Tirupati Forge Ltd. (TIRUPATIFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ₹4.24B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 236.01K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 76.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: -0.94%
• EPS Growth: -48.46%
• Country: IN
• Employees: 92
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
• EPS (TTM): 0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 118,280,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 455,270
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 236,011
• PEG Ratio: 2.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.76
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: ₹36.00 ▲(14.87% Upside)

The score is primarily supported by improving financial performance (growth and margin expansion with better leverage), but is held back by weak cash-flow quality (negative free cash flow). Technically, the trend is positive, yet overbought signals add pullback risk, and valuation is a major headwind due to the very high P/E.

Positive Factors

Revenue & margin expansion

Sustained top-line expansion alongside a large gross‑margin improvement indicates durable operational improvements and pricing or cost advantages. Higher margins create structural room for reinvestment, buffer downturns, and support persistent profit generation over the next 2–6 months.

Improving capital structure

Meaningfully lower leverage and a higher equity ratio reduce solvency and refinancing risk, improving financial resilience. This stronger balance sheet enhances access to funding and gives management latitude for capex or opportunistic investments over the medium term.

Cash generation linkage

A measurable conversion of accounting income into operating cash indicates the core fabrication business can generate cash from operations. Over months, reliable cash conversion supports working capital needs and reduces dependence on short‑term external liquidity.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow

Persistent negative free cash flow constrains the firm's ability to self‑fund growth, capex, and dividends, forcing reliance on debt or equity. Over a 2–6 month horizon this limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing and liquidity risk if operating cash slips.

Earnings volatility

A large negative EPS growth rate signals earnings instability and potential one‑off pressures or margin reversion. Volatile reported profits make forecasting and capital allocation harder, increasing execution risk and uncertainty for sustaining recent margin gains.

Remaining debt exposure

Despite improved ratios, a material absolute debt stock leaves the company exposed to interest costs and refinancing risk. If cash generation weakens, servicing this debt could crowd out investment and elevate default or covenant stress over the medium term.

Tirupati Forge Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tirupati Forge Limited manufactures and sells carbon steel forged flanges, and forged and other automotive components in India. The company provides slip-on, weld-neck, blind, lap-joint, threaded, and socket weld flanges; and din, conical, and plate flanges. It also offers auto parts, bearings, gears, crank shafts, hammer unions, forged pipe fittings, and seamless rolled rings. The company offers its products under the Tirupati brand name. It exports its forging products to the United States, as well as European and African countries. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Rajkot, India.

How the Company Makes Money

Tirupati Forge Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of forged components and assemblies. The company operates on a business-to-business (B2B) model, supplying its products to OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) and Tier suppliers across various industries. Key revenue streams include direct sales of forged products, contracts for custom forging solutions, and long-term supply agreements with major industrial players. Additionally, strategic partnerships with companies in complementary sectors help expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, contributing to overall earnings. The company also invests in technology and efficiency improvements, which can lead to cost savings and increased profitability.

Tirupati Forge Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and improving profitability (higher gross and net margins) support the score, and leverage metrics improved (lower debt-to-equity, higher equity ratio). The main constraint is cash-flow quality: operating cash flow volatility and persistently negative free cash flow raise sustainability and reinvestment risk.

Income Statement

The company shows solid revenue growth, increasing from 267.7M in 2021 to 1.15B in 2025. The gross profit margin improved substantially from 13.8% in 2021 to 42.4% in 2025, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin also rose from 1.5% to 6.8% during the same period. However, there is room for improvement in EBIT and EBITDA margins, although they have increased, signaling enhanced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 0.37 in 2021 to 0.24 in 2025, reflecting reduced financial leverage and a stronger equity position. The equity ratio improved from 62% to 73%, indicating a solid capital structure. However, the company's total debt remains significant, which poses a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow decreased significantly from 33.4M in 2020 to 58.5M in 2025, indicating volatility in cash generation. Free cash flow remains negative, which is concerning for ongoing financial health. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio shows the company's ability to convert income into cash. The company needs to improve its free cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.18B	1.15B	1.09B	910.80M	789.92M	267.73M
Gross Profit	511.87M	380.53M	145.79M	181.07M	203.12M	24.11M
EBITDA	159.63M	165.33M	133.89M	161.20M	113.87M	27.39M
Net Income	66.64M	78.55M	66.42M	94.29M	62.23M	3.94M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	0.00	1.46B	743.01M	512.85M	524.61M	336.94M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	331.29M	332.01M	44.90M	927.00K	8.63M	1.14M
Total Debt	0.00	261.95M	131.37M	101.05M	110.47M	76.05M
Total Liabilities	-1.07B	388.68M	243.85M	150.46M	256.51M	129.32M
Stockholders Equity	1.07B	1.07B	499.16M	362.38M	268.10M	207.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-326.31M	-48.99M	-3.58M	-28.08M	-59.73M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	58.55M	103.06M	35.23M	3.81M	-30.20M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-379.99M	-147.02M	-33.42M	-28.95M	-27.88M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	607.82M	87.93M	-9.42M	24.17M	51.27M

Tirupati Forge Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IN:TIRUPATIFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.82, below the 50-day MA of 34.20, and below the 200-day MA of 37.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IN:TIRUPATIFL.

Tirupati Forge Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OCCL	67 Neutral	₹1.25B	11.66	―	10.99%	-76.65%	-76.77%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TIRUPATIFL	60 Neutral	₹4.24B	76.81	―	―	-0.94%	-48.46%
MODIRUBBER	57 Neutral	₹3.23B	19.20	―	―	31.62%	-23.04%
HPAL	56 Neutral	₹3.57B	21.87	―	0.94%	13.33%	-21.39%