IGD SIIIQ S.p.A. (IGD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €455.16M
• Dividend Yield: 2.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 141.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: -3.16%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: IT
• Employees: 139
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 110,341,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 134,484
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 141,713
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €5.25
• Price Target Upside: 27.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.4
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €135.58M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: €4.50 ▲(9.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is driven primarily by improving 2025 fundamentals (profitability rebound and better leverage), tempered by a history of volatile results and softer free-cash-flow momentum. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, but overbought signals add near-term risk; valuation is broadly average with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Profitability rebound in 2025

Net income turning positive alongside ~6.7% revenue growth in 2025 signals a durable recovery in core renting and operations. A sustained profit turnaround improves retained earnings, supports reinvestment and distributions, and strengthens the firm's ability to execute asset upgrades and development projects.

Manageable leverage and equity base

Debt at about 0.8x equity (improving versus prior years) and a substantial equity base provide balance-sheet resilience typical for a REIT. This structural leverage level reduces refinancing pressure, supports access to capital, and gives flexibility to pursue selective acquisitions or redevelopments over the medium term.

Positive cash generation

Operating cash flow increased in 2025 and free cash flow remained solid, indicating the portfolio produces real cash that can fund maintenance capex, tenant improvements and dividends. Reliable cash generation underpins long-term payout capacity and reduces dependence on external financing.

Negative Factors

Multi-year earnings volatility

A history of sharp earnings swings and multi-year losses weakens predictability of distributable income. For a REIT, volatile profitability complicates dividend planning, increases perceived risk for lenders and investors, and can force procyclical asset sales or capital raises during downturns.

Weakening free-cash-flow momentum

A roughly 19% YoY decline in free cash flow momentum reduces the cushion available for capex, tenant incentives and distributions. Persisting FCF weakness can constrain reinvestment, raise refinancing needs, and increase reliance on asset disposals or external capital to fund growth or maintain payouts.

Low and inconsistent returns on equity

ROE near ~3.2% with prior-year negatives indicates the company generates limited returns on invested capital. Structurally low ROE hampers value creation, makes equity raises dilutive or costly, and signals challenges in improving operational efficiency or tenant mix to drive sustainable shareholder returns.

IGD SIIIQ S.p.A. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Immobiliare Grande Distribuzione SIIQ S.p.A. is one of the main players in Italy's retail real estate market: it develops and manages shopping centers throughout the country and has a significant presence in Romanian retail distribution. Listed on the Star Segment of the Italian Stock Exchange, IGD was the first SIIQ (Società di Investimento Immobiliare Quotata or real estate investment trust) in Italy. IGD has a real estate portfolio valued at circa €2,322.62 million at 30 June 2020, comprised of, in Italy, 25 hypermarkets and supermarkets, 27 shopping malls and retail parks, 1 plot of land for development, 1 property held for trading and 5 other real estate properties. Following the acquisition of the company Winmark Magazine SA in 2008 14 shopping centers and an office building, found in 13 different Romanian cities, were added to the portfolio. An extensive domestic presence, a solid financial structure, the ability to plan, monitor and manage all phases of a center's life cycle, leadership in the retail real estate sector: these qualities summarize IGD's strong points.

How the Company Makes Money

IGD generates revenue primarily through rental income from its portfolio of retail properties. The company leases space to various tenants, including major retailers and food service providers, which constitutes a significant portion of its revenue stream. Additionally, IGD benefits from property management fees and income generated from ancillary services related to its shopping centers. The company also engages in asset recycling through the sale of non-core properties, which can provide capital for reinvestment in higher-yielding projects. Partnerships with retail brands and strategic collaborations enhance its market presence and contribute to stable occupancy rates, further solidifying IGD's financial performance.

IGD SIIIQ S.p.A. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

2025 shows a meaningful rebound (revenue up ~6.7% YoY and net income turning positive), with improving leverage. However, multi-year earnings volatility and declining 2025 free cash flow (~-19% YoY) limit confidence in consistency.

Income Statement

Revenue is modestly higher in 2025 (up ~6.7% year over year), and profitability rebounded sharply with positive net income in 2025 after losses in 2024 and 2023. Margins are strong in 2025 (net margin ~23% and high operating profitability), but the multi-year pattern shows material volatility (large losses in 2020–2024 and sharp swings in operating results), which reduces confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for a REIT but still meaningful: debt is roughly 0.8x equity in 2025 (improving from ~0.83x in 2024 and ~0.97x in 2023). Equity is substantial relative to the asset base, supporting balance sheet resilience; however, returns on equity are low in 2025 (~3.2%) and were negative in several prior years, indicating weaker and less consistent profitability versus the capital employed.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive: operating cash flow increased in 2025 (~€49.8M vs ~€46.5M in 2024) and free cash flow remains solid (~€23.5M). The main drawback is weakening free-cash-flow momentum in 2025 (down ~19% year over year) and mixed historical coverage versus reported earnings in prior years, suggesting cash conversion and/or working-capital timing can be uneven.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	140.79M	137.03M	148.62M	144.79M	145.53M
Gross Profit	119.96M	107.88M	112.61M	108.59M	121.50M
EBITDA	92.13M	41.29M	-28.81M	98.80M	112.96M
Net Income	32.00M	-30.08M	-81.73M	-22.32M	52.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.86B	1.85B	2.06B	2.21B	2.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.29M	4.74M	6.07M	27.07M	158.08M
Total Debt	799.87M	808.63M	974.67M	1.00B	1.14B
Total Liabilities	863.84M	883.21M	1.06B	1.09B	1.23B
Stockholders Equity	992.54M	970.27M	1.00B	1.12B	1.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.50M	27.07M	54.20M	50.29M	59.97M
Operating Cash Flow	49.76M	46.46M	77.38M	82.98M	78.68M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.22M	137.35M	-23.18M	-32.70M	95.16M
Financing Cash Flow	-37.07M	-185.14M	-75.16M	-181.33M	-133.01M

IGD SIIIQ S.p.A. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:IGD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.06, above the 50-day MA of 3.78, and above the 200-day MA of 3.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IT:IGD.

IGD SIIIQ S.p.A. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
IGD	61 Neutral	€455.16M	11.97	2.01%	2.98%	-3.16%	―
ABT	46 Neutral	€74.12M	101.43	―	―	-73.55%	-7.83%