Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $666.53M
• Dividend Yield: 9.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 514.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 18.56%
• EPS Growth: -21.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 131,464,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 515,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 514,156
• PEG Ratio: 0.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.36
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.18
• 1Y Price Target: $5.50
• Price Target Upside: 8.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $488.28M

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(8.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is primarily held back by volatile fundamentals and reduced confidence from inconsistencies in the most recent annual financial dataset, despite solid operating cash flow and generally manageable leverage. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but a mid-to-higher P/E). Earnings call tone is constructive with moderated growth and a clearer free-cash-flow pathway, but price/basis and cost headwinds remain meaningful risks.

Positive Factors

Sustained Production Growth

Material, repeatable production growth expands the cash-flow base and improves per-unit fixed-cost absorption. Growth driven by new wells and high activity means volumes, not just prices, are supporting scale, which strengthens long-run revenue resilience across commodity cycles.

Operator-Partnership Capital Model

Evolving into a capital-allocator via operator partnerships gives Granite Ridge scalable exposure to high-return Permian inventory without operating overhead. This model can accelerate growth while limiting fixed operating expense, improving return-on-capital if partner execution remains strong.

Gas Realization Enhancement Project

A contracted power project that raises gas realizations materially reduces Waha-basis exposure for covered volumes. Structural uplift to realized gas prices can sustainably improve margins and cash flow on Permian gas production once online in 2027.

Negative Factors

Commodity & Basis Exposure

Significant exposure to regional price differentials (notably Permian Waha) and weak commodity realizations can structurally depress revenue and margins despite volume growth. Persistent basis weakness would curtail cash flow and limit the durability of dividend and reinvestment plans.

Rising LOE and Service Costs

Increasing lease operating and service costs (e.g., saltwater disposal) erode per-unit margins. For a non-operated owner, limited control of on-the-ground cost inflation makes higher LOE a persistent headwind to free cash flow and dividend sustainability.

Financial-Reporting Inconsistencies

Apparent anomalies in recent annual financials undermine trend visibility and forecasting confidence. Inconsistent revenue/earnings and balance-sheet shifts complicate covenant and leverage assessment, raising the risk that true cash generation and leverage are obscured by one-offs or reporting issues.

Granite Ridge Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. manages private funds with interests in areas of the Midland, Delaware, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, and Haynesville play. It invests in oil and gas exploration and production. The company is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Granite Ridge Resources generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is centered on the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids to various customers, including refiners, marketers, and utilities. Key revenue streams include the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its owned and operated wells, as well as revenue from leasing its mineral rights to third parties for exploration. Significant partnerships with industry players for joint ventures and service agreements further bolster its earnings potential, allowing for shared resources and expertise in drilling and production operations. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices and strategic asset management play crucial roles in influencing the company's overall profitability.

Granite Ridge Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating cash flow is consistently strong and leverage is generally manageable, but results are cyclical with volatile/often negative free cash flow. The latest annual dataset shows major internal inconsistencies (e.g., zero revenue alongside positive earnings and unusually large equity vs. assets), reducing confidence in trend and profitability signals.

Income Statement

Results show meaningful volatility. Revenue expanded sharply in 2021–2022, then declined in 2023–2024 and fell to zero in 2025 (annual), making profitability signals less reliable in the most recent period. Margins were very strong in 2021–2022 and still positive in 2023–2024, but 2020 was loss-making and 2025 shows negative gross profit despite positive EBIT and net income—an inconsistency that raises data-quality and/or one-time item concerns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is generally conservative: debt-to-equity stayed low through 2023 and remains moderate in 2024, while equity is sizable. However, debt stepped up in 2024 (vs. 2023), and 2025 shows total assets collapsing to a level far below prior years while equity remains very large—another major consistency red flag that limits confidence in balance-sheet trend analysis. Returns on equity were strong in 2021–2022, then cooled in 2023–2024.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistently strong across the period, with operating cash flow comfortably covering reported earnings in each year shown. Free cash flow, however, has been volatile and often negative (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024), before swinging sharply positive in 2025 (annual). This pattern suggests either heavy reinvestment periods and/or working-capital/capex timing swings, which increases variability in cash available for shareholder returns.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	450.31M	380.03M	394.07M	497.42M	290.19M
Gross Profit	122.15M	120.03M	145.18M	316.37M	151.13M
EBITDA	306.84M	219.97M	271.56M	382.94M	205.50M
Net Income	24.35M	18.76M	81.10M	262.34M	108.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.19B	1.04B	927.10M	794.78M	547.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.85M	41.20M	60.86M	50.83M	11.85M
Total Debt	17.50M	205.00M	110.00M	0.00	51.10M
Total Liabilities	587.12M	401.13M	255.46M	130.53M	72.32M
Stockholders Equity	605.76M	635.35M	671.64M	664.25M	474.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-122.84M	-71.26M	-56.33M	111.70M	-38.10M
Operating Cash Flow	296.41M	275.73M	302.87M	346.39M	181.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-409.81M	-310.77M	-356.68M	-230.56M	-186.02M
Financing Cash Flow	118.82M	33.72M	13.41M	-76.85M	8.49M

Granite Ridge Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRNT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.06, above the 50-day MA of 4.78, and below the 200-day MA of 5.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRNT.

Granite Ridge Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REPX	78 Outperform	$718.20M	3.47	28.10%	5.96%	-2.43%	-28.19%
VTS	68 Neutral	$791.56M	28.68	3.86%	11.72%	6.23%	-64.88%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GRNT	65 Neutral	$666.53M	25.18	5.74%	9.36%	18.56%	-21.43%
INR	63 Neutral	$1.12B	―	60.84%	―	―	―

Granite Ridge Resources Corporate Events

Granite Ridge Reports 2025 Results, Shifts Capital Strategy

On March 5, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a 27% year-on-year increase in quarterly production to 35,120 Boe per day and a 28% full-year production increase to 31,984 Boe per day, even as it recorded a fourth-quarter net loss of $25.1 million. The company invested $401 million in 2025 capital expenditures, added significant new locations—especially in the Permian Basin—maintained relatively low leverage with net debt at 1.2 times Adjusted EBITDAX, and signaled that 2026 guidance will emphasize moderated production growth, closer alignment of development spending with cash flow, and continued capital returns to shareholders via dividends.

Management framed 2025 as a pivotal year in which Granite Ridge accelerated its shift from a traditional non-operated model toward a capital allocator role built around operated partnerships, executing more than 50 such transactions and adding about 100 net locations since 2023. This evolution, combined with disciplined underwriting of projects to targeted returns at current strip pricing, is intended to reduce commodity price and acquisition risk, enhance control over development cadence, and position the company as a scalable, resilient platform capable of delivering durable shareholder value across commodity cycles.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRNT) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Ridge Resources stock, see the GRNT Stock Forecast page.

Granite Ridge Resources Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On February 4, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources’ board approved the appointment of veteran energy finance executive Ronald “Kyle” Kettler as Chief Financial Officer, effective February 9, 2026, succeeding Kim Weimer, who will remain Chief Accounting Officer. Kettler, who brings more than 25 years of experience across energy-focused lending, capital markets and investing at firms including Chambers Energy Management and Lehman Brothers, will oversee the company’s financial operations and play a key leadership role in shaping its financial and business strategy. Under a three-year employment agreement with automatic one-year renewals, he will receive a $450,000 base salary, performance-based bonus eligibility, participation in Granite Ridge’s incentive and benefit plans, and a detailed severance and change-in-control package, including up to three times salary and bonus and accelerated vesting of equity in certain termination scenarios. In connection with his appointment, the board approved a one-time equity package comprising $1.5 million in performance-based restricted stock units, vesting subject to long-term performance goals through 2032, and $500,000 in time-based restricted stock vesting on the fifth anniversary of his start date, signaling a strong emphasis on long-term value creation and alignment with shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRNT) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Ridge Resources stock, see the GRNT Stock Forecast page.

Granite Ridge Resources Amends Management Services Agreement

On December 10, 2025, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. amended its Management Services Agreement with Grey Rock Administration, LLC, extending the term to April 30, 2031, and increasing the service fee from $10 million to $11.75 million, with potential further increases based on CPI adjustments. Additionally, on December 12, 2025, Granite Ridge Ventures, a subsidiary of Granite Ridge Resources, entered into a power capacity commitment arrangement with Conduit Bravo LLC, aligning with similar transactions by third parties.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRNT) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Ridge Resources stock, see the GRNT Stock Forecast page.