Theriva Biologics (TOVX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.35M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 83.25%
• Country: US
• Employees: 20
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 35,688,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 25,882,304
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,875,558
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -66.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.07
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: $0.17 ▼(-13.00% Downside)

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (pre-revenue losses, material cash burn, and a shrinking equity base that raises financing/dilution risk). Technical signals are mixed-to-weak with negative MACD and price below key longer-term averages. Offsetting these risks, corporate events are constructive, highlighted by positive Phase 2b data and EMA support for a pivotal Phase 3 trial.

Positive Factors

Clinical Trial Success

The positive Phase 2b results for VCN-01 suggest potential future clinical success, enhancing the company's pipeline and strategic positioning in oncology.

Low Debt Levels

Low leverage indicates financial stability, providing the company with flexibility to secure funding and invest in R&D without significant debt burden.

Innovative Product Pipeline

The focus on innovative biologic technologies positions Theriva Biologics to address unmet medical needs, potentially leading to breakthrough treatments and market leadership.

Negative Factors

Zero Revenue Generation

The lack of revenue generation highlights challenges in monetizing the product pipeline, which could hinder long-term financial sustainability and growth.

Increasing Net Losses

Rising net losses indicate operational inefficiencies and strain on financial resources, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Negative Cash Flow

Persistent negative cash flow underscores the company's reliance on external funding, raising concerns about liquidity and financial independence.

Theriva Biologics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Theriva Biologics Inc., a clinical-stage company, develops therapeutics to treat diseases in areas of high unmet need. The company's lead product candidates include SYN-004 designed to degrade various commonly used intravenous beta-lactam antibiotics in gastrointestinal (GI) tract for the prevention of microbiome damage, clostridium difficile infection (CDI), overgrowth of pathogenic organisms, the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGVHD) in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients; and SYN-020, a recombinant oral formulation for the enzyme intestinal alkaline phosphatase to treat both local GI and systemic diseases. It also develops VCN-01 for the treatment of patients with pancreatic cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, and retinoblastoma. In addition, the company develops clinical stage products, such as SYN-006 to prevent aGVHD and infection by carbapenem resistant enterococci; SYN-007 for preventing antibiotic associated diarrhea with oral ß-lactam antibiotics; SYN-005 for the prevention and treatment of pertussis; and VCN-11 to treat cancer. It has collaborations with Intrexon Corporation, The University of Texas at Austin, and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center; and a clinical trial agreement with Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis to conduct a Phase 1b/2a clinical trial of SYN-004. The company was formerly known as Synthetic Biologics, Inc. and changed its name to Theriva Biologics Inc. in October 2022. Theriva Biologics Inc. is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Theriva Biologics makes money through the development, licensing, and commercialization of its proprietary biologic products. The company's revenue streams include partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for co-development and licensing agreements, which provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of approved products. Additionally, the company may receive funding from grants and collaborations with research institutions that support its innovative therapeutic programs. These strategic partnerships and collaborations are significant contributors to the company's earnings, as they help to advance its product pipeline while sharing the risks and costs associated with drug development.

Theriva Biologics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pre-revenue with deeply negative profitability (TTM net loss about $26.2M) and significant ongoing cash burn (TTM operating/free cash flow about -$18.5M). Low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.12) is a partial offset, but equity has contracted sharply over time (to about $6.7M TTM), increasing financing/dilution risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show no revenue and deeply negative profitability, with a net loss of about $26.2M and EBIT/EBITDA also materially negative. Losses have generally widened versus earlier years (e.g., net loss ~($10.0M) in 2020 vs ~($25–26M) in 2024/TTM), indicating an elevated spend profile without offsetting commercial revenue. A modest positive is that reported losses are fairly consistent between 2024 and TTM, but overall profitability and operating leverage remain very weak.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears low with TTM total debt of ~$2.8M versus equity of ~$6.7M (debt-to-equity ~0.12), which reduces solvency risk from borrowing. However, equity has declined sharply over time (from ~$65.4M in 2021 to ~$19.1M in 2024 and ~$6.7M in TTM), reflecting ongoing losses and potential dilution/erosion of capital. Returns on equity are strongly negative across periods, signaling that the current capital base is not generating shareholder returns and the balance sheet is weakening despite limited debt.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: TTM operating cash flow is about -$18.5M and free cash flow about -$18.5M, consistent with a cash-burning development-stage profile. While free cash flow growth is positive in TTM (and modestly positive in 2024), absolute cash burn remains large and persistent from 2020–TTM. A relative strength is that free cash flow roughly tracks the net loss (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), suggesting losses are not being driven by large non-cash gains, but the company still requires external funding to sustain operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-27.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00	-87.00K	0.00
EBITDA	-26.23M	-19.29M	-21.96M	-19.20M	-14.19M	-9.96M
Net Income	-26.19M	-25.65M	-18.35M	-19.68M	-14.27M	-10.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	30.84M	35.35M	55.22M	71.86M	70.36M	8.41M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.53M	11.61M	23.18M	41.79M	67.33M	6.23M
Total Debt	2.76M	1.56M	2.15M	1.68M	1.53M	473.00K
Total Liabilities	24.10M	16.29M	15.52M	17.30M	4.96M	3.15M
Stockholders Equity	6.74M	19.07M	39.70M	54.56M	65.41M	8.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-18.51M	-16.94M	-19.20M	-19.20M	-12.90M	-12.18M
Operating Cash Flow	-18.48M	-16.94M	-19.00M	-19.08M	-12.89M	-12.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-35.00K	-1.00K	-202.00K	-4.40M	-14.00K	-9.00K
Financing Cash Flow	9.74M	5.50M	625.00K	-1.93M	74.00M	3.36M

Theriva Biologics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOVX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, below the 50-day MA of 0.21, and below the 200-day MA of 0.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TOVX.

Theriva Biologics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GLTO	56 Neutral	$43.70M	-2.12	-114.81%	―	―	37.42%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CNSP	46 Neutral	$3.36M	-0.09	-197.11%	―	―	99.87%
TOVX	45 Neutral	$6.35M	-0.03	-166.96%	―	―	83.25%
MTNB	45 Neutral	$3.85M	-0.17	-157.24%	―	―	25.19%
GLMD	44 Neutral	$3.65M	-0.19	-46.34%	―	―	70.71%

Theriva Biologics Corporate Events

Theriva Biologics advances VCN-01 toward Phase 3 trial

Theriva Biologics has updated investors on progress preparing a Phase 3 clinical trial for its lead oncolytic virus VCN-01 in first-line metastatic pancreatic cancer, supported by encouraging Phase 2b VIRAGE data showing improved overall and progression-free survival, longer duration of response, and an acceptable safety profile when VCN-01 is added to standard gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel chemotherapy in a real-world patient population. The company is also advancing VCN-01 in retinoblastoma and other solid tumor indications, reporting multiple regulatory designations in the U.S. and EU, a projected cash runway into the first quarter of 2027, and an active search for financing or partnerships, developments that collectively underscore its bid to strengthen its position in the competitive cancer therapeutics market and to move toward pivotal-stage programs in high-mortality and rare disease settings.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Sell with a $0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Theriva Biologics Gains EMA Backing for VCN-01 Phase 3

On December 29, 2025, Theriva Biologics reported that it received positive Scientific Advice from the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use on the design of a pivotal Phase 3 trial of its lead oncolytic adenovirus candidate VCN-01 in combination with gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel as first-line therapy for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The agency broadly endorsed Theriva’s plan for a single, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 3 study using overall survival as the primary endpoint, key secondary endpoints such as progression-free survival and duration of response, an adaptive trial design, and a repeated “macrocycle” dosing regimen that allows more than two doses of VCN-01, reflecting survival benefits seen in the prior VIRAGE Phase 2b trial. Theriva, which held $15.5 million in cash as of November 10, 2025 and projects runway into the first quarter of 2027, plans an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the U.S. FDA in the first half of 2026 to finalize a multinational Phase 3 protocol, with regulatory clarity expected to support partnering, manufacturing scale-up, and potential expansion of VCN-01 development into retinoblastoma, thereby sharpening the company’s late-stage oncology profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Theriva Biologics Reschedules Special Stockholder Meeting

On December 15, 2025, Theriva Biologics was unable to convene its Special Meeting of Stockholders due to insufficient shares present to constitute a quorum. Consequently, the company will reschedule the meeting to seek approval for a warrant exercise proposal, as required under a warrant inducement agreement with institutional investors. This agreement mandates that Theriva Biologics continues to call stockholder meetings every 60 days until approval is obtained or the warrants are no longer outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.