AAK AB (AAK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr64.23B
• Dividend Yield: 1.92%
• Average Volume (3M): 462.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: 4.79%
• EPS Growth: -1.93%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 4,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 3.63
• Shares Outstanding: 259,629,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 462,417
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 462,663
• PEG Ratio: -5.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.49
• P/FCF Ratio: -155.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr288.50
• Price Target Upside: 10.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 14.85
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr47.00B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: kr269.00 ▲(3.14% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by solid profitability and a healthy balance sheet, offset by materially weaker and volatile cash generation in 2025 and a lack of revenue growth. Technicals are neutral-to-slightly weak (below key longer-term averages with negative MACD), while valuation is reasonable with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Custom solutions & long-term partnerships

AAK's business model centers on customized vegetable-oil solutions and long-term customer partnerships across food and cosmetics. This creates durable demand, high switching costs and co-development ties that support repeat sales, stable order visibility and stronger customer retention over time.

Solid and improving profitability

Operating profitability above 10% and improving net margins since 2022 indicate structural margin strength. Consistent operating margins support internal reinvestment and shareholder returns, and suggest the company has pricing power or cost control advantages versus peers over the medium term.

Healthy balance sheet and strong ROE

Low leverage and mid-to-high teens ROE provide financial flexibility to fund capital spending, dividends or targeted M&A without stretching credit metrics. A healthy balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic options through industry cycles.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash generation; negative FCF in 2025

A sharp reversal to negative free cash flow in 2025 undermines confidence in the company's ability to consistently convert profits into cash. Persistent volatility threatens funding for capex, dividends and working-capital needs, and could require external financing or asset actions.

Weak revenue momentum 2023–2025

Stagnant-to-slightly-declining sales over multiple years constrains earnings leverage and limits scale economies. Without renewed top-line growth, the company must rely on margin expansion or share gains, making long-term revenue diversification and investment outcomes more critical.

2025 gross margin weakness signals mix/cost pressure

An unusually low gross margin in 2025 suggests product-mix shifts or inability to fully pass through input-cost inflation. If structural, this pressure can erode the recent margin gains and force either price increases that hurt volume or margin compression that weighs on profitability sustainability.

AAK AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AAK AB (AAK) is a leading provider of value-adding vegetable oils and fats, serving various sectors including food, confectionery, and cosmetics. The company specializes in producing high-quality, customized solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of its customers. AAK operates globally, leveraging its extensive expertise in processing and refining oils to deliver products such as cocoa butter equivalents, bakery fats, and specialty oils that enhance the functionality and quality of food and non-food applications.

How the Company Makes Money

AAK generates revenue primarily through the sale of its specialized vegetable oils and fats across several market segments. The company's revenue model is built on long-term partnerships with customers, focusing on customized solutions that meet their specific requirements. Key revenue streams include the food segment, which encompasses bakery, dairy, and confectionery applications, and the technical segment, which includes products for personal care and industrial use. AAK also invests in research and development to innovate new products and improve existing ones, thereby enhancing customer loyalty and driving sales. Significant partnerships with global brands in food and cosmetics further bolster AAK's earnings, as they provide stable demand and opportunities for co-developing new products.

AAK AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and leverage are solid (improving net margins since 2022, operating profitability >10% recently; moderate debt and mid-to-high teens ROE). The main drag is cash-flow reliability: 2025 shows sharply weaker operating cash flow and a swing back to negative free cash flow, alongside slightly declining revenue in 2023–2025.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid and fairly consistent for a packaged foods company: net margins have generally improved since 2022 and sit around the mid-to-high single digits in 2024–2025, with operating profitability also holding above 10% in the last two years. That said, revenue momentum is a clear weak spot—sales have been slightly down in 2023–2025 (including a ~0.5% decline in 2025), limiting top-line-driven earnings growth. The unusually low 2025 gross margin versus prior years also flags potential mix/price-cost pressure or one-off effects that warrant monitoring.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks healthy with moderate leverage: debt relative to equity is low-to-moderate in 2023–2025 (roughly 0.18–0.27), improved versus the higher leverage profile seen in 2020–2022. Shareholder returns are strong and stable, with return on equity consistently in the mid-to-high teens in 2023–2025. The main watch item is the increase in total debt in 2025 versus 2024, though leverage remains manageable given the equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the biggest concern due to volatility and recent deterioration. After strong cash flow in 2023 and positive free cash flow in 2024, 2025 shows a sharp drop in operating cash flow and a swing back to negative free cash flow, with free cash flow also negative relative to net income—suggesting weaker cash conversion and/or heavier investment or working-capital drag. While the company has demonstrated it can produce strong cash in good years, the recent reversal reduces confidence in near-term cash consistency.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	46.02B	45.05B	46.03B	50.42B	35.45B
Gross Profit	4.41B	13.00B	11.73B	9.76B	7.75B
EBITDA	5.64B	5.76B	4.99B	3.36B	3.05B
Net Income	3.43B	3.54B	2.95B	1.77B	1.44B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	32.62B	34.39B	30.55B	33.99B	27.17B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.57B	1.91B	1.50B	1.51B	1.00B
Total Debt	5.30B	3.57B	4.49B	7.25B	4.57B
Total Liabilities	12.65B	14.24B	13.38B	18.91B	15.34B
Stockholders Equity	19.90B	20.09B	17.12B	15.04B	11.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-441.00M	1.11B	4.07B	-1.30B	-111.00M
Operating Cash Flow	862.00M	2.35B	5.31B	-73.00M	508.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.29B	-598.00M	-1.20B	-1.23B	-650.00M
Financing Cash Flow	244.00M	-1.33B	-4.06B	1.79B	-65.00M

AAK AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 260.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AAK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 260.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 250.05, above the 50-day MA of 253.42, and above the 200-day MA of 257.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:AAK.

AAK AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ZZ.B	72 Outperform	kr5.92B	17.05	51.65%	2.54%	48.79%	38.02%
CLA.B	70 Outperform	kr15.12B	18.86	12.72%	2.74%	0.81%	57.02%
AXFO	65 Neutral	kr71.09B	30.36	31.10%	3.05%	6.28%	-10.08%
AMBEA	63 Neutral	kr10.31B	16.36	13.39%	1.56%	10.83%	16.24%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
AAK	62 Neutral	kr64.23B	18.79	18.20%	1.92%	4.79%	-1.93%
SCST	55 Neutral	kr8.48B	23.13	―	2.56%	7.37%	2.90%

AAK AB Corporate Events

AAK Delivers Resilient 2025 Profits Amid Volume Decline and Launches Aggressive Capital Return Program

AAK reported softer full-year 2025 volumes but resilient profitability, as volumes excluding the divested North American foodservice site in Hillside fell 3 percent to 2.01 million tonnes, while operating profit excluding items affecting comparability and the divestment rose 2 percent despite significant negative currency effects. For the fourth quarter, operating profit was flat year-on-year on a comparable basis and earnings per share edged up, with return on capital employed remaining robust above 20 percent, although cash flow from operating activities declined sharply for the full year. The company booked a SEK 250 million restructuring charge under its Fit-to-Win program, which weighed on reported results but is intended to sharpen efficiency, and the board signaled confidence in AAK’s financial strength with a proposed ordinary dividend increase, an extraordinary dividend, and a three-year SEK 3 billion share buyback plan, underscoring an accelerated capital return to shareholders despite lower volumes and currency headwinds.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AAK) stock is a Sell with a SEK255.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AAK AB stock, see the SE:AAK Stock Forecast page.

AAK Increases Share Capital After Employee Warrant Conversions

AAK AB has increased its total number of shares and votes during December 2025 by 375,000 following employee participation in its long-term incentive program, Warrants Program series 2022/2027, which allowed conversion of subscription warrants into new shares. After this issuance, the company now has 260,451,002 shares and votes outstanding, modestly diluting existing holdings but underscoring the ongoing use of equity-based incentives to align employees’ interests with long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AAK) stock is a Sell with a SEK255.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AAK AB stock, see the SE:AAK Stock Forecast page.

AAK Sets February 5 Investor Call for Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results

AAK AB has scheduled a conference call and webcast for investors and analysts on February 5, 2026, to present its interim report for the fourth quarter and its full year-end report for 2025. The event, led by President and CEO Johan Westman and CFO Tomas Bergendahl, will follow the publication of the report earlier that morning, with presentation materials and a replay to be made available on the company’s investor website, underscoring AAK’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparent communication with the financial markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AAK) stock is a Sell with a SEK255.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AAK AB stock, see the SE:AAK Stock Forecast page.

AAK AB Expands Shares and Votes Through Employee Incentive Program

AAK AB announced an increase in its total number of shares and votes by 446,800 as a result of its long-term incentive program for employees, known as the Warrants Program series 2022/2027. This change, which took place in November 2025, brings the total number of shares and votes to 260,076,002. The program reflects AAK’s commitment to employee engagement and could potentially enhance its market position by aligning employee interests with company growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AAK) stock is a Hold with a SEK289.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AAK AB stock, see the SE:AAK Stock Forecast page.

AAK CEO Increases Shareholding, Signaling Confidence in Future

AAK AB’s President and CEO, Johan Westman, has increased his stake in the company by acquiring an additional 9,392 shares, bringing his total holdings to 73,000 shares. This acquisition is part of the company’s incentive program, which allows for the exercise of warrants, and has been duly reported to the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. This move could signal confidence in the company’s future prospects and may positively influence stakeholder perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AAK) stock is a Sell with a SEK255.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AAK AB stock, see the SE:AAK Stock Forecast page.