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Endeavour Mining Ord (TSE:EDV)
TSX:EDV
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Endeavour Mining
(TSX:EDV)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$81.00
▲(12.64% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven primarily by the sharp 2025 financial and cash-flow improvement alongside a stronger balance sheet. The earnings call reinforces this with record results and clear shareholder-return commitments, partially offset by 2026 cost-increase guidance and reserve/resource declines. Technically the longer-term trend is positive, but short-term momentum signals are mixed, and valuation looks fair rather than clearly cheap.
Positive Factors
Record free cash flow
Sustained, materially positive free cash flow strengthens funding for sustaining and growth capex, dividends and buybacks without relying on new debt. Over 2–6 months this improves financial flexibility to execute Assafou, support exploration and maintain capital returns even if gold prices wobble.
Very low leverage and strong liquidity
Extremely low leverage and ample liquidity provide durable downside protection and capacity to fund near-term stripping, project development and shareholder returns. This balance-sheet strength reduces refinancing and covenant risks across commodity cycles and supports multi-year plans.
Robust growth pipeline & low-cost discovery
A clear organic growth roadmap, low discovery costs and near-term development optionality (Assafou) support sustainable production expansion and reserve replacement. This reduces dependence on M&A and underpins the 2030 production goal, improving long-term cash generation potential.
Negative Factors
Reserves and resource decline
A measurable decline in P&P reserves and M&I resources erodes the underlying asset base and pressures future production if not fully replaced. Over the medium term this raises the need for sustained exploration spending and timely project development to preserve mine life and output.
Higher 2026 operating costs
Planned stripping raises unit costs until sequencing completes, while the higher Ivorian royalty permanently increases the cost baseline. Combined with FX risk, these structural headwinds will compress margins and free cash flow in 2026–27, reducing the cushion for discretionary returns.
Historical earnings volatility
The firm's results have swung materially across commodity cycles, showing losses and negative FCF in prior years. This historical volatility signals that strong 2025 performance may not be persistent absent sustained commodity and operational consistency, increasing long-term execution risk.
Endeavour Mining (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$17.44B
Dividend Yield2.31%
Average Volume (3M)833.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.0
Beta (1Y)1.69
Revenue Growth73.23%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees5,659
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.27
Shares Outstanding242,572,240
10 Day Avg. Volume815,195
30 Day Avg. Volume833,364
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.05
Price to Book (P/B)4.12
Price to Sales (P/S)2.89
P/FCF Ratio10.81
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$100.08Price Target Upside39.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)7.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.76B
Endeavour Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEndeavour Mining plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gold mining company in West Africa. Its project portfolio includes 90% owned Houndé, Mana, Boungou, and Wahgnion mines in Burkina Faso; 85% owned Ity mine located in Côte d'Ivoire; 90% owned Sabodala-Massawa mine situated in Senegal; and Fetekro, Kalana, Bantou, Nabanga, and Afema development projects. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyEndeavour Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling refined gold (typically doré bars) from its operating mines. Revenue is recognized largely from gold sales, with the realized gold price (linked to prevailing market prices) and the quantity of gold sold being the main drivers of top-line performance. The company’s cash generation depends on (1) production volumes (ore mined and processed, grades, recovery rates), (2) operating costs (mining, processing, labor, consumables, energy/fuel, maintenance, logistics, and site administration), and (3) sustaining and growth capital required to keep mines operating and extend mine life. Additional factors that can materially affect earnings and cash flow include royalties and production taxes payable to host governments, income taxes, foreign exchange movements (as many costs are incurred in local currencies while gold is typically sold in U.S. dollars), and hedging or other risk-management activities if used. Any by-product revenue streams, specific offtake/marketing arrangements, or named strategic partnerships are null.
Endeavour Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record free cash flow, significant margin expansion, rapid deleveraging and record shareholder returns, underpinned by a robust growth and exploration pipeline (Assafou, BIOX improvements, satellite targets). Notable near-term headwinds include a decline in reported reserves/resources (partly timing-related), impairments, a retroactive increase in Côte d'Ivoire royalties and a 2026 cost uptick driven mainly by planned stripping at Houndé and Lafigué. Overall, the positive cash generation, balance sheet strength and clear capital return commitment materially outweigh the lowlights, which are largely manageable or timing-related.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Cash Generation and Profitability
Generated record free cash flow of $1.2 billion in 2025 (up 269% YoY), equivalent to $955 per ounce produced; realized gold price of $3,244/oz; adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion (up 75% YoY) and adjusted net earnings of $782 million (up 244% YoY).
Strong Production Performance
Produced 1.2 million ounces in 2025 (production up 10% YoY). Q4 production was 298,000 ounces (increase of 34,000 oz vs prior quarter). Achieved the top half of guidance and has met or beaten guidance 12 times in the last 13 years.
Margin Expansion
All-in sustaining margin expanded to $1,811/oz for the year (up 60% vs 2024). Q4 all-in sustaining margin increased to $2,225/oz, a $547 increase quarter-on-quarter.
Rapid Deleveraging and Strong Liquidity
Net debt reduced by $574 million during the year; year-end leverage of 0.07x net debt/EBITDA (well below through-the-cycle target of 0.5x). Gross debt reduced by $511 million and liquidity of over $1.1 billion available.
Record Shareholder Returns and Increased Commitment
Returned a record $435 million to shareholders in 2025 ($360 per ounce), 93% above minimum commitment. Since program start returned $1.6 billion (83% above minimum). Committed to a minimum $1 billion dividend over 2026–2028 and indicated potential for at least another ~$1 billion of supplemental dividends and buybacks at current gold prices.
Operational and Safety Excellence
Sector-leading safety performance with a long-term injury frequency rate (LTIFR) of 0.07. Operational drivers include full-year contribution from Sabodala-Massawa BIOX and Lafigué projects, BIOX throughput/recovery improvements and Lafigué plant running above nameplate.
Growth Pipeline and Exploration Success
On track for a 2030 production target of 1.5 million ounces (27% organic growth). Assafou feasibility study near completion with key permits approved and target first gold in H2 2028. Discovered 1.5 million ounces during 2025 and more than 22 million ounces of measured & indicated resource discovered over 10 years at a discovery cost <$25/oz. M&I resources increased by 13% at Assafou (maiden Pala Trend 3).
Improving Quarterly Operational Cash Flow
Q4 operating cash flow of $609 million (up 97% vs Q3). Q4 adjusted EBITDA $681 million (up 46% vs prior quarter) and Q4 free cash flow $476 million (up 187% vs Q3).
Negative Updates
Reserves and Resource Decline
Proved & probable (P&P) reserves decreased 10% (down 1.8 million ounces) to 16.6 million ounces due to 1.4 million ounces of production depletion and reserve model optimizations. Measured & indicated resources decreased 4% (down 1.1 million ounces) to 25 million ounces; discoveries only partially offset depletion.
Higher Costs Forecast for 2026
All-in sustaining costs expected to increase in 2026 driven primarily by waste stripping at Houndé and Lafigué (processing lower grades and reliance on stockpiles), the Côte d'Ivoire sliding scale royalty increase from 6% to 8%, and a weaker USD/EUR FX assumption. Management noted ~15% of the AISC increase is from royalties and FX, with ~85% from mine sequencing/stripping and stockpile drawdown.
Exploration Impairments and Other Charges
Recorded $193 million of impairments largely across exploration properties (including Bantou, Nabanga and Kalana) and $44 million of other expenses including $37 million of incremental retroactive royalties in Côte d'Ivoire. Net losses on financial instruments totaled $62 million (realized losses on gold collars).
Reserve Reporting Lag at Key Mines
Sabodala and Ity reserves were not updated using the higher $1,900/oz price because pit shells were not updated in time; full benefit of higher gold prices to reserves is expected only after pit shell updates later in the year, creating near-term uncertainty in reported reserves.
Short-Term Production Drag at Specific Mines
Houndé and Lafigué are entering phases of higher stripping and lower grades in 2026, causing slightly lower production and higher costs in the near term; management expects grade and cost improvements in 2027 once stripping phases complete.
Regulatory and Fiscal Risk
Retroactive royalty increase in Côte d'Ivoire materially impacted costs in 2025 and the company flagged the potential for similar fiscal pressure elsewhere (Senegal discussions not definitive), creating a risk to future margins and project economics.
Company Guidance
Endeavour guided that after a record 2025 (production 1.2M oz at AISC $1,433/oz; royalty‑adjusted AISC $1,305/oz; realized gold price $3,244/oz) the group expects 2026 production to be relatively stable, but all‑in sustaining costs to rise (driven mainly by waste stripping at Houndé and Lafigué, the Côte d’Ivoire sliding‑scale royalty increase from 6% to 8%, and a weaker USD/EUR assumption), with costs expected to improve from 2027 as stripping completes; key metrics from 2025 include adjusted EBITDA $2.3B (up 75% YoY), adjusted net earnings $782M (up 244% YoY), free cash flow $1.156B (≈$955/oz and up 269% YoY), Q4 production 298k oz, Q4 adjusted EBITDA $681M, Q4 operating cash flow $609M and Q4 free cash flow $476M, net debt/EBITDA of 0.07x at year‑end with >$1.1B liquidity, P&P reserves of 16.6M oz (down 10%) and M&I resources of 25M oz (down 4%) after 1.5M oz of discoveries in 2025; management reiterated a minimum $1B dividend commitment for 2026–28 (based on $3,000/oz) with the potential to supplement that with at least another ~$1B of buybacks/dividends at current spot prices, a 2030 production target of 1.5M oz (≈27% organic growth), and progress on Assafou (feasibility study imminent, first gold targeted H2 2028).Endeavour Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a strong 2025 rebound: improved profitability (net margin ~16%), stronger ROE (~23%), better leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.23) and positive, growing free cash flow. The main offset is durability risk from recent multi-year losses (2022–2024) and variability in margins and cash generation (including negative FCF in 2023 and FCF below net income in 2025).Income Statement
Profitability and growth improved materially in 2025, with revenue up ~10% and a strong return to solid net profitability (net margin ~16%) after losses in 2022–2024. Operating performance also stepped up sharply versus prior years, with much stronger operating earnings margins in 2025. Offsetting this, results have been volatile across the cycle—net income was negative for three consecutive years (2022–2024), and margins have swung meaningfully, which is typical for gold producers but still a clear risk to earnings durability.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks conservative and trending better, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.23 in 2025 from ~0.43 in 2024, supporting financial flexibility. Equity remains sizable relative to total assets, and 2025 profitability translated into a strong return on equity (~23%) after negative returns in 2022–2024. The key weakness is the multi-year inconsistency in returns (including negative equity returns in several years), highlighting that balance-sheet strength is partly reliant on maintaining commodity-driven profitability.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation strengthened notably in 2025, with operating cash flow rising and free cash flow expanding strongly (free cash flow growth ~28%) and remaining positive. Cash conversion is decent, but not perfect—free cash flow was meaningfully below net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income ~0.68), and free cash flow was negative in 2023, underscoring variability and potential sensitivity to capex and operating conditions.70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.31B | 2.68B | 2.11B | 2.07B | 2.64B |
| Gross Profit | 2.10B | 868.70M | 745.30M | 759.70M | 1.50B |
| EBITDA | 2.54B | 857.90M | 864.70M | 1.20B | 1.14B |
| Net Income | 691.09M | -300.20M | -208.90M | -57.30M | 215.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.60B | 5.51B | 5.86B | 6.41B | 6.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 452.48M | 418.60M | 517.20M | 962.30M | 906.20M |
| Total Debt | 684.45M | 1.17B | 1.11B | 871.80M | 893.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.18B | 2.52B | 2.31B | 2.33B | 2.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.03B | 2.71B | 3.23B | 3.66B | 3.92B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.15B | 257.60M | -116.10M | 503.70M | 643.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.69B | 943.30M | 646.50M | 1.02B | 1.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -516.69M | -630.00M | -820.80M | -521.40M | -511.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.17B | -439.10M | -276.60M | -385.00M | -431.10M |
Endeavour Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
71.91
Price Trends
81.40
Negative
72.07
Negative
59.74
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.73
Positive
36.07
Neutral
8.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EDV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 71.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.09, below the 50-day MA of 81.40, and above the 200-day MA of 59.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:EDV.
Endeavour Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$22.13B | 18.00 | 22.48% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
75 Outperform | C$13.01B | 14.03 | 18.40% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
74 Outperform | C$17.44B | 18.05 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $9.14B | 10.22 | 30.82% | 0.42% | 51.00% | 532.40% | |
62 Neutral | $12.94B | 39.29 | 4.51% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$7.24B | 14.58 | 12.15% | 1.71% | 34.31% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
71.91
40.54
129.23%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.