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Semler Scientific (SMLR)
:SMLR
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Semler Scientific
(NASDAQ:SMLR)
71Outperform
Positive Factors
Cash Flow
The business is generating significant positive free cash flow now, and this is expected to continue.
Regulatory Approval
Semler is seeking to obtain a new 510(k) clearance from the FDA that would allow the Company to market a heart dysfunction product.
Treasury Strategy
The Company has added Bitcoin to its Treasury strategy, and it is clear management and the Board view Bitcoin as central to the future of Semler.
Negative Factors
Bitcoin Volatility
The inherent volatility of Bitcoin is viewed as a risk for investors.
Cryptocurrency Holdings
The Company had an unrealized gain of roughly $29M from BTC in the quarter and ended Q4 with roughly $9M of cash.
Regulatory Changes
Preliminary 4Q results again reflected some of the fallout from last year’s announcement of CMS’ decision to phase out risk payments for asymptomatic PAD testing over the next 3 years.
Semler Scientific (SMLR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$311.74M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)309.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth-17.44%
EPS Growth73.71%
CountryUS
Employees79
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength66
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.91
Shares Outstanding9,596,486
10 Day Avg. Volume268,883
30 Day Avg. Volume309,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)6.69
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)12.70
P/FCF Ratio12.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.00Price Target Upside118.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Semler Scientific Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSemler Scientific, Inc. provides technology solutions to improve the clinical effectiveness and efficiency of healthcare providers in the United States. The company's products include QuantaFlo, a four-minute in-office blood flow test that enables healthcare providers to use blood flow measurements as part of their examinations of a patient's vascular condition. Its products serve cardiologists, internists, nephrologists, endocrinologists, podiatrists, and family practitioners, as well as healthcare insurance plans, integrated delivery networks, independent physician groups, and companies contracting with the healthcare industry, such as risk assessment groups. The company offers its products through salespersons and distributors. Semler Scientific, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
How the Company Makes MoneySemler Scientific generates revenue primarily through the sales and leasing of its QuantaFlo product to healthcare providers and organizations. The company employs a recurring revenue model, where customers pay for the use of the QuantaFlo system either on a per-test basis or through leasing agreements. This approach ensures a steady stream of income from existing customers as the demand for cardiovascular diagnostic testing grows. Additionally, Semler Scientific may engage in strategic partnerships or collaborations with healthcare organizations to expand the reach and utilization of its diagnostic tools, contributing further to its revenue.
Semler Scientific Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Semler Scientific demonstrates strong financial health characterized by robust profitability, a solid balance sheet with no debt, and positive cash flow dynamics. Despite the recent drop in revenue, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on future growth opportunities, given its strong equity base and efficient cash management.Income Statement
Semler Scientific has shown impressive growth in its net income and consistent revenue generation over the years. The gross profit margin is robust, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, there is a notable decline in revenue from 2023 to 2024, which could indicate potential market challenges or strategic shifts.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is strong with zero debt, leading to an excellent debt-to-equity ratio. The equity ratio is high, showcasing financial stability and minimal liabilities. This positions SMLR favorably in terms of financial leverage and risk management.90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Semler Scientific has maintained positive free cash flow with significant growth in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash conversion. However, there are substantial investing cash outflows, which may suggest capital-intensive investments or strategic expansions.75
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 56.29M | 68.18M | 56.69M | 53.03M | 38.60M | Gross Profit |
| 51.53M | 61.20M | 52.43M | 46.91M | 35.25M | EBIT |
| 20.93M | 22.26M | 17.20M | 19.45M | 15.96M | EBITDA |
| 20.93M | 23.28M | 17.79M | 19.45M | 15.96M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 40.90M | 20.58M | 14.32M | 17.22M | 14.01M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 14.92M | 57.20M | 43.09M | 37.32M | 22.08M | Total Assets |
| 239.83M | 78.06M | 62.69M | 50.67M | 34.64M | Total Debt |
| 70.00K | 160.00K | 245.00K | 325.00K | 332.00K | Net Debt |
| -8.75M | -57.04M | -22.77M | -37.00M | -21.75M | Total Liabilities |
| 9.08M | 6.27M | 7.02M | 5.13M | 4.85M | Stockholders Equity |
| 230.75M | 71.80M | 55.68M | 45.55M | 29.79M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 24.36M | 20.50M | 15.30M | 15.23M | 14.36M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 24.41M | 21.33M | 17.46M | 16.06M | 15.42M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -189.98M | 18.40M | -26.84M | -825.00K | -1.31M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 117.19M | -5.41M | -4.94M | 13.00K | 230.00K |
Semler Scientific Technical Analysis
Negative
32.48
Price Trends
39.61
Negative
49.62
Negative
39.99
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.03
Negative
41.24
Neutral
36.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMLR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.77, below the 50-day MA of 39.61, and below the 200-day MA of 39.99, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMLR.
Semler Scientific Risk Analysis
Semler Scientific disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Semler Scientific reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Semler Scientific Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $311.74M | 6.61 | 27.04% | ― | -17.44% | 73.71% | |
67 Neutral | $315.47M | 19.19 | 8.27% | ― | 6.76% | -41.38% | |
57 Neutral | $342.47M | ― | -81.24% | ― | 31.04% | 22.18% | |
51 Neutral | $5.19B | 3.13 | -40.94% | 2.95% | 17.94% | 2.00% | |
48 Neutral | $301.58M | ― | -8.57% | ― | -6.49% | -205.13% | |
46 Neutral | $394.14M | ― | -12.32% | ― | -9.23% | -359.07% | |
43 Neutral | $392.46M | ― | -166.29% | ― | 0.37% | -20.49% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SMLR
Semler Scientific
32.48
6.22
23.69%
SRDX
SurModics
27.57
2.18
8.59%
CLPT
ClearPoint Neuro
12.24
6.73
122.14%
SENS
Senseonics Holdings
0.60
0.20
50.00%
TCMD
Tactile Systems Technology
13.33
-1.32
-9.01%
VREX
Varex Imaging
7.32
-9.74
-57.09%
Semler Scientific Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 18, 2025 | % Change Since: -35.96% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, particularly in the successful adoption and execution of a Bitcoin treasury strategy, which has positively impacted market capitalization and resulted in substantial accretive purchases. However, challenges remain with declining revenues and a heavy dependence on a few major customers, indicating areas of concern.Highlights
Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Success
Semler Scientific became the second U.S. public company to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, acquiring 3,192 bitcoins valued at over $300 million. The company saw a positive bitcoin yield of 152% since adopting the strategy and is now the tenth largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Market capitalization has grown by more than 200% since adopting Bitcoin.
Convertible Notes Offering
The company successfully completed a convertible notes offering of $100 million, upsized from the originally expected $75 million due to high demand. The offering was oversubscribed, and the notes have a conversion premium of 75%.
Record Cash Generation
In 2024, Semler Scientific achieved record cash generation of over $24 million from its health care operations.
New Product Development
The company is pursuing a new 510(k) clearance for a product extension of its QuantaFlo technology and is exploring opportunities in the cardiovascular space.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline
Total revenues in Q4 2024 were $12.4 million, down 18% compared to Q4 2023. Further revenue pressure is expected in 2025 following the CMS rate announcement.
Dependence on Key Customers
In Q4 2024, two largest customers, including their affiliates, comprised 39% and 31% of quarterly revenues, indicating dependence on a few key clients.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results call, Semler Scientific provided guidance highlighting its strategic focus on expanding its Bitcoin treasury strategy and health care operations. The company reported owning 3,192 bitcoins valued at over $300 million, achieving a 152% yield since its Bitcoin adoption in May 2024. Semler's market capitalization grew by over 200% following this strategy, leveraging $280 million from operating cash flow and financing activities, including a $100 million convertible senior notes offering. On the health care front, Semler generated record cash of over $24 million in 2024 and is pursuing a new 510(k) clearance for its QuantaFlo technology, alongside exploring new cardiovascular market opportunities. Despite an 18% revenue decline in Q4 2024, Semler is committed to sustaining and expanding its core medical products and services business while navigating potential revenue pressures in 2025.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.