SmartFinancial (SMBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $636.18M
• Dividend Yield: 0.84%
• Average Volume (3M): 61.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 13.41%
• EPS Growth: 41.78%
• Country: US
• Employees: 597
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.81
• Shares Outstanding: 17,096,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 76,213
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 61,232
• PEG Ratio: 0.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.56
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.10
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 20.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $223.99M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(12.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is driven by solid fundamentals and a constructive earnings outlook (expected margin expansion, strong loan/deposit growth, and disciplined funding actions), supported by reasonable valuation. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum (bearish indicators and trading below key moving averages) and some balance-sheet/cash-flow watch items (2025 debt step-up and prior free-cash-flow variability).

Positive Factors

Loan & Deposit Growth

Sustained double-digit organic loan growth and strong core deposit gains reflect durable franchise expansion and funding stability. Over several periods this supports asset yield scale, reduces reliance on wholesale funding, and underpins long-term net interest income and lending capacity.

NIM and Funding Cost Improvement

Improving net interest margin driven by lower deposit and funding costs is structural for bank profitability; sustained margin expansion increases PPNR, funds provision buffers, and supports reinvestment. Management guidance targets further NIM gains through disciplined funding mix.

Capital & Liquidity Strength

Above-minimum capital ratios, improving tangible equity and conservative loan-to-deposit positioning provide a durable buffer against credit losses and growth funding needs. Strong capitalization supports shareholder returns and strategic flexibility over multi-quarter horizons.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression vs Peak Years

Net margins remain materially below prior peak years, indicating a structurally less favorable rate/expense backdrop. Persistently lower margins compress earned spread, limiting profit sensitivity to loan growth and requiring sustained expense discipline to preserve return on equity.

2025 Debt Step-Up

A notable increase in debt reverses prior deleveraging and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. Higher scheduled debt raises funding costs risk and reduces balance-sheet flexibility, making capital deployment and dividend/repurchase choices more sensitive to market conditions.

Free Cash Flow Volatility

While 2025 FCF recovered, historical volatility and relatively low coverage reduce the cushion for cyclical stress or opportunistic investment. Variable cash conversion constrains predictable capital return capacity and increases dependence on stable earnings and deposit funding.

SmartFinancial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SmartFinancial, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for SmartBank that provides various financial services to individuals and corporate customers. It operates through Commercial Real Estate, Consumer Real Estate, Construction and Land Development, Commercial and Industrial, and Consumer and Other segments. The company offers noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing checking, interest-bearing demand, savings, money market, time deposit, individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial and residential real estate, consumer real estate, and construction and land development loans; commercial and financial loans; mortgage loans; and direct consumer installment loans, educational, and other revolving credit loans; and overdraft facilities. In addition, the company offers wealth management, insurance, mortgage origination, and Internet and mobile banking services. As of March 1, 2022, it had 41 full-service branches and 2 loan production offices in East and Middle Tennessee, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The company is headquartered in Knoxville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

SmartFinancial primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated from the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets—mainly loans (commercial, commercial real estate, residential, and consumer) and, to a lesser extent, investment securities and other interest-earning balances—and interest paid on funding sources such as customer deposits (including interest-bearing transaction accounts, savings, money market accounts, and time deposits) and any borrowings. The size and mix of the loan portfolio, loan yields, deposit costs, credit performance, and prevailing interest-rate conditions materially influence this spread. Noninterest income is earned from banking-related fees and service charges, which typically include deposit account service charges, interchange or card-related fees, treasury/cash management fees, and other customer service fees associated with providing banking services. The company also incurs noninterest expense (e.g., salaries, occupancy, technology, and regulatory/compliance costs), and its profitability depends on managing credit losses (provision for credit losses) and operating efficiency. Information on any significant revenue-sharing partnerships or material non-banking business lines is null.

SmartFinancial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and improving earnings into 2025, with solid profitability and improving ROE. Offsetting factors include margin compression versus 2021–2022, a notable 2025 debt increase, and some historical variability in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over the period (from $133.0M in 2020 to $316.4M in 2025), and profitability is solid with 2025 net margin at ~15.9% and EBIT margin at ~19.4%. Earnings also improved (net income up to $50.3M in 2025 from $36.1M in 2024). The main weakness is margin compression versus 2021–2022, when net margins were >23% and operating profitability was notably higher, suggesting a less favorable rate/expense environment than the peak years.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks conservative for the period, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.18 in 2025 (well below 2020–2021 levels around ~0.33), and equity building to $552.4M alongside asset growth to $5.74B. Returns are healthy for a regional bank (ROE ~9.1% in 2025, up from ~7.4% in 2024). A watch item is the step-up in total debt in 2025 ($102.1M vs. $47.8M in 2024), which modestly reverses the prior deleveraging trend.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is steady and improving: operating cash flow rose to $61.7M in 2025 from $52.7M in 2024, and free cash flow rebounded strongly (2025 free cash flow equals operating cash flow at $61.7M). Cash conversion is strong, with free cash flow matching net income in 2025 (1.0x) and remaining solid in most prior years. The key weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (notably a decline in 2023) and overall cash flow coverage remaining low and relatively flat across the period, limiting the cushion if conditions tighten.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	316.37M	285.27M	240.37M	186.55M	149.18M
Gross Profit	192.88M	166.35M	149.38M	161.20M	135.71M
EBITDA	69.93M	56.87M	49.72M	67.55M	53.32M
Net Income	50.35M	36.14M	28.59M	43.02M	34.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.74B	5.28B	4.83B	4.64B	4.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.04B	684.73M	703.23M	735.01M	1.49B
Total Debt	102.09M	47.78M	55.20M	83.92M	141.73M
Total Liabilities	5.19B	4.78B	4.37B	4.21B	4.18B
Stockholders Equity	552.38M	491.35M	459.89M	432.45M	429.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	61.72M	46.30M	33.45M	44.31M	43.80M
Operating Cash Flow	61.72M	52.70M	39.72M	56.79M	46.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-499.05M	-420.22M	-135.24M	-840.82M	-264.99M
Financing Cash Flow	514.17M	402.82M	181.37M	5.37M	782.17M

SmartFinancial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 37.21
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 37.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.14, below the 50-day MA of 39.82, and above the 200-day MA of 36.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMBK.

SmartFinancial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMBC	79 Outperform	$685.05M	9.08	11.54%	1.59%	9.34%	25.21%
SPFI	75 Outperform	$668.94M	10.33	12.51%	1.57%	5.87%	37.99%
HTBK	71 Outperform	$742.20M	15.39	6.83%	4.16%	8.23%	-0.07%
SMBK	70 Outperform	$636.18M	12.33	9.01%	0.84%	13.41%	41.78%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
SUPV	42 Neutral	$789.73M	-26.53	-5.10%	1.54%	-50.96%	-89.23%

SmartFinancial Corporate Events

SmartFinancial Announces Dividend and New Share Repurchase

On January 29, 2026, SmartFinancial’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share on its common stock, payable on March 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026, underscoring an ongoing capital return to investors. The board also authorized a new share repurchase program of up to $10 million in common stock, effective March 1, 2026, through February 28, 2027, replacing the prior plan and allowing flexible repurchases in various transaction formats, a move that signals confidence in the company’s valuation and provides additional capital management tools that may support earnings per share and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMBK) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SmartFinancial stock, see the SMBK Stock Forecast page.

SmartFinancial Posts Strong Q4 2025 Earnings and Growth

On January 20, 2026, SmartFinancial reported strong results for the fourth quarter of 2025, posting net income and operating earnings of $13.7 million, or $0.81 per diluted share, up from $9.6 million, or $0.57 per share, a year earlier, and flat with the prior quarter on a net income basis. The quarter featured robust net organic loan and lease growth of $141 million, 8% annualized deposit growth, a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase in tangible book value per share, and a tax-equivalent net interest margin expansion to 3.38% driven by lower deposit and funding costs, alongside the company’s seventh consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage. For full-year 2025, management highlighted approximately 12% organic loan growth, 14% organic deposit growth excluding brokered deposits, and a 17% rise in tangible book value per share, underscoring improved profitability and operational efficiency, further supported by the completion of a multi-year core contract renegotiation and stable credit quality with nonperforming assets at 0.22% of total assets and an allowance for credit losses of 0.94% of loans and leases.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMBK) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SmartFinancial stock, see the SMBK Stock Forecast page.

SmartFinancial Extends Exchange Offer for Subordinated Notes

On January 5, 2026, SmartFinancial, Inc. announced that it had extended its registered exchange offer for up to $100 million of its 7.25% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2035, allowing holders of unregistered notes issued in a private placement on August 20, 2025 to exchange them for an equal principal amount of registered notes. The offer, originally set to expire on January 2, 2026, was extended to January 9, 2026, with all other terms unchanged; as of January 2, 2026, $82.5 million, or 82.5%, of the outstanding notes had already been tendered, indicating strong investor participation and furthering the company’s efforts to enhance liquidity and tradability of its subordinated debt within the capital markets framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMBK) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SmartFinancial stock, see the SMBK Stock Forecast page.