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Theriva Biologics (TOVX)
:TOVX
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Theriva Biologics (TOVX) AI Stock Analysis

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TOVX

Theriva Biologics

(TOVX)

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Neutral 44 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$0.22
▼(-0.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance—very low revenue, large ongoing losses, and continued cash burn with declining equity—creating elevated funding and execution risk. Technical signals also lean bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Corporate events provide some offset through positive clinical-trial progress, but dilution/process uncertainty tempers the benefit, and valuation metrics offer limited support due to negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Progress in VIRAGE2 Phase 2a trial
Initiation and dosing in VIRAGE2 is a durable de-risking milestone: regulatory authorization and active patient dosing advance VCN-01 toward a potential pivotal path in metastatic PDAC. Successful readouts could validate the regimen, inform Phase 3 design, and materially strengthen commercial and partnership prospects.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow is a structural risk: it requires frequent external financing that can dilute shareholders and divert management focus. Over months this constrains runway, increases execution risk for trials, and makes timely financing terms a critical determinant of program continuity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Progress in VIRAGE2 Phase 2a trial
Initiation and dosing in VIRAGE2 is a durable de-risking milestone: regulatory authorization and active patient dosing advance VCN-01 toward a potential pivotal path in metastatic PDAC. Successful readouts could validate the regimen, inform Phase 3 design, and materially strengthen commercial and partnership prospects.
Read all positive factors

Theriva Biologics (TOVX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Theriva Biologics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Theriva Biologics Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology firm dedicated to developing novel treatments for conditions with significant unmet medical needs. The company's pipeline features several promising candidates, including SYN-004, which is e...
How the Company Makes Money
Theriva Biologics does not have publicly established, recurring product revenue from marketed therapies; as a clinical-stage company, its activities are primarily R&D-driven, so ongoing operations have typically been funded through external financ...

Theriva Biologics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Low TTM revenue (~$0.3M) with strong gross margin (~83%), but profitability is deeply negative (EBIT about -$21.7M; net loss about -$21.5M) and cash burn remains significant (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both around -$14.4M). Balance sheet leverage is modest (debt-to-equity ~0.13), yet equity has declined sharply (from ~$65.4M in 2021 to ~$15.4M TTM) and ROE is very negative (~-191%), indicating ongoing value erosion and funding risk.
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue300.00K0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit276.00K-108.00K0.000.000.000.00
EBITDA-11.62M-23.63M-19.29M-21.96M-19.20M-14.18M
Net Income-11.62M-25.25M-25.65M-18.35M-19.68M-14.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets34.86M38.24M35.35M55.22M71.86M70.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments11.34M13.06M11.61M23.18M41.79M67.33M
Total Debt3.55M2.63M1.56M2.15M1.68M1.53M
Total Liabilities22.67M22.86M16.29M15.52M17.30M4.96M
Stockholders Equity12.19M15.38M19.07M39.70M54.56M65.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-12.38M-16.70M-16.94M-19.20M-19.20M-12.90M
Operating Cash Flow-12.35M-16.67M-16.94M-19.00M-19.08M-12.89M
Investing Cash Flow-22.00K-35.00K-1.00K-202.00K-4.40M-14.00K
Financing Cash Flow14.46M18.19M5.50M625.00K-1.93M74.00M

Theriva Biologics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.22
Price Trends
50DMA
0.24
Negative
100DMA
0.27
Negative
200DMA
0.24
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
49.52
Neutral
STOCH
58.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TOVX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.22, below the 50-day MA of 0.24, and below the 200-day MA of 0.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TOVX.

Theriva Biologics Risk Analysis

Theriva Biologics disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Theriva Biologics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Theriva Biologics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
44
Neutral
$10.46M-0.34-178.29%94.38%
44
Neutral
$8.63M>-0.01-123.29%
44
Neutral
$10.84M-0.59-96.39%81.87%
44
Neutral
$13.98M-0.25-503.79%82.28%
42
Neutral
$7.97M-0.95-179.41%5.12%
41
Neutral
$9.82M-0.66-101.90%-90.65%26.48%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TOVX
Theriva Biologics
0.23
-0.21
-48.18%
LSTA
Lisata Therapeutics
1.09
-1.42
-56.57%
AKTX
Akari Therapeutics
7.54
-32.46
-81.15%
XCUR
Exicure
1.25
-5.30
-80.92%
INAB
IN8bio
1.10
-1.29
-53.97%
SNTI
Senti Biosciences
0.45
-1.15
-71.94%

Theriva Biologics Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Theriva Begins VIRAGE2 Trial in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Theriva Biologics announced it had dosed the first patient in its VIRAGE2 Phase 2a proof-of-concept trial, which is testing more frequent dosing of VCN-01 alongside standard gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel chemotherapy in first-line ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Theriva Biologics Expands Stock Incentive and Governance Plans
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Theriva Biologics, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders approved Amendment No. 4 to the 2020 Stock Incentive Plan, raising the pool of shares available for equity awards from 4,500,000 to 6,50...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Theriva Biologics launches VIRAGE2 metastatic pancreatic trial
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 7, 2026, Theriva Biologics announced that Spain’s medicines regulator AEMPS authorized the start of VIRAGE2, a Phase IIa, single-arm, open-label proof-of-concept trial testing more frequent dosing of VCN-01 with gemcitabine/nab-pacli...
Business Operations and Strategy
Theriva Biologics highlights promising VCN-01 Phase 1 results
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Theriva Biologics announced that results from a Phase 1 trial of its oncolytic adenovirus VCN-01 combined with the checkpoint inhibitor durvalumab in 20 heavily pretreated metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients...
Private Placements and FinancingShareholder Meetings
Theriva Biologics Faces Quorum Issue Delaying Warrant Vote
Negative
Jun 5, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Theriva Biologics, Inc. attempted to hold a Special Meeting of Stockholders but was unable to convene it due to the absence of a quorum, preventing a vote on key warrant-related proposals. The company now plans to call a new stock...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026