Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$22.13B
• Dividend Yield: 0.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.02M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.89
• Revenue Growth: 34.64%
• EPS Growth: 115.75%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,400
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 419,880,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 912,850
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,015,147
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 59.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$76.97
• Price Target Upside: 46.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.80B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: C$60.00 ▲(13.85% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid recent profit growth, conservative leverage, and solid operating cash flow) and a positive technical trend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call adds support via higher production and lower-cost guidance, while valuation is the main constraint given the ~20x P/E and low dividend yield, alongside execution risk from recent operational issues and heavy near-term capital spending.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Strong and improving operating cash flow and record free cash flow create durable funding for growth, dividends and buybacks without external financing. Sustained cash generation increases flexibility to weather metal-price cycles and funds the company’s internally funded expansion plans.

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage provides financial flexibility for capital-intensive projects and shields the company from refinancing risk during commodity cycles. A conservative balance sheet supports continued internal funding of expansions and a materially increased dividend without pressuring liquidity.

Reserve growth and high-return projects

Meaningful reserve additions and a clearly defined Island Gold expansion underpin multi-year production growth and lower AISC. High-return project economics and a larger reserve base support sustainably higher output and long-term free cash flow generation once expansions reach steady state.

Negative Factors

Operational reliability

Recurring weather, seismic rehabilitation and throughput setbacks show execution risk that can persist across seasons. Lower-than-expected production raises unit costs and delays cash flow from projects, testing the company’s ability to deliver multi-year guidance and planned margin improvements.

Mill underperformance and capex intensity

Underperforming mill throughput and high near-term capital spending increase execution and delivery risk for promised volume and AISC cuts. Heavy capex elevates complexity and the need for flawless project execution to realize the forecasted step-change in margins and free cash flow.

Cyclicality of free cash flow

Historical variability in free cash flow highlights sensitivity to metal prices and operational disruptions. Even with recent improvement, cyclicality can constrain consistent reinvestment and shareholder returns in down cycles, making long-term planning and payout sustainability more uncertain.

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alamos gold holding oorperatief u.a. operates as a subsidiary of Alamos Gold Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

Alamos Gold generates revenue primarily by producing and selling gold. At its operating mines, the company mines ore and processes it (e.g., crushing/grinding and recovery methods such as leaching) to produce gold doré, which it sells to third-party refiners, bullion banks, or commodity buyers at prevailing market prices (typically linked to spot gold prices, net of refining, transportation, and other selling costs). The core revenue stream is therefore gold sales volume multiplied by realized gold prices. Secondary revenue can come from by-product metal sales when present in the ore and recovered during processing; if not material or not disclosed, this is null. Profitability is driven by production levels, ore grades, metallurgical recoveries, operating costs (mining, processing, labor, energy, consumables), sustaining capital to maintain operations, and royalties/taxes in the jurisdictions where it operates. The company may also use risk-management practices such as limited hedging or contractual sales arrangements; specific details vary by period and are null if not disclosed. Additional factors influencing earnings include reserve replacement through exploration success, project development execution (permitting, construction, ramp-up), and access to financing (cash flow from operations, credit facilities, or capital markets) to fund sustaining and growth capital.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recent fundamentals with sharply higher revenue and net income in 2025, a conservatively levered balance sheet, and solid operating cash flow. The main drag is cyclicality and uneven free-cash-flow conversion (including negative FCF in 2021–2022 and weaker conversion in 2024), which increases through-cycle reliability risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the last several years (from ~$748M in 2020 to ~$1.84B in 2025), including double-digit growth in 2025. Profitability also improved materially, with net income rising from ~$284M (2024) to ~$901M (2025). The main weakness is historical volatility: results were much weaker in 2021–2022 (including a net loss in 2021 and very low profits in 2022), which is common in gold but still increases earnings risk across cycles.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with modest debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity was ~0.08 in 2024) and a large equity base that has grown over time. Total assets have also increased meaningfully (to ~$6.37B in 2025), supporting scale and flexibility. The key watch-out is that debt rose versus 2023’s unusually low level, so investors should monitor whether leverage continues to trend up as the company grows.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow has been consistently positive and rose to ~$789M in 2025 (from ~$661M in 2024). Free cash flow is positive in recent years (about ~$271M in 2025), showing improving funding capacity for reinvestment and shareholder returns. However, free cash flow has been uneven across the cycle (negative in 2021–2022), and in 2024 free cash flow was meaningfully lower than net income (about 36% conversion), indicating earnings are not fully translating into free cash at all times.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.84B	1.35B	1.02B	821.20M	823.60M
Gross Profit	980.26M	595.80M	385.60M	212.30M	289.50M
EBITDA	1.11B	735.00M	486.40M	321.20M	176.14M
Net Income	901.31M	284.30M	210.00M	37.10M	-66.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.37B	5.34B	4.00B	3.67B	3.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	680.76M	351.20M	237.80M	148.40M	196.40M
Total Debt	233.77M	286.60M	994.88K	400.00K	400.00K
Total Liabilities	1.94B	1.75B	1.08B	953.10M	885.90M
Stockholders Equity	4.44B	3.58B	2.92B	2.72B	2.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	271.17M	235.80M	123.80M	-15.20M	-7.80M
Operating Cash Flow	789.18M	661.10M	472.70M	298.50M	356.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-345.75M	-467.10M	-351.80M	-312.70M	-357.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-143.16M	-89.40M	-26.00M	-28.40M	-47.30M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 52.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.43, below the 50-day MA of 61.15, and above the 200-day MA of 47.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGI	78 Outperform	C$22.13B	18.00	22.48%	0.25%	34.64%	115.75%
IMG	75 Outperform	C$13.01B	14.03	18.40%	―	56.17%	-51.73%
EDV	74 Outperform	C$17.44B	18.05	16.65%	2.31%	73.23%	―
LUG	71 Outperform	C$22.95B	24.83	60.01%	2.47%	57.32%	126.96%
ELD	67 Neutral	$8.53B	14.13	12.40%	―	44.88%	38.67%
EQX	62 Neutral	C$12.94B	39.29	4.51%	―	90.17%	-91.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

Alamos Gold Files NI 43-101 Technical Report for Island Gold Expansion

Alamos Gold has filed a technical report for the Expansion Study of its Island Gold District operation in Ontario, prepared under National Instrument 43-101 standards for mineral project disclosure. The report, which underpins previously released disclosure on the expansion, is now accessible via the company’s website and Canadian and U.S. securities filing platforms, reinforcing transparency around the project’s development plans.

By formalizing the Island Gold District Expansion Study in a compliant technical report, Alamos strengthens the technical and regulatory foundation of its growth pipeline. This step underscores the importance of Island Gold within the company’s portfolio and provides investors and other stakeholders with detailed, standardized information on the project’s potential and progression.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$62.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold maps 46% production lift by 2028 with Island Gold and Lynn Lake builds

The company issued fresh three-year guidance highlighting a plan to lift output 46% by 2028 to as much as 835,000 ounces while cutting all-in sustaining costs toward $1,200 per ounce, supported by the Island Gold shaft expansion and incremental gains at Mulatos. Management also mapped a path to one million ounces annually by 2030 as the Island Gold District expansion to 20,000 tonnes per day and the Lynn Lake development enter production, positioning Alamos to deliver higher volumes at lower cost with internally funded capital commitments of up to $940 million in 2026, $890 million in 2027, and $680 million in 2028.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Plots Major Island Gold District Expansion to Create Low-Cost Canadian Giant

Alamos Gold has released an Expansion Study for its Island Gold District in Ontario that outlines a major scale-up of operations, including increasing the Magino mill capacity to 20,000 tonnes per day and boosting combined underground and open-pit processing rates. The plan is underpinned by a 30% increase in mineral reserves to 8.3 million ounces and envisions average annual production of 534,000 ounces over 10 years post-expansion at significantly lower costs, with mine-site all-in sustaining costs projected at $1,025 per ounce, making the site one of Canada’s largest and lowest-cost gold mines. The company expects a 19-year mine life, modest growth capital of $542 million for the expansion (or $704 million including remaining Phase 3+ spending), and strong project economics with an after-tax NPV of $8.2 billion at a long-term gold price of $3,200 per ounce and 53% IRR, rising to $12.2 billion NPV and 69% IRR at $4,500 per ounce, highlighting substantial value creation and improved margins for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Extends High-Grade Mineralization at Island Gold and Cline-Pick, Signaling Further Reserve Growth

Alamos Gold has reported strong new underground and surface drilling results at its Island Gold Mine and nearby regional targets, significantly extending high-grade gold mineralization both within the main deposit and at the past-producing Cline-Pick mines near the Magino mill. The latest assays include the best intercept to date at Cline-Pick, grading 178 g/t gold over 3.5 metres, and multiple high-grade intervals in the main Island Gold zones and adjacent hanging wall and footwall structures, which are expected to support another substantial increase in underground mineral reserves. Management indicated these growing reserves will be incorporated into an upcoming Island Gold District Expansion Study aimed at underpinning a larger, more profitable operation, while the emerging potential at Cline-Pick and other nearby deposits points to additional higher-grade feed for an expanded milling complex, reinforcing Alamos’s longer-term growth and cost profile in this key Canadian gold district.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$55.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Extends High-Grade Zones Near Infrastructure at Young-Davidson Mine

Alamos Gold has reported strong underground exploration results from its Young-Davidson mine in Ontario, extending higher-grade gold mineralization in multiple hanging wall zones located near existing mine infrastructure. Drilling in the South Syenite Zone and newly defined mid-mine hanging wall zones has returned high-grade intercepts, indicating potential for additional resources adjacent to current workings, while expansion drilling within the Young-Davidson syenite continues to extend gold mineralization beyond current Mineral Reserves and Resources. The concentration of these new zones close to existing shafts and development suggests opportunities for more efficient future mining and potential mine life extension, reinforcing Young-Davidson’s role as a core long-life asset within Alamos Gold’s portfolio and underpinning the company’s production profile and growth outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Expands High-Grade Zones Near Infrastructure at Young-Davidson Mine

Alamos Gold reported new underground exploration results from its Young-Davidson mine in Ontario, highlighting extensions of higher-grade gold mineralization in multiple hanging wall zones located close to existing mine infrastructure. Drilling in the South Syenite Zone, newly defined mid-mine hanging wall zones, and the Young-Davidson syenite has intersected numerous wide, high-grade intervals that extend gold mineralization beyond current mineral reserves and resources. These results suggest significant potential to add higher-grade tonnage near active workings, which could enhance the mine’s long-term production profile and operational efficiency while reinforcing Young-Davidson’s role as a core asset within Alamos’s portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Extends Lynn Lake Mineralization and Hits High-Grade Gold at Qiqavik

Alamos Gold reported encouraging results from its 2025 exploration programs at the Lynn Lake project in Manitoba and the Qiqavik Gold project in Nunavik, Quebec, highlighting continued success in extending and defining new gold mineralization at both sites. At Lynn Lake, drilling at the Linkwood and Burnt Timber satellite deposits, as well as the East Foster area, has extended mineralization beyond the mineral reserves used in the company’s 2025 internal study, supporting expectations for further reserve and resource growth, longer mine life, higher long-term production rates and improved project economics by providing additional mill feed. At Qiqavik, Alamos’ first drilling campaign since acquiring the asset in 2024 intersected gold mineralization in all five target areas, with most holes returning grades above 1.0 g/t, and confirmed bedrock sources associated with previously identified high-grade boulder trends, reinforcing the project’s significant gold potential and its role in building a longer-term pipeline of growth projects for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$66.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Sets 2026 Investor Day to Outline Growth Plans and Updated Guidance

Alamos Gold announced it will host an Investor Day in Toronto on February 4, 2026, where senior management will deliver detailed presentations on the Island Gold District Expansion Study and provide updated three-year guidance. The event will also cover the company’s longer-term outlook, development projects, and global exploration activities, with a live webcast and subsequent on-demand replay made available to investors, underscoring Alamos’s efforts to communicate its growth plans and strategic priorities to the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Expands High-Grade Sulphide Potential with New Mulatos District Drilling Results

Alamos Gold reported strong exploration drilling results across several targets in the Mulatos District, with high-grade gold mineralization extended beyond existing Mineral Reserves at the Puerto Del Aire (PDA) project and beyond Mineral Resources at Cerro Pelon, while a new discovery at the Halcon target has revealed wide intervals of sulphide-hosted gold. The company plans to build a mill at PDA to process higher-grade sulphide ore, and the emerging sulphide potential at Cerro Pelon, Halcon and other nearby deposits such as La Yaqui Grande is positioned as additional high-grade mill feed, underscoring significant upside to the PDA project and enhancing the long-term growth and resource profile of the Mulatos District as PDA advances toward expected initial production in mid-2027.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2025 Results

Alamos Gold has scheduled the release of its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for after the market close on February 18, 2026, followed by a conference call with senior management on February 19 to discuss the performance. The company will offer access to the call via webcast and dial-in numbers, with a replay and archived webcast available until late March, underscoring its efforts to maintain regular, transparent communication with investors and other stakeholders around its financial and operational progress.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Posts Record 2025 Revenues Despite Missing Production Targets

Alamos Gold reported fourth-quarter 2025 gold production of 141,500 ounces, flat quarter-on-quarter but below its revised annual guidance as full-year output reached 545,400 ounces, with weather-related disruptions and operational challenges weighing on its Canadian mines. Despite the production shortfall, the company delivered record quarterly revenue of $568 million and record annual revenue of $1.8 billion on higher realized gold prices, expanded margins, and strong free cash flow, which helped lift its cash balance to $623 million, reduce inherited Argonaut-related debt to $200 million, and fund the partial unwinding of legacy hedges and increased share buybacks as it positions for a planned step-up in production and growth from the Island Gold District in the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.