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UniCredit SpA (IT:UCG)
:UCG
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UniCredit SpA (UCG) AI Stock Analysis

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IT:UCG

UniCredit SpA

(UCG)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
€71.00
▲(15.30% Upside)
UniCredit SpA's strong financial performance and upgraded earnings guidance are the most significant factors driving the score. The stock's undervaluation and attractive dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest caution, and cash flow management remains an area for improvement.

UniCredit SpA (UCG) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)

UniCredit SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUniCredit SpA (UCG) is a leading European commercial bank headquartered in Milan, Italy. The bank operates primarily in Italy and Central and Eastern Europe, providing a wide range of financial services including retail banking, corporate banking, investment banking, wealth management, and asset management. With a strong focus on customer service and innovation, UniCredit aims to support individuals and businesses in achieving their financial goals through a comprehensive suite of products and services tailored to diverse market needs.
How the Company Makes MoneyUniCredit generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances to customers, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. The bank offers various loan products, including personal loans, mortgages, and business loans, which yield interest payments. Additionally, UniCredit earns fees and commissions from its investment banking services, including underwriting, advisory services, and asset management. Wealth management services, such as portfolio management and financial planning, also contribute to revenue through fees charged to clients. Moreover, the bank benefits from transactional banking services, where it charges fees for services related to payment processing and account maintenance. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions, fintech companies, and global networks enhance its service offerings and revenue potential. Overall, UniCredit's diversified revenue streams and focus on customer-centric solutions play a crucial role in its financial performance.

UniCredit SpA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected strong financial performance with record profits, improved operational efficiency, and upgraded guidance. However, challenges such as the withdrawal from the Banco BPM bid and the costs associated with the Commerzbank stake hedge were notable low points.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Profit and Return on Tangible Equity
UniCredit posted record net profit of EUR 3.3 billion in Q2 and EUR 6.1 billion in H1 2025, driven by core revenue growth and cost of risk discipline.
Core Revenue Growth
Core revenues grew 1.3% year-over-year in Q2 and 1.5% in H1 2025, with net interest income holding up better than expected and fees growing by 3.6% in the half.
Operational Efficiency
UniCredit reduced costs by 1.5% in Q2 and 1.4% in H1, improving the cost/income ratio to less than 36%.
Capital Efficiency
Capital efficiency improved, with net revenue to RWA reaching 8.8% in Q2 and 9% in H1. CET1 ratio increased to 16.2% pro forma.
Geographical Performance
Italy, Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe showed strong performance with record-setting growth in various KPIs.
Guidance Upgrade
Upgraded 2025 guidance with net profit expected to reach circa EUR 10.5 billion and distribution guidance upgraded to at least EUR 9.5 billion.
Negative Updates
Withdrawal from Banco BPM Bid
UniCredit withdrew its bid for Banco BPM due to ongoing uncertainty with the Golden Power and the shifting value of the transaction.
Commerzbank Hedging Costs
The cost of hedging the Commerzbank stake is impacting net profit, with EUR 600 million net profit expected from Commerzbank despite higher consensus earnings.
Russia Exposure
Profit from Russia remains volatile, with plans for significant reduction in exposure by 2026, impacting future earnings.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, UniCredit reported record net profit and return on tangible equity, primarily driven by core revenue growth and disciplined cost management. The bank achieved a net profit of EUR 3.3 billion for the quarter and EUR 6.1 billion for the first half, with core revenues growing by 1.3% year-over-year in Q2 and 1.5% in the half. Net interest income held up well despite declining interest rates, and fees increased by 3.6% in the half. Trading revenues, excluding one-offs, rose by 22% in the half. Operational efficiency improved, with costs reduced by 1.5% in Q2, leading to a cost/income ratio of less than 36%. The bank's capital efficiency also progressed, with net revenue to RWA reaching 8.8% in the quarter. Moreover, UniCredit upgraded its 2025 guidance, projecting a net profit of approximately EUR 10.5 billion and a distribution of at least EUR 9.5 billion, reflecting the robust performance and strategic initiatives such as the internalization of life insurance in Italy and the integration of Alpha Bank in Romania.

UniCredit SpA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UniCredit SpA demonstrates strong revenue growth and high profitability, with a robust net profit margin. The balance sheet shows a healthy reduction in debt, enhancing financial stability, though the low equity ratio poses a risk. Cash flow management remains a challenge, with negative free cash flow, but improvements are noted.
Income Statement
The income statement shows strong revenue growth over recent years, with a 5.3% increase from 2023 to 2024. Net profit margins are robust, at approximately 39.1% in 2024, indicating significant profitability. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA figures in 2024 limits a more comprehensive assessment of operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with a total equity of €62.44 billion in 2024, translating to an equity ratio of approximately 8%. The company has reduced its debt to zero, which enhances financial stability. However, the low equity ratio suggests a potential risk in terms of leverage despite the absence of debt.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement indicates negative free cash flow in 2024, although an improvement from the prior year. Operating cash flow remains negative, raising concerns about cash generation from core activities. However, the significant reduction in operating cash outflows from 2023 to 2024 is a positive development.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.68B23.99B22.96B18.07B22.29B11.25B
Gross Profit24.98B26.58B25.36B18.07B18.60B11.25B
EBITDA14.79B14.08B12.97B8.66B3.34B-544.00M
Net Income10.60B9.72B9.51B6.46B2.10B-2.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets860.33B784.00B784.97B857.77B916.67B931.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments41.80B41.55B72.34B134.24B162.27B165.62B
Total Debt96.02B122.72B186.12B237.23B125.91B325.23B
Total Liabilities791.91B721.16B720.73B794.28B854.58B871.51B
Stockholders Equity68.02B62.44B64.08B63.34B62.19B59.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-8.33B-41.72B9.09B-8.76B81.89B
Operating Cash Flow0.00-7.08B-41.13B10.26B-7.52B83.32B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-1.06B-787.00M-237.00M-699.00M569.00M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-10.99B-8.45B-5.55B-1.41B660.00M

UniCredit SpA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price61.58
Price Trends
50DMA
65.32
Negative
100DMA
62.31
Negative
200DMA
55.65
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.71
Positive
RSI
40.42
Neutral
STOCH
54.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:UCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.41, below the 50-day MA of 65.32, and above the 200-day MA of 55.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.71 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:UCG.

UniCredit SpA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
€18.70B8.2914.64%6.20%-0.56%2.54%
74
Outperform
$98.66B9.4116.99%3.90%27.78%12.17%
73
Outperform
€18.15B7.5716.45%8.19%2.23%72.08%
72
Outperform
€11.41B17.5532.83%3.91%2.97%4.64%
70
Outperform
€12.75B9.7311.90%6.91%-19.78%7.06%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
61
Neutral
€97.01B10.5015.91%6.22%-5.85%15.20%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IT:UCG
UniCredit SpA
61.58
23.40
61.31%
IT:BAMI
Banco BPM S.p.A.
12.06
6.54
118.74%
IT:BPE
BPER Banca S.p.A.
9.67
4.50
86.86%
IT:FBK
FinecoBank SpA
19.02
4.53
31.30%
IT:ISP
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
5.45
1.86
51.91%
IT:MB
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.
16.23
1.63
11.17%

UniCredit SpA Corporate Events

UniCredit Reports Record Profits and Strong Growth in 2025
Oct 23, 2025

UniCredit S.p.A., a leading European commercial bank, has reported a record third quarter and nine-month performance for 2025, showcasing its consistent profitable growth across its diverse business lines. The bank, headquartered in Milan, operates primarily in the financial services sector, offering a range of banking products and services across Europe.

UniCredit’s Earnings Call: Record Profits and Optimistic Outlook
Jul 25, 2025

UniCredit’s recent earnings call conveyed a generally positive sentiment, underscoring the bank’s robust financial performance marked by record net profits and improved return on tangible equity. The call highlighted significant strides in cost efficiency and strategic initiatives, despite acknowledging challenges such as the termination of the BPM transaction, the impact of declining interest rates on net interest income (NII), and geopolitical volatility. Overall, the positive developments, including upgraded guidance and strong capital generation, were emphasized as outweighing the negatives.

UniCredit S.p.A Reports Record-Breaking Financial Performance
Jul 24, 2025

UniCredit S.p.A, a prominent banking institution in Europe, operates across various financial services sectors, including retail banking, corporate banking, and wealth management, with a significant presence in Italy, Germany, and Central and Eastern Europe.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 21, 2025