Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $18.03B
• Dividend Yield: 8.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.97M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -7.53%
• EPS Growth: 11.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,000
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Midstream
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 197,904,130
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,101,006
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,971,420
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.34
• 1Y Price Target: $21.50
• Price Target Upside: -9.17% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $51.76B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(9.84% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/07/26

The score reflects strong cash generation and a positive forward outlook (guidance, distribution growth, cost/synergy initiatives), supported by constructive price momentum. Offsetting these positives are a leveraged balance sheet and very thin net margins, with valuation mixed (high yield but a higher P/E).

Positive Factors

Strong Cash Generation

Sustained, high absolute operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for distributions, maintenance capex, bolt-ons, and debt paydown. Strong cash conversion (~76% of net income) supports multi-quarter financial flexibility and lowers refinancing reliance.

Raised Distribution Policy

Management increased the quarterly distribution and signaled ongoing distribution growth, reflecting confidence in recurring cash flows. A formal distribution raise backed by guidance strengthens the income proposition and aligns capital allocation with predictable midstream cash generation.

Identified Cost Savings & Synergies

A clear $100M efficiency target and $50M run‑rate synergies from Cactus III increase structural EBITDA resilience. Realized savings and bolt‑on synergies should improve margins and cash flow durability over multiple years, reducing unit-level volatility.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

High leverage materially reduces financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to volume or commodity shocks. Elevated debt ratios constrain ability to invest, increase refinancing risk, and mean deleveraging is a necessary multi-quarter priority to restore balance-sheet resilience.

Very Thin Net Margins

Consistently thin net margins indicate limited downside protection for earnings versus revenue swings. Low margin structure makes distributable cash more sensitive to recontracting, throughput declines, or cost inflation, requiring operational improvements to sustain payouts.

Portfolio Actions Reduce Near-Term EBITDA

Divesting the Canadian NGL business trims headline EBITDA and, combined with debt-funded Cactus III, temporarily raises leverage and interest commitments. Execution risk exists until sale proceeds are applied to debt and synergies are fully realized, pressuring near-term stability.

Plains GP Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). The company engages in the transportation of crude oil and NGLs on pipelines, gathering systems, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and leased assets comprising 18,300 miles of crude oil and NGL pipelines and gathering systems; 38 million barrels of above-ground tank capacity; and 1,275 trailers. It engages in the provision of storage, terminalling, and throughput services primarily for crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas; NGL fractionation and isomerization services; and natural gas and condensate processing services. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and operated approximately 74 million barrels of crude oil storage capacity; 28 million barrels of NGL storage capacity; four natural gas processing plants; a condensate processing facility; nine fractionation plants; 16 NGL rail terminals; four marine facilities; and 110 miles of pipelines. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned 15 million barrels of crude oil and 2 NGL linefill; 3 million barrels of crude oil and 1 NGL linefill in pipelines owned by third parties and other inventory; 640 trucks and 1,275 trailers; and 3,900 NGL railcars. The company offers logistics services to producers, refiners, and other customers. PAA GP Holdings LLC operates as a general partner of the company. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

PAGP makes money primarily by receiving distributions and other economic benefits derived from its ownership interests in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA). In practice, PAGP’s cash generation is tied to PAA’s ability to generate operating cash flow from midstream services and then pay cash distributions up to its owners. PAA’s major sources of earnings that flow through to PAGP generally include: (1) Fee-based midstream services: revenues generated from crude oil and NGL pipeline transportation, storage, terminalling, and other logistics services where customers pay tariffs, fees, or capacity/throughput-based charges for moving and handling hydrocarbons. These cash flows are influenced by volumes shipped/stored, contract terms, and the utilization of PAA’s assets. (2) NGL-related activities: earnings associated with PAA’s NGL operations (the specific sub-components and degree of commodity-price exposure vary by activity and contract structure). Because PAGP’s results depend on PAA’s distributable cash flow and distribution policy, key factors affecting PAGP’s earnings include throughput and demand for crude oil and NGL infrastructure, the level and stability of fee-based contracts, operating costs and maintenance/expansion capital needs at PAA, regulatory/tariff considerations for pipelines, and broader commodity market conditions to the extent they influence volumes and margins. Specific significant partnerships: null.

Plains GP Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a major strength (strong TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow with positive FCF growth), but overall financial quality is held back by very thin net margins and a highly leveraged balance sheet (elevated debt-to-equity), which increases downside risk in weaker volume/pricing environments.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined (-5.1%), following uneven growth over the last several years. Profitability is positive but thin at the bottom line (TTM net margin ~0.4%), with mid-single-digit EBITDA margins (~5.9%) and moderate EBIT margins (~3.9%). Net income improved meaningfully versus 2024, but the earnings profile remains sensitive given low net margins and a history that includes a loss in 2020.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears elevated, with a high debt-to-equity reading across the period (TTM ~7.2; 2024 ~5.9), which increases financial risk and reduces flexibility in a down-cycle. Returns on equity are positive (TTM ~13.8%), but the combination of high leverage and historically volatile profitability (including negative returns in 2020) keeps balance-sheet quality below average for stability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM operating cash flow is solid (~$2.9B) and free cash flow is strong (~$2.4B), with positive TTM free-cash-flow growth (+10.3%). Cash flow conversion is healthy (free cash flow is ~76% of net income in TTM), supporting funding capacity. The main watch-out is that operating cash flow covers only about half of reported earnings (TTM ~0.54), suggesting earnings quality can be uneven period-to-period despite strong absolute cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	44.26B	50.07B	48.71B	57.34B	42.08B
Gross Profit	2.67B	3.49B	3.13B	3.20B	2.80B
EBITDA	2.81B	2.68B	3.05B	2.78B	1.91B
Net Income	260.00M	103.00M	198.00M	168.00M	60.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	31.28B	27.76B	28.60B	29.21B	29.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	329.00M	349.00M	453.00M	404.00M	456.00M
Total Debt	11.49B	7.93B	8.03B	8.82B	9.64B
Total Liabilities	17.06B	13.44B	13.63B	14.57B	15.80B
Stockholders Equity	1.34B	1.35B	1.55B	1.52B	1.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.29B	1.84B	2.14B	1.95B	1.66B
Operating Cash Flow	2.93B	2.48B	2.72B	2.40B	1.99B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.36B	-875.00M	-702.00M	-526.00M	386.00M
Financing Cash Flow	399.00M	-1.70B	-1.97B	-1.93B	-1.98B

Plains GP Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 23.67
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.06, above the 50-day MA of 21.57, and above the 200-day MA of 18.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAGP.

Plains GP Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAA	78 Outperform	$15.29B	8.81	14.75%	8.54%	-7.53%	9.74%
DTM	75 Outperform	$13.42B	27.57	9.41%	2.70%	20.39%	-3.85%
WES	74 Outperform	$16.40B	13.53	34.44%	9.13%	5.81%	-13.58%
AM	74 Outperform	$10.72B	20.58	20.12%	4.98%	8.70%	21.42%
HESM	73 Outperform	$8.22B	11.96	59.38%	8.45%	10.78%	19.10%
PAGP	66 Neutral	$18.03B	14.58	19.19%	8.03%	-7.53%	11.27%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Plains GP Holdings Corporate Events

Plains GP Holdings Reports New Material Definitive Agreement

The information provided from Plains GP Holdings is incomplete and does not contain any substantive details about the company’s specific announcement, operational changes, financial results, or strategic initiatives. As a result, it is not possible to determine the nature, timing, or implications of the news release for the company or its stakeholders based on the available text.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Hold with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Plains GP Holdings Reports Strong 2025 Results, Raises Distribution

On February 6, 2026, Plains All American Pipeline and Plains GP Holdings reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with net income attributable to Plains All American rising to $342 million for the quarter and $1.435 billion for the year, and adjusted EBITDA reaching $738 million and $2.833 billion, respectively, alongside an 18% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow to $2.94 billion. The group highlighted a year-end 2025 pro forma leverage ratio of 3.9x, recent refinancing and funding actions around the Cactus III acquisition, and the pending divestiture of its Canadian NGL business—now classified as discontinued operations—to sharpen its focus on crude oil infrastructure; it also issued 2026 guidance calling for roughly $2.75 billion in adjusted EBITDA, projected $1.8 billion in adjusted free cash flow, disciplined capital spending, and a 10% increase in its annualized distribution with a lower coverage threshold, signaling confidence in more predictable cash flows and continued capital returns to unitholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.