Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.45B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 929.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 152.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.86
• Revenue Growth: -8.49%
• EPS Growth: 109.18%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 405
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Silver
• EPS (TTM): -0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 130,770,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,048,869
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 929,929
• PEG Ratio: 1.39
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 27.97
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -48.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$21.25
• Price Target Upside: 91.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Aya Gold & Silver's overall score reflects a mix of financial stability and operational challenges. Strengths include a robust balance sheet and promising corporate events such as exceeding milling capacity. However, the high P/E ratio, technical indicators, and cash flow difficulties present significant risks.

Positive Factors

Mine Expansion

The ongoing expansion of Aya's Zgounder mine is expected to substantially increase silver production beginning in 2025.

Mining Performance

Aya's transition to focus more on open pit production is expected to improve performance compared to the underground mine.

Negative Factors

Production Costs

Q4 production costs were higher than estimated, with adjusted cash costs exceeding the previous estimate.

Revenue

Q4 revenue of $9M was below the estimate of $15M, driven by lower silver sales.

Silver Production

Q4 silver production of 491koz was below the 593koz estimate due to slightly lower throughput and grade.

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metal properties in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, tungsten, molybdenum, uranium, and copper deposits. Its flagship project is the Zgounder property located approximately 265 kms east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco. Aya Gold & Silver Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Montreal, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Aya Gold & Silver generates revenue primarily through the extraction, processing, and sale of gold and silver. The company owns and operates mining sites where it employs modern mining techniques to efficiently extract these precious metals from the earth. Once extracted, the metals are processed and refined to meet industry standards and are then sold to various buyers, including industrial users and investors. Additionally, Aya Gold & Silver may form strategic partnerships with other mining firms or local governments to enhance its operational capacity and access new resources, contributing to its revenue growth. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global commodity prices, production costs, and the successful expansion of its mining operations.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aya Gold & Silver shows financial resilience with a strong balance sheet, low leverage, and improved net profitability. However, challenges persist with declining profit margins, operational inefficiencies, and negative cash flow ratios, indicating concerns in revenue growth and cash flow management.

Income Statement

Aya Gold & Silver showed a mixed performance in its TTM income statement. The gross profit margin decreased to 29.18% from 36.89% in the previous year, indicating a decline in cost efficiency. The net profit margin improved significantly to 19.16%, driven by higher net income despite a decrease in revenue. The TTM revenue fell by 4.67% compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales growth. The negative EBIT margin of -7.05% suggests operational inefficiencies, though the EBITDA margin remains positive at 14.56%, indicating the company still benefits from non-operating income or adjustments.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet remains robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, reflecting strong equity backing relative to debt. The return on equity improved significantly to 2.78%, albeit still low, showing better returns for shareholders. The equity ratio at 64.64% indicates a solid capital structure with a high proportion of assets financed by equity, suggesting stability and lower financial risk.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, suggesting that operational profits are not translating into free cash flow, potentially impacting future investments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
40.85M	42.85M	38.24M	34.30M	13.82M	6.08M
	Gross Profit
11.92M	15.81M	10.28M	16.01M	4.04M	1.31M
	EBIT
-2.88M	4.93M	2.65M	5.88M	-1.88M	739.31K
	EBITDA
5.95M	14.29M	7.93M	8.54M	330.67K	2.05M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
7.83M	5.50M	1.40M	1.27M	-1.78M	-576.51K
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
19.02M	49.83M	39.36M	81.67M	30.53M	16.62M
	Total Assets
46.36M	333.06M	156.80M	161.26M	72.08M	48.16M
	Total Debt
72.02K	58.79M	287.00K	425.88K	316.33K	77.97K
	Net Debt
-18.95M	8.96M	-39.07M	-81.24M	-30.22M	-16.54M
	Total Liabilities
7.13M	107.92M	26.50M	21.26M	10.15M	7.28M
	Stockholders Equity
39.24M	220.72M	125.72M	132.95M	61.03M	40.49M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-113.80M	-106.25M	-33.67M	-2.74M	-2.66M	-2.55M
	Operating Cash Flow
-5.30M	21.19M	9.65M	17.54M	1.28M	3.57M
	Investing Cash Flow
-106.26M	-145.44M	-48.46M	-23.59M	-6.48M	-6.13M
	Financing Cash Flow
115.57M	133.35M	440.60K	57.91M	18.29M	-602.32K

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.11, below the 50-day MA of 11.94, and below the 200-day MA of 13.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AYA	61 Neutral	C$1.45B	152.08	-9.39%	―	-8.49%	109.18%
Sector *	47 Neutral	$2.64B	-3.21	-21.68%	3.30%	4.19%	-30.23%
BHS	23 Underperform	C$12.27M	―	-4989.61%	―	―	-150.85%

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Aya Gold & Silver Exceeds Milling Capacity at Zgounder Mine

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has surpassed the nameplate milling capacity at its newly expanded Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The new processing plant, which began operations in November 2024 and achieved commercial production by December, processed 65,990 tonnes of ore over a 30-day period, exceeding its intended capacity. The integration of the flotation plant slurry into the leaching circuit has improved silver recovery rates and increased the value of the silver produced. The company aims to stabilize its processing rate above 3,000 tonnes per day, showcasing rapid ramp-up performance and setting the stage for strong production in 2025.

Aya Gold & Silver Announces Promising 2024 Exploration Results in Morocco

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has reported significant progress in its 2024 exploration program at the Zgounder Silver Mine and Boumadine Project in Morocco. The Zgounder Mine drilling revealed notable silver mineralization at depth, with multiple high-grade silver intercepts, indicating potential expansion of the open pit and regional exploration success. At the Boumadine Project, the exploration extended the main mineralized trends, with intersections showing substantial silver equivalent grades, indicating promising prospects for further mineral resource development in the region.

Aya Gold & Silver Reports High-Grade Silver Findings at Zgounder Mine

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced significant high-grade silver drill results from its exploration efforts at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. These results, especially from key drill holes, indicate strong continuity of silver mineralization, suggesting a potential increase in high-grade silver ounces and supporting plans to expand open-pit operations in the near future. The findings underscore opportunities for resource expansion, potentially enhancing the company’s position in the silver mining sector.

Aya Gold & Silver Achieves First Silver Pour Milestone

Aya Gold & Silver has successfully completed the first silver pour from its expanded Zgounder Mine in Morocco, marking a critical step towards commercial production. The company achieved a processing rate of 2,000 tonnes per day shortly after the mill’s initial ore processing, with recovery rates exceeding 80% and expected to improve. This milestone positions Aya as a leading, pure-play silver producer as it continues to optimize operations.

Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising Drill Results

Aya Gold & Silver has announced impressive high-grade silver drill results from its exploration at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, showcasing significant silver concentrations in multiple zones. This exploration underscores the potential for increased silver yields, exciting news for stakeholders and investors in the mining sector.

Aya Gold & Silver’s Strategic Moves and Expansion Progress

Aya Gold & Silver reports significant progress in its Zgounder Mine expansion, with nearly complete construction and a strong financial position despite a slight revenue decrease in Q3 2024. The company is also focusing on exploration programs and the strategic spinout of gold properties, aiming to capitalize on new opportunities and enhance its portfolio in the current bull market.