Kodiak AI (KDK)
NASDAQ:KDK
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Kodiak AI
(NASDAQ:KDK)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
â–¼(-16.56% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, deep losses, negative equity, and worsening cash burn). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below major moving averages. Earnings-call updates show meaningful operational progress and partner validation, but large guided cash burn and limited liquidity runway constrain the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Fleet expansion & commercial deployments
Sustained fleet growth and a large committed order signal durable commercial validation and on-road learning. Customer-owned deployments accelerate operational scale, recurring DaaS revenue potential, and real-world data collection that can improve safety, reduce per-trip costs, and strengthen competitive positioning over quarters.
Negative Factors
Severe income and balance-sheet deterioration
Sharp revenue contraction and multi-year negative equity indicate weakened operating leverage and capital structure stress. Persistent large losses reduce financial flexibility, increase probability of dilution or restructuring, and constrain the firm's ability to invest without external funding over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fleet expansion & commercial deployments
Sustained fleet growth and a large committed order signal durable commercial validation and on-road learning. Customer-owned deployments accelerate operational scale, recurring DaaS revenue potential, and real-world data collection that can improve safety, reduce per-trip costs, and strengthen competitive positioning over quarters.
Read all positive factors
Kodiak AI (KDK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)441.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.03
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-969.02%
CountryUS
Employees271
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.42
Shares Outstanding182,555,390
10 Day Avg. Volume439,599
30 Day Avg. Volume441,188
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-16.64
Price to Sales (P/S)262.36
P/FCF Ratio-8.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue368.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-66.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-12.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.25Price Target Upside108.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.79
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.71M
Kodiak AI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kodiak AI, Inc. develops a technology software. The Company offers AI-powered ground autonomy solutions for vehicles to navigate highways, surface streets, and off-road terrain through multi-sensor architecture transportation technology for trucki...
How the Company Makes Money
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Kodiak AI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed strong operational and technological progress — rapid fleet expansion, notable industry-first capabilities (triples, car trailers), meaningful revenue growth (Q4 +37% QoQ) and important partnerships (Bosch, Verizon, Roush, Marine Corps). At the same time, Kodiak remains an early-revenue, capital-intensive business with sustained operating losses, a projected large free cash flow burn in FY2026 (negative $160M–$170M), and liquidity only into Q4 2026 under current plans. Safety readiness is materially advanced (ARM at 84%) but not yet at the 100% threshold required for definitive long-haul launch, and meaningful cost reductions in AV hardware are still required to achieve profitability. Overall, operational momentum and strategic validation are clear, but substantial financial and execution risks remain until scale and hardware-cost improvements materialize.Positive Updates
Rapid fleet expansion and deployments
Finished 2025 with 20 customer-owned driverless Class 8 trucks (100% quarter-over-quarter growth), representing the largest customer-owned driverless trucking deployment in the world; expecting driverless trucks in the high-20s by Q1 FY2026 and committed to delivering the remaining 80 trucks from the 100-truck Atlas order over the next several quarters.
Negative Updates
Sustained operating losses
GAAP operating loss for Q4 was $39 million and non-GAAP operating loss (ex-stock-based compensation) was $30 million, reflecting continued investment in R&D and operations support as the company scales.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Rapid fleet expansion and deployments
Finished 2025 with 20 customer-owned driverless Class 8 trucks (100% quarter-over-quarter growth), representing the largest customer-owned driverless trucking deployment in the world; expecting driverless trucks in the high-20s by Q1 FY2026 and committed to delivering the remaining 80 trucks from the 100-truck Atlas order over the next several quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kodiak guided fiscal 2026 free cash flow of negative $160M to negative $170M and Q1 FY2026 free cash flow of negative $36M to negative $38M, expects to end Q1 with driverless trucks in the high‑20s (exited 2025 with 20 trucks and is executing a 100‑truck Atlas commitment with ~80 remaining to be delivered over the next few quarters), and projects liquidity into Q4 FY2026 after exiting 2025 with $121M of cash and marketable securities (including an upsized $30M refinancing facility maturing in early 2030 with no principal due until 2028); Q4 results included $1.1M revenue (+37% QoQ), GAAP operating loss of $39M (non‑GAAP operating loss $30M), Q4 CapEx of $10M and free cash flow of negative $34M (better than prior guidance of negative $36M–$38M); operational and safety metrics cited tied to the guidance and roadmap include >10,700 driverless revenue hours (~700,000 miles), >12,600 loads delivered (up 87% vs year‑end 2024), an autonomy‑readiness measure of 84% as of Feb‑2026, and a target for long‑haul driverless launch in late 2026.Kodiak AI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
10
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.80M | 14.93M | 16.95M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -20.97M | 14.93M | 16.95M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -109.38M | -59.89M | -47.41M | -35.67M | -30.45M |
| Net Income | -585.52M | -69.46M | -56.95M | 49.31M | 15.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 159.41M | 35.56M | 46.29M | 1.01B | 417.42K |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 120.67M | 16.71M | 27.76M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 36.44M | 41.73M | 42.33M | 233.24K | 181.86K |
| Total Liabilities | 219.27M | 286.40M | 233.39M | 61.15M | 404.92K |
| Stockholders Equity | -59.87M | -250.84M | -187.10M | 952.33M | 12.50K |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -116.47M | -54.15M | -47.11M | -2.21M | -1.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -94.44M | -50.96M | -43.84M | -2.21M | -1.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.43M | -3.21M | 17.28M | 0.00 | -1.00B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 219.93M | 43.13M | 12.03M | 1.50M | 1.00B |
Kodiak AI Technical Analysis
Neutral
7.79
Price Trends
8.30
Negative
8.37
Negative
9.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
49.27
Neutral
81.26
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.69, below the 50-day MA of 8.30, and below the 200-day MA of 9.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KDK.
Kodiak AI Risk Analysis
Kodiak AI disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kodiak AI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kodiak AI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.