AGF Management B NV (AGF.B) AI Stock Analysis

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AGF Management B NV

(TSX:AGF.B)

81Outperform

AGF Management B NV demonstrates strong financial performance with robust cash flow and low leverage, complemented by significant growth in assets under management and a solid dividend yield. Technical indicators point to potential short-term bearish trends, but the company's attractive valuation and positive earnings call sentiment support a favorable outlook. Overall, the stock is positioned well for stability and growth, despite some recent earnings challenges.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet

An improved balance sheet is forecasted, indicating better financial health for the company.

Financial Performance

AGF reported earnings that were significantly ahead of expectations on the back of another quarter of strong earnings contribution from AGF Capital Partners as well as a lower tax rate.

Valuation

Valuation remains compelling: AGF continues to trade well below its historical valuation multiples and, in our view, the market is not giving it enough credit for its sales outperformance.

Negative Factors

Business Scale

AGF's $53B AUM appears to lack scale in a business that increasingly demands significantly more scale, especially given fee pressures.

Net Inflows

Net inflows of $5mm, weaker than our $50mm estimate, and modestly weaker than $14mm in net inflows in Q3/24, amidst an improving environment for the Canadian mutual fund industry.

Operational Clarity

Clarity on U.S. operations is still awaited, suggesting uncertainty in this area.

AGF Management B NV (AGF.B) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

C$610.86M

Dividend Yield4.92%

Average Volume (3M)73.36K

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.2

Beta (1Y)1.11

Revenue Growth20.65%

EPS Growth-2.36%

CountryCA

Employees634

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength86

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.51

Shares Outstanding65,344,760

10 Day Avg. Volume78,162

30 Day Avg. Volume73,360

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.50

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)1.30

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)3.20

P/FCF Ratio3.20

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$12.96

Price Target Upside38.76% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

AGF Management B NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptionnull

How the Company Makes Moneynull

AGF Management B NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGF Management B NV demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flow generation is robust. Despite a decline in EBIT margins, the company's net income and cash management underscore its resilience.

Income Statement

Positive

AGF Management B NV has shown consistent revenue growth, increasing from $471.8M in 2023 to $508.4M in 2024, a growth rate of approximately 7.75%. The gross profit margin stands at 51.39%, indicating efficient cost management. However, there is a noticeable drop in EBIT and EBITDA margins due to EBIT being zero in 2024. Net profit margin is strong at 19.19%, reflecting solid profitability.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The company maintains a strong equity position, with an equity ratio of 69.10%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.08, indicating minimal leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 8.65%, suggesting efficient use of shareholder funds. The balance sheet reflects financial stability and prudent financial management.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

AGF Management B NV has demonstrated robust cash flow management, with a significant increase in free cash flow from $83.8M in 2023 to $112.4M in 2024, a growth rate of 34.05%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.17, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, further highlighting effective cash utilization.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
508.38M	471.82M	445.44M	446.96M	380.65M
	Gross Profit
261.25M	471.55M	138.76M	106.61M	104.96M
	EBIT
0.00	129.01M	71.56M	38.63M	41.04M
	EBITDA
141.68M	129.01M	83.21M	49.12M	49.26M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
97.57M	87.70M	66.65M	39.30M	173.91M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
73.13M	72.64M	79.30M	109.56M	112.18M
	Total Assets
1.63B	1.42B	1.37B	1.36B	1.35B
	Total Debt
95.83M	89.89M	102.86M	84.63M	85.66M
	Net Debt
42.88M	39.43M	44.24M	-1.85M	-8.35M
	Total Liabilities
473.62M	331.38M	338.44M	328.24M	331.36M
	Stockholders Equity
1.13B	1.09B	1.03B	1.03B	1.02B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
112.38M	83.80M	48.26M	34.53M	89.15M
	Operating Cash Flow
114.58M	87.24M	64.60M	47.80M	92.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-78.66M	-37.47M	-40.33M	-24.60M	240.43M
	Financing Cash Flow
-33.42M	-57.93M	-52.13M	-30.73M	-290.54M

AGF Management B NV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price9.34

Price Trends

50DMA

10.49

Negative

100DMA

10.63

Negative

200DMA

9.72

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.17

Negative

RSI

47.76

Neutral

STOCH

45.66

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGF.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.88, below the 50-day MA of 10.49, and below the 200-day MA of 9.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGF.B.

AGF Management B NV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AGF.B	81 Outperform	C$610.86M	6.17	8.68%	4.92%	20.65%	-2.36%
SLF	75 Outperform	$43.50B	14.42	12.87%	4.37%	-12.72%	-0.16%
MFC	75 Outperform	C$65.79B	13.39	11.03%	4.32%	7.64%	9.22%
GWO	73 Outperform	C$48.77B	12.54	15.52%	4.41%	-2.40%	42.24%
IAG	70 Outperform	C$11.22B	12.26	13.26%	2.86%	-17.69%	29.19%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$13.21B	9.26	9.39%	4.87%	16.14%	-8.87%
CIX	51 Neutral	$4.49B	―	-55.59%	2.58%	3.21%	-9107.07%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:AGF.B

AGF Management B NV

9.30

1.44

18.32%

TSE:SLF

Sun Life Financial

76.98

10.00

14.92%

TSE:MFC

Manulife Financial

38.95

8.56

28.18%

TSE:CIX

CI Financial

31.10

15.36

97.54%

TSE:IAG

iA Financial Corporation Inc

124.25

45.14

57.06%

TSE:GWO

Great-West Lifeco

51.00

12.68

33.09%

AGF Management B NV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Apr 8, 2025 | % Change Since: 2.75% | Next Earnings Date: Jun 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects a strong performance for AGF Management Limited in Q1 2025 with significant growth in AUM and fee earning assets, strong net sales in retail mutual funds, and a successful launch of new products. Despite some challenges with a decline in certain AUM categories and lower year-over-year adjusted EBITDA, the company maintains a solid financial position and continues to deliver shareholder value through dividend increases.

Highlights

AUM and Fee Earning Assets Surge

Assets under management (AUM) and fee earning assets reached $53.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, marking a 20% increase from the previous year.

Strong Net Sales in Retail Mutual Funds

The retail mutual fund business reported net sales of $342 million, significantly outpacing the Canadian mutual fund industry.

FundGrade A+ Awards

Three AGF investment funds received FundGrade A+ Awards for outstanding risk-adjusted performance.

Introduction of New Products

Launched two new alternative products: AGF NHC Tactical Alpha Fund and AGF Enhanced U.S. Income Plus Fund, aiming to provide lower volatility in the current market environment.

Dividend Increase

Declared a $0.125 per share dividend for Q1 2025, which is a 9% increase and marks the fifth consecutive year of dividend growth.

ETF and SMA AUM Growth

ETF and SMA AUM increased by 74% year-over-year to $2.9 billion.

Positive Liquid Alternative Product Performance

The U.S. listed market neutral anti-beta ETF produced a 20% return during a market downturn, showcasing strong performance of liquid alternatives.

Solid Financial Position and Flexibility

Reported adjusted diluted EPS of $0.48 and maintained $403 million in short and long-term investments with $161 million available on the credit facility.

Lowlights

Decline in Segregated Accounts and Sub-Advisory AUM

Segregated accounts and sub-advisory AUM decreased by 9% year-over-year due to a redemption fund from institutional clients shifting to passive management.

Lower Adjusted EBITDA Year-over-Year

Adjusted EBITDA was $2 million lower compared to the previous year due to an outsized long-term investment gain in Q1 of last year.

Company Guidance

In the Q1 2025 earnings call for AGF Management Limited, several key financial metrics and strategic updates were shared. The firm reported a strong quarter despite market volatility, with assets under management (AUM) and fee-earning assets rising to $53.8 billion, marking a 20% year-over-year increase. Retail mutual fund net sales were $342 million, significantly outperforming the Canadian mutual fund industry's growth. AGF's adjusted diluted earnings per share stood at $0.48, supported by $403 million in short and long-term investments, net debt of $52 million, and $161 million available on their credit facility. The Board declared a 9% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.125 per share, marking the fifth consecutive year of dividend increases. The mutual fund AUM grew by 19% to $31 billion, and the ETF and SMA AUM surged by 74% to $2.9 billion. While the segregated accounts and sub-advisory AUM decreased by 9%, private wealth AUM increased by 10% to $8.6 billion. AGF Capital Partners' AUM and fee-earning assets rose by $2.5 billion due to the Kensington transaction. The firm also highlighted the launch of two new alternative products, which are designed to provide lower volatility amid uncertain market conditions. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $48 million, driven by increased net revenues and reduced SG&A expenses. The company remains focused on strategic growth, disciplined expense management, and opportunistic capital allocation, as indicated by their strong cash flow and share buyback activities.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.