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Adyen NV (NL:ADYEN)
:ADYEN

Adyen (ADYEN) AI Stock Analysis

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Adyen

(OTC:ADYEN)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
€1,921.00
▲(12.66%Upside)
Adyen's overall score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which are the most significant factors. Technical analysis indicates positive momentum but suggests caution due to high valuation metrics.
Positive Factors
Merger Opportunities
Ongoing opportunity from the GPN-WP merger contributes to the positive outlook.
Product Development
Current trends and product developments, such as Uplift and Stable coin, enhance the company's potential.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Macro uncertainty will remain an overhang for the foreseeable future, especially after Q4 being the toughest comp.
Revenue Growth Challenges
Adyen delivered a miss on revenue/volume as ramp down of Block impacted digital.

Adyen (ADYEN) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)

Adyen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdyen N.V. operates a payments platform in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, the Asia Pacific, Latin America. The company's platform integrates payments stack that include gateway, risk management, processing, issuing, acquiring, and settlement services. It offers a back-end infrastructure for authorizing payments across merchants' sales channels, as well as online, mobile, in-store, and APIs; and data insights. The company's platform services a range of merchants across various verticals, connecting them directly to Visa, Mastercard, and other payment methods. Adyen N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
How the Company Makes MoneyAdyen makes money primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments. These fees are typically a percentage of the transaction value plus a fixed fee per transaction. The company also earns revenue by providing additional services such as fraud prevention, data analytics, and currency conversion. Adyen's significant partnerships with major global companies, such as Uber, Spotify, and eBay, contribute to its earnings by driving high transaction volumes through its platform. Additionally, Adyen benefits from a subscription-based model for certain value-added services, enhancing its revenue streams.

Adyen Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 8.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a generally positive sentiment, with significant achievements in revenue growth, margin expansion, and product innovation. Despite some challenges with specific customer volume declines and regional currency impacts, the company's strategic investments and customer satisfaction indicators are strong.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Net revenues grew to approximately €1.1 billion, marking a 22% growth for the period, primarily driven by the existing customer base and increased share of wallet.
EBITDA Margin Expansion
EBITDA margins expanded to 53% in the second half of the year and just under 50% for the full year, attributed to strong net revenue growth and reduced hiring.
Product Innovation Success
New products like Intelligent Payment Routing and Uplift have shown success, with a 26% cost reduction and 22 basis points increase in conversion, doubling merchant adoption.
Regional Growth and Investment
EMEA was the fastest-growing region, with significant growth and market share gains in North America. Investments are being made in key APAC markets like Japan and India.
Record Transaction Volumes
Processed over €1 trillion in volume over the past year, with 160,000 transactions per minute during peak periods like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
Net Promoter Score
Achieved an all-time high Net Promoter Score of 66, indicating strong customer satisfaction and appreciation.
Negative Updates
Impact of Large Customer Volume Decline
Volumes from a large digital customer declined throughout the second half, with no remaining volumes by year-end, impacting growth comparisons.
LATAM Growth Challenges
LATAM growth was affected by currency impacts, although constant currency growth was positive at 12%.
Company Guidance
During Adyen's H2 2024 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance on its financial performance and strategic initiatives. Adyen reported net revenue growth of 22% for the period, reaching nearly €1.1 billion, driven primarily by increased share of wallet from existing customers. The EBITDA margin expanded to 53% in H2 and just under 50% for the full year, attributed to robust revenue growth and a strategic slowdown in hiring. In terms of product innovation, Adyen highlighted the successful launch of products like Intelligent Payment Routing, which resulted in a 26% cost reduction and a 22 basis point increase in conversion for pilot customers. The company processed over €1 trillion in volume last year, with a net promoter score reaching an all-time high of 66. Regional performance was strong, particularly in EMEA, which was the fastest-growing market, and North America, where Adyen continued to gain market share. The outlook for 2025 includes expected net revenue growth in the low-20s to high-20s, with slight acceleration compared to 2024, alongside continued EBITDA margin expansion, albeit at a slower pace. Adyen plans to increase hiring in 2025, with a focus on North America, while maintaining margin expansion. The company also discussed the regulatory environment as an opportunity to innovate and highlighted advancements in its embedded finance solutions.

Adyen Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.93B1.86B1.33B1.00B684.20M534.30M
Gross Profit
1.10B1.63B948.92M759.80M503.63M411.33M
EBIT
982.36M995.26M664.73M594.73M373.73M294.41M
EBITDA
861.67M1.03B755.81M653.29M414.33M325.11M
Net Income Common Stockholders
825.76M698.32M564.14M469.72M261.02M204.04M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
869.92M8.31B6.52B4.62B2.75B1.76B
Total Assets
1.14B9.57B7.62B5.78B4.16B2.61B
Total Debt
0.00223.06M203.07M142.96M131.49M61.69M
Net Debt
-862.93M-8.08B-6.32B-4.47B-2.61B-1.68B
Total Liabilities
742.29M6.42B5.20B3.97B2.94B1.69B
Stockholders Equity
389.78M3.15B2.41B1.81B1.22B918.33M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
911.62M1.80B1.93B1.77B999.55M514.27M
Operating Cash Flow
966.06M1.87B2.02B1.82B1.02B529.46M
Investing Cash Flow
-75.08M-69.74M-87.69M-42.13M-22.16M-22.76M
Financing Cash Flow
1.44B-20.61M-12.22M96.24M3.39M9.36M

Adyen Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1705.20
Price Trends
50DMA
1508.16
Positive
100DMA
1557.03
Positive
200DMA
1469.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
44.67
Negative
RSI
65.63
Neutral
STOCH
83.20
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:ADYEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1705.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1643.04, above the 50-day MA of 1508.16, and above the 200-day MA of 1469.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 44.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.20 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NL:ADYEN.

Adyen Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$53.00B57.3425.46%17.05%32.05%
62
Neutral
$11.75B10.58-7.10%2.91%7.47%-7.95%
DE2DS
€229.17M-181.17%
€2.21B53.19
0.65%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NL:ADYEN
Adyen
1,705.20
473.40
38.43%
DE:2DS
CM.com N.V.
7.36
0.43
6.20%
NL:THEON
Theon International Plc
32.00
18.24
132.56%
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.