Sound Financial Bancorp (SFBC) Risk Analysis

A portion of our assets are carried on the balance sheet at fair value, including investment securities available for sale and mortgage servicing rights related to single-family loans. Generally, for assets that are reported at fair value, we use quoted market prices or valuation models that use observable market data inputs to estimate their fair value. In certain cases, observable market prices and data may not be readily available, or their availability may be diminished due to market conditions. We use financial models to value certain of these assets. These models are complex and use asset-specific collateral data and market inputs for interest rates. Although we have processes and procedures in place governing valuation models and their review, such assumptions are complex, as we must make judgments about the effect of matters that are inherently uncertain. Different assumptions could result in significant changes in valuation, which in turn could affect earnings or result in significant changes in the dollar amount of assets reported on the balance sheet.

Our origination of commercial and multifamily real estate, construction and land, consumer and commercial business loans, typically present different risks to us than our one-to-four family residential loans for a number of reasons, including as follows: - Construction and Land Loans. Construction lending carries inherent uncertainties in estimating a property's future value upon project completion and the overall cost, encompassing interest, for project fulfillment. These uncertainties arise from challenges in estimating construction costs, assessing the market value upon project completion, and considering the impact of governmental regulations on real property. Consequently, accurately evaluating the total funds required to complete a project and determining the loan-to-value ratio for the completed project is often challenging. We may encounter scenarios where advancing funds beyond the committed amount becomes necessary to ensure project completion due to inaccurate estimations of construction costs, potentially resulting in inadequate security for loan repayment upon project completion and subsequent losses. Challenges such as disputes between borrowers and builders, builder failures to pay subcontractors, and the concentration of higher loan amounts among a limited number of builders further increase risk exposure. A downturn in the housing or real estate market could escalate delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures, substantially impairing collateral values and complicating the process of selling foreclosed properties. Multiple loans with a single builder amplify our risk exposure, wherein adverse developments in one loan or credit relationship pose significant loss potential. Some construction loans involve interest accumulation without borrower payments, impacting construction loan dynamics if market interest rates rise, leading to increased borrowing costs for end purchasers and potentially reducing homebuyer financing capabilities or overall project demand. Properties under construction are challenging to sell and often necessitate completion before successful sale, further complicating the management of problematic construction loans. This could require additional fund allocation or engagement with alternate builders, adding market risks in selling projects at future market prices that may not cover outstanding loan funds, construction, and liquidation costs. Our construction loans include those with finalized sales contracts or permanent loans for finished homes and speculative construction loans where purchasers may not be identified during or post-construction. Speculative construction loans to builders pose higher potential risks than loans for personal residences. We aim to mitigate these risks by actively monitoring unsold homes in our portfolio, local housing markets, and balancing home sales with new loan originations. We consider various factors, including builder financial capacity, market demand, and inventory ratios, while working with numerous small and mid-sized builders across geographic regions within our service area to diversify speculative construction lending risks. Land loans for future development entail additional risks due to the lack of income generation from the property and potential illiquidity of collateral and are significantly affected by supply and demand dynamics. Hence, such lending involves disbursing substantial funds, with repayment dependent on project success and the borrower's ability to sell or lease the property or obtain permanent financing, rather than independent repayment capability. - Commercial and Multifamily Real Estate Loans. Our commercial and multifamily real estate loans generally involve higher principal amounts compared to other loan types, and some commercial borrowers maintain multiple loans with us. Consequently, an adverse development in any single loan or credit relationship can significantly heighten our exposure to potential losses, far more than the impact of a similar development in a one-to-four family residential mortgage loan. The repayment of these loans relies on income generated from the property securing the loan. This income must sufficiently cover operational expenses and debt service. Economic fluctuations or shifts in local market conditions may adversely affect the property's income, posing potential repayment challenges. Moreover, a substantial portion of our commercial and multifamily real estate loans do not fully amortize and include substantial balloon payments upon maturity. These balloon payments may require the borrower to either sell or refinance the property, potentially heightening the risk of default or non-payment. In the event of a foreclosure on a commercial or multifamily real estate loan, our holding period for the collateral tends to be more extended compared to one-to-four family residential loans. This elongated holding period results from a limited pool of potential purchasers for the collateral. Recent years have witnessed substantial growth in commercial real estate markets, compounded by intensified competitive pressures that have led to historically low capitalization rates and surging property valuations. The economic disruption spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic has particularly affected commercial real estate markets. Additionally, the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of remote work options, potentially influencing the long-term performance of certain office properties within our commercial real estate portfolio. Moreover, the federal banking regulatory agencies have raised concerns about vulnerabilities within the current commercial real estate market, recognizing the risks associated with these assets. Failures in our risk management policies, procedures, and controls could impede our ability to effectively manage this portfolio, potentially leading to increased delinquencies and higher losses, thereby materially impacting our business, financial condition, and operational performance. - Commercial Business Loans.  Our commercial business loans are primarily made based on the cash flow of the borrower and secondarily on the underlying collateral provided by the borrower. A borrower's cash flow may prove to be unpredictable, and collateral securing these loans may fluctuate in value. Most often, this collateral includes accounts receivable, inventory, equipment or real estate. In the case of loans secured by accounts receivable, the availability of funds for the repayment of these loans may be substantially dependent on the ability of the borrower to collect amounts due from its customers. Other collateral securing commercial business loans may depreciate over time, may be difficult to appraise, may be illiquid and may fluctuate in value based on the success of the business. - Consumer Loans.  Generally, we consider consumer loans to involve a different degree of risk compared to first mortgage loans on one-to-four family residential properties. As a result of our large portfolio of consumer loans, we may need to increase the level of our allowance for credit losses on loans, which could decrease our profits. Consumer loans, particularly those secured by assets that depreciate rapidly like manufactured homes, automobiles, and recreational vehicles, generally carry a higher risk. Upon default, repossessed collateral from these loans might not adequately cover the outstanding loan balance. In particular, manufactured home loans pose higher risks due to the cost and difficulty of relocating the manufactured home when repossessed and the limited market for resale, especially with the diminishing number of manufactured home parks in the Puget Sound area. A significant portion of our manufactured home loan borrowers are first-time home buyers, typically exhibiting higher credit risk due to limited financial resources. Consequently, these loans tend to experience increased default probabilities, higher delinquency rates and greater servicing costs compared to other consumer loans. Floating home, houseboat, and house barge loans are typically located on cooperative or condominium moorages. The primary risk of these loans stems from the distinctive nature of the collateral and the complexities involved in relocating such property to permissible locations. The process for securing deeds or rights within condominium or cooperative docks in this lending area differs significantly from our other loan types, potentially resulting in higher costs associated with collateral recovery compared to one-to-four family mortgage loans and other consumer loans.