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China Vanke Co Ltd (HK:2202)
:2202

China Vanke Co (2202) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:2202

China Vanke Co

(2202)

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Underperform 40 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:40Underperform
Price Target:
HK$3.00
▼(-10.98% Downside)
The score is primarily driven by weak financial performance—heavy losses, rising leverage, and negative TTM cash flows—followed by a clearly bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation does not offset these risks because the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses and there is no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strategic Financial Support
The substantial loan from Shenzhen Metro Group provides China Vanke with significant financial support, enhancing liquidity and stability, which is crucial for managing debt obligations and sustaining operations in a challenging real estate market.
Leadership Stability
The appointment of a new chairman with extensive experience ensures leadership stability and continuity in strategic direction, which is vital for navigating the current market challenges and maintaining stakeholder confidence.
Debt Management Efforts
By adjusting repayment terms and extending grace periods, China Vanke demonstrates proactive debt management, which is essential for maintaining financial stability and investor trust in a volatile market environment.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
A significant decline in revenue indicates challenges in market demand and competitive pressures, which could impact the company's ability to sustain operations and growth in the long term.
Rising Losses
Increasing losses highlight deteriorating profitability, which may strain financial resources and hinder the company's capacity to invest in growth opportunities or manage debt effectively.
Elevated Leverage
High leverage levels increase financial risk and reduce flexibility, potentially limiting the company's ability to respond to market changes or invest in strategic initiatives until profitability improves.

China Vanke Co (2202) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

China Vanke Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChina Vanke Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and sale of properties in the Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. The company operates through Property Development and Property Management segments. It develops residential buildings, commercial offices, and other ancillary facilities. The company also provides property management and related services to purchasers and tenants of its own developed residential properties, shopping arcades, and office buildings, as well as to properties developed by external property developers; and undertakes construction contracts. In addition, it is involved in logistics and warehousing, hotel and resort, education, and housing rental businesses. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyChina Vanke generates revenue primarily through the development and sale of residential properties, which constitutes the core of its business model. The company acquires land at strategic locations, develops it into residential and commercial real estate, and sells these properties to individuals and investors. Besides property sales, China Vanke earns income from property management services, which include maintenance and operation of residential communities and commercial spaces. Additionally, the company is expanding into other business areas such as logistics and warehousing, which provide supplementary revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with local governments and other real estate firms also play a significant role in enhancing its market presence and financial performance.

China Vanke Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
China Vanke Co faces challenges with declining revenues and profitability margins, coupled with high leverage. The absence of certain financial metrics in 2024, such as EBIT and EBITDA, limits a full operational assessment. While the balance sheet shows stability in equity, the cash flow metrics suggest difficulties in cash generation.
Income Statement
China Vanke Co has shown volatility in revenue with a decline in 2024 compared to prior years. The gross profit margin has decreased from 2020, indicating pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are not available for 2024, making it difficult to assess operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which can be risky. However, the equity ratio is somewhat stable, reflecting a moderate level of shareholder equity in the asset structure. Return on equity has deteriorated due to declining net income.
Cash Flow
Operating cash flows have remained low compared to previous years, and free cash flow data is missing, hindering a comprehensive analysis of cash flow health. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in converting income to cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue288.40B343.18B465.74B503.84B452.80B419.11B
Gross Profit18.44B34.91B67.47B98.52B98.82B122.57B
EBITDA-22.28B-44.74B43.73B55.55B67.04B94.43B
Net Income-29.50B-49.48B12.16B37.55B38.07B59.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.24T1.29T1.50T1.76T1.94T1.87T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments71.78B88.34B99.83B137.23B149.37B195.40B
Total Debt387.39B235.87B278.34B339.71B294.00B285.78B
Total Liabilities913.26B947.41B1.10T1.35T1.55T1.52T
Stockholders Equity192.10B202.67B250.78B242.69B235.95B224.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-674.53M-719.76M45.98B
Operating Cash Flow-6.14B3.80B3.91B2.75B4.11B53.19B
Investing Cash Flow7.95B10.81B-4.62B5.80B
Financing Cash Flow-20.89B-27.67B-36.81B3.44B

China Vanke Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3.37
Price Trends
50DMA
3.79
Negative
100DMA
4.52
Negative
200DMA
4.89
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
40.57
Neutral
STOCH
51.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2202, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.46, below the 50-day MA of 3.79, and below the 200-day MA of 4.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2202.

China Vanke Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
HK$147.34B12.972.92%4.33%9.72%-26.47%
68
Neutral
HK$142.50B9.493.63%4.54%-9.54%-38.16%
67
Neutral
HK$101.96B23.772.41%5.62%-0.48%-13.78%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
62
Neutral
HK$64.12B7.484.81%3.96%-16.02%-30.04%
42
Neutral
HK$10.60B-0.24-19.37%72.77%
40
Underperform
$61.52B-0.62-23.88%-28.36%-206.13%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:2202
China Vanke Co
3.38
-1.59
-31.99%
HK:0688
China Overseas Land & Investment
13.05
1.23
10.42%
HK:1113
CK Asset Holdings
42.64
12.80
42.91%
HK:2007
Country Garden Holdings
0.37
-0.12
-24.74%
HK:0960
Longfor Group Holdings
9.15
-0.04
-0.41%
HK:0083
Sino Land Co
11.17
3.99
55.59%

China Vanke Co Corporate Events

China Vanke Executive Director Yu Liang Resigns Upon Reaching Retirement Age
Jan 8, 2026

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has announced that executive director and executive vice president Mr. Yu Liang has resigned effective 8 January 2026 upon reaching the company’s retirement age, and he will no longer hold any position within the group. The board stated that Yu, who holds 7,394,945 A-shares in the company, has no disagreements with the board and that his departure will not affect board quorum or the company’s normal operations, with a by-election to appoint new director(s) to be carried out in accordance with legal procedures in due course.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Sets Out Composition and Roles of 20th Board of Directors
Jan 8, 2026

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has announced the composition of its 20th board of directors, confirming a total of eight directors, including non-executive, executive and independent non-executive members, reflecting a governance structure aligned with Hong Kong listing requirements and corporate best practices in the property sector. The company detailed the roles and functions of each director and the membership of three specialised board committees—Audit, Remuneration and Nomination, and Investment and Decision-making—signalling an emphasis on oversight, remuneration governance and investment decisions at a time when board composition and independence are closely scrutinised by investors and regulators in China’s real estate industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Responds to 2025 Bondholders’ Resolutions on Fifth-Tranche Medium-Term Notes
Dec 28, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has issued an announcement responding to resolutions passed at the first 2025 bondholders’ meeting for its 2022 fifth-tranche medium-term notes, which carry a remaining balance of RMB 370 million and have a principal repayment date of 28 December 2025. The meeting, convened off-site by Bank of Communications on 22 December 2025 via an online post-issuance service platform and Tencent Meeting, reflects ongoing engagement between Vanke and its noteholders over the management and servicing of this onshore debt, underscoring the company’s efforts to address investor concerns and maintain orderly financing arrangements in the domestic bond market.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$2.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Adjusts Repayment Terms on 2022 Fifth Tranche Medium-Term Notes
Dec 28, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has announced adjustments to the repayment arrangements for its 2022 fifth tranche medium-term notes (bond abbreviation: 22 Vanke MTN005, bond code: 102282785), originally issued in a total amount of RMB 3.7 billion with interest commencing on 28 December 2022. The company is extending the grace period and setting out measures to ensure the orderly payment of interest and principal on this note, a move that underscores its efforts to manage near-term liquidity and maintain stability in its onshore debt structure for bondholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$2.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Responds to Resolutions from Second 2025 Holders’ Meeting on 22 Vanke MTN004
Dec 22, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has issued an overseas regulatory announcement detailing its response to resolutions passed at the second 2025 holders’ meeting for its 2022 fourth-tranche medium-term notes, known as 22 Vanke MTN004. The meeting, convened offsite on 18 December 2025 by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank via an online post-issuance service platform and Tencent Meeting, concerned a bond with principal repayment due on 15 December 2025 and an outstanding balance of 2,000,000. The company’s disclosure underscores ongoing engagement with noteholders and adherence to regulatory and bondholder communication requirements in the context of its onshore debt management.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$2.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Adjusts Grace Period and Repayment Plan for 2022 Fourth-Tranche Medium-Term Notes
Dec 22, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has announced arrangements concerning its 2022 fourth-tranche medium-term notes, identified as 22 Vanke MTN004 with a bond code of 102282715 and a total issuance size of RMB 2 billion, including an extension of the grace period and a plan for the payment of principal and interest. The move is aimed at ensuring the orderly servicing and redemption of this onshore debt instrument, signaling the company’s efforts to manage near‑term liquidity and maintain stability in its bond repayment schedule, an issue closely watched by creditors and other stakeholders amid ongoing stress in China’s property financing markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$2.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Co. Announces Repayment Arrangements for 2022 Medium-Term Notes
Dec 15, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. announced the arrangement for the repayment of principal and interest during the grace period for its medium-term notes issued in 2022, specifically the fourth tranche. This announcement ensures the smooth progress of interest payment and redemption for these notes, reflecting the company’s commitment to maintaining its financial obligations and potentially impacting its credit standing positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$2.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Announces Resolution from 2025 Holders’ Meeting
Dec 15, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. announced the resolution from its first holders’ meeting of 2025 concerning the medium-term notes issued in 2022, fourth tranche. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its financial instruments and maintain transparency with stakeholders, potentially impacting its financial strategy and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Sell with a HK$2.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Holds First Extraordinary General Meeting of 2025
Nov 20, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. held its first extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of 2025, where both on-site and online voting were utilized. The meeting was compliant with relevant laws and regulations, and a substantial shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, abstained from voting due to a material interest in a related agreement. The EGM saw participation from various shareholders, with a significant portion of shares represented in the voting process.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Announces Arrangements for 2025 EGM Attendance
Nov 12, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has issued an announcement regarding the arrangements for H Shareholders to attend the first extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of 2025. The company recommends that H Shareholders or their proxies register their contact information at least 24 hours prior to the EGM for better service. Shareholders can also submit proxy forms to appoint representatives to attend and vote at the EGM. These recommendations aim to facilitate smooth participation without affecting the rights of shareholders to attend and vote.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Secures Substantial Shareholder Loan to Manage Debt
Nov 11, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has announced a board resolution approving a shareholder’s loan from its substantial shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group Co., Ltd., amounting to up to RMB1,666 million. This loan is intended to repay the principal and accrued interest on bonds issued by the company in the open market. The loan, which has a term not exceeding three years, features an interest rate based on the 1-year Loan Prime Rate with a floating point adjustment. This financial arrangement is expected to aid China Vanke in managing its debt obligations, potentially strengthening its financial stability and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Announces 2025 First Extraordinary General Meeting
Nov 4, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has announced the convening of its 2025 first extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to be held on November 20, 2025, in Shenzhen, PRC. The meeting will address key resolutions including the approval and ratification of a Loan Framework Agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group and the associated transactions. This development signifies a strategic financial collaboration that could potentially enhance Vanke’s operational capabilities and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Secures RMB22 Billion Loan from Shenzhen Metro Group
Nov 2, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has entered into a Loan Framework Agreement with its substantial shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, for a loan of up to RMB22 billion. This agreement, which involves both unsecured and secured loans, is classified as a continuing connected transaction under Hong Kong’s Listing Rules, requiring independent shareholder approval. An Independent Board Committee and Financial Advisor have been appointed to assess the fairness and reasonableness of the terms. The agreement is expected to impact the company’s financial operations and requires shareholder approval at an upcoming extraordinary general meeting (EGM).

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Approves Q3 Financials and Impairment Adjustments
Oct 30, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. held its twenty-sixth board meeting to approve the 2025 Third Quarterly Report and financial statements, as well as the recognition and write-off of impairment provisions for the third quarter. The company recognized new impairment provisions totaling RMB9,367.9452 million, primarily due to changes in consolidation scope, and reversed or wrote off RMB1,708.2637 million. These financial adjustments reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its asset value effectively, impacting its financial health and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Reports Significant Financial Decline in Q3 2025
Oct 30, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has released its unaudited quarterly report for the third quarter of 2025, revealing a significant decline in financial performance. The company reported a 26.61% decrease in revenue and a 56.14% increase in losses attributable to shareholders compared to the same period last year. The report highlights challenges in the real estate market, impacting the company’s operations and financial health, with a notable decrease in total assets and equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Secures Substantial Loan from Major Shareholder
Oct 30, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. announced that its board of directors has approved a shareholder’s loan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, amounting to up to RMB2,200 million. This loan is intended to help the company repay the principal and accrued interest on bonds issued in the open market. The loan has a term of up to three years with an interest rate based on the 1-year Loan Prime Rate minus 66 basis points. The arrangement reflects a strategic financial maneuver to manage debt obligations and could enhance the company’s liquidity position, potentially impacting its market standing and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

China Vanke Schedules Board Meeting to Review Quarterly Results
Oct 17, 2025

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for October 30, 2025, to review and approve its quarterly financial results for the periods ending September 30, 2025. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2202) stock is a Hold with a HK$5.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Vanke Co stock, see the HK:2202 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025