UniCredit SpA (IT:UCG)
:UCG
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UniCredit SpA
(UCG)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
€71.00
▼(-1.13% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and supportive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield), reinforced by constructive earnings-call guidance and capital return plans. These positives are tempered by mixed fundamental quality (revenue volatility, leverage uptick, inconsistent cash flows) and weak current technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Improving Profitability & ROTE
UniCredit's strong and improving profitability is a durable strength: multi-year recovery from a 2020 loss to double-digit net income supports organic capital generation, funds shareholder returns, and provides operating leverage that can sustain investment and underwriting capacity across cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
A renewed increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to adverse shocks. Higher debt-to-equity constrains capital ratios and makes capital management harder when combined with expected RWA growth or regulatory adjustments, limiting optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Profitability & ROTE
UniCredit's strong and improving profitability is a durable strength: multi-year recovery from a 2020 loss to double-digit net income supports organic capital generation, funds shareholder returns, and provides operating leverage that can sustain investment and underwriting capacity across cycles.
Read all positive factors
UniCredit SpA (UCG) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€96.52B
Dividend Yield4.15%
Average Volume (3M)7.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth0.31%
EPS Growth16.61%
CountryIT
Employees75,265
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.22
Shares Outstanding1,507,953,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,100,189
30 Day Avg. Volume7,409,920
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.68
Price to Sales (P/S)4.83
P/FCF Ratio11.04
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€87.04Price Target Upside21.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)€25.92B
UniCredit SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UniCredit S.p.A. operates as a commercial bank that provides retail, corporate, and private banking services. It offers accounts and deposits, loans, cards, transactions and payments, funds, advisory, treasury, and insurance products, as well as d...
How the Company Makes Money
UniCredit primarily makes money by intermediating between savers and borrowers and by charging fees for financial services. Its main earnings driver is net interest income: the bank collects funding (e.g., current accounts and term deposits, whole...
UniCredit SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of record results for FY25 with broad-based commercial momentum, high profitability, robust fee growth, disciplined cost control and clear medium-term targets (net revenue, cost base, net profit, ROTE and high shareholder distributions). Management also outlined an ambitious UniCredit Unlimited strategy emphasizing AI, technology, platform rollouts (Vodeno, Buddy, DealSync) and capital-light product growth, supported by excess capital and overlays. Key near-term challenges include regulatory and tax-driven CET1 pressure, Russia-related revenue compression, meaningful recurring hedging costs (~€500m p.a. expected), RWA increases from model/regulatory changes, and execution risk around fast AI-driven transformation and workforce redeployment. Overall, the positives (record results, clear targets, strong commercial momentum and capital/distribution optionality) outweigh the negatives, though successful delivery depends on execution of technology/AI initiatives and regulatory/RWA management.Positive Updates
Record FY 2025 Profitability
Net profit €10.6bn, up 14% year-on-year; return on tangible equity (ROTE) 19.2% (22% adjusted for excess capital), up ~1.5 percentage points; EPS +20%, DPS +31%, tangible book value per share +19%.
Negative Updates
CET1 Decline and Regulatory / Tax Headwinds
Reported CET1 declined from 15.9% to 14.7% driven by expected regulatory headwinds and additional Italian taxes; pro forma CET1 improvement subject to timing (14.8% pro forma with certain consolidations) — timing mismatch and regulatory uncertainty remain a challenge.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record FY 2025 Profitability
Net profit €10.6bn, up 14% year-on-year; return on tangible equity (ROTE) 19.2% (22% adjusted for excess capital), up ~1.5 percentage points; EPS +20%, DPS +31%, tangible book value per share +19%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
UniCredit guided to grow net revenue at about a 5% CAGR to ~€27.5bn by 2028 (directionally >€29bn by 2030), driven by NII+fees+net‑insurance (ex‑Russia) >5% CAGR and ~€1bn of equity‑investment earnings (net of hedges) by 2028 that should more than offset Russia compression; management targets net profit growing ~7% p.a. to ~€13bn by 2028 (directionally ~€15bn by 2030) and RoTE above 23% by 2028 (aspiring to ~25% by 2030) while maintaining NII RoAC around 20%. They plan to reset the efficiency frontier with a cost base down ~1% p.a. to ~€9.2bn by 2028 and below €9bn by 2030 (cost/income circa 33% in 2028, <30% by 2030), expect cost of risk at 15–20bps (with €1.7bn of overlays and €1.4bn front‑loaded charges), foresee average hedging costs ~€500m p.a. in the next three years (lower in 2026), report excess capital >€4.5bn and replicate portfolio contribution of ~€400m p.a., and confirm an 80% ordinary payout (50% dividend/30% buyback) implying cumulative ordinary distributions of ~€30bn over 3 years and ~€50bn over 5 (in addition to the €9.5bn planned for 2025); NII sensitivity is ~€300m per ±50bp.UniCredit SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.68B | 23.46B | 46.75B | 44.93B | 26.75B | 22.29B |
| Gross Profit | 25.68B | 22.80B | 26.58B | 25.36B | 21.04B | 18.67B |
| EBITDA | 14.79B | 13.68B | 14.17B | 13.08B | 8.59B | 3.27B |
| Net Income | 10.60B | 11.02B | 9.72B | 9.51B | 6.46B | 2.10B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 860.33B | 870.24B | 784.00B | 784.97B | 857.77B | 916.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.80B | 125.86B | 54.32B | 72.34B | 134.24B | 162.27B |
| Total Debt | 219.75B | 202.00B | 122.72B | 192.06B | 115.46B | 286.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 791.91B | 802.13B | 721.16B | 720.73B | 794.28B | 854.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 68.02B | 67.71B | 62.44B | 64.08B | 63.34B | 62.19B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 10.27B | -8.33B | -41.72B | 9.09B | -8.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 10.99B | -7.08B | -41.13B | 10.26B | -7.52B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -30.14B | -1.06B | -787.00M | -237.00M | -699.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 15.70B | -10.99B | -8.45B | -5.55B | -1.41B |
UniCredit SpA Technical Analysis
Positive
71.81
Price Trends
68.15
Positive
68.71
Positive
65.52
Positive
Market Momentum
1.05
Negative
63.64
Neutral
90.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:UCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 71.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.55, above the 50-day MA of 68.15, and above the 200-day MA of 65.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:UCG.
UniCredit SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | €98.30B | 10.67 | 14.41% | 6.08% | -8.94% | 11.50% | |
74 Outperform | €24.95B | 12.53 | 13.48% | 6.09% | 12.48% | 14.40% | |
69 Neutral | €12.81B | 10.31 | 40.02% | 3.35% | 0.32% | -0.89% | |
68 Neutral | €27.32B | 2.42 | 19.13% | 9.69% | 10.29% | -0.75% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | €18.41B | 5.75 | 18.92% | 8.25% | -10.25% | 8.52% | |
65 Neutral | €96.52B | 14.53 | 16.32% | 4.15% | 0.31% | 16.61% |
* Financial Sector Average
IT:UCG
UniCredit SpA
64.39
14.36
28.71%
IT:BMPS
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SPA
9.03
2.21
32.49%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
12.37
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42.37%
IT:BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
12.20
5.56
83.65%
IT:FBK
FinecoBank SpA
21.24
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25.86%
IT:ISP
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5.67
1.23
27.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.