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UniCredit SpA (IT:UCG)
:UCG

UniCredit SpA (UCG) AI Stock Analysis

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IT

UniCredit SpA

(OTC:UCG)

81Outperform
UniCredit SpA receives a high score due to its strong financial performance, positive earnings call, and technical strength. The company is well-positioned with impressive shareholder returns and growth potential, despite some cash flow concerns and external challenges.

UniCredit SpA (UCG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

UniCredit SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionUniCredit S.p.A. operates as a commercial bank that provides retail, corporate, and private banking services. It offers accounts and deposits, loans, cards, transactions and payments, funds, advisory, treasury, and insurance products, as well as digital and mobile banking services. The company also provides solutions for payments and liquidity, working capital, hedging, international trade, and treasury operations; and funding solutions comprising of structured, project, and commodity trade and export finance, as well as debt and equity funding; and structured investments and investments advisory solutions. In addition, the company provides corporate finance, capital structure, and rating advisory, as well as patient capital, financial sponsor solutions, and sustainable finance solutions. It servs retail, corporate, and public sector customers, as well as international companies and institutional clients. The company operates in Italy, Other European countries, America, Asia, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Unicredito Italiano S.p.A and changed its name to UniCredit S.p.A. UniCredit S.p.A. was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.
How the Company Makes MoneyUniCredit SpA generates revenue through various streams. Primarily, the bank earns income from interest on loans and advances to customers, which is a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, UniCredit makes money from fees and commissions related to services such as asset management, investment banking, and transaction processing. Trading and investment activities also contribute to its earnings, as the bank engages in securities trading and investment in financial markets. UniCredit benefits from its strategic presence across multiple European countries, allowing it to leverage local market knowledge and maintain diversified revenue streams. Furthermore, partnerships with other financial institutions and businesses enhance its product offerings and expand its customer base, thereby contributing to its overall profitability.

UniCredit SpA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
UniCredit SpA demonstrates strong revenue growth and high profitability, with a solid balance sheet showing zero debt. However, the low equity ratio and negative cash flow from operations are concerns.
Income Statement
The income statement shows strong revenue growth over recent years, with a 5.3% increase from 2023 to 2024. Net profit margins are robust, at approximately 39.1% in 2024, indicating significant profitability. However, the absence of EBIT and EBITDA figures in 2024 limits a more comprehensive assessment of operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with a total equity of €62.44 billion in 2024, translating to an equity ratio of approximately 8%. The company has reduced its debt to zero, which enhances financial stability. However, the low equity ratio suggests a potential risk in terms of leverage despite the absence of debt.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement indicates negative free cash flow in 2024, although an improvement from the prior year. Operating cash flow remains negative, raising concerns about cash generation from core activities. However, the significant reduction in operating cash outflows from 2023 to 2024 is a positive development.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
23.57B21.04B18.60B18.43B20.06B
Gross Profit
23.57B21.04B18.60B18.43B20.06B
EBIT
13.39B7.19B1.21B-2.46B4.24B
EBITDA
12.19B8.23B0.00-544.00M4.88B
Net Income Common Stockholders
9.51B6.46B1.54B-2.83B2.16B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
72.34B111.80B162.27B165.62B56.94B
Total Assets
784.97B857.77B916.67B931.46B855.65B
Total Debt
89.84B115.46B125.91B134.08B126.15B
Net Debt
28.84B-18.48B-36.35B-31.53B69.21B
Total Liabilities
720.73B794.28B854.58B871.51B793.86B
Stockholders Equity
64.08B63.34B61.63B59.51B61.42B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-42.28B9.09B-8.76B81.89B-18.39B
Operating Cash Flow
-41.13B10.26B-7.52B83.32B-16.21B
Investing Cash Flow
-787.00M-237.00M-699.00M569.00M2.81B
Financing Cash Flow
-8.45B-5.55B-1.41B660.00M-315.00M

UniCredit SpA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price51.55
Price Trends
50DMA
49.62
Positive
100DMA
45.32
Positive
200DMA
40.77
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.04
Negative
RSI
59.48
Neutral
STOCH
85.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:UCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.13, above the 50-day MA of 49.62, and above the 200-day MA of 40.77, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:UCG.

UniCredit SpA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
ITUCG
81
Outperform
$79.30B8.6715.33%4.34%4.37%11.60%
64
Neutral
$12.51B9.817.92%16985.69%12.67%-5.98%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
IT:UCG
UniCredit SpA
51.55
17.44
51.14%
GB:0RLA
Banco BPM S.p.A.
9.81
3.94
67.12%
GB:0HBC
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA
4.69
1.39
42.12%
GB:0HBF
Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario S.p.A.
18.94
5.92
45.47%
BNMDF
Banca Mediolanum SpA
15.92
5.60
54.26%

UniCredit SpA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: 12.49%|
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted UniCredit's strong financial performance, successful transformation, and record shareholder returns, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges related to Russia and interest rate pressures.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Shareholder Return
UniCredit delivered a total shareholder return of 513%, four times that of European peers, along with the best share price performance despite derating.
Strong Financial Performance
Net profit exceeded €9.7 billion for the full year, with underlying net profit reaching €10.3 billion, reflecting strong performance across all P&L lines.
Cost Efficiency Achievements
Cost-to-income ratio improved to 37.9%, with total cost reduction of around €1.7 billion despite inflationary pressures.
Capital Efficiency and Distribution
Capital efficiency improved significantly, supporting a €26 billion distribution, 65% more than the original target, while maintaining a stable CET1 ratio of 15.9%.
Successful Transformation
UniCredit completed the first phase of its transformation, 'UniCredit Unlocked,' achieving all targets and setting the stage for future growth.
Negative Updates
Impact of Russia
Net profit absorbed €1.3 billion in integration costs and legal provisions for Russia, impacting financial results.
Interest Rate Challenges
Future projections assume a decline in net interest income due to rate normalization, impacting profitability primarily in Italy.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, UniCredit provided detailed guidance across a range of financial metrics. The bank's net revenue grew by 14%, with net interest income (NII) return on allocated capital (RoAC) increasing from 4% to 19%, marking it as an industry leader. Fee income rose by 6%, contributing to 33% of total revenues, while costs were reduced by approximately €1.7 billion, despite reinvestments of around €1.4 billion into the group. The cost-to-income ratio improved to 37.9%, outperforming peers. Capital efficiency allowed for a €26 billion distribution, surpassing the initial €16 billion target, and created an excess capital reserve of €6.5 billion. UniCredit's net profit more than doubled from 2021 projections, and their return on tangible equity exceeded targets despite building excess capital. Looking forward, UniCredit aims to maintain a high-teens return on tangible equity and grow net profit, targeting €10 billion by 2027, excluding deferred tax assets. The bank also plans to distribute more than in 2024 over the next three years, reinforcing their commitment to shareholder returns.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.