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Kodiak AI
(NASDAQ:KDK)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(8.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is primarily held down by weak financial performance (negative gross profit, very large losses, and heavy cash burn relative to revenue), reinforced by bearish technical trends (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call adds some support via improved cash-flow outlook, strengthened liquidity runway, and operational momentum, but dilution and execution risks keep the overall score below average.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Sustained high sequential revenue growth signals improving commercial traction for Kodiak's Driver-as-a-Service and customer-owned deployments. Over 2–6 months this supports scaling unit economics, stronger customer validation, and increased leverage of fixed R&D and operations spend as revenues rise.
Negative Factors
Heavy Cash Burn
Persistent multi-hundred-million negative operating and free cash flows indicate the business cannot self-fund growth and requires ongoing external capital. Over 2–6 months this elevates dilution risk and constrains strategic optionality unless revenue conversion or cost structure shifts materially.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Momentum
Sustained high sequential revenue growth signals improving commercial traction for Kodiak's Driver-as-a-Service and customer-owned deployments. Over 2–6 months this supports scaling unit economics, stronger customer validation, and increased leverage of fixed R&D and operations spend as revenues rise.
Read all positive factors
Kodiak AI (KDK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$880.71M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-1768.27%
CountryUS
Employees342
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.36
Shares Outstanding200,618,160
10 Day Avg. Volume937,602
30 Day Avg. Volume1,278,526
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-16.64
Price to Sales (P/S)262.36
P/FCF Ratio-8.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.33Price Target Upside173.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.50M
Kodiak AI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kodiak AI, Inc. specializes in engineering sophisticated software solutions that deliver AI-powered ground autonomy. This technology enables various vehicles to navigate independently across diverse environments, encompassing highways, urban stree...
How the Company Makes Money
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Kodiak AI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum and meaningful progress across deployments, safety work, strategic partnerships (GDLS, Bosch, NVIDIA), regulatory approvals, and AI tooling adoption, supported by a $100M capital raise that extends liquidity into 2027. However, the company remains pre-profit with continued quarterly operating losses and negative free cash flow, a dilutive financing event, an ARM short of launch readiness (86%), and a platform transition that tempers near-term truck delivery growth. Highlights around rapid increases in driverless hours (+120%), loads (+24%), and revenue growth (+74% QoQ), combined with strengthened liquidity and multiple strategic partnerships, outweigh the near-term financial and execution risks.Positive Updates
Successful $100M Capital Raise and Strengthened Liquidity
Raised $100 million gross proceeds (net ≈ $95M) at $6.50 per share with warrants; pro forma cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities ≈ $185M (up from $90M at quarter end). Company states this extends liquidity into 2027.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Operating Losses and Cash Burn
GAAP operating loss was $37.9 million in Q1; non-GAAP operating loss (ex-stock comp) was $31.8 million. Q1 free cash flow negative $35M and FY2026 FCF still expected to be a negative $155M–$165M, indicating continued cash burn before breakeven.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful $100M Capital Raise and Strengthened Liquidity
Raised $100 million gross proceeds (net ≈ $95M) at $6.50 per share with warrants; pro forma cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities ≈ $185M (up from $90M at quarter end). Company states this extends liquidity into 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kodiak guided fleet and cash‑flow targets while reiterating operational pacing: it expects driverless trucks to grow from 28 at Q1 end to the mid‑thirties (exiting Q2 in the mid‑thirties), with H2 2026 deployments roughly matching H1 and an acceleration through 2027 (Atlas’s 100‑truck commitment expected complete in H1 2027). Financial guidance included Q2 free cash flow of negative $39M to negative $41M and an improved full‑year FY2026 free cash flow outlook of negative $155M to negative $165M; Q1 actuals were revenue $1.8M (+74% QoQ), GAAP operating loss $37.9M, non‑GAAP operating loss $31.8M, free cash flow negative $35M, and CapEx ≈ $5.5M. Liquidity guidance: Q1 cash and marketable securities $90M, plus a $100M gross ($95M net) financing for pro forma cash ≈ $185M, which management says extends runway into 2027; they also expect lower AV hardware costs over time and remain opportunistic on additional capital (S‑3 eligibility expected).Kodiak AI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.15M | 3.80M | 14.93M | 16.95M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -14.22M | -20.97M | 14.93M | 16.95M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -354.80M | -578.18M | -59.89M | -47.41M | -35.67M | -30.45M |
| Net Income | -304.65M | -585.52M | -69.46M | -56.95M | 49.31M | 15.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 194.38M | 159.41M | 35.56M | 46.29M | 1.01B | 417.42K |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 151.06M | 120.67M | 16.71M | 27.76M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 47.80M | 36.44M | 41.73M | 42.33M | 233.24K | 181.86K |
| Total Liabilities | 160.12M | 219.27M | 286.40M | 233.39M | 61.15M | 404.92K |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.27M | -59.87M | -250.84M | -187.10M | 952.33M | 12.50K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -187.48M | -116.47M | -54.15M | -47.11M | -2.21M | -1.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -155.99M | -94.44M | -50.96M | -43.84M | -2.21M | -1.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -139.80M | -91.43M | -3.21M | 17.28M | 0.00 | -1.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 326.70M | 219.93M | 43.13M | 12.03M | 1.50M | 1.00B |
Kodiak AI Technical Analysis
Neutral
4.15
Price Trends
5.17
Negative
6.61
Negative
7.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
48.86
Neutral
73.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.31, below the 50-day MA of 5.17, and below the 200-day MA of 7.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KDK.
Kodiak AI Risk Analysis
Kodiak AI disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kodiak AI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kodiak AI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
KDK
Kodiak AI
4.59
-6.79
-59.67%
DUOT
Duos Technologies Group
8.77
2.51
40.10%
MRT
Marti Technologies
1.80
-0.67
-27.13%
ENRD
Einride AB Sponsored ADR
5.63
-5.07
-47.38%
Kodiak AI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kodiak AI Enhances Executive Compensation and Equity Incentives
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Kodiak AI, Inc. implemented a series of changes to its executive compensation program following a review by an independent consultant and the board’s Compensation Committee. The committee raised CEO Don Burnette’s base...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kodiak AI Shareholders Confirm Directors and Audit Firm
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
Kodiak AI, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2026, where investors voted on board composition and the company’s audit oversight. Stockholders elected two Class I directors, Don Burnette and Kristin Sverchek, to se...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.