Kodiak AI (KDK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.72B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 919.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.19
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -969.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 271
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 181,207,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,422,319
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 919,224
• PEG Ratio: -0.92
• Price to Book (P/B): -5.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 96.47
• P/FCF Ratio: -26.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 162.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 178.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.68
• 1Y Price Target: $14.67
• Price Target Upside: 54.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(0.11% Upside)

The score is primarily held down by deteriorating financial performance (sharp revenue decline, widening losses, and significant ongoing cash burn with a limited equity cushion). Technicals are supportive in the near term (price above major moving averages, positive MACD) but appear overextended (RSI/Stoch elevated). Earnings call progress on operations and scaling is constructive, yet guidance still points to substantial negative free cash flow and continuing losses.

Positive Factors

Operational scale-up (fleet expansion)

Doubling deployed trucks demonstrates tangible commercial traction in customer environments and validates the DaaS model. Sustained fleet growth supports network effects, lowers unit economics over time, and is a prerequisite to scaling recurring subscription/licensing revenue and building long-term customer relationships.

Growing paid operational hours and data

Rapid growth in paid driverless hours accelerates data collection that improves ML models and product performance. Rich operational data is a durable competitive asset that enhances safety, reduces deployment costs, and increases switching costs for customers as models and validation mature.

Strategic OEM partnerships and safety recognition

Integration with tier‑1 suppliers and ISO‑26262 compliant components strengthens technical credibility and supply relationships, reducing integration risk. Independent safety recognition complements partnerships, supporting regulatory acceptance and customer confidence—key structural enablers for long‑term commercialization.

Negative Factors

Heavy cash burn and negative free cash flow

Sustained large negative operating and free cash flow creates persistent funding needs and increases refinancing risk. Over months, continued cash burn forces dilution, debt reliance, or operational retrenchment, constraining ability to invest in product and scale while meeting contractual obligations.

Sharp revenue decline and deep losses

A large revenue drop alongside deeply negative margins signals weak scale economics and fragile unit economics. Without sustained revenue recovery and margin improvement, the business cannot absorb fixed R&D and ops costs, limiting viability of long‑term growth initiatives and competitive investment.

Limited equity cushion; reliance on secured venture debt

A small/previously negative equity base plus freshly secured term debt compresses financial flexibility. Collateralized borrowings and covenants can restrict strategic options, risk accelerations on covenant breaches, and expose intellectual property—heightening execution risk during scale‑up phases.

Kodiak AI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kodiak AI, Inc. develops a technology software. The Company offers AI-powered ground autonomy solutions for vehicles to navigate highways, surface streets, and off-road terrain through multi-sensor architecture transportation technology for trucking, defense, and industrial industries.

How the Company Makes Money

Kodiak AI generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model for its software products, allowing businesses to access its AI solutions on a recurring basis. Key revenue streams include licensing fees for software usage, premium support services, and custom analytics solutions tailored to specific client needs. Additionally, the company has formed strategic partnerships with industry leaders in logistics and transportation, enhancing its market reach and credibility, which in turn contributes to its earnings. These collaborations often involve co-development agreements and joint marketing initiatives, further solidifying Kodiak AI's position in the competitive landscape.

Kodiak AI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very weak fundamentals: TTM revenue fell sharply (~39%), losses widened with deeply negative margins (net margin ~-123%), and cash burn remains heavy (TTM OCF about -$105M; FCF about -$122M). Balance-sheet flexibility is limited by a small/previously negative equity base despite only moderate absolute debt.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined sharply (down ~39% vs. the prior period provided) and losses expanded materially, with deeply negative operating and net margins (net margin roughly -123%). While reported gross profit is high relative to revenue, operating costs overwhelmingly outweigh it, driving very large negative EBIT/EBITDA and net income. Overall, the income statement reflects weak scale and deteriorating profitability trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears mixed: total debt is moderate in absolute terms (~$40M), but equity has been volatile and in some annual periods was negative, which weakens the balance-sheet cushion and makes leverage ratios less meaningful. In TTM, equity is positive but very small relative to the business size, implying limited buffer against ongoing losses. Assets increased substantially in TTM versus the latest annual figure, but persistent losses and historically negative equity remain key balance-sheet risks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow and free cash flow are both meaningfully negative in TTM (approximately -$105M and -$122M). Although free cash flow improved versus the prior annual period (positive growth rate reported), the business is still burning significant cash, which increases funding/refinancing risk if losses persist. Free cash flow being closer to net loss is not enough to offset the overall cash burn profile.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.80M	14.93M	16.95M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	8.90M	14.93M	16.95M	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-431.86M	-59.89M	-47.41M	-35.67M	-30.45M	0.00
Net Income	-528.59M	-69.46M	-56.95M	49.31M	15.85M	―
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	177.84M	35.56M	46.29M	1.01B	417.42K	523.48K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	146.20M	16.71M	27.76M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	39.65M	41.73M	42.33M	233.24K	181.86K	147.38K
Total Liabilities	174.16M	286.40M	233.39M	61.15M	404.92K	512.32K
Stockholders Equity	3.68M	-250.84M	-187.10M	952.33M	12.50K	11.15K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-122.34M	-54.15M	-47.11M	-2.21M	-1.41M	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	-105.22M	-50.96M	-43.84M	-2.21M	-1.41M	0.00
Investing Cash Flow	-22.78M	-3.21M	17.28M	0.00	-1.00B	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	261.66M	43.13M	12.03M	1.50M	1.00B	0.00

Kodiak AI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.49
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.77, above the 50-day MA of 8.50, and below the 200-day MA of 10.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KDK.

Kodiak AI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Kodiak AI Corporate Events

Kodiak AI Secures New $30 Million Venture Loan

On December 31, 2025, Kodiak AI, Inc. and its subsidiary Kodiak Robotics, Inc. entered into a new senior secured venture loan and security agreement with Horizon Technology Finance Corporation for a $30 million term loan facility, using part of the proceeds to repay existing indebtedness to the same lender and allocating the remainder to working capital and general corporate needs. The facility, which carries interest at the prime rate plus 3.50% (with a 6.50% prime floor) and matures on January 1, 2030, provides an interest-only period from February 1, 2026 through July 1, 2028, after which the loan amortizes over 18 months, and is secured by substantially all of the borrowers’ assets, including intellectual property; it also includes customary covenants, prepayment penalties, fees totaling at least $1.5 million, and standard default provisions that could accelerate repayment and increase the interest rate, underscoring the company’s reliance on structured venture debt while terminating its prior loan agreement from September 28, 2022 with the same lender.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDK) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak AI stock, see the KDK Stock Forecast page.