Ariston Holding NV (ARIS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €1.27B
• Dividend Yield: 1.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 231.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: -7.48%
• EPS Growth: 62.04%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 9,947
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Business Equipment & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 125,505,005
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 210,029
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 231,756
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €4.70
• Price Target Upside: 4.91% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.39
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €2.89B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: €4.00 ▼(-10.71% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/11/26

The score is held back mainly by weak technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD), despite oversold signals. Financials are generally solid but penalized for recent earnings and free-cash-flow volatility. Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E and modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Diversified distribution footprint

A broad, multi-channel distribution model (installers, wholesalers, retail) and global footprint support durable revenue access across markets and customer types. This reduces reliance on any single channel, helps aftermarket parts/services sales, and strengthens resilience to regional demand swings over months.

Long-term revenue growth and recovery ability

Sustained long-term revenue growth and demonstrated recovery after a down year indicate underlying demand and product-market fit. Consistent operating cash flow shows core business profitability, enabling reinvestment and supporting operations even if cyclical headwinds recur over a 2–6 month horizon.

Improved leverage and operating cash generation

Reduced leverage to about half of equity improves financial flexibility and lowers refinancing risk, while consistently positive operating cash flow supports debt service and capex. Together these structural improvements increase the company's ability to fund growth and withstand near-term volatility.

Negative Factors

Profitability volatility

Material swings in revenue and profitability (sharp 2024 drop, rebound in 2025) indicate earnings are cyclical and less predictable. This volatility undermines planning, capital allocation, and investor visibility, and raises the risk that midterm margins may compress if adverse demand or input-cost shocks recur.

Choppy free cash flow

Irregular free cash flow from year-to-year, with a material step-down in 2025, signals working-capital swings or lumpy investments that limit predictable cash available for dividends, debt reduction, or strategic M&A. Persistent FCF volatility weakens funding reliability over months.

Returns lag historic levels

Although ROE improved from its 2024 trough, it remains below earlier multi-year levels, implying lower capital efficiency or margin pressure. If structural profitability does not normalize, the company may struggle to generate the same shareholder returns or justify reinvestment intensity over the medium term.

Ariston Holding NV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ariston Holding N.V., through its subsidiaries, produces and distributes hot water and space heating solutions for commercial and residential use worldwide. The company operates in three divisions: Thermal Comfort, Burners, and Components. It offers water heating products, such as heat pumps, gas storage and gas instant water heaters, cylinders, solar, and electric storage and electric instant water heaters; space heating products comprising boilers, heat pumps, hybrid systems, air conditioning products, thermostats, and direct services and parts; and domestic heat-recovery ventilation, air handling, and combined heat and power services. The company also provides burners and components. It offers its products under the Ariston, Elco, Chaffoteaux, Racold, Calorex, NTI, HTP, ATAG, Thermowatt, Cuenod, and Ecoflam brands. Ariston Holding N.V. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy. Ariston Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of Merloni Holding S.P.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Ariston Holding N.V. makes money primarily by selling heating and hot-water equipment and related solutions to distribution partners and end-market channels. Its core revenue stream is product revenue from the sale of equipment (e.g., water heating and space heating systems) across residential and commercial applications, typically recognized when products are delivered to customers under contractual terms. A secondary revenue stream is generated from services and spare parts tied to the installed base (e.g., replacement components and after-sales support), which can provide recurring revenue over time as equipment requires maintenance and periodic replacement. Earnings are influenced by the scale of its distribution footprint (wholesalers, installers, and retail), the breadth of its product portfolio, and demand cycles in housing, renovation, and commercial construction markets; specific significant partnerships or customer concentration details are null.

Ariston Holding NV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Long-term revenue growth and consistently positive operating cash flow are positives, and leverage improved in 2025. However, profitability has been volatile (notably the 2024 profit collapse) and free cash flow was choppy with a material step-down in 2025, weakening earnings/cash-flow reliability.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the long run (2021–2025), but the path has been volatile with a sharp drop in 2024 before a rebound in 2025. Profitability also swung meaningfully: 2024 was near break-even, while 2025 recovered to a mid-single-digit net margin and improved operating profitability versus 2024, though still below the stronger 2022–2023 levels. Overall, the company shows it can generate solid profits in good years, but earnings stability is a key weakness.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt around half of equity in 2025 and improved versus the higher leverage seen in 2022–2024. Equity is sizable relative to the asset base, and returns on equity recovered in 2025 after collapsing in 2024, but still trail the stronger returns posted in 2020–2023. The main risk is that balance sheet strength is tied to profitability remaining normalized, given the recent earnings volatility.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive across years and remained solid in 2025, supporting ongoing debt service and investment needs. However, free cash flow declined materially in 2025 versus 2024, and free cash flow has been choppy over the period, suggesting working-capital or investment swings. Cash generation relative to accounting earnings is moderate rather than outstanding, so cash flow quality is acceptable but not a clear strength.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.71B	2.68B	3.15B	2.42B	1.99B
Gross Profit	1.24B	993.50M	1.28B	765.10M	674.00M
EBITDA	307.40M	202.30M	420.80M	286.70M	250.30M
Net Income	132.40M	2.50M	191.20M	140.30M	136.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.58B	3.57B	3.87B	2.88B	2.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	248.50M	369.20M	456.40M	1.01B	689.70M
Total Debt	781.80M	901.40M	1.02B	932.70M	492.30M
Total Liabilities	2.06B	2.14B	2.37B	1.87B	1.44B
Stockholders Equity	1.52B	1.43B	1.50B	1.01B	878.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.70M	190.70M	144.90M	52.30M	112.60M
Operating Cash Flow	303.30M	306.50M	303.50M	130.90M	190.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-166.50M	-134.60M	-709.90M	-133.80M	-84.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-234.10M	-264.30M	-123.40M	322.10M	101.90M

Ariston Holding NV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:ARIS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.15, below the 50-day MA of 4.60, and above the 200-day MA of 4.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.47 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:ARIS.

Ariston Holding NV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SOL	73 Outperform	€4.63B	13.16	15.43%	0.80%	11.37%	10.82%
A2A	64 Neutral	€7.22B	9.65	13.08%	4.37%	8.61%	-22.69%
ACE	64 Neutral	€4.62B	9.79	14.57%	4.33%	-26.96%	25.00%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
IRE	61 Neutral	€3.14B	23.79	9.06%	5.06%	10.48%	9.06%
ARIS	57 Neutral	€1.27B	11.81	―	1.77%	-7.48%	62.04%

Ariston Holding NV Corporate Events

Ariston Lifts Treasury Stake with March Share Buybacks

Ariston Holding N.V. reported that it repurchased 359,431 ordinary shares on the market between 2 and 6 March 2026, equal to 0.2435% of its outstanding ordinary shares and 0.0965% of total share capital, for a total outlay of about €1.52 million at an average price of €4.2375. Following these transactions, Ariston holds 5,171,241 treasury shares, or 3.5035% of its ordinary shares, as it continues a buyback programme mandated to Mediobanca and designed to service current and future long‑term incentive plans for group employees and management, modestly increasing capital flexibility and potential earnings per share for existing investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston lifts profits on heat pump demand and efficiency gains, targets further margin growth in 2026

Ariston Group reported 2025 net revenues of €2.71 billion, up 3% organically, driven by solid European demand and particularly strong growth in heating heat pumps in Germany. The thermal comfort division remained the core contributor, while adjusted EBIT jumped 20.6% to €193 million, lifting the yearly margin to 7.1% and Q4 margin to 10.5% on the back of operating leverage and efficiency measures despite stepped-up investments.

Free cash flow slipped to €125 million as the company accelerated strategic investments to boost growth and competitiveness, yet net financial debt improved to €574 million and the board proposed a dividend of €0.10 per share, equal to one-third of adjusted net profit. For 2026, Ariston guides to organic revenue growth of 1%–4% and an adjusted EBIT margin of 7%–8%, underpinned by an expected recovery in European heating demand, continued momentum in hot water, and ongoing investment in products, digitalization and R&D to cement its position in low-carbon climate and water comfort solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston expands treasury stock under ongoing share buyback program

Ariston Holding N.V. reported that it repurchased 3,429 ordinary shares on the market between 23 and 27 February 2026, equal to 0.0023% of its outstanding ordinary shares, for a total outlay of about €17,200 at an average price of €5.02. Following these transactions, Ariston holds 4,811,810 treasury shares, representing 3.26% of its ordinary shares and 1.2914% of its total share capital.

The buybacks form part of a wider program launched in November 2025, under which Mediobanca S.p.A. has been mandated to acquire up to 1,000,000 Ariston shares by May 2027 in line with EU market rules. The program is designed to service existing and future long-term incentive plans for employees and management across the Ariston Group, reinforcing equity-linked compensation while incrementally concentrating ownership among remaining investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston Adds to Treasury Stock with Modest Share Buyback for Incentive Plans

Ariston Holding N.V. repurchased 9,321 ordinary shares between 16 and 20 February 2026 under its ongoing buyback programme, at an average price of €5.1952 for a total outlay of about €48,400. Following these transactions, the company holds 4,808,381 treasury shares, equivalent to 3.2577% of issued ordinary shares and 1.2905% of total share capital.

The buyback is part of a mandate granted to Mediobanca to acquire up to 1 million shares by May 2027 and is aimed at servicing current and future long-term incentive plans for employees and management. The continued execution of the programme underscores Ariston’s commitment to equity-based compensation, while slightly increasing its treasury stock position without materially altering its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston Continues Share Buyback to Fund Long‑Term Incentive Plans

Ariston Holding N.V. has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing 19,405 ordinary shares on the market between 2 and 6 February 2026 at an average price of €4.83 per share, for a total outlay of about €93,700. The purchases, carried out under a mandate granted to Mediobanca, lift the company’s treasury stock to 4,793,617 shares, or roughly 3.25% of its outstanding ordinary shares, and are intended to serve existing and future long‑term incentive plans for employees and members of the management and administrative bodies across the Ariston Group, reinforcing equity‑based remuneration structures without materially altering the company’s capital structure at this stage.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston Buys Back 21,445 Shares to Support Long-Term Incentive Plans

Ariston Holding N.V. has continued to execute its share buyback programme, repurchasing 21,445 ordinary shares between 26 and 30 January 2026 for a total consideration of €101,817.46 at an average price of €4.7478 per share. Following these transactions, the company now holds 4,774,212 treasury shares, representing 3.2346% of its issued ordinary shares and 1.2813% of its total share capital. The ongoing buyback, managed by Mediobanca under a mandate to acquire up to 1,000,000 shares by May 2027, is aimed at servicing existing and future long-term incentive plans for employees and management across the Ariston Group, underlining the company’s continued use of equity-based remuneration and active capital management.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Hold with a EUR5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston Sets 2026 Financial Calendar and Signals Possible May Dividend

Ariston Holding N.V. has published its 2026 corporate events calendar, detailing the timing of key governance and financial disclosure milestones for the year. The Board of Directors will review and approve the 2025 separate and consolidated financial statements on 3 March 2026, followed by the Annual General Meeting to adopt the 2025 financial statements on 5 May. Additional periodic financial information, including revenue by division and key profitability and cash flow metrics, will be examined on 6 May and 4 November for the first and third quarters, respectively, while the 2026 half-year report is scheduled for approval on 29 July. The company also indicates that any dividend related to 2025 results, if approved, is expected to be paid in May 2026, and it has scheduled analyst and investor conference calls around each major disclosure, underscoring its commitment to regular, transparent communication with the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston Continues Share Buyback to Support Long-Term Incentive Plans

Ariston Holding N.V. repurchased 23,920 ordinary shares on the market between 15 and 19 December 2025 under its ongoing share buyback programme, representing 0.0162% of its outstanding ordinary shares and 0.0064% of total share capital, for a total consideration of €106,361.28 at an average price of €4.4465 per share. Following these transactions, Ariston now holds 4,634,120 own shares, equal to 3.1396% of issued ordinary shares and 1.2437% of total share capital, as it continues executing a mandate granted to Mediobanca S.p.A. to acquire up to 1 million shares by May 2027 to meet obligations under existing and future long-term incentive plans for employees and members of management, signalling ongoing use of equity-based remuneration and a disciplined capital management approach.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.

Ariston Acquires Riello to Boost Climate Comfort and Combustion Expertise

Ariston Holding NV has announced the acquisition of Riello Group, a renowned player in climate comfort and combustion technologies. This strategic move is expected to enhance Ariston’s role in Italy’s climate comfort sector and expand its global expertise in combustion technologies. The acquisition will provide Ariston with access to complementary sales channels and product lines, strengthening its presence in North America and expanding its product portfolio for commercial and industrial segments. The deal, valued at 289 million euros, is anticipated to unlock significant value creation through technological synergies and enhanced market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:ARIS) stock is a Buy with a EUR4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ariston Holding NV stock, see the IT:ARIS Stock Forecast page.