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Theriva Biologics (TOVX)
:TOVX

Theriva Biologics (TOVX) AI Stock Analysis

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TOVX

Theriva Biologics

(TOVX)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$0.21
▲(7.00% Upside)
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (pre-revenue losses, material cash burn, and a shrinking equity base that raises financing/dilution risk). Technical signals are mixed-to-weak with negative MACD and price below key longer-term averages. Offsetting these risks, corporate events are constructive, highlighted by positive Phase 2b data and EMA support for a pivotal Phase 3 trial.
Positive Factors
Clinical Trial Success
The positive Phase 2b results for VCN-01 suggest potential future clinical success, enhancing the company's pipeline and strategic positioning in oncology.
Low Debt Levels
Low leverage indicates financial stability, providing the company with flexibility to secure funding and invest in R&D without significant debt burden.
Innovative Product Pipeline
The focus on innovative biologic technologies positions Theriva Biologics to address unmet medical needs, potentially leading to breakthrough treatments and market leadership.
Negative Factors
Zero Revenue Generation
The lack of revenue generation highlights challenges in monetizing the product pipeline, which could hinder long-term financial sustainability and growth.
Increasing Net Losses
Rising net losses indicate operational inefficiencies and strain on financial resources, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Negative Cash Flow
Persistent negative cash flow underscores the company's reliance on external funding, raising concerns about liquidity and financial independence.

Theriva Biologics (TOVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Theriva Biologics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTheriva Biologics Inc., a clinical-stage company, develops therapeutics to treat diseases in areas of high unmet need. The company's lead product candidates include SYN-004 designed to degrade various commonly used intravenous beta-lactam antibiotics in gastrointestinal (GI) tract for the prevention of microbiome damage, clostridium difficile infection (CDI), overgrowth of pathogenic organisms, the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and acute graft-versus-host-disease (aGVHD) in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant recipients; and SYN-020, a recombinant oral formulation for the enzyme intestinal alkaline phosphatase to treat both local GI and systemic diseases. It also develops VCN-01 for the treatment of patients with pancreatic cancer, head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, and retinoblastoma. In addition, the company develops clinical stage products, such as SYN-006 to prevent aGVHD and infection by carbapenem resistant enterococci; SYN-007 for preventing antibiotic associated diarrhea with oral ß-lactam antibiotics; SYN-005 for the prevention and treatment of pertussis; and VCN-11 to treat cancer. It has collaborations with Intrexon Corporation, The University of Texas at Austin, and Cedars-Sinai Medical Center; and a clinical trial agreement with Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis to conduct a Phase 1b/2a clinical trial of SYN-004. The company was formerly known as Synthetic Biologics, Inc. and changed its name to Theriva Biologics Inc. in October 2022. Theriva Biologics Inc. is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyTheriva Biologics makes money through the development, licensing, and commercialization of its proprietary biologic products. The company's revenue streams include partnerships with pharmaceutical companies for co-development and licensing agreements, which provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of approved products. Additionally, the company may receive funding from grants and collaborations with research institutions that support its innovative therapeutic programs. These strategic partnerships and collaborations are significant contributors to the company's earnings, as they help to advance its product pipeline while sharing the risks and costs associated with drug development.

Theriva Biologics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Theriva Biologics faces significant financial challenges with zero revenue generation and increasing net losses. The balance sheet shows declining equity and assets, raising concerns about long-term viability. Negative cash flows further emphasize the need for external financing to sustain operations, highlighting potential liquidity risks.
Income Statement
Theriva Biologics has consistently reported zero revenue over the years, reflecting challenges in generating sales. The company has an increasing net loss trend, with the most recent figure of -$25.65 million, indicating deteriorating profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reinforcing operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting minimal leverage, a positive sign of financial stability. However, the declining stockholders' equity from $65.41 million in 2021 to $19.07 million in 2024 highlights significant financial strain. Total assets have decreased, further indicating a weakening financial position.
Cash Flow
Theriva Biologics exhibits a negative operating cash flow, with a deteriorating trend from -$12.89 million in 2021 to -$16.94 million in 2024. The free cash flow remains negative, indicating a persistent inability to generate cash from operations. Financing cash flows are positive, suggesting reliance on external funding.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-27.00K0.000.000.00-87.00K0.00
EBITDA-26.23M-19.29M-21.96M-19.20M-14.19M-9.96M
Net Income-26.19M-25.65M-18.35M-19.68M-14.27M-10.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets30.84M35.35M55.22M71.86M70.36M8.41M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.53M11.61M23.18M41.79M67.33M6.23M
Total Debt2.76M1.56M2.15M1.68M1.53M473.00K
Total Liabilities24.10M16.29M15.52M17.30M4.96M3.15M
Stockholders Equity6.74M19.07M39.70M54.56M65.41M8.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-18.51M-16.94M-19.20M-19.20M-12.90M-12.18M
Operating Cash Flow-18.48M-16.94M-19.00M-19.08M-12.89M-12.17M
Investing Cash Flow-35.00K-1.00K-202.00K-4.40M-14.00K-9.00K
Financing Cash Flow9.74M5.50M625.00K-1.93M74.00M3.36M

Theriva Biologics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.20
Price Trends
50DMA
0.23
Negative
100DMA
0.32
Negative
200DMA
0.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
46.42
Neutral
STOCH
38.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOVX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.21, below the 50-day MA of 0.23, and below the 200-day MA of 0.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TOVX.

Theriva Biologics Risk Analysis

Theriva Biologics disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Theriva Biologics reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Theriva Biologics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
$34.85M-1.93-114.81%37.42%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
45
Neutral
$7.78M-0.04-166.96%83.25%
45
Neutral
$4.16M-0.22-157.24%25.19%
44
Neutral
$4.58M-0.24-46.34%70.71%
42
Neutral
$3.73M-0.11-197.11%99.87%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TOVX
Theriva Biologics
0.21
-1.70
-88.95%
GLMD
Galmed Pharmaceuticals
0.83
-1.99
-70.57%
MTNB
Matinas BioPharma
0.74
0.04
6.29%
CNSP
CNS Pharmaceuticals
6.14
-58.24
-90.46%
GLTO
Galecto
23.30
18.53
388.47%

Theriva Biologics Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Theriva Biologics advances VCN-01 toward Phase 3 trial
Positive
Jan 12, 2026

Theriva Biologics has updated investors on progress preparing a Phase 3 clinical trial for its lead oncolytic virus VCN-01 in first-line metastatic pancreatic cancer, supported by encouraging Phase 2b VIRAGE data showing improved overall and progression-free survival, longer duration of response, and an acceptable safety profile when VCN-01 is added to standard gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel chemotherapy in a real-world patient population. The company is also advancing VCN-01 in retinoblastoma and other solid tumor indications, reporting multiple regulatory designations in the U.S. and EU, a projected cash runway into the first quarter of 2027, and an active search for financing or partnerships, developments that collectively underscore its bid to strengthen its position in the competitive cancer therapeutics market and to move toward pivotal-stage programs in high-mortality and rare disease settings.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Sell with a $0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Theriva Biologics Gains EMA Backing for VCN-01 Phase 3
Positive
Dec 29, 2025

On December 29, 2025, Theriva Biologics reported that it received positive Scientific Advice from the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use on the design of a pivotal Phase 3 trial of its lead oncolytic adenovirus candidate VCN-01 in combination with gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel as first-line therapy for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The agency broadly endorsed Theriva’s plan for a single, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled Phase 3 study using overall survival as the primary endpoint, key secondary endpoints such as progression-free survival and duration of response, an adaptive trial design, and a repeated “macrocycle” dosing regimen that allows more than two doses of VCN-01, reflecting survival benefits seen in the prior VIRAGE Phase 2b trial. Theriva, which held $15.5 million in cash as of November 10, 2025 and projects runway into the first quarter of 2027, plans an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the U.S. FDA in the first half of 2026 to finalize a multinational Phase 3 protocol, with regulatory clarity expected to support partnering, manufacturing scale-up, and potential expansion of VCN-01 development into retinoblastoma, thereby sharpening the company’s late-stage oncology profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder Meetings
Theriva Biologics Reschedules Special Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025

On December 15, 2025, Theriva Biologics was unable to convene its Special Meeting of Stockholders due to insufficient shares present to constitute a quorum. Consequently, the company will reschedule the meeting to seek approval for a warrant exercise proposal, as required under a warrant inducement agreement with institutional investors. This agreement mandates that Theriva Biologics continues to call stockholder meetings every 60 days until approval is obtained or the warrants are no longer outstanding.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Theriva Biologics Presents Promising Phase 2b Trial Data
Positive
Oct 20, 2025

On October 20, 2025, Theriva Biologics presented expanded data from their VIRAGE Phase 2b trial at the ESMO 2025 Annual Congress. The trial evaluates the efficacy of VCN-01 combined with standard chemotherapy in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Results indicate that VCN-01, when used with standard care, shows promising improvements in progression-free survival and overall response rates, potentially enhancing treatment outcomes for this aggressive cancer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Theriva Biologics Secures $4M Through Warrant Agreement
Positive
Oct 17, 2025

On October 16, 2025, Theriva Biologics entered into a warrant inducement agreement with existing institutional investors, resulting in the exercise of warrants to purchase up to 7,360,460 shares of common stock at a reduced price, generating approximately $4.0 million in gross proceeds. The company issued new warrants for additional shares, set to be exercisable upon stockholder approval, with the proceeds intended for working capital and corporate purposes. This transaction, advised by A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, is expected to impact Theriva’s operational liquidity and strategic positioning in the biotech industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Theriva Biologics Presents Promising Phase 2b Trial Data
Positive
Oct 14, 2025

On October 13, 2025, Theriva Biologics announced the presentation of expanded data from the VIRAGE Phase 2b trial on metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) at the ESMO 2025 Congress. The trial results indicated that patients receiving VCN-01 in combination with standard chemotherapy showed improved overall survival, progression-free survival, and duration of response compared to chemotherapy alone. The administration of VCN-01 was well tolerated, with all related serious adverse events resolved. These findings could enhance Theriva’s positioning in the oncology field by demonstrating the potential efficacy of VCN-01 in treating mPDAC.

The most recent analyst rating on (TOVX) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Theriva Biologics stock, see the TOVX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 13, 2026