60M | 822.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.63B | 989.30M | -91.00M | 1.12B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 1.13B | 552.10M | -466.40M | 700.60M | 733.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.23B | 6.33B | 5.99B | 6.63B | 6.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 669.68M | 1.45B | 1.42B | 1.20B | 539.30M |
| Total Debt | 8.58M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.00M | 6.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 605.00M | 333.80M | 225.00M | 209.20M | 184.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.62B | 6.00B | 5.77B | 6.42B | 6.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -715.31M | 421.50M | 469.60M | 858.00M | 194.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.52B | 829.50M | 991.20M | 999.50M | 955.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.07B | -537.30M | -541.10M | -145.50M | -765.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -272.08M | -240.40M | -230.10M | -189.00M | -180.20M |
Franco-Nevada Technical Analysis
Neutral
324.25
Price Trends
344.32
Negative
315.93
Positive
284.20
Positive
Market Momentum
-8.54
Positive
43.57
Neutral
36.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FNV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 324.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 340.80, below the 50-day MA of 344.32, and above the 200-day MA of 284.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -8.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:FNV.
Franco-Nevada Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$62.51B | 35.28 | 16.25% | 0.72% | 44.76% | ― | |
78 Outperform | C$47.76B | 14.12 | 30.66% | 0.43% | 36.41% | 144.79% | |
78 Outperform | C$78.39B | 23.53 | 18.53% | 0.55% | 54.48% | 68.44% | |
78 Outperform | C$24.76B | 18.00 | 22.48% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
74 Outperform | C$18.73B | 18.05 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
71 Outperform | C$9.16B | 31.70 | 14.47% | 0.55% | 37.22% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:FNV
Franco-Nevada
324.25
99.67
44.38%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
39.81
21.79
120.95%
TSE:WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals
172.65
61.81
55.76%
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
58.97
20.64
53.86%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
77.28
43.69
130.03%
TSE:OR
OR Royalties
48.86
18.60
61.47%
Franco-Nevada Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Franco-Nevada Files 2025 Year-End Disclosure with Canadian and U.S. Regulators
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Franco-Nevada Corporation is a leading gold-focused royalty and streaming company with a diversified portfolio of cash-flow-generating assets that provide investors with gold price and exploration optionality. The business is debt-free, reinvestin...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Franco-Nevada Posts Record 2025 Results on Strong Precious Metal Prices
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Franco-Nevada reported record 2025 results, driven by higher precious metal prices, increased production and a growing royalty portfolio that is heavily weighted to gold and silver. The company highlighted that Precious Metal assets accounted for ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Franco-Nevada Commits A$220 Million to Advance Bullabulling Gold Project
Positive
Feb 22, 2026
Franco-Nevada has agreed a A$220 million financing package with Minerals 260 for the Bullabulling Gold Project in Western Australia, comprising a A$170 million gross royalty and a A$50 million equity subscription. This deal effectively lifts Franc...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.