Tosei (8923) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥150.51B
• Dividend Yield: 2.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 136.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 17.74%
• EPS Growth: 19.41%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 809
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 7.30
• Shares Outstanding: 97,367,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 213,080
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 136,853
• PEG Ratio: 0.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.67
• P/FCF Ratio: -34.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,860.00
• Price Target Upside: 60.04% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,659.00 ▼(-7.16% Downside)

The score is primarily held back by weak cash generation (negative operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025) and elevated leverage, despite strong profitability improvements. Offsetting this, technicals are bullish with price above major moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and a ~2.77% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improving profitability

Margin expansion to the mid-teens indicates the company has improved operating efficiency and pricing power in its assets. Durable higher margins support internal capital generation, better returns on equity, and provide a buffer versus cyclical rental or occupancy swings over the medium term.

Stable rental income base

A business model centered on rental income and long-term leases delivers predictable recurring revenue and reduces revenue volatility. For a real estate operator, steady lease rolls support long-term occupancy management, portfolio planning, and reliable cash flow recognition across cycles.

Rising equity and ROE

Improving ROE and expanding equity suggest management has generated stronger shareholder returns and strengthened the capital base. Higher ROE reflects better asset utilization and can enable reinvestment or distributions without excessive reliance on external funding.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Sustained high leverage increases sensitivity to interest rates and property-cycle downturns, limiting financial flexibility. In real estate, elevated debt ratios raise refinancing risk and the likelihood of forced asset disposals or higher financing costs during tightening cycles.

Weak cash generation

Repeat negative operating and free cash flow despite reported profits signals timing or structural cash conversion issues. Persistently weak cash generation constrains capex, debt servicing and distributions, and may force reliance on new debt or asset sales to fund operations.

Top-line softness

A decline in revenue interrupts growth momentum and can pressure margins if fixed costs persist. For a property-focused firm, falling revenue may reflect occupancy or rental-rate headwinds and, if sustained, will undermine cash flow recovery and longer-term investment plans.

Tosei Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tosei Corporation operates in the revitalization, development, rental, fund and consulting, and property management businesses in Japan. The company acquires properties whose asset value has declined and improves value-up activities; develops office buildings, commercial facilities, condominiums, detached houses, and hotels; and leases buildings, apartments, commercial facilities, car parks, and other properties. It is also involved in the provision of asset management services for real estate funds, as well as consultancy and intermediary services for corporates; acquisition and disposition of properties; and investment management, investment advisory and agency, and financial instrument businesses. In addition, the company offers property management services, including building management, security, renovation, and tenant leasing services. Further, it is involved in the consultancy services; real estate brokerage activities; hotel planning, operation, and management businesses. The company was formerly known as Tosei Fudosan Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Tosei Corporation in October 2006. Tosei Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tosei generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of commercial and residential properties. The company also earns money through property sales, development projects, and asset management fees. A significant portion of its earnings comes from long-term leases with tenants, providing stable cash flow. Additionally, Tosei engages in strategic partnerships with other real estate firms and investors, which can enhance its project pipeline and increase profitability through joint ventures and collaborative developments.

Tosei Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has improved materially (net margin rising to ~15.6% by 2025), but overall fundamentals are constrained by elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.5–1.8x) and, most importantly, negative operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025 despite reported profits. Revenue also softened with a decline in 2025 (-2.1%).

Income Statement

Profitability has strengthened meaningfully over the last several years, with gross and operating margins expanding and net margin rising from ~5.6% (2020) to ~15.6% (2025). Earnings have grown alongside this improvement. The main weak spot is the recent top-line slowdown: revenue growth turned negative in 2025 (-2.1%) after modest growth in 2024, which could pressure results if the trend persists.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-heavy and equity has grown over time, supporting returns to shareholders (ROE improved to ~13% in 2023–2024 from ~6% in 2020). However, leverage is elevated and persistent: debt-to-equity has remained roughly ~1.5–1.8x, and total debt has climbed materially since 2020. This increases sensitivity to property-cycle swings and financing conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key concern. Operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative in 2024 and 2025, following mixed results in prior years (strongly positive in 2020, modest/negative in 2021–2022, positive in 2023). The repeated negative operating cash flow versus reported profits in the most recent two years points to working-capital/investment timing risk and reduces financial flexibility despite solid accounting earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	94.69B	82.19B	79.45B	70.95B	61.73B
Gross Profit	39.90B	35.20B	30.29B	25.27B	20.70B
EBITDA	24.01B	20.71B	18.25B	14.85B	12.42B
Net Income	14.75B	11.99B	10.51B	8.61B	6.72B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	307.43B	276.82B	245.33B	210.96B	195.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	39.60B	34.87B	39.20B	31.77B	33.56B
Total Debt	182.64B	165.90B	146.59B	124.85B	114.95B
Total Liabilities	204.59B	185.95B	163.01B	138.67B	129.05B
Stockholders Equity	102.81B	90.50B	82.05B	72.29B	65.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.52B	-13.27B	5.27B	-365.40M	-39.39M
Operating Cash Flow	-4.36B	-13.05B	5.72B	-197.08M	974.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.82B	-5.61B	-16.10B	-9.08B	-15.45B
Financing Cash Flow	12.90B	14.33B	19.13B	7.48B	10.99B

Tosei Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1787.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8923, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1787 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1687.85, above the 50-day MA of 1682.91, and above the 200-day MA of 1481.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -40.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:8923.

Tosei Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8931	78 Outperform	¥19.36B	5.59	―	4.71%	10.42%	48.21%
8850	68 Neutral	¥241.08B	10.22	―	2.67%	2.29%	-4.12%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
3010	65 Neutral	¥43.51B	14.26	―	1.60%	116.30%	-0.08%
8923	64 Neutral	¥150.51B	10.19	14.95%	2.95%	17.74%	19.41%
8803	63 Neutral	¥175.08B	14.32	8.95%	3.39%	28.94%	109.35%
3475	54 Neutral	¥38.42B	24.32	―	3.75%	-8.66%	-53.57%

Tosei Corporate Events

Tosei Posts Strong FY2025 Earnings, Hikes Dividend and Projects Further Growth for 2026

Tosei Corporation reported solid growth for the fiscal year ended November 30, 2025, with revenue rising 15.2% to ¥94.7 billion and operating profit up 20.8%, driving a 23.1% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent. Profitability metrics improved, equity and total assets expanded, and year-end cash and cash equivalents climbed, while the company raised its annual dividend to ¥100 per share (pre-split basis) and executed a 2-for-1 share split effective December 1, 2025, boosting per-share metrics such as equity per share. Looking ahead to the year ending November 30, 2026, Tosei is guiding for nearly 30% revenue growth and higher operating profit, with modest profit growth attributable to shareholders and a lower per-share dividend post-split, indicating a strategy focused on scaling its business while maintaining shareholder returns within a disciplined capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8923) stock is a Hold with a Yen3509.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tosei stock, see the JP:8923 Stock Forecast page.