Noble Corporation (NE) Risk Analysis

As of February 6, 2026, there were 159,197,398 Ordinary Shares outstanding. In addition, as of February 6, 2026, 885,902 Tranche 1 Warrants (as defined below) and 941,557 Tranche 2 Warrants (as defined below) were outstanding and exercisable. In addition, new equity awards may be granted under the Noble Corporation plc 2022 Long-Term Incentive Plan, pursuant to which, up to 3,881,176 new Ordinary Shares may be issued. A large percentage of the Ordinary Shares (or warrants exercisable for Ordinary Shares) are held by a relatively small number of investors. Sales of a substantial number of the Ordinary Shares in the public markets, exercise of a substantial number of warrants, or even the perception that these sales or exercises might occur, could impair our ability to raise capital for our operations through a future sale of, or pay for acquisitions using, our equity securities. As of February 6, 2026, the Mandatory Exercise Condition (as defined in the applicable warrant agreement) for the Tranche 1 Warrants and the Tranche 2 Warrants had been satisfied. Between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, an aggregate of 875 Ordinary Shares were issued pursuant to exercise of Tranche 1 Warrants, Tranche 2 Warrants, and Tranche 3 Warrants (as defined below). These exercises, and continued exercises of these warrants into Ordinary Shares pursuant to the terms of the outstanding warrants, will have a dilutive effect to the holdings of our existing shareholders. We used Ordinary Shares for part of the consideration in the Diamond Transaction and may issue Ordinary Shares or other securities from time to time as consideration for future acquisitions and investments. If any such acquisition or investment is significant, the number of Ordinary Shares, or the number or aggregate principal amount, as the case may be, of other securities that we may issue may in turn be substantial. We may also grant registration rights covering those Ordinary Shares or other securities in connection with any such acquisitions and investments. We cannot predict the effect that future sales of Ordinary Shares will have on the price at which the Ordinary Shares trade or the size of future issuances of Ordinary Shares or the effect, if any, that future issuances will have on the market price of the Ordinary Shares. Sales of substantial amounts of the Ordinary Shares, or the perception that such sales could occur, may adversely affect the trading price of the Ordinary Shares.

Generally, contract backlog only includes future revenues under signed drilling contracts. We may not be able to perform under these contracts as a result of operational or other breaches or due to events beyond our control, and we may not ultimately execute a definitive agreement in cases where one does not currently exist. Moreover, we can provide no assurance that our customers will be able or willing to fulfill their contractual commitments to us or that they will not seek to renegotiate or repudiate their contracts or, for certain customers, reallocate term among contracted rigs, especially during an industry downturn. The terms of some of our drilling contracts permit the customer to terminate the contract after specified notice periods by tendering contractually specified termination amounts or, in certain cases, without any payment. In estimating backlog, we make certain assumptions about applicable dayrates under our longer-term contracts which have dayrate adjustment mechanisms (like certain of our contracts with ExxonMobil, AkerBP, and Petrobras) or performance-based components (like certain of our contracts with Shell plc and TotalEnergies). In addition, from time to time, we may report anticipated commitments under letters of intent or awards for which definitive agreements have not yet been, but are expected to be, signed. We cannot assure you that actual results will mirror these assumptions. Our inability to perform under our contractual obligations or execute definitive agreements, our customers' inability or unwillingness to fulfill their contractual commitments to us, including as a result of contract repudiations or our decision to accept less favorable terms on our drilling contracts, or the failure of actual results to reflect the assumptions we use to estimate backlog for certain contracts, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

The 2023 Revolving Credit Agreement (as defined below) contains various restrictive covenants that may limit our management's discretion in certain respects. In particular, the 2023 Revolving Credit Agreement limits the ability of Noble Finance II LLC ("Noble Finance II") and the ability of its restricted subsidiaries to, among other things and subject to certain limitations and exceptions, (i) incur, assume or guarantee additional indebtedness, (ii) pay dividends or distributions on capital stock or redeem or repurchase capital stock, (iii) make investments, (iv) repay, redeem, or amend certain indebtedness, (v) sell stock of its subsidiaries, (vi) transfer or sell assets, (vii) create, incur, or assume liens, (viii) enter into transactions with certain affiliates, (ix) merge or consolidate with or into any other person or undergo certain other fundamental changes, and (x) enter into certain burdensome agreements. In addition, the 2023 Revolving Credit Agreement obligates Noble Finance II and its restricted subsidiaries to comply with certain financial maintenance covenants and, under certain conditions, to make mandatory prepayments and reduce the amount of credit available under the 2023 Revolving Credit Facility, all as described in Part II, Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity and Capital Resources - Amended and Restated Senior Secured Revolving Credit Agreement." Such mandatory prepayments and commitment reductions may affect cash available for use in the Company's business. Our failure to comply with these covenants could result in an event of default which, if not cured or waived, could result in all obligations under the 2023 Revolving Credit Facility to be declared due and payable immediately and all commitments thereunder to be terminated. The 8.000% Senior Notes due 2030 (the "2030 Notes") are fully and unconditionally guaranteed, jointly and severally, by the direct and indirect subsidiaries of Noble Finance II that are guarantors under the 2023 Revolving Credit Facility. The ability of Noble Finance II to comply with the covenants and restrictions contained in the indenture for the 2030 Notes may be affected by events beyond its control. If market or other economic conditions deteriorate, our ability to comply with these covenants and restrictions may be impaired. A failure to comply with the covenants, ratios, or tests in the indenture, if not cured or waived, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Our existing and future indebtedness may have cross-default and cross-acceleration provisions. Upon the triggering of any such provision, the relevant creditor may: ?not be required to lend any additional amounts to Noble Finance II;?elect to declare all borrowings outstanding due to them, together with accrued and unpaid interest and fees, to be due and payable;?have the ability to require Noble Finance II to apply all of its available cash to repay such borrowings; and/or ?prevent Noble Finance II from making debt service payments under its other agreements, any of which could result in an event of default under the 2030 Notes. If any of our existing indebtedness were to be accelerated, there can be no assurance that we would have, or be able to obtain, sufficient funds to repay such indebtedness in full. Even if new financing were available, it may be on terms that are less attractive than the 2023 Revolving Credit Facility or the 2030 Notes or it may not be on terms that are acceptable to us. In addition, the Diamond 8.500% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due October 2030 (the "Diamond Second Lien Notes") are issued by Diamond Foreign Asset Company and Diamond Finance, LLC (collectively, the "Issuers") and are fully and unconditionally guaranteed, jointly and severally, on a senior secured basis by Noble Offshore Drilling, Inc. (formerly known as Dolphin Merger Sub 2, Inc. and as successor by merger with Diamond) ("NODI"), and each of its existing restricted subsidiaries (other than the Issuers) and by certain of NODI's future restricted subsidiaries. The indenture governing the Diamond Second Lien Notes contains covenants that, among other things, restrict NODI's ability and the ability of certain of its subsidiaries to: (i) incur additional debt and issue certain preferred stock; (ii) incur or create liens; (iii) make certain dividends, distributions, investments, and other restricted payments; (iv) sell or otherwise dispose of certain assets; (v) engage in certain transactions with affiliates; and (vi) merge, consolidate, amalgamate, or sell, transfer, lease, or otherwise dispose of all or substantially all of the assets of NODI and such subsidiaries. A failure to comply with the covenants, ratios, or tests in the indenture, if not cured or waived, could result in the outstanding principal amount, together with accrued and unpaid interest and fees, becoming immediately due and payable and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

As part of our business strategy we have pursued and completed, and may continue to pursue, mergers, acquisitions, dispositions of businesses or assets, or other strategic transactions that we believe will enable us to strengthen or broaden our business. Mergers, acquisitions, dispositions, and other strategic transactions involve various risks, including, among other things, (i) difficulties relating to integrating or disposing of a business, including changes to our employee workforce and unanticipated changes in customer, vendor, and other third-party relationships, (ii) failure to integrate operations and internal controls, including those related to financial reporting, disclosure, and cyber security and data protection, (iii) diversion of management's attention from day-to-day operations, (iv) failure to realize the anticipated benefits of such transactions, such as cost savings and revenue enhancements, (v) potentially substantial transaction costs, (vi) failure to identify significant issues at the target during the due diligence process, which could result in financial or legal exposure, and (vii) potential impairment resulting from the overpayment for an acquisition. Future mergers or acquisitions may require us to obtain additional equity or debt financing, which may not be available on attractive terms. Moreover, to the extent a transaction financed by non-equity consideration results in goodwill, it will reduce our tangible net worth, which might have an adverse effect on credit availability.

Our business is affected by public policy and laws and regulations relating to the energy industry in the geographic areas where we do or seek to operate or otherwise have a presence, including laws and regulations relating to the environment (including climate change and GHG emissions and regulations that for economic, sustainability, or other reasons curtail or encumber our ability to operate competitively or negatively impact exploration, development, and production of oil and gas). We may be required to make significant capital expenditures to comply with governmental laws and regulations. Governments in some countries are increasingly active in regulating and controlling the ownership of concessions, the exploration for oil and gas, and other aspects of the oil and gas industries. Heightened attention to the issue of climate change and the effect of GHGs, sustainability, and long-term changes in the energy mix in the jurisdictions where we operate has led to, and may result in, additional environmental laws or regulations that may unfavorably impact our business, or that of our suppliers and our customers. In addition, it has resulted in an increased possibility of litigation or investigations brought by public and private entities against oil and gas companies in connection with their GHG emissions. However, it is not possible at this time to predict the timing and effect of climate related laws and regulations, the adoption of additional GHG legislation, regulations or other measures at the international, federal, state, or local levels. The modification of existing laws or regulations or the adoption of new laws or regulations that curtail or encumber our ability to operate competitively or negatively impact exploration, development, and production of oil and gas could materially and adversely affect our business by limiting drilling opportunities, increasing our cost of doing business, discouraging our customers from drilling for hydrocarbons, disrupting revenue through permitting or similar delays, or subjecting us to liability. In the United States, the issuance of federal leases or other similar initiatives have periodically been the subject of efforts to reform federal leasing practices and may result in the development of additional restrictions on offshore drilling, limitations on the availability of offshore leases, or restrictions on the ability to obtain required permits, which could have a material adverse impact on our operations by reducing drilling opportunities and the demand for our services. There have been various recent legal developments in the UK offshore sector, including the extension of the energy profits levy on our customer base, increased environmental scrutiny of development plans and the prohibition of new exploration licenses. These developments have reduced oil and gas exploration and development activities in the UK North Sea, which, in turn, could reduce the demand for our services. In addition, efforts have been made and continue to be made in the international community toward the adoption or enhancement of international treaties or protocols related to protecting the environment, reducing climate change, reducing the use of hydrocarbon-based fuel, and encouraging the implementation of GHG emission pledges. Fuel conservation measures, alternative fuel requirements and increasing consumer demand for alternatives to oil and gas could reduce demand for oil and gas. These measures may result in a reduced global reliance on and future demand for oil and gas, which could have a material impact on our business. New or amended legislation and regulatory programs to reduce GHG emissions, changes in their interpretation or application, or increased reporting obligations, could increase our cost of doing business, discourage our customers from drilling for hydrocarbons, or otherwise have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Our operations are subject to various laws and regulations in countries in which we operate, including laws and regulations relating to: ?the environment and the health and safety of personnel;?the importing, exporting, equipping, and operation of drilling rigs;?finance and currency exchange controls;?oil and gas exploration and development;?taxation of local and offshore earnings and earnings of expatriate personnel; and ?use and compensation of local employees, contractors, and suppliers, and involvement of foreign contractors. Public and governmental scrutiny of the energy industry has resulted in increased regulations being proposed and often implemented. In addition, existing regulations might be revised or reinterpreted, new laws, regulations, and permitting requirements might be adopted or become applicable to us, our rigs, our customers, our vendors, or our service providers, and future changes in laws and regulations could significantly increase our costs and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. In addition, we may be required to post additional surety bonds to secure performance, tax, customs, and other obligations relating to our rigs in jurisdictions where bonding requirements are already in effect and in other jurisdictions where we may operate in the future. These requirements would increase the cost of operating in these countries, which could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. From time to time, new rules, regulations, and requirements regarding oil and gas development have been proposed and implemented by BOEM, BSEE, or the United States Congress, as well as other jurisdictions outside the United States, that could materially limit or prohibit, and increase the cost of, offshore drilling. For example, following a years' long rule making process, both BSEE and BOEM updated and expanded their respective offshore decommissioning financial assurance and bonding requirements. The updated requirements, which were finalized by BSEE in 2023 and BOEM in 2024, are stricter than previous requirements and may increase the costs of operating on the Outer Continental Shelf. BOEM and BSEE could issue new rules relating to well control equipment and operational requirements that fall under their authority in the future. Future actions taken by the United States to limit the availability of new oil and gas leases on the Outer Continental Shelf, or delays imposed by or resulting from compliance with permits, laws, regulations, or litigation would adversely impact the offshore oil and gas industry and impact demand for our services. We are also subject to increasing regulatory requirements and scrutiny in certain jurisdictions and other countries, including the North Sea. New rules, regulations, and requirements, including the adoption of new safety requirements and policies relating to the approval of drilling permits, restrictions on oil and gas development and production activities in the US Gulf and elsewhere, implementation of safety and environmental management systems, mandatory third-party compliance audits, and the promulgation of numerous Notices to Lessees or similar new regulatory requirements outside of the United States, may impact our operations by causing increased costs, delays, and operational restrictions. If new regulations, policies, operating procedures, and the possibility of increased legal liability resulting from the adoption or amendment of rules and regulations applicable to our operations in the United States or other jurisdictions are viewed by our current or future customers as a significant impairment to expected profitability on projects, then they could discontinue or curtail their offshore operations in the impacted region, thereby, adversely affecting our operations by limiting drilling opportunities or resulting in materially increased costs.

Tax returns that we file and/or tax payments that we make will be subject to review and examination. If any tax authority successfully challenges our operational structure, intercompany pricing policies, the taxable presence of our subsidiaries in certain countries, or other material tax positions, if the terms of certain tax treaties are interpreted in a manner that is adverse to our structure, or if we lose a material tax dispute in any country, our effective tax rate on our worldwide earnings, income tax expense, and/or operating expense could increase substantially and result in a material adverse effect on our financial condition. In addition, Noble may have exposures with respect to the tax audits and tax disputes of certain third parties which were under a joint taxation contribution arrangement with certain subsidiaries that Noble acquired in the business combination (the "Business Combination") with Maersk Drilling (as defined below).

Our business, financial condition, results of operations, access to capital markets, and borrowing costs may be adversely affected by a major natural disaster or catastrophic event, including civil unrest, geopolitical instability, war, terrorist attacks, pandemics, significantly altered weather conditions, or other (actual or threatened) public health emergencies such as the COVID-19 outbreak, or other events beyond our control, and measures taken in response thereto. Acts of terrorism and social unrest, brought about by world political events or otherwise, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Middle East conflicts, and the Venezuela conflicts, and their respective regional and global ramifications, have caused instability in the world's financial and insurance markets in the past and may occur in the future. Such acts could be directed against companies such as ours. In addition, acts of terrorism, piracy, and social unrest could lead to increased volatility in prices for crude oil and natural gas and could affect the markets for drilling services. Insurance premiums could increase and coverage may be unavailable in the future. Our drilling contracts do not generally provide indemnification against loss of capital assets or loss of revenues resulting from acts of terrorism, piracy, or political or social unrest. We have limited insurance for our assets providing coverage for physical damage losses resulting from risks, such as terrorist acts, piracy, vandalism, sabotage, civil unrest, expropriation, and acts of war, and we do not carry insurance for loss of revenues resulting from such risks. Public health emergencies have created and may in the future create, significant volatility and uncertainty and economic and financial market disruption. Governmental authorities implemented, and may implement in the future, numerous measures attempting to contain and mitigate the effects of pandemics and outbreaks, including travel bans and restrictions, quarantines, shelter in place orders, and shutdowns. Due to travel restrictions and mandatory quarantine measures, we experienced, and may in the future experience again, increased difficulties, delays, and expenses in moving our personnel to and from our operating locations. We may be unable to pass these increased expenses to our customers. Further, we have previously, and may in the future have to, temporarily shut down operations of one or more of our rigs if there is a pandemic, outbreak, or other public health emergency or vacancies of essential positions due to related infections, which could have a material negative impact on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Additionally, disruptions to the ability of our suppliers, manufacturers, and service providers to supply labor, parts, equipment, or services in the jurisdictions in which we operate, whether as a result of government actions, labor shortages, travel restrictions, the inability to source labor, parts, or equipment from affected locations, or other effects related to pandemics, outbreaks, or other public health emergencies, have increased our operating costs and the risk of rig downtime, and negatively impacted our ability to meet commitments to customers and may do so in the future. Additionally, many scientists have concluded that increasing concentrations of GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere and climate change may produce significant physical effects on weather conditions, such as increased frequency and severity of droughts, storms, floods, and other climatic events. If any such effects were to occur, they could adversely affect or delay demand for the oil or natural gas produced or cause us to incur significant costs in preparing for or responding to the effects of climatic events themselves. Potential adverse effects could include disruption of our and our customers' operations, including, for example, damages to our facilities from winds or floods, increases in our costs of operation, or reductions in the efficiency of our operations, impacts on our personnel, supply chain, or distribution chain, as well as potentially increased costs for insurance coverages in the aftermath of such effects. Any of these events could have an adverse effect on our assets and operations.

We may experience currency exchange losses when revenues are received or expenses are paid in nonconvertible currencies, when we do not hedge an exposure to a foreign currency, when the result of a hedge is a loss or if any counterparty to our hedge were to experience financial difficulties. We may also incur losses as a result of an inability to collect revenues due to a shortage of convertible currency available to the country of operation, controls over currency exchange or controls over the repatriation of income or capital.

Any concentration of customers increases the risks associated with any possible termination or nonperformance of drilling contracts, failure to renew contracts or award new contracts, or reduction of their drilling programs. In addition, the concentration of operations within a geographic area increases the impact of terrorism, piracy, or political or social unrest, changes in local laws and regulations, as well as severe weather events, should they occur within an area of concentration. As of December 31, 2025, ExxonMobil, Shell plc, BP, and TotalEnergies represented approximately 23.7%, 19.5%, 16.2%, and 12.6% of our contract backlog, respectively, and operations within the US Gulf, Guyana, Suriname, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 35.3%, 23.7%, 12.9%, and 11.4% of our contract backlog, respectively. ExxonMobil, BP, and Petrobras accounted for approximately 19.7%, 13.2%, and 12.5% respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, and operations in the US Gulf, Guyana, and the North Sea accounted for approximately 27.1%, 19.7%, and 16.9%, respectively, of our consolidated operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025. This concentration of customers increases the risks associated with any possible termination or nonperformance of contracts in addition to our exposure to credit risk. If any of these customers were to terminate or fail to perform their obligations under their contracts and we were not able to find other customers for the affected drilling units promptly, our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected. If we were forced to cease drilling operations in any of these regions for any reason and we were not able to redeploy to other regions promptly, our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.