Tectonic Therapeutic (TECX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $393.60M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 250.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -343.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 51
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -8.20
• Shares Outstanding: 18,662,672
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 246,205
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 250,992
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5778.14
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -4.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $74.25
• Price Target Upside: 252.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Tectonic Therapeutic's stock score reflects significant financial risks due to lack of revenue and ongoing losses, offset by a strong equity position and recent positive corporate developments. The technical analysis suggests bearish market sentiment with potential for oversold conditions. The recent PIPE deal and positive trial results provide some optimism for future growth, but the company remains a high-risk investment due to its speculative nature and current financial instability.

Positive Factors

Cash Position

TECX ended 2024 with $141M in cash and cash equivalents, and its $185M private placement extends the projected cash runway into 4Q28.

Clinical Trial Results

TX45 delivered highly encouraging Ph1b Part A interim results, with full data to be presented at a medical meeting later this year.

Financial Performance

TECX recorded a 2024 net loss of $58M, which was better than the estimated loss of $63M.

Negative Factors

Clinical Trial Risks

Volenrelaxin is a different molecule with unknowns, and the trial design limits potential negative readthrough.

Market Perception

TECX is undervalued given noise around a competitor's discontinuation of their program in a different indication and some misconceptions around the relaxin mechanism.

Stock Performance

TECX is -52% YTD due to LLY discontinuing their relaxin program and the bear point that TX45 is not an anti-fibrotic.

Tectonic Therapeutic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company focuses on the discovery and development of therapeutic proteins and antibodies to modulate the activity of G-protein coupled receptors(GPCRs). It offers GEODe technology platform to enable the discovery and development of GPCR-targeted biologic medicines. The company's pipeline products include RXFP1 agonist, which is in ongoing phase 1a and 1b for the indication of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; GPCR antagonist for indication of hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia; bi-functional GPCR modulator for indication of fibrosis; and GPCR modulators. Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. is based in Watertown, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Tectonic Therapeutic makes money through the development and commercialization of its proprietary drug candidates. The company's revenue model includes income from product sales, licensing agreements, and strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. Key revenue streams involve upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties from licensing its technology or drug candidates to larger pharmaceutical firms. Additionally, Tectonic may engage in collaborative research and development partnerships to further enhance its pipeline, leveraging external expertise while sharing costs and potential profits.

Tectonic Therapeutic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tectonic Therapeutic is experiencing significant financial difficulties, characterized by zero revenue and persistent losses. The balance sheet benefits from low leverage but is offset by negative equity in some periods. The cash flow is negative, but financing activities provide temporary support. Overall, the lack of profitability and revenue growth are substantial risks.

Income Statement

Tectonic Therapeutic has consistently reported zero revenue across all periods, indicating a lack of commercialized products or services. The gross profit, EBIT, and net income are all negative, reflecting continued operational losses. No revenue growth is present as there is no revenue to measure. The lack of profitability metrics such as EBIT and net profit margins underscores the financial challenges facing the company.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity position with a high equity ratio due to minimal liabilities. However, the negative stockholders' equity in some periods raises concerns about sustained losses. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating low leverage, which is favorable. The consistent cash reserves suggest liquidity is maintained, but the lack of revenue generation remains a significant risk.

Cash Flow

Tectonic Therapeutic has negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash outflows exceed inflows from operations. The cash flow to net income ratios are irrelevant due to negative net income. The decreasing trend in cash flow growth is concerning, although the company has been able to raise financing, which provides temporary relief.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
-264.00K	-617.00K	-4.17M	-1.40M	-1.21M	-850.00K
	EBIT
-52.66M	-44.65M	-105.43M	-118.84M	-120.23M	-75.81M
	EBITDA
-48.30M	-43.17M	-101.42M	-117.50M	-118.50M	-72.11M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-49.57M	-42.82M	-105.89M	-119.13M	-119.71M	-72.97M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
141.24M	28.77M	92.85M	189.57M	259.68M	187.04M
	Total Assets
152.91M	39.40M	103.95M	203.84M	271.23M	200.51M
	Total Debt
3.30M	4.34M	16.46M	14.95M	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-137.94M	-24.43M	-76.38M	-174.62M	-259.68M	-187.04M
	Total Liabilities
12.13M	6.35M	28.58M	34.36M	16.89M	14.50M
	Stockholders Equity
140.78M	-84.64M	75.37M	169.48M	254.34M	186.01M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-44.16M	-40.96M	-97.47M	-100.49M	-99.98M	-69.25M
	Operating Cash Flow
-44.01M	-40.68M	-97.21M	-98.03M	-98.80M	-67.67M
	Investing Cash Flow
-156.00K	-279.00K	-267.00K	-2.46M	-1.18M	-1.58M
	Financing Cash Flow
-7.15M	33.75M	262.00K	30.37M	172.62M	129.99M

Tectonic Therapeutic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TECX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.70, below the 50-day MA of 22.09, and below the 200-day MA of 30.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TECX.

Tectonic Therapeutic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRDA	61 Neutral	$336.85M	4.70	19.56%	―	63.38%	―
AMLX	61 Neutral	$474.91M	―	-100.88%	―	-77.06%	-705.82%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$5.32B	3.32	-40.25%	2.90%	17.93%	2.14%
IVA	50 Neutral	$344.18M	―	344.74%	―	-47.32%	-26.67%
TECX	42 Neutral	$393.60M	―	-42.09%	―	―	-343.40%
VERV	38 Underperform	$511.46M	―	-36.36%	―	174.98%	25.06%
ZBIO	38 Underperform	$418.75M	―		―	―	―

Tectonic Therapeutic Corporate Events

Tectonic Therapeutic Secures $185 Million in PIPE Deal

On February 3, 2025, Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. announced a $185 million private placement agreement with accredited investors to fund its development pipeline, working capital, and general corporate purposes. The private investment in public equity (PIPE) involves the sale of 3,689,465 shares of common stock, with the transaction expected to close on February 5, 2025. The financing will support the clinical development of TX45 and TX2100, as well as the company’s discovery platform. The shares are sold under Regulation D’s exemption and are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933. This move is expected to enhance Tectonic’s operational capacity and industry positioning by providing necessary capital for its ongoing and future projects.

Tectonic Therapeutic Reports Positive Interim Results for TX45

On January 30, 2025, Tectonic Therapeutic announced positive interim results from its Phase 1b trial of TX45 in patients with Group 2 Pulmonary Hypertension with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction (PH-HFpEF). The results, which achieved all hemodynamic goals, bolster the potential for TX45’s continued development into Phase 2 trials, potentially addressing unmet needs in a market with significant revenue potential.