Transocean (RIG) Risk Analysis

Our articles of association and Swiss law contain provisions that could prevent or delay an acquisition of the company by means of a tender offer, a proxy contest or otherwise.  Actions taken under such provisions may adversely affect prevailing market prices for our shares, and could, among other things: ?provide that the board of directors is authorized to issue a specified number of shares, which under our current and remaining general share capital authorization as of February 11, 2025 is 12.44 percent of the share capital registered in the commercial register, and to limit or withdraw the preemptive rights of existing shareholders in various circumstances.  Pursuant to the terms of the current general share capital authorization, the board's authority to issue new shares expires on May 29, 2025, subject to shareholders approving a renewal or increase of this authorization in accordance with the current company practice;?provide for a conditional share capital that authorizes the issuance of additional shares up to a maximum amount of 15.0 percent of the share capital registered in the commercial register as of February 11, 2025 without obtaining additional shareholder approval through: (1) the exercise of conversion, exchange, option, warrant or similar rights for the subscription of shares granted in connection with bonds, options, warrants or other securities newly or already issued in national or international capital markets or new or already existing contractual obligations by or of any of our subsidiaries; or (2) in connection with the issuance of shares, options or other share-based awards;?provide that any shareholder who wishes to propose any business or to nominate a person or persons for election as director at any annual meeting may only do so if we are given advance notice;?provide that directors can be removed from office only by the affirmative vote of the holders of at least 66 2/3 percent of the shares entitled to vote;?provide that a merger or demerger transaction requires the affirmative vote of the holders of at least 66 2/3 percent of the shares represented at the meeting and provide for the possibility of a so-called cash-out or squeeze-out merger if the acquirer controls 90 percent of the outstanding shares entitled to vote at the meeting;?provide that any action required or permitted to be taken by the holders of shares must be taken at a duly called annual or extraordinary general meeting of shareholders;?limit the ability of our shareholders to amend or repeal some provisions of our articles of association; and ?limit transactions between us and an "interested shareholder," which is generally defined as a shareholder that, together with its affiliates and associates, beneficially, directly or indirectly, owns 15 percent or more of our shares entitled to vote at a general meeting.

At February 12, 2025, our contract backlog was $8.33 billion.  This amount represents the maximum contractual operating dayrate multiplied by the number of days remaining in the firm contract period, excluding revenues for mobilization, demobilization, contract preparation, other incentive provisions or reimbursement revenues, which are not expected to be significant to our contract drilling revenues.  The contractual operating dayrate may be higher than the actual dayrate we ultimately receive or an alternative contractual dayrate, such as waiting on weather rate, repair rate, standby rate or force majeure rate, may apply under certain circumstances.  The contractual operating dayrate may also be higher than the actual dayrate we ultimately receive due to a number of factors, including rig downtime or suspension of operations.  Several factors could cause rig downtime or a suspension of operations, including: equipment breakdowns and other unforeseen engineering problems, labor strikes and other work stoppages, shortages of material and skilled labor, surveys by government and maritime authorities, periodic classification surveys, severe weather or harsh operating conditions, and force majeure events. In certain drilling contracts, the dayrate may be reduced to zero if, for example, repairs extend beyond a stated period of time.  Our contract backlog includes only firm commitments, which are represented by signed drilling contracts or, in some cases, other definitive agreements awaiting contract execution.  We may not be able to realize the full amount of our contract backlog due to events beyond our control.  In addition, some of our customers have experienced liquidity issues in the past, and these liquidity issues could be experienced again if commodity prices decline for an extended period of time.  Liquidity issues and other market pressures could lead our customers to seek bankruptcy protection or to seek to repudiate, cancel or renegotiate these agreements for various reasons (see "-Our drilling contracts may be terminated due to a number of events, and, during depressed market conditions, our customers may seek to repudiate or renegotiate their contracts").  Our inability to realize the full amount of our contract backlog may have an adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows.

We may pursue transactions that involve the acquisition or disposition of businesses or assets, mergers or joint ventures or other investments that we believe will enable us to further strengthen, streamline or broaden our business.  Any such transaction would be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, and the consummation thereof would be dependent upon several factors, including identifying suitable companies, businesses or assets that align, or no longer align, with our business strategies, reaching agreement with the potential counterparties on acceptable terms, the receipt of any applicable regulatory and other approvals, counterparties fulfilling contractual obligations and other conditions.  These transactions involve various risks, including among others, (i) difficulties related to integrating, separating or managing applicable parts of an acquired, or disposed of, business, assets or joint venture and unanticipated changes in customer and other third-party relationships subsequent to closing, (ii) diversion of management's attention from day-to-day operations, (iii) failure to realize anticipated benefits, such as cost savings, revenue enhancements or strengthening, streamlining or broadening our business, (iv) potentially substantial transaction costs associated with acquisitions, joint ventures or investments if we or a transaction counterparty seeks to exit or terminate an interest in the joint venture or investment, (v) applicable antitrust laws and other regulations that may limit our ability to acquire targets or require us to divest an acquired business or assets, (vi) potential accounting impairment or actual diminution or loss of value of our investment if future market, business or other conditions ultimately differ from our assumptions at the time of such transaction is consummated and (vii) potential accounting impairment upon the decision to reclassify assets as held for sale.

We operate in various regions throughout the world, which may expose us to political and other uncertainties, including risks of: ?terrorist acts, war, piracy and civil unrest;?seizure, expropriation or nationalization of our assets or of our customers' property;?customs delays or disputes;?repudiation or nationalization of contracts;?imposition of trade or immigration barriers;?import-export quotas;?wage and price controls;?changes in law and regulatory requirements, including changes in interpretation and enforcement;?involvement in judicial proceedings in unfavorable jurisdictions;?damage to our equipment or violence directed at our employees, including kidnappings;?complications associated with supplying, repairing and replacing equipment in remote locations;?public health threats, including pandemics, epidemics, severe influenza, coronaviruses and other highly communicable viruses or diseases;?the inability to move income or capital; and ?currency exchange fluctuations and currency exchange restrictions, including exchange or similar controls that may limit our ability to convert local currency into U.S. dollars and transfer funds out of a local jurisdiction. Our non-U.S. contract drilling operations are subject to various laws and regulations related to economic and trade sanctions in certain countries in which we operate, including laws and regulations relating to the import and export, equipment and operation of drilling units, currency conversions and repatriation, oil and gas exploration and development, taxation and social contributions of offshore earnings and earnings of expatriate personnel.  We are also subject to the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control ("OFAC") and other U.S. and non-U.S. laws and regulations governing our international operations.  In addition, various state and municipal governments, universities and other investors have proposed or adopted divestment and other initiatives regarding investments including, with respect to state governments, by state retirement systems in companies that do business with countries that have been designated as state sponsors of terrorism by the U.S. State Department.  Failure to comply with applicable laws and regulations, including those relating to sanctions, tariffs and other trade, import or export restrictions, may subject us to criminal sanctions or civil remedies, including fines, denial of export privileges, injunctions or seizures of assets.  Investors could view any potential violations of OFAC regulations negatively, which could adversely affect our reputation and the market for our shares. Governments in some countries have become increasingly active in regulating and controlling the ownership of concessions and companies holding concessions, the exploration for oil and gas and other aspects of the oil and gas industries in their countries, including local content requirements for participating in tenders for certain drilling contracts.  Many governments currently favor or effectively require – or based upon changes to laws, regulations or interpretations thereof, may in the future favor or effectively require – the awarding of drilling contracts to local contractors or require nonlocal contractors to employ citizens of, or purchase supplies from, a particular jurisdiction or require use of a local agent.  We cannot predict whether any changes to laws, regulations or interpretations thereof would result in modifications to our operations nor whether any such modifications would have a material impact to our business.  In addition, government action, including initiatives by OPEC, may continue to cause oil or gas price volatility.  In some areas of the world, this governmental activity has adversely affected the amount of exploration and development work by major energy companies and may continue to do so. The shipment of goods, services and technology across international borders subjects us to extensive trade laws and regulations.  Our import and export activities are governed by unique customs and export control laws and regulations in each country in which we operate.  Moreover, many countries, including the U.S., control the import and export of certain goods, services and technology and impose related import and export recordkeeping and reporting obligations.  Governments may also impose economic sanctions against certain countries, persons and other entities that may restrict or prohibit transactions involving such countries, persons and entities, and we are also subject to the U.S. anti-boycott laws. The laws and regulations concerning import and export activity, recordkeeping and reporting, import and export control and economic sanctions are complex and constantly changing.  These laws and regulations may be enacted, amended, enforced or interpreted in a manner materially impacting our operations.  Ongoing economic challenges and the current geopolitical environment may increase some governments' efforts to enact, enforce, amend or interpret laws and regulations as a method to increase revenue.  Shipments can be delayed and denied import or export for a variety of reasons, some of which are outside our control and some of which may result from failure to comply with existing legal and regulatory regimes.  Shipping delays or denials could cause unscheduled operational downtime.  Changes to foreign trade policies of the U.S. and other countries could lead to the imposition of additional trade barriers and tariffs in jurisdictions in which we operate or from which we or our suppliers procure materials and equipment.  We cannot predict what changes to trade policies will be made, including whether existing tariff policies will be maintained or modified or whether the entry into new bilateral or multilateral trade agreements will occur, nor can we predict the effects that any such potential changes would have on our business. Our results are directly affected by the applicability of certain customs duties and importation tax relief programs under customs regimes for the exportation and importation of goods and equipment, including rigs, related to the oil and gas sector.  Among other incentives, such programs grant full suspension of certain import taxes, resulting in reduced tax burdens from operations.  If unprecedented interpretations are applied by the customs and tax authorities governing  such programs and regimes, including those that would deny us the use of such incentives granted historically in the ordinary course, and assuming we are unable to successfully challenge such interpretation or otherwise able to recover any amounts pursuant to the contractual provisions of the applicable drilling contract, then the amount of the applicable tariff, which would depend on many factors, could reasonably be expected to increase our operating costs. Our ability to operate worldwide depends on our ability to obtain the necessary visas and work permits for our personnel to travel in and out of, and to work in, the jurisdictions in which we operate.  Governmental actions in some of the jurisdictions in which we operate may make it difficult for us to move our personnel in and out of these jurisdictions by delaying or withholding the approval of these permits.  If we are not able to obtain visas and work permits for the employees we need to conduct our operations on a timely basis, we might not be able to perform our obligations under our drilling contracts, which could allow our customers to cancel the contracts.  If our customers cancel some of our drilling contracts, and we are unable to secure new drilling contracts on a timely basis and on substantially similar terms, it could have a material adverse effect on our business and on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows.

The offshore contract drilling industry is highly competitive with numerous industry participants, none of which has a dominant market share.  Drilling contracts are traditionally awarded on a competitive bid basis.  Although rig availability, service quality and technical capability are drivers of customer contract awards, bid pricing and intense price competition are often key determinants for which a qualified contractor is awarded a job. The offshore drilling industry is highly cyclical and is impacted by oil and natural gas price levels and volatility.  Periods of high customer demand, limited rig supply and high dayrates have been followed by periods of low customer demand, excess rig supply and low dayrates.  Changes in commodity prices can have a dramatic effect on rig demand, and periods of excess rig supply may intensify competition in the industry and result in the idling of older and less technologically advanced equipment.  We have idled and stacked rigs, and may in the future idle or stack additional rigs or enter into lower dayrate drilling contracts in response to market conditions.  Idled or stacked rigs may remain out of service for extended periods of time.  During prior periods of high dayrates and rig utilization rates, we and other industry participants responded to increased customer demand by increasing the supply of rigs through ordering the construction of new units.  The introduction of new units delivered without contracts, combined with an increased number of rigs in the global market completing contracts and becoming idle, may intensify price competition.  During periods of low oil and natural gas price levels, new construction has resulted in an oversupply of rigs and has caused a subsequent decline in dayrates and rig utilization rates, sometimes for extended periods of time.  In an oversupplied market, we may have limited bargaining power to negotiate on more favorable terms.  Additionally, lower market dayrates and intense price competition may drive customers to seek to renegotiate existing contracts to reduce dayrates in exchange for longer contract terms.  Lower dayrates and rig utilization rates could adversely affect our revenues and profitability. As of February 12, 2025, we have 10 uncontracted rigs, of which seven have been out of service for greater than five years, and these rigs may remain out of service for extended periods of time.  If we are unable to obtain drilling contracts for our uncontracted rigs, whether due to a prolonged offshore drilling market downturn, a delayed or muted recovery of such market or otherwise, it may have an adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows.

We engage in offshore drilling services for most of the leading integrated energy companies or their affiliates, as well as for many government-owned or government-controlled energy companies and other independent energy companies.  For the year ended December 31, 2024, our most significant customers were Shell, Petrobras and Equinor, representing 27 percent, 21 percent and 13 percent, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues.  As of February 12, 2025, the customers with the most significant aggregate amount of contract backlog associated with our drilling contracts were Petrobras and Shell, representing 24 percent and 17 percent, respectively, of our total contract backlog.  The loss of any of these customers or another significant customer, or a decline in payments under any of our drilling contracts, could, at least in the short term, have an adverse effect on our business.

We depend on data and digital technologies to conduct our offshore and onshore operations, to collect payments from customers and to pay vendors and employees.  Our data protection measures and measures taken by our customers and vendors may not prevent unauthorized access of information technology systems, and when such unauthorized access occurs, we, our customers or vendors may not detect the incident in time to prevent harm or damage.  Threats to our information technology systems, and the systems of our customers and vendors, associated with cybersecurity risks and cyber-incidents or attacks continue to grow and may pose new or unknown cybersecurity risks and challenges, including as a result of the use of emerging technologies, such as AI, machine learning, generative AI and large language models.  Such threats may derive from human error, fraud or malice, social engineering on the part of employees or third parties, or may result from accidental technological failure.  In addition, breaches to our systems and systems of our customers and vendors could go unnoticed for some period of time.  Risks associated with these threats include disruptions of certain systems on our rigs; other impairments of our ability to conduct our operations; loss or ransom of intellectual property, proprietary information, personal identifiable information or customer and vendor data; disruption of our customers' and vendors' operations; misappropriation of assets; loss or damage to our customer and vendor data delivery systems; and increased costs to prevent, respond to or mitigate cybersecurity events.  A breach could also originate from, or compromise, our customers' and vendors' or other third-party networks outside of our control.  A breach may also result in legal claims or proceedings against us by our shareholders, employees, customers, vendors and governmental authorities, both U.S. and non-U.S.  If such a cyber-incident were to occur, it could have a material adverse effect on our business or on our financial position, results of operations or cash flows. In addition, data privacy and the unauthorized disclosure of personal data and confidential information pose increasingly complex compliance challenges and have the potential to elevate our costs under various laws and regulations, including privacy regulations that have been adopted or may in the future be adopted by, or be applicable from time to time to, countries, states, and other jurisdictions or authorities.  Any failure by us to comply with these laws and regulations, including as a result of a security or privacy breach, could result in significant penalties, litigation and liabilities for us.  Additionally, if we acquire a company that has violated or is not in compliance with applicable data protection laws, we may incur significant liabilities and penalties as a result.