Pedevco (PED)
:PED
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Pedevco
(PED)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(10.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
The score is held back primarily by weak TTM profitability and negative free cash flow despite a low-leverage balance sheet. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call showed strong Q1 operational execution and reiterated 2026 EBITDA/production guidance, while technicals are mixed and valuation is difficult to support with a negative P/E. Recent corporate actions modestly improve funding flexibility but do not fully offset near-term earnings/cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / conservative balance sheet
Extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.001 TTM) gives Pedevco durable financial flexibility, lowering solvency risk and enabling support for drilling, working-capital swings, or opportunistic investments without immediate financing strain. This strengthens resilience across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative profitability and volatile revenue
A ~19% TTM revenue decline combined with a deeply negative net margin (~-98%) and negative EBIT/EBITDA indicate the company is not consistently generating economic profits. Persistent or recurring unprofitability undermines reinvestment ability and long-term shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / conservative balance sheet
Extremely low debt-to-equity (~0.001 TTM) gives Pedevco durable financial flexibility, lowering solvency risk and enabling support for drilling, working-capital swings, or opportunistic investments without immediate financing strain. This strengthens resilience across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Pedevco (PED) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$170.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)159.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth92.26%
EPS Growth-310.54%
CountryUS
Employees14
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.56
Shares Outstanding13,301,403
10 Day Avg. Volume183,283
30 Day Avg. Volume159,247
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.25
Price to Sales (P/S)1.13
P/FCF Ratio-5.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.30
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.53
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside23.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$123.10M
Pedevco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PEDEVCO Corp., an oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil and natural gas assets in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, the company held approximately 32,870 net Permian Basin acres located in Ch...
How the Company Makes Money
Pedevco primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and (where applicable) natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the wells and properties in which it holds working interests. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold...
Pedevco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial performance story: production and revenue grew substantially year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA expanded materially, and working capital improved meaningfully following the merger. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, a sizable multi-basin inventory, and a targeted optimization program expected to lower operating costs materially by 2027. Key near-term risks include a large noncash derivative mark-to-market loss that produced a GAAP net loss, hedging-related realized losses and constraints, an expected mid-year production moderation relative to Q1, and limited near-term liquidity. Overall, the positive execution on operations and cash generation outweighs the headline accounting loss and short-term timing/hedge effects.Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Q1 production averaged 8,091 BOE/day, driven by 31 D-J Basin wells that came online in late 2025 and mostly performed ahead of type curves.
Negative Updates
Net Reported Loss Driven by Derivative Mark-to-Market
GAAP net loss was $25.6 million in Q1 2026, driven primarily by a $31.3 million net loss on derivative contracts, of which $27.9 million was a noncash unrealized mark-to-market loss as commodity prices moved above hedge strikes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Performance
Q1 production averaged 8,091 BOE/day, driven by 31 D-J Basin wells that came online in late 2025 and mostly performed ahead of type curves.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance of average production of 6,500–7,000 BOE/d and adjusted EBITDA of $60–$70 million on $16–$20 million of net capital expenditures, noting Q1 was a high‑water mark (Q1 production 8,091 BOE/d; revenue $40.2M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $21.5M) and production is expected to moderate through the middle of the year as 31 D‑J wells that peaked in Q1 decline; one DUC in the D‑J (WI >90%) is planned for completion mid‑summer/early Q3. They earmarked $10–$13M of 2026 optimization capex (pump conversions and interventions) targeting LOE reductions up to ~$1M per month, while current LOE was $16.4M and per‑unit LOE $22.46/BOE; total G&A was $3.1M (cash G&A $2.6M or $3.59/BOE). Balance sheet and liquidity metrics include a working capital deficit improvement from $34.1M to $7M, net debt ≈ $87M (about $11M below funded debt of $98M), cash + restricted cash ~$11.3M (including $3.6M restricted cash expected to be released), $98M drawn on a $120M revolver leaving ≈$22M availability; Q1 also recorded a net derivative loss of $31.3M (noncash mark‑to‑market $27.9M; realized loss $3.4M), operating cash flow of $10.5M, $16.5M cash paid for drilling/completions and an $11M draw on the revolver during the quarter.Pedevco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 45.75M | 39.55M | 30.78M | 30.03M | 15.86M |
| Gross Profit | 26.63M | 11.18M | 10.08M | 8.48M | 2.54M |
| EBITDA | 17.74M | 20.82M | 15.04M | 13.88M | 6.18M |
| Net Income | -10.36M | 17.79M | 264.00K | 2.84M | -1.30M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 375.87M | 133.84M | 129.59M | 116.11M | 98.22M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.22M | 4.01M | 18.52M | 29.43M | 25.93M |
| Total Debt | 214.00K | 228.00K | 316.00K | 81.00K | 195.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 168.50M | 12.74M | 28.13M | 19.65M | 6.74M |
| Stockholders Equity | 207.36M | 121.10M | 101.45M | 96.46M | 91.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -9.73M | 12.60M | 23.44M | 3.73M | 5.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.76M | 12.77M | 23.48M | 15.98M | 5.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -133.18M | -26.87M | -35.74M | -12.27M | -2.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 122.14M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35.00K | 14.69M |
Pedevco Technical Analysis
Negative
14.53
Price Trends
15.52
Negative
14.06
Negative
12.78
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.55
Positive
37.43
Neutral
4.77
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PED, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.64, below the 50-day MA of 15.52, and above the 200-day MA of 12.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PED.
Pedevco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | $170.92M | -2.78 | -23.10% | ― | 92.26% | -310.54% | |
| ― | $62.37M | 12.64 | 34.20% | 6.02% | 60.32% | 74.97% | |
85 Outperform | $73.62M | 7.67 | 689.28% | 12.50% | 75.78% | 85.87% | |
| ― | $24.45M | 6.70 | 20.50% | 11.00% | -29.38% | -33.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
PED
Pedevco
12.85
-0.15
-1.14%
CRT
Cross Timbers Royalty
10.53
1.58
17.71%
PVL
Permianville Royalty
1.89
0.42
28.40%
VOC
VOC Energy
2.89
0.29
11.07%
NRT
North European Oil Royalty
8.01
3.69
85.42%
PRT
Permrock Royalty
2.01
-1.66
-45.25%
Pedevco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Pedevco Expands Credit Facility and Borrowing Capacity
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, PEDEVCO Corp. entered into a third amendment to its amended and restated credit agreement with Citibank, N.A. and other lenders, increasing the borrowing base and elected commitment from $120 million to $125 million. This redeterm...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pedevco Amends Credit Agreement, Updates Borrowing Base Terms
Neutral
May 8, 2026
On May 5, 2026, PEDEVCO Corp. executed a Second Amendment to its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Citibank, N.A. and other lenders, modifying key financial definitions and schedules tied to its oil and gas collateral. The amendment adjus...
Regulatory Filings and ComplianceStock Split
Pedevco Implements Reverse Stock Split and Registration Adjustments
Neutral
Mar 13, 2026
Pedevco has implemented a reverse stock split that affects how its common stock is reflected across its existing shelf and employee equity registration statements filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The change applies as of the...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Pedevco Expands Board and Amends Equity, Governance Terms
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On February 27, 2026, PEDEVCO expanded its board from five to six directors and appointed Juniper executive managing partner Edward Geiser as director and chair of the nominating and corporate governance committee, while naming Josh Schmidt as cha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.