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KRUK SA (PL:KRU)
:KRU
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KRUK SA
(KRU)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
zł539.00
▲(7.11% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:09/28/25
KRUK SA's strong valuation and positive technical indicators are the primary drivers of its score. While financial performance shows profitability, high leverage and negative cash flows are concerns. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.
KRUK SA (KRU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
zł9.03B
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)30.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth17.00%
EPS Growth-3.19%
CountryPL
Employees3,112
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)10.72
Shares Outstanding19,492,338
10 Day Avg. Volume31,239
30 Day Avg. Volume30,576
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)3.65
P/FCF Ratio-14.83
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)64.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)zł3.46B
KRUK SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKRUK Spólka Akcyjna, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the management of debt in Poland, Romania, Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, Spain, and internationally. The company operates through Debt Purchase, Credit Management, and Other segments. It purchases and manages debt portfolios, including consumer, mortgage-backed, and corporate debts; and offers consumer unsecured, mortgage, and SME/corporate loans, as well as credit management services. The company also manages the receivables of banks, loan brokers, insurers, leasing companies, landline and mobile telecommunications operators, cable TV operators, digital TV operators, and FMCG companies. In addition, it provides Novum loan services; detective services; financial intermediation agency services; and auxiliary services to small and medium-sized enterprises. Further, the company collects, processes, and provides credit information on natural persons; offers receivable management services; and portfolio underwriting services. Additionally, the company invests in receivables and certificates of securitization funds; and acquires agricultural real estate properties. KRUK Spólka Akcyjna was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Wroclaw, Poland.
How the Company Makes MoneyKRUK SA generates revenue primarily through the acquisition of non-performing loan portfolios, which it purchases at a discount from financial institutions and other creditors. The company then engages in debt collection efforts to recover the owed amounts, earning profits from the difference between the purchase price of the debts and the amounts collected. Additionally, KRUK SA earns revenue from its debt management services, where it works on behalf of clients to recover debts while charging fees for its services. The company also benefits from partnerships with various banks and financial institutions that provide it access to a steady stream of debt portfolios for acquisition. Factors contributing to its earnings include effective debt recovery strategies, strong market presence in Central and Eastern Europe, and a diversified client base.
KRUK SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operating story: record recoveries, double‑digit EBITDA and asset growth, 20% ROE, a strengthened ERC, solid IRR/money‑multiple metrics, good lending EBITDA, and stable funding. Key negatives were tax-related net profit drag, currency effects (RON depreciation ~PLN 41m), higher operating/digital costs (~PLN 30m OpEx) and market-specific underperformance (Spain, France, some Slovak sales losses) plus investments slightly below plan. Overall, management presents a constructive long‑term strategy (digital transformation, reorganization to an investment vehicle) and expects higher or sustained investment activity in 2026, supporting a positive outlook despite near‑term headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Operating Performance
EBITDA and cash EBITDA grew by 12% year‑on‑year in 2025, marking a record year for the business.
Portfolio and Asset Growth
Portfolio on the balance sheet reached PLN 11.6 billion (approx.), with assets growing ~11–12% year‑on‑year.
Strong Recoveries and ERC Expansion
Record high recoveries in 2025, with recoveries PLN 225 million above the accounting forecast; ERC increased from ~PLN 21 billion previously to PLN 26 billion (management operating plan remains ~PLN 8 billion above accounting ERC).
Solid Returns and Investment Metrics
Gross IRR for 2025 investments ~21% with a ~3x money multiple; management achieved budgetary IRR targets while investing more selectively.
Return on Equity and Capital Structure
Return on equity reached 20% in 2025; leverage remained contained with net debt to cash EBITDA of 2.6x and good access to bank and bond funding.
Lending Business Performance (Wonga)
Lending segment delivered strong results with PLN 170 million EBITDA in 2025 following consolidation of lending activities under the Wonga brand.
Market Leadership and Geographic Strengths
Poland contributed ~40% of recoveries and remains #1 in unsecured consumer portfolio purchases (though market share moderated); Romania posted excellent results with market size rising to ~PLN 800 million (from ~PLN 500 million) and KRUK taking ~70% market share; Italy delivered nearly PLN 300 million EBITDA for the year.
Digital Transformation Progress and Funding Stability
Digital transformation program is underway (PLN ~500 million program earmarked; ~PLN 70 million spent to date with ~PLN 30 million OpEx in 2025); MVP testing planned in H2 2026 and full functionality targeted by 2029. Funding markets (banks and bonds) remain accessible.
Negative Updates
Net Profit and Tax Volatility
Net profit growth was materially smaller than operating growth due to higher taxation and increased deferred tax provisions in 2025; Q4 saw an increase in tax provisioning versus prior year, creating volatility in reported net profit.
Currency Impact
Depreciation of the Romanian leu (RON) versus euro and PLN negatively impacted results by approximately PLN 41 million in 2025.
Investments Below Initial Plan
Portfolio purchases were PLN 2.2 billion in 2025, below the internal plan of PLN 2.5 billion (≈12% below the target), which management attributed partly to reduced buying in Spain and disciplined market positioning in Poland.
Increased Operating Costs
Operating costs rose year‑on‑year driven by salary increases, ~PLN 30 million of digital transformation OpEx in 2025, higher legal costs, and some increase in finance costs from higher debt (partly offset by lower interest rates and PLN ~60 million positive hedging impact).
Underperformance in Spain and France
Spain delivered weaker-than-expected results (full-year EBITDA ~PLN 130 million) with revaluations ~0 as court/legal system delays reduced market activity; France experienced write‑downs and negative revaluation on some portfolios, contributing to lower profitability.
Losses on Market Exits and New Markets
Sales of Slovakian assets in Q4 generated some losses (a few million) and certain new‑market portfolios (e.g., France) underperformed initial valuations due to legal/process differences and limited local control.
Competitive Pressure and Lower IRR in Some Markets
Increased competition (notably in Italy and Poland) and lower interest rates pressured returns; 2025 IRR/multiples were lower than 2024 for these reasons and because a larger share of investments shifted to longer‑curve markets like Italy.
Unrealized Ambitions vs. Budget
Management noted they did not fully realize the higher growth budgeted for 2025 (net profit below budgeted level) despite strong operating performance.
Company Guidance
The management reiterated multi-year guidance to grow profit before tax by c.12% p.a. through 2025–2029 (the incentive plan benchmark) while targeting about PLN 15 billion of cumulative portfolio purchases as a benchmark (with flexibility to achieve targets with ~PLN 13–15bn if returns permit); near-term operational guidance sees 2026 portfolio purchases above 2025’s PLN 2.2bn (management’s 2026 range ~PLN 2.4–2.7bn), continued double‑digit EBITDA and cash EBITDA growth (~12% y/y), and maintained leverage around 2.6x net debt/ cash EBITDA. Key balance‑sheet and recovery metrics: portfolio on balance sheet PLN 11.6bn (up ~11–12%), ERC c. PLN 26bn with an operating plan ~PLN 8bn higher, record recoveries with PLN 225m above accounting forecast in 2025 and c. PLN 500m of positive revaluation recognized (including >PLN 120m in Poland Q4), target ROE ~20% achieved, and portfolio investment economics of ~3x money multiple / ~21% gross IRR in 2025. Other guidance items: digital transformation budget ~PLN 500m (c. PLN 70m spent to date, ~PLN 30m OpEx in 2025) with an MVP test in H2 2026 and full rollout by 2029; strategic reorganization toward a listed alternative investment structure by end‑2027; and market‑level notes (Poland market ~PLN 2.1bn with ~25% KRUK share, Romania market ~PLN 800m with ~70% share, Italy market ~PLN 2.3bn and ~PLN 300m EBITDA in 2025, Spain ~PLN 130m EBITDA and c. PLN 122m invested in 2025).KRUK SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
KRUK SA demonstrates strong profitability with a high net profit margin and consistent revenue growth. However, high leverage and negative cash flows present potential risks, requiring focus on improving cash flow generation.Income Statement
KRUK SA demonstrates strong profitability with a high net profit margin of 43.75% TTM and consistent revenue growth, albeit at a slower pace recently. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, indicating efficient operations. However, the slight decline in net profit margin from the previous year suggests potential pressure on profitability.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity remains strong at 22.84%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
KRUK SA's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative operating and free cash flows TTM. Despite a significant improvement in free cash flow growth, the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting profits into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net income with free cash flow.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.49B | 2.20B | 1.79B | 1.49B | 1.20B | 1.16B |
| Gross Profit | 1.62B | 1.17B | 952.37M | 852.37M | 763.68M | 746.96M |
| EBITDA | 1.23B | 1.00B | 1.03B | 901.84M | 831.49M | 269.17M |
| Net Income | 991.82M | 1.07B | 983.93M | 804.98M | 694.76M | 81.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.68B | 11.65B | 9.93B | 7.68B | 5.91B | 4.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 314.23M | 3.48B | 3.06B | 2.39B | 2.02B | 1.66B |
| Total Debt | 7.17B | 6.63B | 5.53B | 3.95B | 2.87B | 2.22B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.59B | 7.12B | 6.14B | 4.43B | 3.31B | 2.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.08B | 4.53B | 3.79B | 3.25B | 2.60B | 2.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.70M | -542.32M | -827.87M | -602.03M | -304.87M | 726.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 125.32M | -499.13M | -785.25M | -567.77M | -288.80M | 743.52M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -102.73M | -36.41M | -23.33M | -32.27M | -13.61M | -10.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 113.27M | 361.87M | 994.88M | 603.04M | 356.02M | -737.33M |
KRUK SA Technical Analysis
Negative
503.20
Price Trends
485.60
Negative
475.11
Negative
446.84
Positive
Market Momentum
-5.79
Positive
41.52
Neutral
29.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:KRU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 503.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 481.65, above the 50-day MA of 485.60, and above the 200-day MA of 446.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PL:KRU.
KRUK SA Peers Comparison
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.