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Alamos Gold (TSE:AGI)
TSX:AGI

Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

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Alamos Gold

(TSX:AGI)

77Outperform
Alamos Gold's strong financial performance, coupled with positive earnings call insights, drives its stock score. The company benefits from robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and strategic investments in production capacity. However, a high P/E ratio and modest dividend yield present valuation concerns. Technical indicators suggest positive momentum, but investors should be cautious of potential overvaluation.
Positive Factors
Analyst Recommendation
Analyst recommends a 'BUY' rating for the stock.
Financial Stability
Management defends dividend sustainability, highlighting confidence in financial stability.
Net Asset Value
The company's net asset value has increased due to a rise in reserves.
Negative Factors
Cost Inflation
Near-term cost guidance has increased due to ongoing cost inflation and increased production from Mulatos.

Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlamos gold holding oorperatief u.a. operates as a subsidiary of Alamos Gold Inc.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlamos Gold makes money primarily through the sale of gold extracted from its mining operations. The company generates revenue by mining and processing gold ore, which is then refined and sold as gold bullion to various buyers, including financial institutions, gold refiners, and industrial users. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of gold from its operating mines, with additional earnings derived from the sale of by-products such as silver. Alamos Gold's financial performance is influenced by factors such as gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiency. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which can enhance its exploration and development capabilities, thereby contributing to its overall profitability.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alamos Gold demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, and cash flow is healthy despite capital expenditure impacts, indicating strategic growth initiatives.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alamos Gold has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from $683.1M in 2019 to $1.35B in 2024. The Gross Profit Margin improved from 23.68% in 2019 to 44.24% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. The Net Profit Margin also increased from 14.07% in 2020 to 21.11% in 2024, reflecting effective cost management. However, fluctuations in EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest potential volatility in operating performance.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet is robust, with a low Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.08 in 2024, highlighting conservative leverage. The Equity Ratio is strong at 67.16%, indicating a solid equity base against total assets. Return on Equity (ROE) improved to 7.93% in 2024. While the overall financial position is stable, the modest ROE suggests room for enhancing shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Alamos Gold's cash flow is healthy, with a Free Cash Flow increase from -$3.2M in 2019 to $235.8M in 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 2.32 in 2024, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, consistent capital expenditures impact free cash flow, though they may support future growth.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.35B1.02B821.20M823.60M748.10M
Gross Profit
595.80M385.60M212.30M289.50M272.60M
EBIT
561.90M318.10M144.60M235.60M227.60M
EBITDA
724.40M486.40M321.20M176.14M387.90M
Net Income Common Stockholders
284.30M210.00M37.10M-66.70M144.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
351.20M237.80M148.40M196.40M264.20M
Total Assets
5.34B4.00B3.67B3.62B3.64B
Total Debt
286.60M994.88K400.00K400.00K500.00K
Net Debt
-40.60M-224.80M-129.40M-172.10M-220.00M
Total Liabilities
1.75B1.08B953.10M885.90M785.00M
Stockholders Equity
3.58B2.92B2.72B2.74B2.85B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
235.80M123.80M-15.20M-7.80M67.50M
Operating Cash Flow
661.10M472.70M298.50M356.50M368.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-467.10M-351.80M-312.70M-357.10M-314.10M
Financing Cash Flow
-89.40M-26.00M-28.40M-47.30M-15.60M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price40.94
Price Trends
50DMA
35.57
Positive
100DMA
31.66
Positive
200DMA
28.75
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.56
Negative
RSI
65.60
Neutral
STOCH
88.77
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.23, above the 50-day MA of 35.57, and above the 200-day MA of 28.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSAGI
77
Outperform
$17.22B42.918.74%0.34%33.75%32.86%
48
Neutral
$1.91B-1.66-22.29%3.86%0.68%-27.44%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
41.15
21.03
104.47%
AEM
Agnico Eagle
123.47
62.43
102.28%
GOLD
Barrick Gold
20.45
4.39
27.33%
KGC
Kinross Gold
14.93
8.54
133.65%
NGD
New Gold
3.64
1.92
111.63%
BTG
B2Gold
3.32
0.94
39.50%

Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 19, 2025 | % Change Since: 26.96% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a strong operational and financial performance for Alamos Gold Inc., with significant growth in reserves and a positive outlook for production growth and cost reduction. However, there were challenges with higher costs and production issues at certain operations.
Highlights
Record Operational and Financial Year
Alamos Gold Inc. reported record revenue, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow. Production increased 7% to 567,000 ounces, meeting full-year guidance. A record free cash flow of $272 million was generated.
Strong Financial Position
With ongoing free cash flow, $327 million in cash, and total liquidity of over $800 million, Alamos Gold Inc. remains well-positioned to fund growth initiatives.
Three-Year Growth Outlook
Alamos Gold Inc. outlined a 24% production growth over the next three years, with production expected to reach 700,000 ounces by 2027 and all-in sustaining costs expected to decrease by 8%.
Exploration Success
Global reserves increased 31% to 14 million ounces. Island Gold reserves increased 32% to 2.3 million ounces, with grades increasing 11% to 11.4 grams per ton.
Magino Acquisition and Synergies
Magino mine acquisition led to significant synergies, including $100 million realized in 2024 and 2025, with further synergies expected to be realized over the life of the mine.
Lowlights
Higher Costs at Young Davidson
Young Davidson mine experienced higher all-in sustaining costs due to inflation, lower grades, and timing of sustaining capital expenditures.
Magino Production Challenges
Magino produced 16,200 ounces in the fourth quarter, with downtime affecting production due to crusher replacement taking longer than anticipated.
Lower Grades at Young Davidson
Grades mined in 2024 at Young Davidson were lower than guided, resulting in higher costs per ounce.
Company Guidance
In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, Alamos Gold Inc. reported significant achievements, including a 7% increase in production to 567,000 ounces, aligning with the full-year guidance. This was accompanied by record revenue, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow of $272 million. The company maintained costs within guidance, supported by robust gold prices. Alamos projected a 7% production growth to approximately 605,000 ounces in 2025, with plans to reach 700,000 ounces in 2027, representing a 24% increase over three years. The all-in sustaining costs are expected to decrease by 8% during this period, driven by low-cost growth initiatives and the completion of the Phase Three expansion at Island Gold. The company also announced a construction decision for the Lynn Lake project, anticipating initial production in early 2028, which is expected to elevate annual production to approximately 900,000 ounces. Reserves increased by 31% to 14 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive year of reserve growth. The company ended the year with $327 million in cash and total liquidity exceeding $800 million, positioning it well to fund its growth initiatives internally.

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Sells Quartz Mountain Project for $21 Million and Equity Stake
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the sale of its non-core Quartz Mountain Gold Project in Oregon to Q-Gold Resources Ltd. for up to $21 million and a 9.9% equity stake in Q-Gold. This transaction aligns with Alamos’ strategy to monetize non-core assets and focus on high-return growth projects like the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the Lynn Lake project. The deal, expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, will allow Alamos to participate in the future success of Quartz Mountain as a significant shareholder, enhancing its industry positioning and providing potential benefits to stakeholders.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Schedules Q1 2025 Results Release and Annual Meeting
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced that it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on April 30, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 1, 2025. Additionally, the company will hold its Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders virtually on May 29, 2025. These events will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alamos Gold Completes Annual Filings for 2024
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the completion of its annual filings, including the 2024 annual report and audited financial statements, with the SEC and Canadian securities authorities. This filing marks a significant step in maintaining transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting the company’s operations by reinforcing investor confidence and supporting its market position.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Introduces Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, continuing its 15-year streak of dividend payments, with $41 million returned to shareholders in 2024. The company also introduced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into common shares at a 1% discount, enhancing investment opportunities without transaction costs.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Achieves Record Production and Financial Performance in 2024
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. reported record financial and operational performance in 2024, with a 7% increase in gold production to 567,000 ounces, driven by strong performances at its Mulatos District and Island Gold operations. The company achieved a record free cash flow of $272 million, supported by higher gold prices and cost management, while investing in growth initiatives such as the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and an extensive exploration program that increased global mineral reserves by 31%.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Boosts Mineral Reserves by 31% Following Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced a substantial increase in its global mineral reserves by 31%, reaching 14.0 million ounces of gold, largely due to the acquisition of the Magino project and enhanced exploration outcomes at Island Gold. The company’s strategic moves, including the expansion of mineral reserves and resources, particularly at Island Gold and through the acquisition of Magino, are expected to bolster its long-term gold production capabilities and strengthen its market position, with further expansion plans to be detailed in upcoming studies.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Extends Lynn Lake Project with High-Return Satellite Deposits
Positive
Feb 13, 2025

Alamos Gold has announced development plans for its Burnt Timber and Linkwood satellite deposits, which are set to significantly extend the life of its Lynn Lake project in Canada. The inclusion of these deposits is expected to boost the project’s economics, extending its mine life to 27 years and enhancing long-term production rates with a high after-tax internal rate of return of 54%. This development promises lower costs and higher margins, solidifying Alamos Gold’s position in the industry and offering substantial returns for stakeholders.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Receives Environmental Permit for Puerto Del Aire Project Construction
Positive
Jan 29, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has received approval from Mexico’s Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources to amend its environmental impact assessment, enabling the commencement of construction on the Puerto Del Aire project in the Mulatos District. This project is anticipated to significantly extend the mine life of the district with a high-grade underground deposit, offering substantial exploration upside. With initial capital spending planned between $37 to $40 million for 2025, the project is projected to start production by mid-2027, targeting an average annual gold production of 127,000 ounces in the first four years. The economic study suggests a low-cost, high-return venture with an after-tax NPV of $269 million and an IRR of 46% at a base gold price of $1,950 per ounce.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.