Pedevco (PED)
:PED
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Pedevco
(PED)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(6.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is held back primarily by volatile financial performance and the 2025 earnings collapse (despite a strong, low-leverage balance sheet and positive operating cash flow). Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend and moderate momentum, while valuation remains challenged due to losses (negative P/E). The earnings call adds support via clear 2026 EBITDA guidance and cost-optimization plans, but liquidity and commodity-sensitivity risks temper confidence.
Positive Factors
Large proved reserves & acreage
A 32.1 MMBOE proved base with 310k+ net acres and >1,000 identified locations creates multi-year development optionality across DJ, Powder River and Permian. This resource scale supports sustained production, multi-year capex phasing and the potential to convert inventory into long-term EBITDA.
Negative Factors
Volatile earnings & 2025 revenue collapse
A sharp 2025 revenue collapse and swing to large GAAP losses highlight weak earnings visibility and volatile profitability. Such volatility complicates multi-year planning, depresses return metrics, and raises execution risk for converting reserves and projects into consistent earnings.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large proved reserves & acreage
A 32.1 MMBOE proved base with 310k+ net acres and >1,000 identified locations creates multi-year development optionality across DJ, Powder River and Permian. This resource scale supports sustained production, multi-year capex phasing and the potential to convert inventory into long-term EBITDA.
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Pedevco (PED) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$212.94M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)159.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth15.67%
EPS Growth-179.22%
CountryUS
Employees14
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.25
Shares Outstanding13,300,621
10 Day Avg. Volume183,283
30 Day Avg. Volume159,247
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.25
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio-5.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside23.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$124.60M
Pedevco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PEDEVCO Corp., an oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas assets in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company held approximately 32,870 net Permian Basin acres located in Ch...
How the Company Makes Money
Pedevco primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and (where applicable) natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the wells and properties in which it holds working interests. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold...
Pedevco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a constructive post-merger outlook: management delivered meaningful scale, large proved reserves (32.1 MM BOE), immediate adjusted EBITDA uplift (+203% YoY in Q4) and identified concrete cost-savings projects that could materially lower LOE (~$10M–$12M annual savings). At the same time, the company faces near-term merger-related GAAP losses, higher unit LOE from acquired assets, commodity-price pressure (realized oil -16% YoY), and limited near-term liquidity with $98M drawn on the credit facility. Most execution and cash-flow upside depends on completing optimization projects (benefits visible mid-2026 into 2027), commodity price realization, and permitting/timing in the basins. Overall, the positives from scale, reserve base, and clear optimization/capital plans materially outweigh the near-term lowlights.Positive Updates
Scale and Production Growth from Juniper Merger
Merger closed Oct 31, 2025 expanded scale: Q4 combined production averaged over 5,300 BOE/day (483,159 BOE in the quarter). Company increased from ~1,500 BOE/day pre-transaction to a combined platform producing in the mid-thousands.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss Driven by Merger-Related Items
Full year 2025 reported net loss of $10.4M driven by $7.5M nonrecurring merger costs, $8.1M deferred income tax expense, $1.4M interest expense, $1.4M note receivable write-off and $2.8M accelerated share-based compensation (partially offset by derivative/asset sale gains).
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Scale and Production Growth from Juniper Merger
Merger closed Oct 31, 2025 expanded scale: Q4 combined production averaged over 5,300 BOE/day (483,159 BOE in the quarter). Company increased from ~1,500 BOE/day pre-transaction to a combined platform producing in the mid-thousands.
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Company Guidance
PEDEVCO guided full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $60–$70 million based on average realized oil of $65/bbl and gas of $3.50/Mcf, with known 2026 capital spending of $16–$20 million (≈$6–7M drilling & completion in the DJ Basin including ~$3M 2025 carryover, and ~$10–13M for optimization projects), ~90% of capex allocated to the DJ Basin, and funding via operating cash flow, cash and credit facility availability (≈$98M drawn as of Feb. 5, 2026 with ~ $25M liquidity; borrowing base $120M under a $250M commitment maturing Oct. 31, 2029). Management expects LOE to fall from the recent $11.62/BOE (full year) as optimization takes hold (projects targeted to cut LOE by up to $1M/month, ≈$10–12M annual savings), cash G&A to settle at ~$3.50–4.00/BOE, and production to show a Q1 2026 flush‑driven peak before normalizing toward ~6,400–6,500 BOE/d (pre‑decline), with leverage targeted ≤1.5x and projected net debt/EBITDA of ~1.2–1.3x at $65 oil by year‑end; the company also highlighted >310,000 net acres, 32.1 MMBOE proved reserves (~$27/share post‑split), an ~88% liquids mix and over 1,000 identified drilling locations.Pedevco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 45.75M | 39.55M | 30.78M | 30.03M | 15.86M |
| Gross Profit | 26.63M | 11.18M | 10.08M | 8.48M | 2.54M |
| EBITDA | 17.74M | 20.82M | 15.04M | 13.88M | 6.18M |
| Net Income | -10.36M | 17.79M | 264.00K | 2.84M | -1.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 375.87M | 133.84M | 129.59M | 116.11M | 98.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.22M | 4.01M | 18.52M | 29.43M | 25.93M |
| Total Debt | 214.00K | 228.00K | 316.00K | 81.00K | 195.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 168.50M | 12.74M | 28.13M | 19.65M | 6.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 207.36M | 121.10M | 101.45M | 96.46M | 91.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.73M | 12.60M | 23.44M | 3.73M | 5.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.76M | 12.77M | 23.48M | 15.98M | 5.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -133.18M | -26.87M | -35.74M | -12.27M | -2.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 122.14M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35.00K | 14.69M |
Pedevco Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.53
Price Trends
14.58
Negative
12.80
Positive
12.42
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Positive
44.90
Neutral
18.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PED, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.09, below the 50-day MA of 14.58, and above the 200-day MA of 12.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PED.
Pedevco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $212.94M | -1.52 | -7.33% | ― | 15.67% | -179.22% | |
| ― | $63.36M | 5.49 | 16.71% | 6.02% | 13.60% | 24.68% | |
85 Outperform | $79.04M | 10.31 | 689.28% | 12.50% | 75.78% | 85.87% | |
| ― | $34.31M | 9.08 | 13.14% | 11.00% | -6.83% | -8.70% |
* Energy Sector Average
PED
Pedevco
16.01
5.01
45.57%
CRT
Cross Timbers Royalty
10.76
1.44
15.45%
PVL
Permianville Royalty
1.92
0.59
44.69%
VOC
VOC Energy
3.26
0.70
27.44%
NRT
North European Oil Royalty
8.60
4.60
115.22%
PRT
Permrock Royalty
2.82
-0.75
-20.90%
Pedevco Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceStock Split
Pedevco Implements Reverse Stock Split and Registration Adjustments
Neutral
Mar 13, 2026
Pedevco has implemented a reverse stock split that affects how its common stock is reflected across its existing shelf and employee equity registration statements filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The change applies as of the...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pedevco Expands Board and Amends Equity, Governance Terms
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, PEDEVCO expanded its board from five to six directors and appointed Juniper executive managing partner Edward Geiser as director and chair of the nominating and corporate governance committee, while naming Josh Schmidt as cha...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pedevco Secures Additional Credit Draw with Preferred Holder Consent
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On October 31, 2025, PEDEVCO Corp. entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Citibank and a syndicate of lenders, establishing a $120 million initial borrowing base and aggregate elected commitments within a revolving facility cap...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Pedevco Updates Executive Compensation Following 2025 Annual Review
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Pedevco Corp. completed its 2025 annual compensation review and approved cash bonuses for its senior leadership team, including the president and CEO, executive vice president and general counsel, chief commercial officer, chi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.