Adyen NV (NL:ADYEN)
:ADYEN
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Adyen
(ADYEN)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
€972.00
▼(-1.31% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/05/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (re-accelerating growth, best-in-class margins, and low leverage), but is materially weighed down by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and the sharp drop in 2025 free cash flow. Valuation is moderate-to-premium (P/E ~25) without a provided dividend yield to offset.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Re-accelerating 2025 revenue growth (+21.9%) indicates durable demand for Adyen's payments platform and continued merchant adoption. Over the medium term, recurring transaction fees and platform traction support predictable top-line expansion tied to structural e-commerce and omnichannel payments growth.
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Drop
A ~63% YoY fall in free cash flow, despite high absolute operating cash, suggests working-capital swings or increased reinvestment that erode cash cushions. Persisting FCF volatility can constrain capital allocation flexibility for buybacks, dividends, or M&A over the coming 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Re-accelerating 2025 revenue growth (+21.9%) indicates durable demand for Adyen's payments platform and continued merchant adoption. Over the medium term, recurring transaction fees and platform traction support predictable top-line expansion tied to structural e-commerce and omnichannel payments growth.
Read all positive factors
Adyen (ADYEN) vs. iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN)
Market Cap
€28.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)69.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.8
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth18.21%
EPS Growth13.41%
CountryNL
Employees4,345
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)33.73
Shares Outstanding31,547,676
10 Day Avg. Volume74,586
30 Day Avg. Volume69,325
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.00
Price to Book (P/B)8.20
Price to Sales (P/S)16.21
P/FCF Ratio47.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€1,447.45Price Target Upside46.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)38.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)€2.83B
Adyen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adyen N.V. provides a global payment processing platform, reaching clients across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. This integrated system offers a complete payments stack, incorporating gateway servi...
How the Company Makes Money
Adyen primarily makes money by charging merchants and platforms for processing payments through its end-to-end payments infrastructure. Its main revenue stream is payment processing and acquiring fees earned when a customer transaction is authoriz...
Adyen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized durable, diversified growth and profitability: 21% constant-currency net revenue growth in H2 2025, 23% EBITDA growth and a 55% EBITDA margin for the half, strong pillar performance (Platforms fastest-growing), notable customer and market wins (Starbucks, Japan, India, LatAm), and promising AI-powered product results (Personalize: +6% conversion / -3% cost). Near-term headwinds include USD-driven reported growth pressure, APAC retailer-related volume impacts, early-stage agentic commerce adoption, and modest near-term margin pressure from added hiring. Management provided a 2026 guide of 20%–22% constant-currency growth and reiterated a path to >55% EBITDA margin by 2028. Overall, positives (growth, margin, product innovation, geographic expansion) outweigh the near-term challenges and timing/FX volatility.Positive Updates
Strong Net Revenue Growth (H2 2025)
Net revenue grew 21% in H2 2025 on a constant currency basis (reported growth lower due to U.S. dollar headwinds), driven largely by expansion with existing customers and a strong cohort of new customers added in 2025.
Negative Updates
FX Headwinds (U.S. Dollar)
Reported growth was dampened by U.S. dollar strength, with management calling out ongoing currency headwinds particularly impacting reported results in early 2026 (notably Q1).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Net Revenue Growth (H2 2025)
Net revenue grew 21% in H2 2025 on a constant currency basis (reported growth lower due to U.S. dollar headwinds), driven largely by expansion with existing customers and a strong cohort of new customers added in 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Adyen guided 2026 net revenue growth of 20–22% on a constant‑currency basis (noting reported growth is lower due to USD headwinds); that builds off H2 2025 net revenue growth of +21% cc, H2 EBITDA growth of +23% and an H2 EBITDA margin of 55%. Management expects 2026 EBITDA margin roughly in line with 2025 as it continues to invest in the team (headcount planned to grow slightly above ~10%), while targeting >55% EBITDA margin by 2028; CapEx is expected to remain around 5% (≤5%) of net revenue. They also noted market‑volume growth should stay at 2025 levels, the 2025 new‑customer cohort was very strong (about two‑thirds of new merchants enable Uplift from day one), and Dynamic Identification pilots (Personalize) showed ~+6% conversion and ~‑3% cost for merchants; agentic‑commerce volumes remain immaterial today.Adyen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.67B | 2.01B | 1.63B | 1.33B | 1.00B |
| Gross Profit | 2.09B | 1.32B | 1.01B | 948.92M | 759.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.54B | 954.72M | 727.79M | 693.08M | 610.05M |
| Net Income | 1.06B | 925.16M | 698.32M | 564.14M | 469.72M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.26B | 11.43B | 9.57B | 7.62B | 5.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.83B | 9.99B | 8.22B | 6.45B | 4.60B |
| Total Debt | 252.37M | 228.26M | 223.06M | 203.07M | 142.96M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.97B | 7.19B | 6.42B | 5.20B | 3.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.29B | 4.23B | 3.15B | 2.42B | 1.81B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 904.63M | 1.60B | 1.80B | 1.93B | 1.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 1.70B | 1.87B | 2.02B | 1.82B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -129.54M | -118.62M | -69.74M | -87.69M | -42.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.88M | 70.60M | -20.61M | -12.22M | 96.24M |
Adyen Technical Analysis
Neutral
984.90
Price Trends
917.74
Negative
953.38
Negative
1175.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-16.39
Negative
52.78
Neutral
85.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NL:ADYEN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 984.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 886.33, above the 50-day MA of 917.74, and below the 200-day MA of 1175.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -16.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NL:ADYEN.
Adyen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
NL:ADYEN
Adyen
875.80
-655.80
-42.82%
NL:CMCOM
CM.com N.V.
6.94
0.23
3.43%
NL:EAS2P
Ease2pay N.V.
0.38
-0.01
-2.56%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.