NewLake Capital Partners (NLCP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $313.59M
• Dividend Yield: 11.49%
• Average Volume (3M): 90.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 1.19%
• EPS Growth: -2.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 8
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Specialty
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 20,576,836
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 70,852
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 90,398
• PEG Ratio: 15.85
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.82
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.93
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $46.28M

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: $18.50 ▲(19.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—especially very low leverage and solid profitability—supporting downside resilience. Valuation is also supportive with a reasonable P/E and very high dividend yield. These positives are tempered by revenue softness/vacancies and tenant-related risks highlighted on the earnings call, while technicals suggest a moderately positive trend.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet & liquidity

NewLake's exceptionally low leverage, minimal outstanding debt and sizable liquidity provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk, supports dividend continuity during tenant stress, and gives capacity to fund re-tenanting or opportunistic acquisitions without relying on volatile external capital markets.

Strong cash generation and margins

Consistent operating cash flow and high net income margins underpin the company's ability to generate distributable cash. Over the medium term this supports dividend funding and debt service, and provides a buffer to absorb episodic tenant delinquencies despite some historical FCF volatility.

High-quality anchor tenants

Concentration in leading, cash-generative operators gives durable rent stability versus a fragmented tenant base. These tenants' strong margins and operating cash flow reduce short-term credit risk for a material portion of rents, making core rental income more resilient through industry cycles.

Negative Factors

Revenue softness and vacancies

Material revenue decline and ongoing vacant sites signal weaker asset utilization and slower lease-up, which can erode AFFO and slow growth. Prolonged vacancy or slow re-tenanting would pressure distributable cash and increase leasing costs, limiting durable earnings expansion over the medium term.

High dividend payout ratio

Sustaining a high payout consumes most AFFO, reducing retained earnings available for capital improvements, tenant concessions, or absorbing additional delinquencies. Over months, this constrains the firm's ability to invest in re-tenanting or absorb further shocks without tapping external financing.

Sector credit & regulatory headwinds

Structural cannabis industry issues—limited institutional capital, punitive 280E taxation and pockets of tenant insolvency—raise ongoing tenant credit risk. These persistent constraints can slow leasing activity, increase tenant turnover, and raise underwriting risk for NewLake's niche REIT model over the coming months.

NewLake Capital Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NewLake Capital Partners is a leading provider of real estate capital to state-licensed cannabis operators. Founded in 2019, it is a triple-net lease REIT that acquires industrial and retail properties through sale-leaseback transactions, third-party purchases and build-to-suit projects. Its tenants are some of the leading operators in the U.S. state-licensed cannabis industry and it is a trusted partner for their real estate needs.

How the Company Makes Money

NewLake Capital Partners generates revenue primarily through leasing its properties to tenants in the cannabis industry. The company's revenue model is centered around long-term leases, typically structured as triple net leases, where tenants are responsible for property expenses like maintenance, taxes, and insurance. This arrangement not only provides a steady income stream but also mitigates operational risks for NLCP. Additionally, the company engages in sale-leaseback transactions, allowing cannabis operators to raise capital by selling their real estate assets and leasing them back, which further enhances NLCP's property portfolio and rental income. Key revenue streams include rental income from its growing portfolio of cannabis-related properties and potential appreciation in property value. Partnerships with established cannabis operators and a focus on compliant, licensed facilities contribute significantly to NLCP's earnings stability and growth prospects.

NewLake Capital Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and an exceptionally conservative balance sheet (TTM debt-to-equity ~2% and total debt $0 TTM in the financial statements) support resilience. Offsetting factors are the notable TTM revenue contraction (~-33.6%) and historically volatile free cash flow trends despite currently solid cash conversion.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income margin is strong (~51%) with healthy operating profitability, and results have been consistently profitable since 2021. Revenue expanded steadily from 2021–2024, but the trajectory softened in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a notable revenue decline (~-33.6%), which is the key near-term concern despite margins holding up.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears very conservative for a REIT, with extremely low leverage (debt-to-equity ~2% in both 2024 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and total debt at $0 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Equity remains substantial (~$388M TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), supporting financial flexibility. The main watch item is returns: return on equity is positive but modest (~6–7%), reflecting steady but not high capital efficiency.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both strong in 2023–TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~$40–$43M) and closely aligned with net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.0). However, free cash flow growth is volatile, including a negative free cash flow year in 2022 and a sharp decline in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) growth, indicating uneven cash flow momentum even though current conversion is good.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	51.07M	50.13M	47.30M	44.79M	28.20M
Gross Profit	18.84M	49.89M	46.65M	44.73M	28.06M
EBITDA	43.13M	42.03M	39.67M	35.34M	19.69M
Net Income	26.32M	26.11M	24.59M	21.98M	11.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	420.83M	431.54M	433.29M	454.25M	460.88M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.94M	20.21M	25.84M	45.19M	127.10M
Total Debt	7.72M	7.72M	2.19M	2.99M	3.76M
Total Liabilities	26.14M	27.56M	21.34M	23.31M	21.55M
Stockholders Equity	387.94M	396.76M	404.58M	423.55M	427.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.40M	43.35M	40.08M	-8.24M	11.53M
Operating Cash Flow	42.11M	43.35M	40.08M	37.01M	26.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.49M	-19.14M	-12.84M	-86.45M	-39.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-36.90M	-29.84M	-46.60M	-32.46M	120.69M

NewLake Capital Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NLCP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.43, above the 50-day MA of 15.40, and above the 200-day MA of 13.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NLCP.

NewLake Capital Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NLCP	80 Outperform	$313.59M	12.48	6.72%	11.49%	1.19%	-2.80%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
AFCG	48 Neutral	$64.47M	-3.07	-11.32%	30.82%	-47.13%	-361.12%

NewLake Capital Partners Corporate Events

NewLake Capital Partners Posts Solid Q4 2025 Results

NewLake Capital Partners reported that for the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue was $12.3 million, with net income attributable to common stockholders of $6.0 million, funds from operations of $10.0 million and adjusted funds from operations of $10.6 million, while declaring a quarterly dividend of $0.43 per share. For the full year ended December 31, 2025, revenue rose modestly to $51.1 million and AFFO inched higher despite tenant vacancies tied to AYR Wellness and Revolutionary Clinics, as the company executed selective acquisitions in Ohio, completed a like-kind property exchange, and ended the year with $106.3 million of liquidity, minimal leverage and no debt maturities until May 2027.

During 2025 NewLake acquired two Ohio dispensaries with additional improvement commitments and swapped a Mokena, Illinois dispensary for a Brookville, Pennsylvania site, moves that modestly expanded and repositioned its portfolio in the face of industry tenant dislocation. Management highlighted that full-year performance exceeded 2024 levels despite these headwinds, pointing to disciplined portfolio management, re-tenanting efforts and strong balance sheet flexibility as key supports for sustaining its dividend and long-term value proposition to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (NLCP) stock is a Buy with a $17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NewLake Capital Partners stock, see the NLCP Stock Forecast page.