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Societe Generale (SCGLY)
OTHER OTC:SCGLY
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Societe Generale
(OTC:SCGLY)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
â–²(5.15% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality signals (higher leverage and negative operating/free cash flow despite reported profits) and a soft near-term technical setup. Offsetting factors include supportive valuation (low P/E and high yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with clear profitability, cost, and capital-return targets.
Positive Factors
Strong capital and liquidity buffers
A CET1 of 13.5% alongside EUR 318bn liquidity and LCR/NSFR well above regulatory minima materially reduces solvency and funding risk. These structural buffers support lending, market-making and dividend/buyback capacity through economic cycles and regulatory stress scenarios.
Improved profitability and cost discipline
Sustained margin recovery and active cost control (cost reductions and improving cost-to-income) indicate structurally higher operating leverage. If management sustains these efficiency programs, the bank can generate more durable earnings and higher return on equity across medium-term cycles.
Broad business contributions and strategic integrations
Diverse revenue streams across retail, international, GBIS and fintech integrations reduce concentration risk and support cross-sell. BoursoBank client growth and Ayvens synergies show scalable, structural expansion of fee and lending franchises beyond core domestic retail.
Negative Factors
Material rise in leverage
A sharp step-up in leverage increases sensitivity to market funding stress, regulatory capital volatility and interest-rate moves. Higher leverage can constrain strategic optionality, raise funding costs, and amplify earnings volatility if asset quality or market conditions deteriorate.
Negative operating and free cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow despite reported profits undermines internal funding for growth, dividends and buybacks. Weak cash conversion raises dependence on wholesale funding or asset disposals, reducing resilience and increasing refinancing and liquidity risk over the medium term.
Volatile revenue path and inconsistent operating profitability
Material revenue swings and inconsistent operating margins weaken earnings predictability and planning. Structural reliance on cyclical GBIS and market revenues means medium-term earnings can be lumpy, complicating capital planning and making targets dependent on favorable market and execution conditions.
Societe Generale (SCGLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$45.62B
Dividend Yield0.6%
Average Volume (3M)341.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.3
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth-13.59%
EPS Growth182.59%
CountryUS
Employees111,754
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding3,758,619,900
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume341,367
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio-1.79
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.60
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.94B
Societe Generale Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSociété Générale Société anonyme provides financial services to individual, business, and institutional investors in Europe and internationally. It offers retail banking services under the Societe Generale, Credit du Nord, and Boursorama brand names; and insurance, investor, and other financial services. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Paris, France.
How the Company Makes MoneySociété Générale generates revenue primarily through a mix of net interest income, fees and commissions, trading and investment income, and insurance/asset-management related income. Net interest income is earned on the spread between interest collected on assets (such as consumer loans, mortgages, corporate loans, and other financing) and interest paid on funding sources (such as customer deposits and wholesale funding). Fees and commissions come from services such as account and payment services, card-related fees, cash management and transaction banking, loan origination/structuring fees, advisory services, custody and securities services, and wealth/asset management management fees. In its global banking and investor solutions activities, the bank may also earn market-related revenues from client-driven trading, market-making, and hedging activities across asset classes, as well as financing revenues (e.g., structured or asset-based financing), subject to market conditions. The group can also earn premiums and related income through insurance activities (where applicable within the group) and performance/management fees through asset management and private banking. Profitability is influenced by factors such as interest-rate levels and yield-curve shape, credit quality and loan-loss provisions, client activity in capital markets, regulatory capital and liquidity requirements, and overall macroeconomic conditions in its key geographies.
Societe Generale Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive: management reported record 2025 revenues (EUR 27.3bn), record profit (EUR ~6bn), meaningful improvements in efficiency and capital (CET1 13.5%), and strong business-level performances across retail, GBIS, and International pillars. Management upgraded 2026 profitability targets and reaffirmed disciplined capital returns while maintaining liquidity and asset-quality metrics within guidance. Notable challenges include Q4 Global Markets softness (product and geographic mix effects), normalization impacts at Ayvens (lower UCS/unit results), sizable Stage 3 provisions in Q4, and a paused extraordinary buyback due to authorization limits. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, with the company signaling continued transformation, ambitious but achievable cost and profitability targets, and a clear capital-return framework.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenues and Strong Profitability
Group revenues reached EUR 27.3 billion in 2025 (record), with revenues up almost 7% excluding asset disposals; group net income reached ~EUR 6.0 billion; ROTE was 10.2% for the year (9.6% excl. capital gains), above the 2025 target of ~9%.
Quarterly Momentum — Q4 Net Income and Revenue Growth
Q4 2025 net income was EUR 1.4 billion, up 36% versus Q4 2024; Q4 revenues grew 6.8% versus Q4 2024 excluding disposals; Q4 cost-to-income improved to 64.6% from 69.4% in Q4 2024.
Cost Discipline and Operating Efficiency
Group operating costs decreased by 2% in 2025 (excl. disposals), ahead of the target (≥1%); management targets ~3% net cost decrease in 2026 (reported); cost-to-income improved to 63.6% in 2025 (better than the <65% 2025 target) and management aims for <60% in 2026.
Capital Strength and Shareholder Returns
CET1 ratio stood at 13.5% after Basel IV impact and extra distributions; retained earnings and actions strengthened capital by ~20 bps; Board proposed ordinary distribution of EUR 2.7 billion (up 54% vs 2024) and total distribution for 2025 of EUR 4.679 billion (up 169% vs 2024); dividend per share EUR 1.61 (up 48%) and ordinary share buyback EUR 1.462 billion (up 68%).
Strong Liquidity and Capital Ratios
Liquidity reserves at EUR 318 billion; LCR 144% and NSFR 116%, both comfortably above regulatory requirements; loan-to-deposit ratio 77%.
Broad-Based Business Contributions
All major businesses contributed: GBIS record revenues EUR 10.4 billion (up 2.6%); Global Markets revenues EUR 5.98 billion for 2025 (a 16-year high, +2.7% vs 2024); BIS RONE 16.7% (Basel IV); Financing & Advisory and other GBIS franchises delivered strong performance.
Retail, Private Banking and BoursoBank Progress
French Retail/Private Banking/Insurance revenues +4.2% vs 2024 (excl. disposals); NII up 3.1%; AUM in private banking +9% vs Q4 2024; life insurance outstandings +8%; BoursoBank added 1.9 million clients (+22% vs Q4 2024), AUA EUR 78 billion (+18%), brokerage account openings +25% and loans outstanding +9%.
Mobility & Ayvens Integration Success
Ayvens delivered on 2025 financial targets: reported revenues +15% YoY, total synergies of EUR 360 million, average used-car-sales (UCS) result for 2025 EUR 1,075 per unit (at high end of guidance), and cost-to-income 56.1% (better than guidance).
Asset Quality Within Guidance
Full-year cost of risk 26 basis points (within 25–30 bps guidance); Q4 cost of risk 29 bps; NPL ratio 2.8% and net coverage ratio 82% in Q4 2025.
ESG Recognition and Sustainable Finance Initiatives
Upgraded to AAA by MSCI (one of two major European banks with this rating); deployed a EUR 1 billion investment envelope for energy transition innovation and partnered with EIB/IFC on sustainability solutions.
Negative Updates
Global Markets Q4 Softness and Product Weaknesses
Global Markets Q4 2025 revenues eased by 8% vs Q4 2024; equities revenues -5% in Q4 and fixed income & currencies down 13% vs a very strong Q4 2024; geographic and product mix (heavier Europe/Asia, lower U.S. and commodities exposure) contributed to relative underperformance in the quarter.
Volatility and Normalization at Ayvens (Used Car Sales)
Adjusted Ayvens revenues fell by 8% (when excluding depreciation and one-offs) in Q4; Q4 results per unit sold were EUR 702 versus EUR 1,267 in Q4 2024 (a ~44.6% drop); management expects normalization/lower UCS in 2026 and has factored this into guidance.
Notable Provisions and Stage 3 Provisions in Q4
Q4 Stage 3 provisions totaled EUR 435 million; Stage 1 & 2 provisions remain high at EUR 2.9 billion (stable QoQ), with only a limited net reversal of EUR 26 million in Q4—indicative of continued prudence and provisioning levels.
Transaction Banking & Payment Services Pressure
Transaction Banking and Payment Services revenues declined 5% vs Q4 2024 due to negative interest rate and currency impacts; GTPS full-year revenues eased by 1.2% vs 2024, showing pressure in some fee and interest-sensitive areas.
Execution/Administrative Constraint on Extraordinary Buyback
Extraordinary share buyback launched in November 2025 paused because the share price reached the AGM-authorized maximum purchase price (EUR 75 cap set when shares were ~EUR 40); requires new shareholder resolution—operational constraint on capital return timing.
Competitive Pressure on BoursoBank and Potential Investment Need
Heightened competitive landscape (peer targeting aggressive client growth) could require continued marketing/investment to defend/grow market share; management flagged BoursoBank acquisition cost reductions planned for 2026 but acknowledged competitive dynamics.
Areas of Guidance Ambiguity and Execution Risk
2026 targets (e.g., reported net cost decrease ~3%, NBI growth >2%, cost-to-income <60%, organic RWA growth ~2%) are ambitious; management acknowledged some targets are stretched and depend on continued transformation and market conditions.
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 as a year of measured, profitable growth: net banking income >2% on a reported basis, reported operating costs down ~3%, cost-to-income below 60%, cost of risk within 25–30 bps, ROTE above 10% and organic RWA growth of around 2%; Global Markets guidance (adjusted for Bernstein U.S.) is EUR 5.1–5.7bn with management expecting to be above the top end, and BoursoBank targets a net profit above EUR 300m. These targets build on 2025 results of EUR 27.3bn revenues and ~EUR 6bn group net income (revenues +~7% excl. disposals), costs -2% excl. disposals, a 2025 cost-to-income of 63.6% (improved >5pp), cost of risk 26 bps (29 bps in Q4; 26 bps FY), ROTE 10.2% (9.6% excl. disposal gains), CET1 13.5% after Basel IV and extraordinary buybacks, a proposed ordinary distribution of EUR 2.7bn (EUR 1.61 DPS, including EUR 1.462bn buyback) and total 2025 distributions of EUR 4.679bn (+169% YoY); liquidity reserves stood at EUR 318bn with LCR 144%, NSFR 116%, loan-to-deposit 77%, NPLs 2.8% and net coverage 82%.Societe Generale Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Despite improved profitability versus 2020 and stronger recent margins, the latest period shows a sharp revenue decline, a material step-up in leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow—together increasing earnings durability and balance-sheet risk.Income Statement
Profitability improved from a loss in 2020 to consistent profits through 2025, with 2025 showing a much stronger net margin than prior years. However, the revenue path is volatile: growth was strong into 2023–2024, followed by a very large revenue decline in 2025 (annual). Operating profitability has also been inconsistent across the period, which reduces confidence in earnings durability despite the recent margin improvement.54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage has increased materially, with debt-to-equity rising from about 1.33x (2022) to 2.61x (2024) and then to ~4.76x in 2025 (annual), which heightens balance-sheet risk and sensitivity to funding/credit conditions. Total assets are relatively stable, and return on equity has generally improved versus the low/negative levels seen in 2020–2022, but the sharp 2025 leverage step-up is a notable weakness.41
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is highly unstable: operating cash flow was strong and positive in 2020–2023, but turned negative in 2024 and fell further in 2025 (annual). Free cash flow is also negative in 2024 and 2025, indicating weaker internal funding capacity in the most recent years despite positive net income, which raises questions about earnings cash conversion and near-term flexibility.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 86.16B | 97.64B | 87.14B | 53.99B | 46.12B |
| Gross Profit | 52.60B | 52.51B | 44.36B | 36.10B | 36.25B |
| EBITDA | 19.09B | 16.82B | 12.84B | 9.58B | 13.48B |
| Net Income | 5.77B | 4.20B | 2.49B | 1.82B | 5.64B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.55T | 1.57T | 1.55T | 1.49T | 1.46T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 369.17B | 273.13B | 327.40B | 289.83B | 179.97B |
| Total Debt | 287.17B | 183.09B | 181.13B | 154.80B | 151.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.47T | 1.49T | 1.48T | 1.41T | 1.39T |
| Stockholders Equity | 60.36B | 70.26B | 65.97B | 66.97B | 65.10B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.01B | -21.53B | 25.56B | 29.50B | 13.83B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -19.65B | -10.10B | 37.42B | 39.09B | 20.29B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.44B | -13.74B | -12.07B | -9.01B | -10.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.56B | -1.27B | -3.90B | -214.00M | -3.63B |
Societe Generale Technical Analysis
Negative
13.79
Price Trends
16.53
Negative
15.41
Negative
13.86
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.59
Positive
35.24
Neutral
23.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCGLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.95, below the 50-day MA of 16.53, and below the 200-day MA of 13.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCGLY.
Societe Generale Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $84.76B | 9.08 | 21.64% | 9.77% | 11.82% | 3.41% | |
72 Outperform | $81.36B | 10.18 | 11.88% | 3.11% | 1.79% | 30.93% | |
72 Outperform | $21.90B | 11.00 | 11.45% | 3.74% | 4.00% | 28.54% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $71.00B | 12.62 | 9.93% | 3.19% | -20.94% | -18.71% | |
57 Neutral | $95.89B | 10.79 | 9.73% | 2.31% | -2.84% | 25.48% | |
53 Neutral | $45.62B | 4.27 | 9.61% | 0.60% | -13.59% | 182.59% |
* Financial Sector Average
SCGLY
Societe Generale
14.08
5.03
55.60%
ITUB
Itau Unibanco
7.84
2.77
54.64%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
4.88
1.24
34.14%
MFG
Mizuho Financial
7.59
1.68
28.43%
PNC
PNC Financial
201.71
31.38
18.42%
RF
Regions Financial
25.36
4.00
18.70%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.