Kodiak AI (KDK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 411.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.17
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -969.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 271
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 182,555,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 440,676
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 411,073
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -16.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 262.36
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 409.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -74.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -14.20
• 1Y Price Target: $14.33
• Price Target Upside: 66.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.18M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(4.53% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (shrinking revenue, worsening losses, negative equity, and accelerating cash burn). Technicals are mixed-to-neutral, while the earnings call reflects meaningful operational milestones but still significant cash outflows. The recent venture loan supports liquidity but underscores financing dependence, and valuation is not supportive given negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Operational scale (driverless fleet)

Rapid doubling of deployed driverless trucks and a large increase in paid driverless hours materially expand real-world data collection and validation. That improves safety model development, reduces incremental training cost per mile, and strengthens the company’s ability to scale DaaS commercial operations over the next several quarters.

Strategic supplier & safety partnerships

Deep partnerships with established suppliers and adoption of ISO 26262-compliant hardware reduce systems integration risk and support redundancy requirements. Coupled with third-party safety recognition, these structural advantages improve regulatory and customer confidence and lower execution risk for broader commercial and defense deployments.

Early DaaS revenue traction

Quarter-over-quarter revenue acceleration driven by Driver-as-a-Service and rising customer-owned driverless trucks indicates early product-market fit. A successful DaaS model can convert deployments into recurring revenue and margin expansion as utilization and scale rise, supporting more durable top-line growth if execution continues.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue contraction

A roughly 61% year-over-year revenue decline signals weakened demand or deployment pacing and erodes operating leverage. Sustained revenue shrinkage reduces the company’s ability to absorb fixed costs, prolongs time to breakeven, and increases the probability that additional restructuring or financing will be required before scaling profits.

Persistent heavy cash burn

Large negative free cash flow guidance and ongoing multi-year cash outflows create structural funding needs. Continued burn constrains strategic flexibility, forces reliance on external capital, and raises dilution or covenant risk if operational scale and revenue per truck do not improve within the financing runway.

Balance sheet strain and secured obligations

Negative shareholders’ equity and material debt reduce financial resilience and complicate future raises. Secured borrowings and covenant terms (noted elsewhere) heighten default risk and can limit investment flexibility, making it harder to fund expansion or absorb shocks without dilutive equity or onerous refinancing.

Kodiak AI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kodiak AI, Inc. develops a technology software. The Company offers AI-powered ground autonomy solutions for vehicles to navigate highways, surface streets, and off-road terrain through multi-sensor architecture transportation technology for trucking, defense, and industrial industries.

How the Company Makes Money

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Kodiak AI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements indicate a high-risk profile: 2025 revenue contracted sharply (~-61% vs. 2024), losses worsened materially, stockholders’ equity is negative (2023–2025), and operating/free cash flow remain negative with a worsening cash burn trend—raising funding and dilution risk.

Income Statement

Revenue contracted sharply in 2025 (down ~61% vs. 2024), and profitability deteriorated materially. The company moved from already-large losses in 2023–2024 to an extremely weak 2025 result, with deeply negative operating profitability and an even larger net loss. While earlier years show some revenue base (2023–2024), the overall trajectory is negative and indicates limited operating leverage and high cost structure relative to sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows significant strain, highlighted by negative stockholders’ equity in 2023–2025, which is a major risk signal and reduces financial flexibility. Total debt is meaningful and relatively stable (~$36–$42M in 2023–2025), but negative equity makes leverage harder to interpret and increases downside risk. The sharp swing from very high positive equity in 2022 to deeply negative equity afterward also suggests major structural changes and volatility in capitalization.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative across the more recent years, with cash burn worsening substantially in 2025 versus 2024. Free cash flow is also negative and did not show improvement in the latest period. While losses are being accompanied by cash outflow (consistent with a heavy investment/burn phase), the scale and worsening trend elevate funding and dilution risk if conditions do not improve.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.80M	14.93M	16.95M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-20.97M	14.93M	16.95M	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-109.38M	-59.89M	-47.41M	-35.67M	-30.45M
Net Income	-585.52M	-69.46M	-56.95M	49.31M	15.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	159.41M	35.56M	46.29M	1.01B	417.42K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.67M	16.71M	27.76M	0.00	0.00
Total Debt	36.44M	41.73M	42.33M	233.24K	181.86K
Total Liabilities	219.27M	286.40M	233.39M	61.15M	404.92K
Stockholders Equity	-59.87M	-250.84M	-187.10M	952.33M	12.50K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-116.47M	-54.15M	-47.11M	-2.21M	-1.41M
Operating Cash Flow	-94.44M	-50.96M	-43.84M	-2.21M	-1.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-91.43M	-3.21M	17.28M	0.00	-1.00B
Financing Cash Flow	219.93M	43.13M	12.03M	1.50M	1.00B

Kodiak AI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KDK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.53, below the 50-day MA of 9.02, and below the 200-day MA of 9.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KDK.

Kodiak AI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Kodiak AI Corporate Events

Kodiak AI Secures New $30 Million Venture Loan

On December 31, 2025, Kodiak AI, Inc. and its subsidiary Kodiak Robotics, Inc. entered into a new senior secured venture loan and security agreement with Horizon Technology Finance Corporation for a $30 million term loan facility, using part of the proceeds to repay existing indebtedness to the same lender and allocating the remainder to working capital and general corporate needs. The facility, which carries interest at the prime rate plus 3.50% (with a 6.50% prime floor) and matures on January 1, 2030, provides an interest-only period from February 1, 2026 through July 1, 2028, after which the loan amortizes over 18 months, and is secured by substantially all of the borrowers’ assets, including intellectual property; it also includes customary covenants, prepayment penalties, fees totaling at least $1.5 million, and standard default provisions that could accelerate repayment and increase the interest rate, underscoring the company’s reliance on structured venture debt while terminating its prior loan agreement from September 28, 2022 with the same lender.

The most recent analyst rating on (KDK) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kodiak AI stock, see the KDK Stock Forecast page.