Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.13T
• Dividend Yield: 2.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 11.00%
• EPS Growth: 88.70%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 21,170
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 14.12
• Shares Outstanding: 719,831,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,020,730
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,328,523
• PEG Ratio: 0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.62
• P/FCF Ratio: -30.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.91
• 1Y Price Target: $1,553.33
• Price Target Upside: -1.09% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 128.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.30T

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,790.00 ▲(13.98% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 11/22/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 11/22/25

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings is well-positioned with strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The stock's bullish technical indicators are tempered by overbought signals, suggesting caution. The company's high leverage and negative Free Cash Flow are risks that should be monitored.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue mix

Tokyu Fudosan's business spans development sales, leased income, and management fees, creating multiple durable cash streams. Recurring rental and fee income smooths earnings versus cyclical residential sales, while development provides additional margin upside and asset accumulation over time.

Improving margins & steady revenue

Margin expansion and steady revenue growth reflect improving cost control and pricing power in core operations. Higher gross and net margins, plus an improved EBIT margin, indicate enhanced operational efficiency that supports sustainable profitability through property cycles and funds reinvestment.

Equity base & ROE improvement

A stable equity ratio and rising ROE show the company retains a meaningful capital cushion while improving capital efficiency. This supports financing for development projects, underpins creditor confidence, and helps absorb property market volatility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Leverage at roughly 2.1x equity is elevated even for real estate, increasing interest and refinancing risk if cash flows soften. High debt reduces financial flexibility for opportunistic land buys or distress scenarios and makes the company more sensitive to rate upcycles and credit market tightening.

Negative free cash flow

Persistent negative free cash flow driven by heavy capex/expansion requires external funding or higher leverage to sustain growth. Over months this can constrain liquidity, limit discretionary spending (dividends, buybacks), and increase reliance on capital markets during tougher real estate cycles.

Weak cash conversion

OCF at 0.61x of net income signals earnings are not fully converting to cash; combined with negative FCF this raises concerns about true cash generation. Over the medium term weak cash conversion can pressure debt servicing, limit reinvestment flexibility, and amplify the impact of cyclical revenue dips.

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate business in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Urban Development, Strategic Investment, Property Management & Operation, and Real Estate Agents. The Urban Development segment develops and operates office buildings, commercial facilities, condominiums, leased housing, and other facilities. The Strategic Investment segment develops and improves infrastructures, such as renewable energy power generation and logistics facilities. The Property Management & Operation segment manages condominiums, buildings and facilities, and other properties; and constructs rental conference rooms and hotels, as well as leisure, healthcare, and environmental and greening management facilities. The Real-Estate Agents segment provides real-estate sales agent service and consignment sales; and engages in operations related to rental housing management. It also owns and manages resort facilities, urban style hotels, senior housings, and membership sports clubs. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is from the sale and leasing of residential properties, where it develops and sells condominiums and houses, as well as rents out apartments and commercial spaces. Additionally, the company earns income from its property management services, which involve managing real estate assets for clients. Another significant revenue stream comes from real estate investment trusts (REITs) and partnerships with other developers and investors, enabling the company to share profits from larger projects. Moreover, Tokyu Fudosan Holdings benefits from its strategic collaborations with other entities in the Tokyu Group, which can lead to bundled services and integrated development projects, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings shows strong revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is robust but with high leverage, typical for the industry. Cash flow management is crucial due to negative Free Cash Flow from high capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings shows a strong performance in its income statement with consistent revenue growth and improving profit margins. The Gross Profit Margin improved to 21.33% in 2025 from 19.59% in 2024. Net Profit Margin increased to 6.74% from 6.21% over the same period, indicating better cost management. Revenue growth has been steady, with a 4.28% increase from 2024 to 2025. The EBIT Margin improved to 12.23%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. However, the EBITDA Margin of 17.08% suggests room for further improvement in operational leverage.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet remains robust, with a stable Equity Ratio of 25.23% in 2025. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is slightly high at 2.12, indicating significant leverage, which is typical in the real estate industry but poses a risk if cash flow weakens. The Return on Equity improved to 9.43%, showcasing a solid return for shareholders. Overall, while leveraging is high, the company maintains a strong equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative Free Cash Flow due to high capital expenditures, typical for real estate expansion. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.61, indicating decent cash generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is negative, reflecting heavy reinvestment, which could impact liquidity if not managed properly. However, the company's operating cash flow remains positive, supporting ongoing operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.17T	1.15T	1.10T	1.01T	989.05B	907.74B
Gross Profit	257.73B	245.32B	216.03B	197.15B	193.90B	164.79B
EBITDA	207.21B	192.12B	164.68B	160.16B	132.54B	101.66B
Net Income	89.22B	77.56B	68.55B	48.23B	35.13B	21.67B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.33T	3.26T	3.03T	2.74T	2.63T	2.65T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	224.25B	182.24B	263.19B	186.01B	177.60B	210.93B
Total Debt	1.85T	1.75T	1.59T	1.48T	1.42T	1.48T
Total Liabilities	2.48T	2.42T	2.26T	2.04T	1.99T	2.04T
Stockholders Equity	826.12B	822.52B	750.15B	684.63B	631.79B	596.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-23.10B	-88.85B	92.33B	75.55B	143.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	47.43B	156.47B	94.74B	76.45B	100.41B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-139.98B	-178.19B	-120.06B	-31.79B	-116.03B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	1.47B	97.77B	42.76B	-81.27B	108.34B

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1570.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3289, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1570.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1529.25, above the 50-day MA of 1482.43, and above the 200-day MA of 1252.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 24.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3289.

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3289	78 Outperform	$1.13T	12.16	12.53%	2.88%	11.00%	88.70%
8801	78 Outperform	¥5.79T	17.97	9.59%	1.86%	18.31%	71.89%
1878	74 Outperform	¥1.24T	12.82	19.43%	5.16%	5.16%	6.00%
3288	72 Outperform	¥1.35T	12.55	19.60%	1.94%	3.13%	11.87%
8802	71 Outperform	$6.31T	27.03	7.67%	1.18%	7.97%	13.59%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
8803	63 Neutral	¥174.81B	15.68	8.95%	3.39%	28.94%	109.35%

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporate Events

Tokyu Fudosan Revamps Top Management to Drive 2030 Growth Plan

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings has announced a top management change effective April 1, 2026, as part of efforts to reinforce its management base and accelerate progress toward the targets in its Medium-Term Management Plan 2030. Current President & CEO Hironori Nishikawa will move to the role of Chairman and Representative Director, while Hiroaki Hoshino, now President & CEO of core subsidiary Tokyu Land Corporation and a Representative Director & Operating Officer of the holding company, will be promoted to President & CEO. The appointment of a seasoned executive with a long career across the group signals an emphasis on continuity and stronger integration between the holding company and its main operating arm ahead of broader organizational and personnel changes to be detailed in March.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3289) stock is a Hold with a Yen1450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyu Fudosan Holdings stock, see the JP:3289 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Lifts Nine-Month Profit 31% and Confirms Strong FY2025 Outlook

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings reported solid results for the first nine months of fiscal 2025, with operating revenue up 9.0% year on year to ¥832.2 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent rising 31.1% to ¥62.2 billion, reflecting improved profitability and higher earnings per share of ¥87.04. Total assets expanded to ¥3.41 trillion while equity remained stable, and the company maintained its full-year forecast, projecting double-digit growth in operating revenue and profit for the year ending March 31, 2026, alongside an increased annual dividend forecast of ¥44.50 per share, signaling confidence in earnings strength and continued shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3289) stock is a Hold with a Yen1450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyu Fudosan Holdings stock, see the JP:3289 Stock Forecast page.

Tokyu Fudosan Pioneers Japan’s First Climate/Nature-Linked Bonds

Tokyu Fudosan Holdings Corporation has announced the issuance of Climate/Nature-Linked Bonds, marking a significant step as Japan’s first Sustainability-Linked Bond aligned with ICMA’s guidelines. This issuance, valued at 40 billion yen, aims to support the company’s sustainability goals, including CO2 emission reductions and forest conservation, reflecting its commitment to environmental responsibility and enhancing its market position in sustainable finance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3289) stock is a Buy with a Yen1603.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokyu Fudosan Holdings stock, see the JP:3289 Stock Forecast page.