Patriot National Bancorp (PNBK) Risk Analysis

The Company is exposed to changes in economic conditions and general downturns in the U.S. economy, and particularly an economic slowdown in the Fairfield or New Haven counties of Connecticut and the New York metropolitan area could result in the following consequences, any of which may have a material detrimental effect on the Bank's business: - Increases in: -Loan delinquencies;-Problem assets and foreclosures; or - Decreases in: -Demand for the Bank's products and services;-Customer borrowing power that is caused by declines in the value of assets and/or collateral supporting the Bank's loans, especially real estate. During the years 2007 through 2009, the general economic conditions and specific business conditions in the United States, including in Connecticut and New York deteriorated, resulting in increases in loan delinquencies, problem assets and foreclosures, and declines in the value and collateral associated with the Bank's loans. Two significant impacts resulting from the financial crisis included the housing market suffering falling home prices leading to increased foreclosures and our customer base experiencing rampant unemployment and sustained under-employment. These conditions negatively impacted the credit performance of mortgage and construction loans, and resulted in significant asset-value write-downs by financial institutions, including government-sponsored enterprises, as well as major commercial and investment banks. The loss of mortgage and construction loan asset-value caused many financial institutions to seek additional capital, to merge with larger and financially stronger financial institutions and, in some cases, to fail. Many lenders and institutional investors reduced or ceased providing funding to borrowers, including other financial institutions. During 2010 through 2019, however, the economic climate generally improved, contributing to decreases in the Bank's problem assets, delinquencies and foreclosures from the levels experienced in the earlier period of economic turbulence. During the course of the COVID-19 pandemic covering all of 2020 and a significant portion of 2021 and 2022, a temporary disruption and level of uncertainty existed. For a period of time, delinquencies, deferrals and problem assets rose, however foreclosures were relatively unaffected due to the moratorium that was issued by many states. Much of this has stabilized and returned to previous operating levels. The Company is unable to predict, however, future economic conditions and their impact on the Company's business. Market turmoil, and the tightening of credit by the Fed, could lead to an increased level of commercial and consumer delinquencies, lack of consumer confidence, increased market volatility, and generally widespread reductions in business activity. The resulting economic pressure on consumers and lack of confidence in the financial markets could adversely affect the Company's business, financial condition, and results of operations. A worsening of these conditions could likely exacerbate the adverse effects these difficult market conditions could have on the Company and other financial institutions. In particular: - Less than optimal economic conditions may continue to affect market confidence levels and may cause adverse changes in payment patterns, thereby causing increased delinquencies, which could affect the Bank's provision for credit losses and charge-off of loans receivable. - The ability to assess the creditworthiness of the Bank's customers, or to accurately estimate loan collateral value, may be impaired if the models and approaches the Bank uses becomes less predictive of future behaviors, valuations, assumptions, or estimates due to the unpredictable economic climate. - Increasing consolidation of financial services companies, as a result of current market conditions, could have unexpected adverse effects on the Bank's ability to compete effectively.