Genesco (GCO) Risk Analysis

Our financial results are significantly impacted by the effective tax rates of both our domestic and international operations. Future changes in tax laws could materially impact our effective tax rate. Other factors, such as changes in the mix of earnings in countries with differing statutory tax rates, changes in permitted deductions, interpretations, policies and treaties and the outcome of income tax audits in various jurisdictions, may result in higher taxes, lower profitability and increased volatility in our financial results. In addition, changes in the tax laws of foreign jurisdictions may arise as a result of the Pillar Two ("Pillar Two") Global Anti-Base Erosion model rules that were released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2021. The OECD continues to release guidance and in many of the countries implementing the Pillar Two rule, the first component of the Pillar Two rule became effective in 2024, with the second component expected to come into effect in 2025. It is possible that the Pillar Two rule could adversely impact our effective tax rate in future periods. Additionally, administrative guidance with respect to tax law can be incomplete or vary from legislative intent, and therefore the application of tax law is uncertain. While we believe our reported positions comply with relevant tax laws and regulations, taxing authorities could interpret the application of certain laws and regulations differently. We continue to expect the United States Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service to issue regulations and other guidance that could have a material impact on our effective tax rate in future periods.

Our shareholders may from time to time engage in proxy solicitations, advance shareholders proposals or otherwise attempt to affect changes or acquire control over the Company. Activist shareholder activities could adversely affect our business because responding to proxy contests and reacting to other actions by activist shareholders can be costly and time-consuming, disrupt our operations and divert the attention of management and our employees. For example, we have retained, and may in the future, retain the services of various professionals to advise us on activist shareholder matters, including legal, financial and communication advisors, the costs of which may negatively impact our future financial results. In addition, perceived uncertainties as to our future direction, strategy or leadership created as a consequence of activist shareholders initiatives may result in the loss of potential business opportunities, harm our ability to attract new investors, customers, and employees, and cause our stock price to experience periods of volatility or stagnation.

Borrowings under our credit facility bear interest at varying rates and expose us to interest rate risk. If interest rates were to increase, our debt service obligations on the variable rate indebtedness referred to above would increase even if the principal amount borrowed remained the same, and our net income and cash flows will correspondingly decrease. Additionally, in connection with the Intercontinental Exchange Benchmark Administration's announced phase-out of the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate ("LIBOR"), we amended our credit facility to, among other things, replace LIBOR with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate ("SOFR"), the Sterling Overnight Index Average ("SONIA") and the Euro Interbank Offered Rate ("EURIBOR").

Acquisitions have been a component of our growth strategy and we expect that in the future we may engage in acquisitions or launch new businesses to grow our revenues and meet our other strategic objectives. If acquisitions are not successfully integrated with our business, our ongoing operations could be adversely affected. Additionally, acquisitions or new businesses may not achieve desired profitability objectives or result in any anticipated successful expansion of the businesses or concepts, causing lower than expected earnings and cash flow and potentially requiring impairment of goodwill and other intangibles. Although we review and analyze assets or companies we acquire, such reviews are subject to uncertainties and may not reveal all potential risks. Additionally, although we attempt to obtain protective contractual provisions, such as representations, warranties and indemnities, in connection with acquisitions, we cannot offer assurance that we can obtain such provisions in our acquisitions or that they will fully protect us from unforeseen costs of, or liabilities associated with, the acquisitions. We may also incur significant costs and diversion of management time and attention in connection with pursuing possible acquisitions even if the acquisition is not ultimately consummated. Additionally, we have in the past and may in the future divest assets or businesses. Following any such divestitures, we may retain or incur liabilities or costs relating to our previous ownership of the assets or business that we sell. Any required payments on retained liabilities or indemnification obligations with respect to past or future asset or business divestitures could have a material adverse effect on our business or results of operations. Dispositions may also involve our continued financial involvement in the divested business, such as through transition services agreements and guarantees. Under these arrangements, performance by the divested businesses or conditions outside our control could adversely affect our business and results of operations. Further, acquisitions and dispositions are often structured such that the purchase price paid or received by us, as applicable, is subject to post-closing adjustments, whether as a result of net working capital adjustments, contingent payments (i.e., earn-outs) or otherwise. Any such adjustments could result in a material change in the consideration paid to or received by us, as applicable, in such transactions.

Our ability to remain competitive is dependent upon our continued ability to secure and protect trademarks, patents and other intellectual property rights in the U.S. and internationally for all of our businesses. We rely on a combination of trade secret, patent, trademark, copyright and other laws, license agreements and other contractual provisions and technical measures to protect our intellectual property rights; however, some countries do not protect intellectual property rights to the same extent as the U.S. Our business could be significantly harmed if we are not able to protect our intellectual property, or if a court found us to be infringing on others' intellectual property rights. Any future intellectual property lawsuits or threatened lawsuits in which we are involved, either as a plaintiff or as a defendant, could cost us a significant amount of time and money and distract management's attention from operating our business. If we do not prevail on any intellectual property claims, then we may have to change our manufacturing processes, products or trade names, any of which could reduce our profitability.

As part of normal operations, we and our third-party vendors and partners, receive and maintain confidential and personally identifiable information ("PII") about our customers and employees, and confidential financial, intellectual property, and other information. We regard the protection of our customer, employee, and company information as critical. The regulatory environment surrounding information security and privacy is very demanding, with the frequent imposition of new and changing requirements some of which involve significant costs to implement and significant penalties if not followed properly. Despite our efforts and technology to secure our computer network and systems, a cybersecurity breach, whether targeted, random, or inadvertent, and whether at the hands of cyber criminals, hackers, rogue employees or other persons, may occur and could go undetected for a period of time, resulting in a material disruption of our computer network, a loss of information valuable to our business, including without limitation customer or employee PII, and/or theft. A similar cybersecurity breach to the computer networks and systems of our third-party vendors and partners, including those that are cloud-based, over which we have no control, may occur, and could lead to a material disruption of our computer network and/or the areas of our business that are dependent on the support, services and other products provided by our third-party vendors and partners. Additionally, the rapid evolution and increased adoption of machine learning and artificial intelligence ("AI") is further increasing risks in this area, including by making fraud detection more difficult, particularly with detection devices that use voice recognition or authentication. Our computer networks and our business may be adversely affected by such a breach of our third-party vendors and partners, which could result in a decrease in our e-commerce sales and/or a loss of information valuable to our business, including, without limitation, PII of customers or employees. Such a cyber-incident could result in any of the following: - theft, destruction, loss, misappropriation, or release of confidential financial and other data, intellectual property, customer awards, or customer or employee information, including PII such as payment card information, email addresses, passwords, social security numbers, home addresses, or health information;- operational or business delays resulting from the disruption of our e-commerce sites, computer networks or the computer networks of our third-party vendors and partners and subsequent material clean-up and mitigation costs and activities;- negative publicity resulting in material reputation or brand damage with our customers, vendors, third-party partners or industry peers;- loss of sales, including those generated through our e-commerce websites; and - governmental penalties, fines and/or enforcement actions, payment and industry penalties and fines and/or class action and other lawsuits. Any of the above risks, individually or in aggregate, could materially damage our reputation and result in lost sales, governmental and payment card industry fines, and/or class action and other lawsuits. Although we carry cybersecurity insurance, that insurance may not be extensive enough or adequate in scope of coverage or amount to reimburse us for damages we may incur. Further, a significant breach of federal, state, provincial, local or international privacy laws could have a material adverse effect on our reputation.

We do not manufacture the merchandise we sell, and our Genesco Brands Group business is dependent on third-party licenses. Accordingly, our product supply is subject to our ability to renew our license agreements or identify new licenses and the ability and willingness of third-party suppliers to deliver merchandise we order on time and in the quantities and of the quality we need. In addition, a material portion of our retail footwear sales consists of products marketed under brands belonging to unaffiliated vendors, which have fashion significance to our customers. If those vendors were to decide not to sell to us or to limit the availability of their products to us, or if they become unable because of economic conditions, pandemics, work stoppages, labor shortages, strikes, political unrest and civil disturbances, raw materials supply disruptions, or any other reason to supply us with products, we could be unable to offer our customers the products they wish to buy and could lose their business. Additionally, manufacturers are required to remain in compliance with certain wage, labor and environment-related laws, regulations and policies. Delayed compliance or failure to comply with such laws, regulations and policies by our vendors could adversely affect our ability to obtain products generally or at favorable costs, affecting our overall ability to maintain and manage inventory levels.

The success of our business depends to a significant extent upon the level of consumer spending in general and on our product categories. A number of factors may affect the level of consumer spending on merchandise that we offer, including, among other things: - general economic and industry conditions, including the risks associated with recessions or other macroeconomic conditions and pressures such as inflationary impacts and supply chain challenges;- weather conditions;- energy costs, which affect gasoline and home heating prices;- the level of consumer debt;- pricing of products, including the impact of tariffs;- interest rates;- inflation;- infectious diseases;- tax rates, refunds and policies;- war, terrorism and other geopolitical hostilities; and - consumer confidence in future economic conditions. Adverse economic conditions and any related decrease in consumer demand for discretionary items could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition. We sell generally discretionary items. Reduced consumer confidence and spending may result in reduced demand for discretionary items and may force us to take inventory markdowns, which may decrease sales and make expense leverage difficult to achieve. In addition, inflationary cost pressure on the products we sell might limit our ability to pass on cost increases resulting in gross margin impact or reduced demand. Demand can also be influenced by other factors beyond our control. Moreover, while we believe that our operating cash flows and borrowing capacity under committed lines of credit will be adequate for our anticipated cash requirements, if the economy were to experience a downturn, if one or more of our revolving credit banks were to fail to honor its commitments under our credit lines or if we were unable to draw on our credit lines for any reason, we could be required to modify our operations for decreased cash flow or to seek alternative sources of liquidity, and such alternative sources might not be available to us on favorable terms, if at all. These same factors could impact our wholesale customers, limiting their ability to buy or pay for merchandise offered by us.

The operations of our retail stores, corporate offices, distribution centers, digital operations and supply chain, as well as the operations of our third-party partners, including vendors and manufacturers, are vulnerable to disruption from climate change, natural disasters, pandemics and other infectious disease outbreaks and other unexpected events. In addition to impacts on global operations, these events could result in the potential loss of customers and revenues due to mandatory or voluntary store closures, delay or cancellation of merchandise deliveries, reduced consumer confidence or changes in consumers' discretionary spending habits. These events could reduce the availability or quality of the materials used to manufacture our merchandise, which could cause delays in responding to consumer demand resulting in the potential loss of customers and revenues or we may incur increased costs to meet demand and may not be able to pass all or a portion of higher costs on to our customers, which could adversely affect our gross margin and results of our operations. In addition, historically, our operations have been seasonal, and extreme weather conditions, including natural disasters, unseasonable weather or changes in weather patterns, may diminish demand for our seasonal merchandise and could also influence consumer preferences and fashion trends, consumer traffic and shopping habits. In addition, we may incur costs that exceed our applicable insurance coverage for any necessary repairs to property damage or business disruption resulting from climate or weather conditions.

Trade restrictions, including increased tariffs, safeguards or quotas, on footwear, apparel and accessories could increase the cost or reduce the supply of merchandise available to us. We source footwear, apparel and accessory products from foreign manufacturers located in Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Pakistan, Portugal, Peru, Spain, Turkey and Vietnam. Our retail operations, excluding Johnston & Murphy, sell primarily branded products from third parties who source primarily overseas. The investments we are making to develop our sourcing capabilities may not be successful and may, in turn, have an adverse impact on our financial position and results of operations. There are quotas and trade restrictions on certain categories of goods and apparel from China and countries that are not subject to the applicable World Trade Organization Agreement, which could have a significant impact on our sourcing patterns in the future. In addition, political uncertainty in the United States may result in significant changes to U.S. trade policies, treaties and tariffs, including trade policies and tariffs regarding goods imported from China, Canada and Mexico. Existing and potential future tariffs on certain imported products could result in an increase in prices for those products. These developments, or the perception that any of them could occur, may have a material adverse effect on global economic conditions and the stability of global financial markets, and may significantly reduce global trade. Any of these factors could depress economic activity, restrict our sourcing from suppliers and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We cannot predict whether any of the countries in which our merchandise is currently or may be manufactured in the future will be subject to additional trade restrictions imposed by the U.S. and foreign governments, nor can we predict the likelihood, type or effect of any such restrictions. Trade restrictions, including increased tariffs or quotas, embargoes, safeguards and customs restrictions against items we source from foreign manufacturers could increase the cost, delay shipping or reduce the supply of products available to us or may require us to modify our current business practices, any of which could hurt our profitability. If we are unable to pass along increased costs to our customers, our gross margins could be adversely affected. Additionally, tariffs may cause us to shift production to other countries, resulting in significant costs and disruption to our business. We rely on our suppliers to manufacture and ship the products they produce for us in a timely and cost-effective manner. We also rely on the free flow of goods through open and operational ports worldwide. Labor disputes and other disruptions at various ports or at our suppliers could increase costs for us and delay our receipt of merchandise, particularly if these disputes result in work slowdowns, lockouts, strikes or other disruptions.