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MBIA Inc (MBI)
NYSE:MBI
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MBIA
(NYSE:MBI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(3.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—persistent losses and a highly stressed balance sheet with negative equity—partly offset by improved cash flow. The earnings call adds support due to clear year-over-year operating/capital improvement and ongoing de-risking, but unresolved PREPA exposure and negative book value remain key overhangs. Technicals are neutral-to-soft and valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Positive cash flow recovery
A return to positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicates the company can begin internally funding operations and some obligations without reliance on new external capital. This durable improvement reduces near-term refinancing pressure, supports ongoing portfolio runoff and preserves optionality for capital actions.
National statutory profitability & capital
The return to statutory profitability and a larger claims-paying cushion at National strengthens the core insurance franchise that underpins MBIA's ability to underwrite and pay claims. Improved capital and lower leverage at this operating unit sustainably reduces parent support needs and improves dividend capacity to the holding company.
Adjusted earnings turnaround
A meaningful swing to adjusted profitability signals that operating performance and underwriting/investment dynamics have stabilized after prior write-downs. Sustained adjusted earnings can rebuild statutory and corporate capital over time, enabling deleveraging and potential strategic choices like limited capital returns or targeted reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Negative book value per share
Persistently negative book value signals that cumulative losses and capital depletion are material and structural. Negative equity undermines market and creditor confidence, constrains access to capital markets, and limits the company's ability to pursue growth or return capital without corrective capital actions or significant recovery in asset values.
Unresolved PREPA legal overhang
A large, legally contingent exposure tied to PREPA creates multi‑quarter uncertainty over recoveries and capital impact. Until legal clarity is achieved, this legacy claim can materially impair capital rebuild efforts, restrict dividend policy, and leave the company exposed to downside events despite operational improvements.
Highly stressed balance sheet
Deeply negative equity and high absolute debt relative to assets create structural leverage and solvency sensitivity. This weak balance sheet limits strategic flexibility, elevates refinancing and regulatory risks, and means recoveries or continued runoff must be sustained to restore long‑term financial health.
MBIA (MBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$291.95M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)337.94K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth67.72%
CountryUS
Employees57
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.24
Shares Outstanding50,511,150
10 Day Avg. Volume273,402
30 Day Avg. Volume337,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.16
Price to Sales (P/S)4.41
P/FCF Ratio9.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue38.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit255.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda191.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside25.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$22.00M
MBIA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMBIA Inc. provides financial guarantee insurance services to public finance markets. It operates through United States (U.S.) Public Finance Insurance, and International and Structured Finance Insurance segments. The company issues financial guarantees for municipal bonds, including tax-exempt and taxable indebtedness of the U.S. political subdivisions and territories, as well as utilities, airports, health care institutions, higher educational facilities, student loan issuers, housing authorities, and other similar agencies and obligations issued by private entities. It also insures the non-U.S. public finance and global structured finance, including asset-backed obligations; and sovereign-related and sub-sovereign bonds, utilities, and privately issued bonds used for the financing of projects that include toll roads, bridges, airports, public transportation facilities, and other types of infrastructure projects, as well as offers third-party reinsurance services. MBIA Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyMBIA’s earnings have historically been driven by its financial guarantee insurance business model. The company generates revenue primarily from (1) premiums/insurance revenue earned for providing guarantees on debt obligations (often collected upfront and then recognized over the life of the insured bonds), and (2) investment income on its investment portfolio, which is supported by insurance-related assets and capital. Results can also be materially affected by (3) loss and loss adjustment expenses (claims paid on insured obligations) net of recoveries, and (4) changes in the valuation of certain assets and liabilities (including structured exposures) and realized gains/losses from investments, depending on accounting treatment. Cash flows and profitability are therefore influenced by the size and seasoning of the insured portfolio, credit performance of insured issuers, claim payments and recoveries (including litigation-related recoveries where applicable), interest rate and market conditions affecting investment income, and capital management at the holding company and insurance subsidiary levels. Specific current material partnerships contributing to earnings: null.
MBIA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
MBIA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a materially improved operating and capital performance versus FY2024: GAAP losses narrowed substantially, adjusted results returned to profitability, National returned to statutory profitability and increased statutory capital, and portfolio runoff reduced leverage. However, material legacy issues persist — most notably an unresolved PREPA exposure ($425M remaining) tied to legal uncertainty, negative consolidated book value per share, FX losses, and constrained surplus at MBIA Insurance Corporation. Overall, results show meaningful progress but legacy legal and balance‑sheet constraints remain important risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Full‑Year GAAP Loss Improvement
Consolidated GAAP net loss improved from $447 million in FY2024 to $177 million in FY2025, a $270 million (≈60%) reduction in the annual GAAP loss.
Adjusted Net Income Turnaround
Company reported adjusted net income of $23 million (or $0.46 per share) for FY2025 versus an adjusted net loss of $184 million (or -$3.90 per share) in FY2024 — a positive swing of $207 million and a return to adjusted profitability.
National: Return to Statutory Profitability and Stronger Capital
National reported statutory net income of $88 million for FY2025 versus a statutory net loss of $133 million in FY2024. National statutory capital rose to $937 million (up $25 million year‑over‑year) and claims‑paying resources totaled $1.4 billion as of 12/31/2025.
Portfolio Runoff and Leverage Improvement at National
National's insured gross par outstanding declined by approximately $3 billion from year‑end 2024 to about $22 billion at year‑end 2025. Gross par to statutory capital leverage improved to 24:1 from 28:1 at year‑end 2024 (leverage reduction of ~14% relative to prior level).
Cash Dividend Received and Corporate Liquidity
National declared and paid an as‑of‑right dividend of $63 million to MBIA Inc. Corporate segment held approximately $357 million of unencumbered cash and liquid assets as of 12/31/2025 (only modestly down from $380 million at 12/31/2024).
Improvement at MBIA Insurance Corporation (Year over Year)
MBIA Insurance Corporation's full‑year statutory net loss narrowed to $26 million in FY2025 from $64 million in FY2024. Insured gross par outstanding declined about 13% year‑over‑year to approximately $2 billion as of 12/31/2025, reflecting continued runoff.
Negative Updates
MBIA Inc. Negative Book Value Per Share
MBIA Inc.'s book value per share decreased $3.28 to a negative $44.27 per share as of 12/31/2025; included in that is a negative $53.35 per share of MBIA Insurance Corporation's book value.
Unresolved PREPA Exposure and Legal Uncertainty
PREPA remains the primary outstanding risk: while a custodial receipt sale produced a benefit and reduced exposure, $425 million of PREPA gross par remains outstanding and substantive resolution is stalled pending resolution of legal issues surrounding the Financial Oversight and Management Board.
MBIA Insurance Corporation Capital and Specific Loss Drivers
MBIA Insurance Corporation statutory capital declined to $79 million from $88 million at year‑end 2024 (down $9 million, ≈10%). FY2025 results included a loss reclassified from surplus related to the dissolution of its Mexican subsidiary and higher losses and LAE versus 2024 in some areas.
Foreign Exchange Losses and Lower Investment Income
The company recorded higher foreign exchange losses (attributed to a weaker dollar) and lower net investment income in 2025, which partially offset other favorable items and reduced Corporate segment revenues (primarily lower FX gains).
Corporate Liquidity Slightly Pressured by Debt Maturity
Unencumbered cash and liquid assets at MBIA Inc. fell to $357 million from $380 million (a decline of ~$23 million, ≈6%), driven in part by repayment of 7% debt that matured in December 2025 and ongoing operating expenses.
Company Guidance
Management gave limited forward guidance: the priority remains resolving National’s PREPA exposure, but they said substantive progress is unlikely until legal issues involving members of the Financial Oversight and Management Board are resolved; they are continuously evaluating a potential special dividend (no commitment or timetable; regulator approval required) and said the likelihood/size would increase as the portfolio runs off and PREPA exposure declines. Key metrics cited on the call: National gross par outstanding fell by ~$3.0 billion to about $22 billion (leverage of 24:1, down from 28:1), National statutory capital was $937 million (up $25 million Y/Y) with claims‑paying resources of $1.4 billion, National statutory net income was $5 million in Q4 and $88 million for FY‑2025 (vs statutory losses of $10M and $133M in 2024), MBIA Insurance Corporation statutory capital was $79 million (down from $88M) with claims‑paying resources of $317 million and insured gross par ≈ $2 billion (down ~13% Y/Y), MBIA Inc. corporate assets were ≈ $653 million with $357 million of unencumbered cash/liquid assets (vs $380M at 12/31/2024) and ~$183 million pledged to GIA holders, National paid a $63 million as‑of‑right dividend to MBIA Inc., consolidated GAAP net loss was $51 million (Q4‑2025, −$1.01/sh) and $177 million (FY‑2025, −$3.58/sh) versus $447 million (FY‑2024, −$9.43/sh), adjusted results were $23 million (adjusted net income, FY‑2025, $0.46/sh) versus an adjusted net loss of $184 million in FY‑2024 (Q4 adjusted net loss was −$12M, −$0.24/sh), and MBIA Inc. book value per share was −$44.27 as of 12/31/2025 (down $3.28), including a −$53.35 per‑share component for MBIA Insurance Corporation.MBIA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall fundamentals remain weak. The income statement shows persistent GAAP losses and extremely negative net margins, and the balance sheet is highly stressed with deeply negative equity and high debt relative to assets. A key offset is improved cash flow, with operating/free cash flow turning positive in 2025, suggesting some near-term stabilization despite ongoing structural pressure.Income Statement
Profitability remains very weak, with net losses in every annual period shown and deeply negative net margins (2025: -221%, 2024: -1,057%), indicating earnings are not supported by the revenue base. Revenue is volatile—down ~10% in 2025 after growth in 2024—while operating results are consistently negative (EBIT/EBITDA losses). A modest bright spot is the sharp improvement versus the extreme 2023 loss intensity, but the company is still far from sustainable profitability.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is highly stressed: stockholders’ equity is negative across recent years (2025: -$2.24B; 2024: -$2.09B), which materially weakens financial flexibility and raises risk around leverage and solvency perception. Total debt remains very high (roughly $2.8B–$3.6B over the period) relative to the asset base (2025 assets: ~$2.01B). While debt has come down from 2024 to 2025, the persistent negative equity is a major overhang.9
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow is mixed but improved recently: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive in 2025 (+$38M) after sizable cash burn in 2022–2024. However, cash generation is inconsistent year-to-year (e.g., strong positive in 2021, negative in multiple surrounding years), and free cash flow declined in 2025 versus 2024 on a growth basis provided. Overall, cash flow shows some recovery momentum but lacks stability and scale relative to losses and leverage.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 80.00M | 42.00M | 7.00M | 154.00M | 159.00M |
| Gross Profit | 12.00M | -146.00M | -175.00M | 108.00M | -197.00M |
| EBITDA | 16.00M | -232.00M | -273.00M | 32.00M | -264.00M |
| Net Income | -177.00M | -444.00M | -487.00M | -203.00M | -445.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 2.17B | 2.61B | 3.38B | 4.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.11B | 1.50B | 107.00M | 2.23B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 2.84B | 3.22B | 3.16B | 3.10B | 3.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.24B | 4.24B | 4.25B | 4.25B | 5.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | -2.24B | -2.09B | -1.66B | -882.00M | -313.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 510.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 38.00M | -176.00M | -195.00M | -418.00M | 511.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 25.00M | 287.00M | 767.00M | 623.00M | -61.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -79.00M | -132.00M | -542.00M | -285.00M | -457.00M |
MBIA Technical Analysis
Negative
5.78
Price Trends
6.44
Negative
6.87
Negative
6.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Positive
35.99
Neutral
11.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.24, below the 50-day MA of 6.44, and below the 200-day MA of 6.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MBI.
MBIA Risk Analysis
MBIA disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MBIA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MBIA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $396.64M | 13.39 | 13.19% | 4.20% | 13.47% | 26.15% | |
70 Outperform | $4.42B | 8.52 | 12.59% | 2.78% | -3.68% | 3.65% | |
69 Neutral | $3.63B | 8.74 | 8.92% | 1.50% | 7.56% | -38.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $1.14B | 70.16 | 5.39% | ― | 12.50% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $291.95M | -1.73 | ― | ― | ― | 67.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
MBI
MBIA
5.78
0.32
5.86%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
80.81
-3.19
-3.79%
ITIC
Investors Title Company
210.13
-18.10
-7.93%
RDN
Radian Group
32.47
1.38
4.46%
TRUP
Trupanion
26.21
-10.79
-29.16%
MBIA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MBIA Enhances Transparency With New 2025 Financial Disclosures
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, MBIA announced it would post on its website fourth-quarter 2025 Quarterly Operating Supplements and Statutory Statements, as well as 2025 Annual Statements for MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. The company will also publish detailed insured portfolio data as of December 31, 2025, and update investor FAQs around February 27, 2026, enhancing transparency for investors and other stakeholders by consolidating key financial and portfolio information online.
The most recent analyst rating on (MBI) stock is a Sell with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MBIA stock, see the MBI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.