China New City Commercial Development Ltd (1321) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$1.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 595.67K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.4
• Beta (1Y): -0.25
• Revenue Growth: -54.44%
• EPS Growth: 120.18%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 1,232
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 1,844,023,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,130,000
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 595,666
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.29
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$0.59 ▲(0.17% Upside)

The overall stock score of 61 reflects the company's recent financial improvements and moderate valuation. However, the bearish technical indicators and lack of dividend yield present challenges. The financial performance is the most significant factor, indicating a positive trajectory, but technical analysis and valuation suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Revenue and Profit Recovery

A material rebound in revenue and net income supports durable cash generation and reinvestment into new developments. Sustained top-line recovery strengthens leasing and sales pipelines, reduces reliance on external financing for projects, and enhances long-term project viability.

Improved Cash Flow and FCF

Recovery in operating cash flow and free cash flow improves liquidity for capex, development cycles, and debt servicing. Better cash conversion increases financial flexibility over months, lowering refinancing risk and enabling selective investment in higher-return commercial projects.

Solid Equity Base and Manageable Leverage

An improving equity base and moderate leverage provide a structural cushion against cyclical property downturns. Manageable debt levels support continued development activity and partnerships without immediate pressure to deleverage, preserving strategic optionality.

Negative Factors

Historical Revenue Volatility

Large historical swings in revenue highlight demand and execution sensitivity in the development cycle. This volatility hampers reliable cash flow forecasting, complicates long-term financing and lease roll strategies, and raises execution risk across multi-year projects.

Prior Negative Free Cash Flow Periods

Episodes of negative free cash flow reveal structural timing risk between construction outlays and stabilized leasing or sales. Even with recent recovery, project-driven cash swings can force reliance on external funding during downturns, increasing financing cost and execution risk.

Lack of Dividend Yield

No dividend reduces appeal to yield-seeking long-term investors and concentrates returns on capital gains. For a mature commercial property developer, withholding distributions signals prioritization of reinvestment over income returns, potentially narrowing investor base and scrutiny on capital allocation.

China New City Commercial Development Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China New City Commercial Development Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the commercial property development, leasing, and hotel operations in Mainland China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Commercial Property Development, Property Rental, Hotel Operations, and Others. It develops, owns, operates, and sells integrated commercial complexes in sub-city centers of second-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. The company also leases investment properties, including offices and shopping malls; and provides property, project, health, and theatre management services, as well as education development services. In addition, it owns and operates four hotels, which include the Holiday Inn Hangzhou Xiaoshan, the Qiandao Lake Bright Resort Hotel, the Ningbo Bright Hotel, and the Huaibei Bright Hotel. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China. China New City Commercial Development Limited is a subsidiary of Ideal World Investments Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

China New City Commercial Development Ltd generates revenue primarily through the leasing and sale of commercial properties. The company earns rental income from tenants occupying its developed retail spaces and offices, which is a significant revenue stream. Additionally, the company profits from property sales, either through direct sales of completed developments or through joint ventures with other real estate firms. The company may also engage in property management services, receiving fees for managing properties on behalf of third parties. Strategic partnerships with local governments and other businesses can enhance its project pipeline and contribute to its earnings by facilitating access to prime development sites and resources.

China New City Commercial Development Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China New City Commercial Development Ltd exhibits significant recent financial improvements across income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth and profit recovery, coupled with enhanced cash flow management. While historical volatility remains a concern, the current trajectory is positive, reflecting a stabilizing and improving financial position.

Income Statement

The company demonstrated strong revenue growth with a remarkable jump in total revenue from 2023 to 2024, leading to significant improvements in both gross profit and net income. The gross profit margin improved substantially, reflecting effective cost management. However, historical volatility in EBIT and net income margins indicates potential stability concerns, though recent trends are positive.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a solid equity base with improving stockholders' equity levels. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, suggesting manageable leverage. Though the company's equity ratio improved, historical fluctuations in total assets and liabilities highlight potential risks. The overall financial position has stabilized with recent improvements.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates a strong recovery in free cash flow, supported by robust operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but previous periods showed negative free cash flow, highlighting past challenges. The company's recent cash flow management improvements provide a positive outlook.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.55B	4.10B	1.30B	591.78M	871.07M	700.37M
Gross Profit	556.70M	2.06B	368.10M	117.37M	216.50M	170.16M
EBITDA	-101.21M	1.37B	-225.16M	-138.56M	-103.22M	-94.74M
Net Income	90.60M	503.91M	-404.14M	-432.52M	-295.14M	44.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.28B	13.39B	13.53B	15.18B	15.50B	15.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	208.68M	839.04M	181.19M	968.25M	1.60B	994.23M
Total Debt	4.52B	3.43B	3.26B	4.19B	4.80B	5.82B
Total Liabilities	8.02B	8.04B	8.69B	9.87B	9.77B	9.10B
Stockholders Equity	5.19B	5.27B	4.75B	5.10B	5.50B	5.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	8.29M	1.05B	613.04M	-333.21M	694.08M	-863.17M
Operating Cash Flow	59.46M	1.09B	683.94M	-214.66M	813.02M	-800.86M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.13B	-410.66M	-120.79M	261.90M	447.90M	507.44M
Financing Cash Flow	1.15B	-23.41M	-1.33B	-706.57M	-651.25M	880.29M

China New City Commercial Development Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1321, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.57, below the 50-day MA of 0.65, and below the 200-day MA of 0.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1321.

China New City Commercial Development Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
1321	61 Neutral	HK$1.03B	11.41	1.84%	―	-54.44%	120.18%
0563	52 Neutral	HK$1.51B	-2.54	-4.51%	―	23.54%	-204.92%
0230	46 Neutral	HK$3.28B	-1.07	-114.48%	―	-26.58%	-40.96%
1238	43 Neutral	HK$1.14B	-0.18	-17.55%	―	-11.33%	-7.70%
0095	42 Neutral	HK$1.65B	-0.25	-28.76%	―	-58.04%	-65.03%
1668	41 Neutral	HK$1.22B	-0.14	―	―	―	―

China New City Commercial Development Ltd Corporate Events

China New City Group Reshapes Nomination Committee With Two New Appointments

China New City Group Limited has adjusted the composition of its Nomination Committee, appointing independent non-executive director Mr Lam Yau Yiu and executive director Ms Chen Jing as new members with effect from 30 December 2025. The change strengthens the company’s corporate governance framework by broadening representation on the committee responsible for overseeing board appointments and succession planning, which may enhance oversight, independence and transparency for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1321) stock is a Hold with a HK$0.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China New City Commercial Development Ltd stock, see the HK:1321 Stock Forecast page.

China New City Group Sets Out Board and Committee Structure

China New City Group Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, naming Shi Nanlu as chief executive officer and executive director, and Shi Zhongan as non-executive chairperson, alongside executive directors Jin Jianrong and Chen Jing, and independent non-executive directors Xu Chengfa, Lam Yau Yiu and Yuan Yuan. The company also detailed the allocation of responsibilities across its key board committees—Audit, Remuneration, Nomination and Corporate Governance—clarifying that independent directors hold chair roles on several committees, while CEO Shi Nanlu chairs the Corporate Governance Committee, a structure aimed at delineating oversight functions and reinforcing governance transparency for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1321) stock is a Hold with a HK$0.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China New City Commercial Development Ltd stock, see the HK:1321 Stock Forecast page.

China New City Group Formalises Nomination Committee Governance and Diversity Requirements

China New City Group Limited has formalised the terms of reference for its Board Nomination Committee, originally established by board resolution on 31 May 2014, setting out its composition and governance framework. The committee must comprise at least three directors, with a majority being independent non-executive directors and at least one member of a different gender, and will be chaired by either the board chairman or an independent non-executive director, with the company secretary acting as its secretary. This move codifies the company’s nomination governance structure, signals heightened attention to board independence and gender diversity, and aligns its board practices more closely with prevailing corporate governance standards, factors of interest to investors and other stakeholders concerned with oversight and board composition.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1321) stock is a Hold with a HK$0.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China New City Commercial Development Ltd stock, see the HK:1321 Stock Forecast page.