Davide Campari-Milano SpA (CPR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €11.14B
• Dividend Yield: 1.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.05M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 3.02%
• EPS Growth: -44.69%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 5,182
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 1,231,267,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,079,004
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,050,432
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.18
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €7.07
• Price Target Upside: 16.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €3.06B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: €7.00 ▲(15.70% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance, led by strong margins and improved 2025 profitability and free cash flow, tempered by uneven revenue growth and historical cash-flow volatility. Technicals are neutral-to-mixed, and valuation is moderate with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

Sustained gross margins around 58–60% indicate durable pricing power and cost structure advantages tied to premium branded spirits. High gross margins support operating profitability, cushion against input-cost inflation, and underwrite marketing and distribution investments over the medium term.

Improving cash generation

Material improvement in operating cash flow and a sharp rise in free cash flow in 2025 enhance financial flexibility. Strong cash generation enables brand investment, selective M&A, dividends, and debt reduction, underpinning sustainable capital allocation over the coming quarters.

Diversified branded portfolio & routes-to-market

A global mix of international and local brands plus a hybrid distribution model (owned operations and third-party distributors) spreads geographic and channel risk. This diversification stabilizes revenues, supports pricing power, and preserves market access across different consumer and regional cycles.

Negative Factors

Top-line slowdown / uneven growth

A flat-to-declining revenue trend in 2025 reduces operating leverage and makes earnings less predictable. Sustained top-line weakness can force higher marketing spend to restore momentum, pressure margins if mix shifts, and limit long-term margin expansion without renewed organic growth.

Historical free cash-flow volatility

Prior periods of negative free cash flow highlight variability from working capital and capex swings. Such volatility complicates capital allocation, increases reliance on external funding in downturns, and means recent improvements may not fully eliminate medium-term cash unpredictability.

Meaningful leverage and muted ROE

Leverage remains material despite recent de-risking, which constrains financial flexibility and increases interest exposure. ROE recovery is incomplete versus prior stronger years, signalling that capital efficiency and profitability have not fully normalized and could limit shareholder returns.

Davide Campari-Milano SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Davide Campari-Milano N.V., together with its subsidiaries, markets and distributes alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages in the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It offers range of spirits categories, including aperitif, vodka, liqueurs, bitters, whisky, tequila, rum, gin, and cognac, as well as champagne and non-alcoholic aperitif under various brands, such as Aperol, Campari, SKYY, Wild Turkey, Grand Marnier, Appleton Estate, Wray & Nephew Overproof, and other brands. The company was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Sesto San Giovanni, Italy. Davide Campari-Milano N.V. is a subsidiary of Lagfin S.C.A., Société en Commandite par Actions.

How the Company Makes Money

Campari Group primarily makes money by selling branded alcoholic beverages to the trade (e.g., wholesalers, distributors, retailers, and on-trade accounts such as bars and restaurants). Revenue is generated from the volume of cases shipped and the net selling price achieved for its portfolio, typically supported by brand marketing and route-to-market execution. Key revenue streams include: - Branded spirits and liqueurs sales: The core revenue driver is the sale of its portfolio of spirits and aperitifs/liqueurs (sold as finished bottled products). Earnings are influenced by brand mix (premiumization), pricing, promotional activity, and geographic mix. - Ready-to-drink (RTD) and other packaged offerings: Where applicable within its portfolio, the company earns revenue from RTD products and other packaged formats sold through retail and on-trade channels. How value is captured in the chain: - Brand ownership and marketing: A significant portion of economic value comes from owning and building brands. Marketing investments aim to increase consumer demand, supporting pricing power and favorable mix. - Manufacturing and bottling: Campari earns gross profit by producing (or arranging production of) beverages and selling them at a markup over input costs (ingredients, packaging, production, logistics). - Distribution model: Depending on the market, Campari sells either through its own distribution organizations (capturing distributor margin where it operates direct routes to market) or via third-party distributors/importers (sharing economics with partners but gaining market access and scale). The exact split by market is not available in this response. Partnerships and other factors contributing to earnings: - Third-party distribution and route-to-market relationships: In markets where Campari relies on external distributors, these partnerships are important to reach retailers and on-trade accounts, execute promotions, and manage logistics. - Channel exposure (on-trade vs off-trade): Sales to bars/restaurants can support brand equity and cocktail visibility, while retail drives scale; shifts in channel mix can affect revenue and margins. Specific quantitative breakdowns of revenue by brand, region, or channel are null.

Davide Campari-Milano SpA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying margins and a 2025 rebound in net margin (~11.4%) and free cash flow (~€0.39B) support a solid score. However, the latest-year revenue trend is flat-to-down and cash flow has shown volatility (including weak 2023), reducing predictability. Leverage is meaningful but improving (debt-to-equity ~0.66 in 2025).

Income Statement

Profitability is solid with consistently strong gross margins (~58–60%) and healthy operating profitability, while net margin rebounded to ~11.4% in 2025 after a weaker 2024 (~6.6%). Revenue growth has been uneven: strong expansion in 2021–2023, modest growth in 2024, and essentially flat-to-down in 2025 versus 2024 (negative growth shown). Overall, earnings power looks resilient, but the recent top-line slowdown and variability in profits temper the score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable but meaningful: debt-to-equity sits around ~0.66 in 2025 (improving versus 2024) after being higher in prior years, suggesting some balance-sheet de-risking. Equity has grown over time and total assets are sizable, supporting financial flexibility. Return on equity improved to ~9.0% in 2025 from ~5.2% in 2024, but remains below the stronger 2021–2023 levels, indicating profitability and/or capital efficiency is not consistently strong.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved materially in 2024–2025: operating cash flow is strong (~€0.67–0.69B) and free cash flow rose sharply in 2025 (~€0.39B) with robust growth versus 2024. However, cash flow has been volatile historically (notably negative free cash flow in 2023), and free cash flow remains a moderate share of earnings in 2025 (about mid‑50% of net income), pointing to ongoing working-capital/capex variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.05B	3.07B	2.92B	2.70B	2.17B
Gross Profit	1.84B	1.77B	1.70B	1.59B	1.30B
EBITDA	713.90M	493.40M	647.50M	597.00M	496.60M
Net Income	346.30M	201.60M	330.50M	333.00M	284.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.11B	8.48B	6.68B	6.02B	5.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	716.90M	673.80M	634.20M	450.40M	804.80M
Total Debt	2.56B	2.86B	2.25B	1.80B	1.53B
Total Liabilities	4.25B	4.63B	3.75B	3.34B	2.72B
Stockholders Equity	3.86B	3.85B	2.93B	2.68B	2.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	388.30M	210.40M	-158.80M	25.10M	337.90M
Operating Cash Flow	687.60M	670.50M	156.50M	380.40M	483.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-157.00M	-1.60B	-281.10M	-805.90M	-153.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-477.50M	981.80M	323.00M	38.20M	-115.60M

Davide Campari-Milano SpA Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:CPR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.34, below the 50-day MA of 6.16, and above the 200-day MA of 5.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:CPR.

Davide Campari-Milano SpA Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPR	68 Neutral	€11.14B	19.18	5.02%	1.19%	3.02%	-44.69%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
VLS	61 Neutral	€111.61M	14.76	9.28%	3.53%	2.66%	9.72%
ORS	60 Neutral	€253.19M	11.68	12.31%	2.76%	10.37%	24.91%