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Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD)
NASDAQ:LUCD
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Lucid Diagnostics
(NASDAQ:LUCD)
60Neutral
Positive Factors
Commercial Agreements
LUCD has signed its first agreement to pay for EsoGuard under state biomarker legislation with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Rhode Island.
Price Target Increase
Analysts are increasing top-line estimates, generating higher cash flows in the DCF model, and thereby raising the 12-month price target to $5.00 from $4.00.
Regulatory Milestone
The company has reached a milestone in its regulatory pathway by submitting its clinical data package for Medicare coverage, which is expected to significantly increase adoption.
Negative Factors
Operating Expenses
LUCD's operating expenses were modestly above the analyst's estimate.
Revenue Challenges
LUCD missed consensus revenue despite having grown test volume significantly as collections lagged test volume.
Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$129.42M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)837.70K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth79.00%
EPS Growth15.03%
CountryUS
Employees72
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength65
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.07
Shares Outstanding86,856,415
10 Day Avg. Volume960,941
30 Day Avg. Volume837,704
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)28.19
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-2.20
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside111.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
Lucid Diagnostics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLucid Diagnostics (LUCD) is a medical technology company operating in the healthcare sector, with a focus on the early detection of esophageal precancer and cancer. The company's core product is the EsoGuard diagnostic test, which is designed to detect Barrett's Esophagus, a condition that can lead to esophageal cancer. Lucid Diagnostics aims to provide innovative solutions for gastroenterologists and patients to improve early diagnosis and treatment outcomes.
How the Company Makes MoneyLucid Diagnostics makes money primarily through the commercialization of its EsoGuard diagnostic test. The company's revenue model is based on the sale and use of this test by healthcare providers and laboratories. Lucid Diagnostics generates revenue by offering EsoGuard as a service to detect esophageal precancer and cancer, billing insurance companies and healthcare providers for its usage. The company's earnings are also influenced by its strategic partnerships with laboratories and healthcare networks that facilitate the distribution and adoption of the EsoGuard test. Additionally, Lucid Diagnostics may engage in research collaborations and licensing agreements that contribute to its revenue stream.
Lucid Diagnostics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Lucid Diagnostics is experiencing rapid revenue growth but is struggling with profitability, cash flow, and leverage. The company faces high operating losses and negative cash flows, indicating significant financial instability. While there are some improvements in equity, substantial risks remain due to reliance on debt and negative margins.Income Statement
Lucid Diagnostics has shown significant revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 with a revenue growth rate of 178883%. However, the company is still experiencing negative gross profit and net income, leading to negative margins. The net profit margin and EBIT margin are severely negative, indicating substantial losses relative to revenue. The financials reflect a challenging profitability position.20
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has seen improvement due to rising stockholders' equity but remains concerning. The equity ratio is low, indicating heavy reliance on liabilities. The company's assets are largely financed through debt and liabilities, posing a risk amidst negative equity in previous years. However, the current positive equity marks a potential recovery trajectory.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Lucid Diagnostics has a negative free cash flow, indicating significant cash outflow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting operational challenges. The company heavily relies on financing activities to manage cash flow, which is unsustainable in the long term. Improvement in cash generation from operations is crucial.25
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.35B | 2.43M | 377.00K | 500.00K | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | ||||
| -2.75B | -6.05M | -3.24M | -85.00K | 0.00 |
| EBIT | ||||
| -46.05B | -48.48M | -56.17M | -27.42M | -8.28M |
| EBITDA | ||||
| -46.05B | -49.75M | -54.23M | -27.41M | 482.00 |
| Net Income Common Stockholders | ||||
| -45.53M | -52.67M | -56.17M | -28.74M | -8.28M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 22.36B | 18.90M | 22.47M | 53.66M | 111.25K |
| Total Assets | ||||
| 30.71B | 27.27M | 32.51M | 59.00M | 2.19M |
| Total Debt | ||||
| 21.25B | 15.26M | 2.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Debt | ||||
| -1.10B | -3.64M | -20.48M | -53.66M | -111.25K |
| Total Liabilities | ||||
| 25.32B | 29.58M | 9.46M | 4.26M | 15.71M |
| Stockholders Equity | ||||
| 5.39B | -2.31M | 23.05M | 54.74M | -13.52M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -44.14B | -33.04M | -30.59M | -18.53M | -5.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | ||||
| -44.14B | -32.82M | -29.68M | -17.67M | -5.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | ||||
| -646.00M | -221.00K | -4.11M | -862.00K | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | ||||
| 48.25B | 29.46M | 2.61M | 72.08M | 5.58M |
Lucid Diagnostics Technical Analysis
Positive
1.42
Price Trends
1.28
Positive
1.08
Positive
0.95
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
50.00
Neutral
45.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUCD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.43, above the 50-day MA of 1.28, and above the 200-day MA of 0.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LUCD.
Lucid Diagnostics Risk Analysis
Lucid Diagnostics disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lucid Diagnostics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lucid Diagnostics Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (48)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $129.42M | ― | -2956.43% | ― | 79.00% | 15.03% | |
50 Neutral | $126.55M | ― | -124.10% | ― | 9.22% | 60.01% | |
48 Neutral | $6.86B | 1.11 | -50.22% | 2.47% | 16.71% | 1.53% | |
44 Neutral | $115.19M | ― | -85.37% | ― | ― | -24.18% | |
33 Underperform | $134.80M | ― | 36.83% | ― | ― | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
LUCD
Lucid Diagnostics
1.42
0.53
59.55%
NKTR
Nektar Therapeutics
0.64
-0.31
-32.63%
LXEO
Lexeo Therapeutics, Inc.
3.13
-11.47
-78.56%
BIOA
BioAge Labs, Inc.
3.58
-17.42
-82.95%
Lucid Diagnostics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 24, 2025 | % Change Since: -6.58% | Next Earnings Date: May 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong positive outlook with significant advancements in test volume, insurance coverage, and clinical validation. The company's financial position is strong, bolstered by recent financing. However, challenges remain in revenue recognition and the reimbursement environment, which are expected to improve with strategic efforts underway.Highlights
Record Quarterly Test Volume
Lucid Diagnostics achieved a record quarterly test volume with over 4,000 tests, surpassing their target of 2,500 to 3,000 tests per quarter.
First Commercial Insurance Coverage for EsoGuard
Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York established a positive commercial insurance coverage policy for EsoGuard, setting an important precedent for future engagements with commercial payers.
Expansion of Clinical Evidence Base
Lucid Diagnostics had two clinical utility studies accepted for peer-reviewed publication, bringing the total to five, establishing a strong chain of evidence for the clinical utility of EsoGuard.
Strong Financial Position
Lucid Diagnostics ended the year with $22.4 million in cash, and after a $15 million RDO financing, entered the new year with a pro forma cash of about $37 million.
NIH Grant Awarded for Expanded Indication
Lucid Diagnostics received an $8 million NIH grant to study EsoGuard for an expanded indication to include patients without heartburn, potentially increasing the total addressable market.
Positive NCCN Guidelines Update
The NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines now include a section on screening for esophageal precancer, aligning with existing guidelines from the Gastroenterology Association, which supports EsoGuard.
Lowlights
Low Revenue Recognition
Despite the high test volume, revenue recognition was limited to $1.2 million due to the early stages of the reimbursement process, with revenue recognized only upon collection.
Challenging Reimbursement Environment
Lucid Diagnostics faces challenges with traditional reimbursement claims, resulting in elongated collection times and a significant portion of claims being denied or requiring further authorization.
Company Guidance
During the Lucid Diagnostics Fourth Quarter 2024 Business Update Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic developments were highlighted. The company reported $1.2 million in revenue for the fourth quarter, with a record quarterly test volume of over 4,000 EsoGuard tests, surpassing their target of 2,500 to 3,000 tests per quarter. Lucid Diagnostics achieved a significant milestone by securing positive commercial insurance coverage from Highmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York for EsoGuard, marking their first such coverage policy. They also noted that the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) Clinical Practice Guidelines now include non-endoscopic biomarker testing as an acceptable alternative to endoscopy for esophageal precancer screening. Additionally, Lucid's recent strategic accomplishments included expanding their clinical evidence base with the publication of several clinical utility studies and securing an $8 million NIH grant to study an expanded indication for EsoGuard. Financially, the company ended the year with $22.4 million in cash, bolstered by a recent $15 million registered direct offering, providing a pro forma cash position of approximately $37 million as they enter the new year. Lucid is focused on ramping up revenue through expanded sales channels, including direct contracting with employers and a concierge medicine cash-pay program, with expectations for these initiatives to impact revenue in the second half of 2025.Lucid Diagnostics Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Lucid Diagnostics Raises $15.3 Million in Stock Offering
Positive
Mar 5, 2025
On March 5, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics Inc. announced the closing of its registered direct offering, raising approximately $15.3 million through the sale of 13,939,331 shares of common stock at $1.10 per share. The net proceeds, estimated at $14.5 million after expenses, will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and supporting its operations in the cancer prevention diagnostics industry.
Private Placements and Financing
Lucid Diagnostics Announces $15.3 Million Direct Offering
Positive
Mar 4, 2025
On March 4, 2025, Lucid Diagnostics announced a $15.3 million registered direct offering by entering into subscription agreements with accredited investors to sell shares of common stock. The proceeds will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, with Canaccord Genuity acting as the sole placement agent. This move is expected to bolster Lucid’s financial position and support its operations in the cancer prevention diagnostics industry.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.