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Denison Mines (TSE:DML)
TSX:DML

Denison Mines (DML) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:DML

Denison Mines

(TSX:DML)

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Neutral 48 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
C$5.50
▲(7.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
Overall score is weighed down primarily by weak financial performance (severe recent losses, persistent negative operating/free cash flow, and sharply higher leverage). Technicals provide some offset with a generally supportive longer-term trend and neutral momentum indicators. Valuation is limited by negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Regulatory approval to construct Phoenix
Federal EA approval and the construction licence materially de-risks Phoenix's permitting path, enabling immediate site prep and construction once FID is taken. This clears a major structural barrier to converting the project into an operating asset and future production cash flows.
Construction partner appointed
Engaging Wood Canada, a global engineering and construction manager, strengthens execution capability and reduces delivery risk on a complex ISR project. Experienced project management improves schedule, cost control, and bankability—critical for long-term project realization and financing.
Strategic asset base and mill interest
Denison's Athabasca Basin portfolio and equity stake in McClean Lake provide structural competitive advantages: premier district exposure, processing optionality and potential toll-mill income. These assets offer long-term optionality to monetize projects or secure processing for future production.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative cash generation
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow indicate the business cannot self-fund development or sustain operations from internal cash. Over months this necessitates external financing, increasing dilution or debt dependence and constraining capital allocation for project buildouts.
Material increase in leverage
A marked step-up in debt and leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk over the medium term. For a developer reliant on project financing, elevated leverage increases cost of capital and limits the firm's ability to absorb delays or fund capex without partners.
Volatile revenue and deep recent losses
Sharp revenue swings and returned deep net losses show earnings are not stable or recurring. This undermines investor confidence and makes long-term planning and access to capital more difficult; successful conversion of projects to revenue is required to restore profitability.

Denison Mines (DML) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Denison Mines Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDenison Mines Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, extraction, processing, selling of, and investing in uranium properties in Canada. Its flagship project is the 95% interest owned Wheeler River uranium project located in the Athabasca Basin region in northern Saskatchewan. The company was formerly known as International Uranium Corporation and changed its name to Denison Mines Corp. in December 2006. Denison Mines Corp. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyDenison Mines makes money primarily through (1) advancing and monetizing its uranium project portfolio and (2) earning income from its ownership interests in uranium processing and related uranium-industry investments. Key revenue and earnings drivers include: (a) project-level economics tied to uranium prices and development progress—value can be realized through potential future uranium production and sales if projects reach operation, and/or through transactions such as joint-venture arrangements, asset sales, or other monetization of project interests; (b) earnings and cash-flow contributions associated with its equity interest in the McClean Lake uranium mill (operated by a third party) and related toll-milling/processing activity at that facility, to the extent distributions or equity-accounted earnings are generated; and (c) returns associated with other uranium-sector holdings/investments, where applicable (e.g., gains/losses, interest, or distributions depending on the instrument). Denison’s financial performance is therefore significantly influenced by uranium market conditions (spot and long-term pricing), permitting and development timelines in Saskatchewan, partner/operator execution on joint-venture assets and the mill, and the company’s ability to finance development and manage dilution/capital costs.

Denison Mines Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are weak: revenue has been volatile with a sharp decline into 2024 and only modest improvement in 2025, profitability deteriorated into deep losses in 2024–2025, operating and free cash flow are negative across all years shown, and leverage increased sharply in 2025—raising financial risk.
Income Statement
24
Negative
Revenue has been volatile, falling sharply from 2021 to 2024 and only modestly improving in 2025. Profitability deteriorated meaningfully in 2024–2025 with deeply negative gross profit and large operating losses, culminating in a very large net loss in 2025. While 2022–2023 showed positive net income, the swing back to heavy losses suggests earnings are not yet stable or recurring.
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
The balance sheet weakened materially in 2025 as debt rose sharply and leverage increased to well above equity, a major change versus the very low debt levels in prior years. Equity remains positive, but returns on equity turned strongly negative in 2024–2025, indicating the capital base is currently not generating shareholder returns. Overall, financial flexibility appears reduced due to the step-up in leverage.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow is negative every year shown, and free cash flow is also consistently negative, with a larger cash burn in 2025 than in 2024. Although free cash flow improved versus net income in loss years (driven by non-cash items), the core issue is that the business is not self-funding from operations. This creates ongoing reliance on financing or balance-sheet resources.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.92M4.02M1.85M8.97M20.00M
Gross Profit-80.94M-792.00K-2.04M3.62M7.10M
EBITDA-68.22M-81.81M97.27M18.81M21.68M
Net Income-217.29M-91.12M90.38M14.35M18.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.15B663.61M726.60M515.80M510.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments539.44M114.81M141.45M58.94M78.44M
Total Debt614.44M2.41M417.00K576.00K508.00K
Total Liabilities778.46M99.29M84.82M79.78M113.59M
Stockholders Equity368.37M564.32M641.78M436.02M396.69M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-118.64M-48.07M-33.90M-35.01M-22.48M
Operating Cash Flow-68.15M-40.38M-30.67M-28.14M-21.25M
Investing Cash Flow-49.52M426.00K-719.00K-6.76M-99.00M
Financing Cash Flow474.28M15.15M111.18M20.96M159.82M

Denison Mines Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price5.10
Price Trends
50DMA
5.26
Negative
100DMA
4.50
Positive
200DMA
3.77
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
45.30
Neutral
STOCH
33.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:DML, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.49, below the 50-day MA of 5.26, and above the 200-day MA of 3.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:DML.

Denison Mines Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$65.41B92.818.76%0.19%23.88%350.69%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
64
Neutral
C$10.66B-24.00-25.38%-308.46%
56
Neutral
C$723.60M113.310.20%-0.90%-93.94%
53
Neutral
C$494.34M-44.16-25.17%2.06%13.58%
48
Neutral
$4.51B-15.02-38.86%
46
Neutral
C$221.01M-25.25<0.01%22.89%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:DML
Denison Mines
5.00
2.89
136.97%
TSE:CCO
Cameco
150.23
87.08
137.91%
TSE:EU
enCore Energy
2.64
0.29
12.34%
TSE:MGA
Mega Uranium
0.58
0.29
100.00%
TSE:NXE
NexGen Energy
16.12
9.03
127.36%
TSE:URC
Uranium Royalty Corp
4.94
2.12
75.18%

Denison Mines Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Denison Greenlights Phoenix ISR Uranium Mine as McClean Output Ramps Up
Positive
Mar 11, 2026

Denison Mines has taken a final investment decision to build its Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine, following receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals, near-completion of engineering work, and the appointment of Wood Plc as construction manager. Backed by a strong balance sheet and US$345 million in financing via senior convertible notes, the company plans to begin site preparation and construction this month, targeting first production by mid-2028 and positioning Phoenix as one of the few sizable new uranium sources expected before decade-end.

Operationally, 2025 marked the successful start-up of mining at the McClean North deposit using the SABRE method, with nearly 650,000 pounds of U3O8 produced on a 100% basis, making McClean one of North America’s most productive operating uranium mines. Denison also advanced its exploration portfolio with delineation drilling and new high-grade mineralization near the Gryphon deposit, new joint ventures to ramp up regional exploration, and broader Indigenous and community support, leaving the company well placed to benefit from rising long-term uranium prices and tightening nuclear fuel markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Buy with a C$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Denison Greenlights Phoenix Uranium Mine, Construction to Start March 2026
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

Denison Mines has approved a final investment decision to build the Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine at its Wheeler River project in northern Saskatchewan, with site preparation and construction scheduled to begin in March 2026. The company expects a roughly two-year build, targeting first production by mid-2028, positioning Phoenix as the first new large-scale Canadian uranium mine in more than two decades.

Phoenix and the nearby Gryphon deposit are both expected to rank among the lowest-cost uranium operations globally, supported by extensive permitting work that culminated in recent provincial and federal approvals and a licence to construct. The move advances Denison’s strategy to become a significant near-term uranium supplier, leveraging its existing Athabasca infrastructure, joint venture interests, and mill access to strengthen its role in a tightening global uranium market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Buy with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Denison Wins Final Approval to Build Canada’s First ISR Uranium Mine
Positive
Feb 19, 2026

Denison Mines has received final federal regulatory approval from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to construct the Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine and mill at its Wheeler River project in northern Saskatchewan. With provincial approvals already in place, the licence to prepare the site and construct marks the last major regulatory step needed before construction can begin, positioning Phoenix as the first ISR uranium mine in Canada and the first large-scale Canadian uranium mine approved in more than two decades.

Management highlighted the decision as a landmark milestone that validates years of environmental assessment work, Indigenous and community engagement, and technical studies aimed at demonstrating that Phoenix can meet Canada’s stringent safety and sustainability standards. The project is considered construction-ready, with key pre-licence conditions addressed and a construction management contract awarded, allowing Denison to move quickly into site preparation once a final investment decision is made, targeting first production around mid-2028 and reinforcing its competitive standing in the global uranium sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Buy with a C$4.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Denison Taps Wood Canada to Manage Construction of Phoenix Uranium Mine
Positive
Feb 17, 2026

Denison Mines has awarded Wood Canada Limited the construction management contract for its Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine at the Wheeler River project in northern Saskatchewan, following a competitive tender process. Wood, which co-authored the 2023 feasibility study and led detailed design, will oversee processing plant construction, certain site infrastructure, and integrated project controls in close collaboration with Denison.

The agreement marks a key milestone as Denison prepares for a final investment decision and the start of construction, pending remaining federal permits for site preparation and mine and mill construction. By retaining Wood from engineering through execution, Denison aims to ensure continuity, safety, and predictable delivery over an estimated 24-month build, strengthening its position to bring one of the world’s potentially lowest-cost uranium projects into production.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Hold with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Denison Secures Grid Power for Phoenix Uranium Project in Key De-Risking Step
Positive
Jan 8, 2026

Denison Mines has secured grid power at the site of its planned Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine after SaskPower completed a new 138kV transmission line connection, a key step in de-risking the project’s early construction phase. The roughly 6-kilometre line ties Phoenix into the same northern Saskatchewan grid that supplies existing uranium operations in the Athabasca Basin, giving the project access to up to 8.8 MW of reliable, cost-effective power under a five-year minimum-purchase agreement funded by the Wheeler River Joint Venture. With long-lead on-site electrical distribution equipment already procured and scheduled for installation in the first year of construction, Denison views this milestone as a competitive advantage that supports critical infrastructure such as the planned freeze wall around the initial mining area, although the formal start of construction still depends on final regulatory approvals and an internal investment decision.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Buy with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Denison Mines Signals Construction Readiness for Phoenix ISR Uranium Project
Positive
Jan 2, 2026

Denison Mines says it is ready to make a final investment decision and begin construction of its flagship Phoenix in-situ recovery uranium mine at the Wheeler River property, targeting a two-year build and first production by mid-2028, pending final regulatory approvals expected in early 2026. The company reports substantial progress in 2025 on federal and provincial permitting, detailed engineering and procurement, with key long-lead electrical infrastructure on schedule and most project engineering complete, while updating its initial capital cost estimate and affirming that Phoenix could become Canada’s first new large-scale uranium mine since Cigar Lake, timed to capture rising uranium demand and reinforce its strategic position in the nuclear fuel supply chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Hold with a C$3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Denison Mines Forms Strategic Uranium Exploration Joint Ventures with Skyharbour
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

Denison Mines has successfully completed a transaction with Skyharbour Resources, leading to the establishment of four joint ventures to explore uranium near Denison’s key Wheeler River Project. These joint ventures enhance collaborative opportunities, advance exploration efforts, and allow Denison to increase its operational stake in specific ventures. This move strategically strengthens Denison’s position in the uranium mining sector, emphasizing its commitment to optimizing operations in the Athabasca Basin. The development is expected to bolster the company’s long-term industry competitiveness and value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DML) stock is a Hold with a C$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Denison Mines stock, see the TSE:DML Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 12, 2026