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UniCredit SpA
(OTC:UCG)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
€94.00
▲(16.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a very positive earnings-call outlook with upgraded guidance. Valuation is supportive (P/E 11.46 and 3.78% yield). The main restraint is financial quality/stability: revenue volatility, uneven cash flows over multiple years, and higher leverage in 2025.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
UniCredit's material recovery to ~€11bn net income with ROE around 15–16% and expanded operating margins reflects durable earnings power. Higher margins and retained earnings enhance internal capital generation, funding strategic investments and cushioning cyclical shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
The pickup in debt-to-equity to ~2.6x reverses prior deleveraging and constrains financial flexibility. Higher leverage raises funding and regulatory sensitivity, increases capital strain under stress, and could limit dividend/buyback capacity or require faster capital remediation if adverse shocks occur.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
UniCredit's material recovery to ~€11bn net income with ROE around 15–16% and expanded operating margins reflects durable earnings power. Higher margins and retained earnings enhance internal capital generation, funding strategic investments and cushioning cyclical shocks over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
UniCredit SpA (UCG) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€123.00B
Dividend Yield3.95%
Average Volume (3M)5.54M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth2.06%
EPS Growth8.44%
CountryIT
Employees75,265
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.26
Shares Outstanding1,507,953,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,991,115
30 Day Avg. Volume5,542,281
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)4.83
P/FCF Ratio11.04
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€88.18Price Target Upside9.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)€26.34B
UniCredit SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UniCredit S.p.A. is a prominent commercial banking institution offering a comprehensive range of financial services across the retail, corporate, and private banking sectors. Its extensive product portfolio includes deposit accounts, lending produ...
How the Company Makes Money
UniCredit primarily earns revenue through net interest income and fee- and commission-based income. Net interest income is generated by collecting interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g., mortgages, consumer lending, SME and corp...
UniCredit SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record quarterly and half-year results, double-digit adjusted revenue growth, significant efficiency gains driven by AI-led transformation, robust asset quality and clear capital generation. Management upgraded 2026 net profit guidance and outlined meaningful upside from a potential Commerzbank transaction. Key risks relate to near-term one-offs, the capital and P&L impact of Commerzbank consolidation (including PPA, investment and additional coverage), pending regulatory approvals (Danish compromise, Commerzbank authorization), and integration execution risk. On balance, the highlights — strong earnings, revenue diversification, efficiency gains and upgraded guidance — outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record performance and upgraded guidance
22nd consecutive record quarter; best Q2 and best first half in UniCredit history. 2026 net profit guidance upgraded to circa EUR 11.5bn excluding integration costs and well above EUR 11bn including them.
Negative Updates
One-off impacts and Russia compression
Performance excludes negative one-offs: trading one-off and temporary RWA impact from increased Commerzbank position and accelerated Russia compression. Russia reduced first-half revenues by ~EUR 70m and further compression remains a headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record performance and upgraded guidance
22nd consecutive record quarter; best Q2 and best first half in UniCredit history. 2026 net profit guidance upgraded to circa EUR 11.5bn excluding integration costs and well above EUR 11bn including them.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UniCredit upgraded guidance, now targeting 2026 net profit of circa EUR 11.5bn excluding integration costs (well above EUR 11bn including them) and a year‑end CET1 of circa 15% (reported 14.3%; 14.5% excl. a 19bp Commerzbank mark; ~15% pro‑forma for Danish compromise; ~13% day‑one if consolidated early), and expects NII to accelerate in H2 with a structural hedge contribution of ~EUR 400m in 2026 (EUR 1.3bn cum. to 2028; EUR 2.4bn to 2030) on Euribor assumptions of ~2.3% for 2026 and ~2.6% for 2027–28; group cost‑of‑risk guidance remains 15–20bps (current 17bps, overlay stock EUR 1.6bn with ~EUR 70m used), adjusted revenues rose 13% q/q (10% H1) with core revenue +5% and underlying revenue +10%, adjusted net profit was EUR 3.1bn in Q2 / EUR 6.3bn H1 (adj. GOP/NOP >20% q/q; >15% H1), adj. EPS +28%, DPS and TBV per share +16%, RoTE 23% (Q2) / 24% (H1), quarterly organic capital generation ~85bps, costs improving (costs -2% excl. perimeter, non‑business costs -5%), top‑tier adjusted net revenues on RWA 8.7%, net NPE 1.4% (coverage 45.9%, default 0.8%); and on Commerzbank the group holds ~47.6% of shares (49.65% voting), has upgraded pre‑merger value creation to EUR 1.2bn by 2030 (EUR 350m revenue initiatives, EUR 1.4bn efficiencies confirmed, merger synergies ~EUR 800m) with an estimated initial capital impact of ~200bps if consolidated quickly.UniCredit SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 24.03B | 23.46B | 46.75B | 44.93B | 26.75B | 22.29B |
| Gross Profit | 23.14B | 22.80B | 26.58B | 25.36B | 21.04B | 18.67B |
| EBITDA | 14.13B | 13.68B | 14.17B | 13.08B | 8.59B | 3.27B |
| Net Income | 11.52B | 11.02B | 9.72B | 9.51B | 6.46B | 2.10B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 902.16B | 870.24B | 784.00B | 784.97B | 857.77B | 916.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.18B | 125.86B | 54.32B | 72.34B | 134.24B | 162.27B |
| Total Debt | 160.03B | 202.00B | 122.72B | 192.06B | 115.46B | 286.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 833.36B | 802.13B | 721.16B | 720.73B | 794.28B | 854.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 68.42B | 67.71B | 62.44B | 64.08B | 63.34B | 62.19B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 10.27B | -8.33B | -41.72B | 9.09B | -8.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 10.99B | -7.08B | -41.13B | 10.26B | -7.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -30.14B | -1.06B | -787.00M | -237.00M | -699.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 15.70B | -10.99B | -8.45B | -5.55B | -1.41B |
UniCredit SpA Technical Analysis
Neutral
80.43
Price Trends
77.73
Positive
71.61
Positive
68.99
Positive
Market Momentum
1.17
Positive
51.62
Neutral
40.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:UCG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 80.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 81.58, above the 50-day MA of 77.73, and above the 200-day MA of 68.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IT:UCG.
UniCredit SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €114.42B | 11.78 | 15.77% | 5.84% | -8.72% | 8.09% | |
76 Outperform | €123.00B | 11.59 | 16.15% | 3.92% | 2.06% | 8.44% | |
74 Outperform | €28.82B | 13.29 | 12.80% | 4.75% | 10.56% | 10.67% | |
71 Outperform | €23.43B | 7.75 | 18.53% | 6.38% | -10.25% | 8.52% | |
69 Neutral | €35.12B | 8.38 | 16.07% | 7.40% | 10.29% | -0.75% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | €14.43B | 22.25 | 26.08% | 3.33% | 0.32% | -0.89% |
* Financial Sector Average
IT:UCG
UniCredit SpA
79.77
18.57
30.35%
IT:BMPS
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA
11.48
4.64
67.89%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
15.35
5.22
51.51%
IT:BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
13.65
5.46
66.62%
IT:FBK
FinecoBank SpA
23.35
4.99
27.15%
IT:ISP
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
6.45
1.38
27.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.